Harley Lover

A lot to unpack from the 'fireside chat', most of which has not been commented on here. Points of interest: Farley believes the Direct Sales Model (Tesla) will be forced to change as a critical mass of their vehicles are on the road in a market: At the same time, Farley reiterates that Ford must move closer to the direct model via its dealers:

Louisville closure extended to March 6, 4th consecutive week; good news is that software issue with instrument cluster is solved: https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/ford-extends-downtime-louisville-assembly-until-march-6?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20230224&utm_content=article3-headline

Here's a transcript of the 'fireside chat' - I hope everyone reads through this and come back with commentary and thoughts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578609-ford-motor-company-f-presents-wolfe-research-global-auto-auto-tech-and-auto-consumer

UPDATE: https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/ford-extends-downtime-louisville-assembly-over-escape-software-issue

GM sold 854 Hummer EVs in 2022. Your disappointment is misplaced.

More specifics: https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/2023-ford-escape-production-idled-over-software-issue?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D64909206779714911340930067206182659056|MCORGID%3D138FFF2554E6E7220A4C98C6%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1676489208&CSAuthResp=1%3A%3A248300%3A20957%3A24%3Asuccess%3AE5FFE883FB17C7FD769C0882818D0FCF

He didn't say "strategically important vehicle", he said "our most strategically important vehicle". The more I think about it, it almost has to be truck related, as in F150. The F150 is "the Franchise", the profit generator that drives the company. That, to me, is the definition of "most strategically important vehicle". If they don't protect the franchise, everything else is a moot point. I've read another interview with him recently in which he spoke of the Lightning and said it was too bad it was so close to the current F150 style-wise (and contrasting that look with what will come from Blue Oval City truck-wise). My guess in the quote above he's speaking about whatever will come out of BOC, which he's already said publicly will be different from the current F150 style-wise.

The article title is somewhat clickbaity, but there is some substance there: So: "our most strategically important EV" and "skunkworks team developing this in secret"? What could that be? Would it be a halo vehicle? Or a permutation of the F150? What does everyone think?

From the link: My take is that he's saying Ford will be adopting some 'best practices' they have identified in the competition, in the case of simplification perhaps moving towards 'gigapress' castings to both simplify and also improve quality. Gigapress certainly meets the description of 'radical simplification'. I agree with the posters here that he seems to be saying smaller batteries with less range, but 2 things: 1) those products could still be designed to accept a longer range battery (ala MME), the better to allow the consumer to decide what range they want and 2) perhaps (a big maybe) he's anticipating some fruit from Ford's investments in solid state batteries which would allow Ford to design future vehicles with smaller batteries that maintain longer range relative to the size of the battery. I think it's also important to remember the audience to whom he was speaking: the investment community. He's compelled to pitch cost savings, etc. to this group. There is probably much more going on with product planning that he did not reveal to this group because it would 'wooosh' right over their heads. They only want to hear about cost efficiency and so on.

GM are behind in their output and sales goals: More here: https://www.electrive.com/2022/10/27/general-motors-delays-us-electrification-goals-by-half-a-year/ The cited article is from the end of October last year. Who knows if their timeline has slipped further back since...

The site was apparently chosen, and now Ford are seeking a new site.

Looks like Ford are willing to tell Bronco order holders to "F off" if they will whore themselves out for $2500: https://www.carsdirect.com/deals-articles/ford-is-paying-bronco-buyers-to-change-their-minds

Do it quick or do it right. Another Hackett decision.

Yes.

It's different because some of the minerals for batteries are not as universally available as oil, and depending on the country, it can take a decade or more to gain regulatory approvals to open a new mine.

Agree with both of you; I'll take it a step further and say this and the Avala/rado styling tend to legitimize the styling of the Honda truck pretender - and that's a bad thing in my book. I can envision an scenario in which Ford offer both a 'traditional' cab and bed type EV truck and also something along the lines of the Ram and Chevy to cover both spectrums market wise. I suppose there is potentially a reset occurring with regard to truck styling, but I'm not convinced for the reasons you both have noted (sales failures for Chevy and Honda with this styling). I hope Ford make good decisions in the protection of 'the Franchise'.

I generally avoid these conversations because minds/positions are never changed. I have to challenge one thing in this post: "the market...already made the decision"; on what basis can that statement be supported? If EVs are currently 5% of the market, and will be 20% of the market in 2025 (not sure about the percentages, just using these figures for the sake of the point), then by definition the "market" is speaking clearly in favor of IC propulsion based on the stated premise that the "market already made the decision".

Anecdotally, I recently read that due to ongoing issues with chips and other supply chain issues, GM have pushed back their initial target for the onset of 'ongoing annual EV production' from end of '23 to mid '24 (I think I read initial target is annualized production of 5-600k units but then growing annually as more factories come online). Ford might inadvertently continue to benefit from supply chain issues at GM effectively slowing their progress in moving more fully to EV sales.

To your point, I think Ford have gone about as far "in" on EVs as they can under current economic conditions (and apparently what they expect for 2023). There might be one more battery plant announcement for Mexico, but I wonder if an internal decision has been made to hold off on further investments until the depth of the expected 2023 recession is known.

Agree - limited geofenced areas.

You're being too optimistic.

Again, Bronco is a Ford 'icon'. It makes zero sense to move it to F150 styling cues. If anything, Ford will add future products to the Bronco family that share its styling, ala Bronco Sport. That said, Ford have done some stupid things over the years, so you might end up being correct.

What is the reason for the obvious decontenting on Ford products that multiple posters have observed over recent years? If it isn't cost driven by Finance, then what is the motive?

Bronco pickup!!! <hyperventilating>