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Everything posted by jpd80

  1. Or closed which is more likely….I have a feeling that will become obvious during transition as Chicago sheds shifts and employees, Louisville is already on reduced output, imagine what happens when Oakville starts up…. Ford was surprised with the response to Lightning, I suspect that will be repeated with BEV Explorer and Aviator, people wanting to move to BEVs faster than Ford is planning, fun times ahead for Ford…
  2. Why would converting those ICE plants be needed if their BEV successors are being built elsewhere?
  3. jpd80

    November '21 Sales

    Canada is still reporting as quarterly sales but in Q3 F Series was over 29,100 sales (48,000 in 2020) so that suggests to me around 10,000 to 12,000 sales for November ( my regular source fails me atm)
  4. jpd80

    November '21 Sales

    Just keeping to US sales, what sells in Canada or Middle East goes to their tallies.
  5. That’s roughly 12 months after the global version goes on sale… I remember the current US Ranger was given upgrades over the current global Ranger because it had to run a year longer.
  6. The reason Ford said Spring is because they don’t want to promise Q1 when it’s Q2 or actually falls to early Q3. GM Zero is busy producing its 65,000 Hummer orders, I can see EV Silverado production going from late 2022 to early 2023 as GM works hard to fill those $100k Hummer orders, they can’t rush those out.
  7. jpd80

    November '21 Sales

    Any month where F. Series sales are 60,000 is not too bad, at least Ford has its priorities are right….
  8. Hers the funny thing, a while back, Ford was saying that the cost of building a BEV was now close to that of an ICE/Hybrid but I haven seen them repeat them hat claim recently Lets also keep in mind that the Mustang Mach E started out as the E C-Max and clearly intended as an affordable utility Im not blaming Ford for playing to its strengths, what I am concerned about is its continual misreading/ underestimating of BEV interest and what those people are willing to pay. How many times will it take for Farley to be shocked before Ford senior management gets that they are behind in an important game
  9. The concern I have is that predictively, both GM and Ford are playing to their strengths with large BEV trucks and SUVs to ensure dominance and profitability - that’s fine but what’s not OK is that Ford won’t have affordable compact BEVs in production and on sale before about 2026. That’s another four years of marking time with gasoline and hybrids in segments where Tesla, VW and the Chinese are already active……..can Ford really afford to give its competitors such a big head start? I think it’s a huge blind spot and something Ford management will live to regret, Oakville should be switching to BEVs now.
  10. OK let’s try this, Knowing what you do about buyer preferences in North America, how do you think Chinese EVs would be received? Also, going on your perception of European buyers, do you really think that the EU will bend over and let China walk all over its local brands by having no protection in place? While all should be concerned by the massive rise of EVs in China, that should be tempered with the knowledge that selling vehicles is a lot more complex than mobile phones and without the emotional connection/gotta have, it’s just another car company with all the the issues of winning trust and still being there a year later.
  11. The point is that there a lot of buyers willing to buy EVs that do work for them and their situation, you’re not going to convince a non-buyer to purchase an EV when it doesn’t work for them. The most open buyers are those with two or more cars in a household, if one is a commuter vehicle, then maybe an EV or PHEV works in that situation I suspect those massive Chinese EV sales are are mostly (70%) being directed to online ride share companies that are vertically integrated - owned by the particular car company. So most selling cars to themselves…….
  12. That’s the the thing, the contrived debt alarm for both GM and Ford makes them look much worse than they are whike Tesla’s massively inflated market capitalisation makes it look much better than it is. A total distortion of the Altman Z Score to suit a certain narrative……..BEV fans are eating it up.
  13. And people still seem to be paying those higher prices. I wonder if those bargain price ICE car segments are all set to die or increase pricing through electrification in order to survive. I’m not so sure that pricing will go back to pre pandemic levels now that manufacturers see how tighter inventories keep pricing higher. The cat may be out of the bag now….. I know that wasn’t exactly your point above but if ICEs that make little or no profit increase in price and incentives go away, it makes the gap to BEVs a lot less.
  14. As mentioned earlier, Farley said the issue was final assembly room, I suspect that bzcat was correct regarding KCAP being included but we’ll see…
  15. At least Farley has recognised the significance of responding quickly and actually doing something including spending serious money to jack up production, let’s see how Ford goes when they know they have a slam dunk production and sales deal.
  16. As we saw with the Tesla 3, you can almost guarantee that Tesla will only be building high series cyber trucks as a priority and even Ford has a propensity to prioritise rich trim mixes in the first year of a new model. The $39k starting price might be a factor in building strong reservation but I have a hunch that it’s more to do with comparable pricing with ICE F150 and maybe the super long line over at Cybertruck.
  17. BEVs are definitely being pushed hard by some groups, certain vehicles will do well and probably serve as a litmus test for other buyers sitting on the fence. IMO, more could and should be done with hybrids and PHEVs as a way of introducing more folks to the immediate benefits of hybrids. And you’re right, the embrace of Chinese EVs in Europe and elsewhere is yet to be seen, a lot of convincing for folks wove never seen/heard of most of them. I think at first, European and American buyers will stick with known home brands, China takeover isn’t a done deal by any means.
  18. Even with the modified plan, they’re only looking at around 2,000/mth in 2022, maybe 4,500/mth in 2023 and 6,600/ mth in 2024. To be serious with delivering the expected amounts, they need to be around 10,000/mth but I don’t see that happening for a number of reasons, the main ones being the supply of batteries from SKI and availability of frames, let alone production space - the facilities they picked at Dearborn is just too busy to accommodate that kind of increase in line speed. I suppose it’s possible but it sounds like a massive uptick unless they build at two locations (KCAP?) They went out fishing and landed a whale
  19. All Amoroks will be built by Ford in South Africa, it might be easier to ship them to South America or maybe not……..
  20. His previous posts were a lot angrier and contained expletives, it’s all about China is coming and they will take everything. Sandy is just as frustrated by Ford and GM as some of us here, they seem to be taking too much time getting going with EV and ignoring the value end like Oakville MEBs. He would be 100% right if automakers were doing absolutely nothing but I wonder if that’s a foregone conclusion for North America. I can see Europe being far more open to imported Chinese EVs but the rapid embrace envisages may be over dramatised. Yes, lots of people are open to buying EVs but maybe there’s still time as the rollout of vehicles and charging infrastructure won’t be an instant thing. That’s not to dampen down enthusiasm where products like Lightning promise to bring lots of new buyers, balance in all things.
  21. What’s absolutely hilarious is that Ford seems shocked at the huge response to Lightning and now have to scramble to increase production. They were until recently unaware of just how much the market has changed before their very eyes…. I think this is the crux of Sandy Munro’s concern about Ford and the other heritage automakers they’re doing the 1970s again
  22. None of the 200,000 Lightning reservations are being forced into a BEV, there’s lots of willing people out there. And I’m lead to believe, that 200,000 figure doesn’t include fleet orders, how many more will there be with $12,000 tax credit? I can’t wait to see what the response to a BEV Explorer/Aviator will be……..things are really looking good for Ford