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GrussGott

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Everything posted by GrussGott

  1. My exciting update is, I got a september build week! (and got a VIN about a month prior, ordered in mid Jan) With that, wondering what news others have?
  2. I've never thought of that! I have one, but use it exclusively with my android phone (and EarthMate, which has sadly stopped working well) ... with that, I don't how you could do it, but I guess I've never thought of it ... sorry for the useless reply, but please update the thread if you figure it out!
  3. I'm trying to be a new Navigator customer, so can't speak for Ford / Lincoln customers, but I buy a new car every 2-3 years and haven't got one off the lot in 15 years - every one has been a factory order.
  4. @Sunshine1124 @Sesha Welp, here's what happened to me FWIW: Jan 2022: placed the order for a pristine white BL L Navigator Feb 2022: got an email from lincoln confirming order May 2022: got an email from lincoln that my order was indefinitely delayed June 2022: dealer calls me, says the factory cancelled my order as it's no longer possible to order a white BL L Nav as they aren't building Ls anymore, no other options, game over, call Lincoln June 2022: I call the concierge a few times (learned this trick over the years w/BMW), get versions of "it's probably not cancelled, but it could be, but no orders have been cancelled to our knowledge" June 2022: I call the concierge a 4th time just to quad-check they can't see my exact order; person says they see the order, is for sure not cancelled, but call the dealer because that's all they can say June 2022: I call the dealer, but ask to speak with the sales manager; he finds my order, says its not cancelled, but has some "oddities" he doesn't understand, he'll get back to me June 2022: Two days later dealer calls me, and great news! I can order my Lincoln now. wait, don't I have an order? Oh. Right. He'll get back to me. June 2022: Next day, calls me, forget everything else they told me, I still have my order but now I can't get the SEP, rear massaging seats, or APA, but otherwise it's a go, same order, just have to wait 2-3 more months but I'm Priority 1! This Priority 1 thing is odd, because I also heard that during one of my concierge calls. That said, I have no VIN, no timeline, and no emails from Lincoln other than the earlier two. So, at this point, I'll just keep waiting and will probably also order a Yukon Ultimate XL whenever I can get SuperCruise ... which may arrive before the Nav ... too bad because I love the Nav and it'd be my first Ford / Lincoln. Anyway, +1 me on the list of people wishing Lincoln had more clear actionable information. No that doesn't mean a specific date, but it does mean: "we have your order, it's this, it's in our queue somewhere in this zone, and the current best estimate is somewhere in this time frame". If Lincoln can't tell you that minimum set of factory info, why have a concierge line for ordering customers?
  5. My dealer is telling me Ford is no longer building any Pristine White BL L, and offered to get me a black non-L but it's not what I need, so I'll call the concierge on Monday.
  6. I also got that email, and then my dealer called me and told me that, after 5 months, Ford rejected my order.
  7. The trick with the stock market is, it's not "buy at the lowest, sell at the highest" it's buy low, sell high, which is what $F is doing. (plus there's tax loss harvesting) Trying to time the market isn't a great long-term strategy.
  8. Boy, if Ford is trying to be woke, 13 years is a pretty fecking long snooze button!
  9. Ordered early Jan, got the first email confirming the order and then a 2nd saying no build date is available. Hey Ford:
  10. The whole point was & is, it's not an exception it is the rule: There are only 7 refineries with some small local exceptions like Maricopa county in AZ. Most stations, no matter the sign, are pumping out the same gas from the same truck from the same refinery - it's all Top Tier. And, you're not less likely to get hit with bad gas buying from Shell vs off-brand since it's all the same stuff (with some local exceptions). As for the OP, well probably the largest warning isn't about 87 octane, it's 85 octane in mountain states which Ford won't warranty.
  11. Just to try again for clarity on the details here: (1.) There are only ~7 refineries that service the entire US (2.) The refineries use ~1-3 contracted trucking companies to run all their routes (3.) Most all stations are independents, i.e., not owned by Chevron, Shell, etc (e.g., the largest operator in the US, 7/11, owns ~8% of stations) In short, the refineries aren't adding additives to this truckload and withholding it from that truckload - that just wouldn't make financial sense; In general there's one spigot and the trucks use it and everyone gets the same thing. Further, we know this is true because in 2012 when BP screwed up a batch of fuel it affected all brands & stations including BP, Marathon, Shell, Costco, Luke oil, Speedway, Mobil, Valero (former Citgo), and Meijer and many smaller brands. The reason was all these stations across the Chicago geographic area all get their fuel from one of two refineries no matter what brand name you buy it under. The BP Whiting refinery supplies ~70% and the Exon-Mobil refinery in Channahon supplies the other 30%. All deliveries to all brands of retail stations are done by two trucking companies, one of which is McMahon Transport Group. It was BP and McMahon that had to be tracked so they could find all the deliveries that got the bad batch of BP fuel (that bricked some vehicles); BP paid to fix all of the issues no matter what retail brand sold the fuel. They also gave all affected purchasers an additional $100 gift card. The websites are still up about that. NET-NET Top Tier is real, the additives are effective, but you're likely getting the same gas from any given station in any given area, even if it's an off-brand station (though they're all independents anyway). That said, there's probably some marginal benefit picking a major affiliate.
  12. From when? is this the first bump? When did you order? what's your order? Thanks!
  13. We'll see but I don't think anyone doubts that Farley gets it, he sees the landscape for what it is, he's got a plan to fix it, and it's a damn good plan. Most importantly Farley realizes that Tesla's production speed & efficiency far surpasses anything Ford has ever done and Tesla's direct engagement with the supply chain is radically different than anything Ford has ever done ... Tesla's "secret" nickle deal is a great case in point: instead of leaving it to cell suppliers, Tesla is going directly to the raw materials producers to secure resources and slowly producing the cells directly themselves or, at a minimum, to their spec (4680). Another example is Tesla's chip pivot; instead of buying the assembled circuit boards (or assembled modules), Tesla is buying the chips directly AND writing the firmware code that goes onto the chips that are then assembled onto boards. People laughed at Tesla for these moves 2 years ago but now everyone is trying to duplicate it. (1.) It's not about being a stan; any mediocre industry analyst looking at the data can see what's happening (2.) I don't like Tesla products, have never owned one, and don't own the stock other than via index - but I'm not blind either (3.) As for a $35k M3, Tesla doesn't need one and they DEFINITELY shouldn't want one; Tesla is supply limited and can't meet demand for their existing products - creating new products in that scenario is the road to bankruptcy. One business lesson I'll never forget is: of new businesses that go bankrupt, most do so at their highest point of profitability. The reason is because they get a hit, get supply limited, then try to make 50 new products, which requires all kinds of capital spend, then they catch up with demand, then demand slumps, then the bills start pouring in, then they have layoffs, then customer service falls, then demand falls further, then bankruptcy. Ford is taking the mixed platform path (vs GM who's building from scratch) for much the same reason: keep the capital spend as low as possible, go easy on new products, meet demand of your winners.
  14. Not really, unless you're using "elements" in the most general way as in "both assemble car bodies". Ford's approach has always been to outsource everything possible to suppliers and then lever the suppliers to take on the financial risk of carrying inventory, delivering it to them only when ready, and only paying for it after it's been built into a vehicle. This is how an accountant (i.e., Harvard MBA trained at MBB) would design auto assembly ... whereas Tesla is taking a first-principles approach where they control as many of the components as possible and eliminate as many steps as possible (e.g., the new front casting machine). This is why Tesla can put together a vehicle 3x faster and 30% cheaper than, say, Volkswagen ... and it's also why 3 years ago Tesla was the laughing stock of auto assembly & now they're the benchmark. Tesla had to prove it could work by standing up a new factory in 9 months and pumping out units cheaper & faster than any competitors. The only way for Ford to duplicate Tesla's productivity & efficiency is to wholly change their entire assembly mindset ... and then build that into a completely new factory with completely new workers ... which is why they're building Blue Oval City (and VW is building their new plant in Wolfsburg) This is also why Farley is saying Ford needs "radically different human talent" and why he put Doug Field (Apple / Tesla guy) in charge of his EV division - new blood, new mindset, new engineering, new factory, new processes, et al -------------------------- and just for history's sake, the way all the OEMs got into this mess was: (1.) Building non-serious "compliance cars" during the '00s & '10s (2.) Believing the cheapest path forward was mixed platform & mixed assembly (3.) Panicking & rushing products to market that are either obviously inferior (ID3) or too expensive or difficult to make (Mach-E) GM is the only OEM to build an EV platform from the ground up (Ultium) and factory to match (Factory ZERO) and they're about hit the market pretty big: * BrightDrop EV600 commercial van (for FedEx, WalMart, et al), delivered * 2024 Hummer - 65,000 pre-orders * 2023 Cadillac Lyriq - 230,000 interested buyers, starts production ... monday? * 2023 Chevy Silverado EV * 2023 GMC Sierra EV * 2023 Bolt CUV EV * 2023 Chevy Blazer EV * 2024 Chevy Equinox EV * 2025 Cadillac Celestiq EV Other Stuff * New wholly-owned EV GM brand to sell american made cars in China * GM's Chinese JVs (e.g., SAIC, FAW, et al) * GM's new commercial service org under Steve Hill * Cruise And * PureWatercraft - GM backed EV boats Ford & Farley have taken a different approach: rush products to market on mixed platforms/factories ... it's probably the right strategy for Ford at this point, but it's risky.
  15. Interesting - same decision, but for different reasons ... I looked at the X7 and Alpina XB7 and both have very nice interiors to look at, though I wouldn't say they're THAT much better than the Navigator, just somewhat (full disclosure I have a 2022 X5M and am partial to BMWs). The Cadillac is not my cup o tea at all, and the screens & gadgetry is meaningless to me but even ignoring that, which is subjective, where all of them lose to the Navigator is SPACE; All of them feel cramped compared to the 'Gator and the Nav's under-console front storage is a game changer. So, when it comes to looking at them, we may all prefer different things, but when it comes to USING them it's the Nav's cubbys & bins that win me over (though I wish the large console storage was split-opening. As for gadgets, as i noted, the Escaalade's screens are meaningless to me, but one of BMW's most useful gadgets for me is their app, MyBMW. I use it all of the time to monitor all aspects of the car including remote 3D view! This is especially useful if your car is parked in a ramp or valet as you can see an overhead 3D movable view of the car any time you want so you can check to see who's next to you, how much space there is, look for a break-in, etc. It also tells you gas, tires, maintenance, etc as well as lock the doors, start the car, start the climate control, open windows, etc. This is my first lincoln (and ford) so no idea if they have these features, but BMW's app is great!
  16. Generically I'd agree Lincoln needs to offer air suspension, though I'm not sure of the considerations of why they didn't ... adding the "look ahead" seems to have had an impact but, to your point, if someone is comparing like-to-like air suspension might seem like a missing luxe feature ... though the Escalade is also $20k more expensive. as an FYI, i'm not a Lincoln or Ford person and have been driving Audis & BMWs for the last 25 years (and just bought a 2022 BMW X5) ... but, after driving a rental Expedition Max, I decided to look a bit closer at full-size SUVs. After considering all of them, and comparing all of the features, I decided the Lincoln Navigator was the best product, so i placed an order. If I were buying it for others, honestly I'd have probably ordered the Escalade, but I'm buying it for me so, it's the Navigator.
  17. All the reviews I've seen have said the ride is equal to the escalade (some thought better) but they also liked the air suspension's ability to raise & lower. My first car with air suspension was the original audi allroad way back in the early 00s ... it was good, but more of a sport tune & since then I've drifted to sport side of ride so my butt is probably calibrated to that. I'd definitely rather err on the side of sure-footed versus floaty which many air suspensions I've tried seem to do. Only Porsche seems to know how to do a truck suspension right.
  18. I dunno if I'd care about any of these except air suspension ... though I had the option of that in my X5 and went with the sport suspension, but the 'Gator is a different vehicle ... but I still bet I'd skip it ? Digital rear view ... I'd have to try it to see if it was useful, and call me old fashioned but a good ole mirror seems preferable to me Nav map in the tach ... my X5 has the map between the gauges and in the head's up, that's useful! Night vision ... this has only ever worked for me if the vehicle is stopped and then I don't need it so never saw the benefit of it beyond a cool gadget Intercom ... hmmm ... even the 'Gator L doesn't seem large enough for an intercom! Refige ... this is an area where I'd DEFINITELY want my own and wouldn't want to take up precious cargo / storage space. I use a dometic which is awesome, 5 year warranty, sips power, and is portable so that'd be my high preference I'd be curious if/how/when anyone has other experiences / desires with these options.
  19. I like this one too for getting the driving experience https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODsAJgg6iEc
  20. Good points - I wonder if China is fixing that? Lincoln has had some tough years in 2020 and 2021 - hopefully this year will be a success with the Navigator ... I'm seeing press that Lincolns are some of the few vehicles still selling for under MSRP. This new Gator will need to be a quality success as another screwed up launch may be game over in the US
  21. No company in the history of auto making has ever made more margin per vehicle than Tesla is making right now at the scale they're doing it. In fact, Tesla is nearing software company margins on a manufacturered product; the numbers are crazy. Their capital leverage is completely bonkers right now and it's only getting better & better literally every month as their costs fall; oh, yeah, Tesla re-configs their lines monthly! And, yes, per the Q4 balance sheets, Tesla is not only more profitable than Ford or GM - they made more revenue (EBIT)! And, no, none of these parts of the same. I'm not sure how much automotive engineering experience you have, but if it's any, watch a Tesla tear-down compared to a Mach-E or ID.4 or really ANY other BEV; others are using 6' of hose and Tesla uses 6"; other are using 50 feet of wiring and Tesla is using 5 cm. And then there's the patented sheet metal stamping machines that Tesla custom engineered that basically stamp out 1 car body each cycle ... auto engineering is a game of grams BEFORE BEVs ... after them it's milligrams. For example, if Ford has to stamp out 10 body parts & weld them together over an hour ... while Tesla makes 1 stamp, a few welds, and is done in 10 minutes, then Tesla is 6x more productive than Ford , and you can see how parts ain't parts. Any company that thinks BEV parts are the same as ICE parts is a company about to go bankrupt. And any Tier 1 / 2 parts vendor that believes they'll be selling the same ICE parts for BEVs is also about to go bankrupt ... especially the gas tank makers. Entire supply chains are about to transform. Ford can compete & Farley seems to be the right guy at the right time ... but he also seems like a guy who knows if he fails it's over.
  22. That doesn't seem clear yet as none of those companies have proven to have cost-effective production scale; VW, as an example, is operating 3x-5x more expensive than the competition and have said they need a new Wolfsburg factory to improve their efficiency, something their board is dragging their feet on. That said, in the case of $100k+ body-on-frame SUVs, those are fairly small numbers, at least historically for Lincoln, so maybe it wouldn't be that big of lift and you're right?
  23. It's probably true that the UAW won't be given any new members; they'll have to earn them with appealing cost-effective benefits+ membership. So, yeah, if the UAW can't earn the members with an appealing offering then they probably won't get many new members.
  24. Right, you'll just go bankrupt doing it. At the end of the day, companies need to make a profit from competitively priced products We can all engineer & build rockets in our backyards, but that doesn't mean we're SpaceX, right?
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