December Sales

[suv_guy_19]

No Town Cars to sell. Last December, Lincoln sold over 5,000 Town Cars, and this month virtually none since TC production starts this month.

 

Well that explains it.

[SVT_MAN]

I'm not expecting it nor are they....

 

Neither am I .. but we can always hope, right? The Flex and F-150 need to turn the company around.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Volvo are the star turn for the month sales up +9%, the results make sad reading. CNBC summed up Fords woes very well everybody loves Ford and wants to see them do well, but they just don’t listen to, or build what the customer wants anymore they think they know what’s best.

 

 

There is nothing more l want to do than buy a new Ford, but Ford don’t make a single car that l am the slightest bit interested in a the moment in the UK, l find it all very sad.

 

 

Why? In general I heard from many people who say the same thing: Enough promises, give us cars and trucks we will love. Angela may have summed it up best when she wrote, "Why can't Ford put forth more economical, mechanically stable, sleek modeling, "greener", and just all around knockout cars? Doesn't Ford want to please us and give us what we want--what we NEED?"

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22488459

[NickF1011]

The D3's performed surprisingly WELL for the year. D3 sales totalled 131,409 for the year. With a disjointed advertising campaign and the switching of model names halfway through the year, I really don't see how that can be considered BAD. For comparison, the "uber-successful" Edge sold 130,125 and last year's D3 sales were 165,152. That means the '07 decline in D3 sales was not much different than the drop in overall sales at Ford across the board.

 

Good to see that the Focus was up also, albeit slightly. The final two months of the new Focus just fell short of being enough to make it positive on the year.

 

Trucks are taking an absolute beating. Ford needs some diesels and hybrids out there pronto.

 

It looks like for the most part, Ford's building blocks for the future have settled into their bottoms though. Mustang is near rock bottom. F-series has to be close to bottom. Explorer can't drop too much further. D3's appear to be on the slight incline. CD3's are holding steady if not inclining. Edge and Escape are doing well. Focus has stemmed its drop. I'm not expecting a stellar '08 from Ford, but it appears things are finally leveling off in those past couple of months of '07 enough to where we might see a month or two of slight increases this year.

[focus05]

Neither am I .. but we can always hope, right? The Flex and F-150 need to turn the company around.

 

Well, the Flex can do a lot as far as image, but Ford will never make it high-volume initially.

 

A new F-150 is good for nothing if there is not demand to keep its sales growing. And right now, it's just not there. That's why GM's launch has been a "disaster." Toyota has only succeeded because their total growth as "big" as it has been is a drop compared to the F-150 and Silverado sales - and that was only accomplished by giving them away practically.

 

What will save the company are high-quality launches of these two products and the MKS. Effective updates of the CD3 triplets, addition of hybrid models and hybrid capacity, continually improved engines and powertrains, new technology features like Ford's new Nav system and v2.0 of Sync and building an image of quality by maintaining its current momentum in that realm will also keep Ford growing and becoming more competitive.

 

Two products won't save Ford. The F-150 could help change the direction of its fortunes, but that will only be temporary unless Ford executes on these other points as well.

 

Sales will be down for 2008, probably 7-8%. I think it is unlikely that we will see any upswing until late Q3 or Q4.

[suv_guy_19]

For the Negatards, CD3 car sales = 220K units. Combined with the CD3 crossovers (almost 170k) it is almost 400K.

[FordBuyer]

Well, the Flex can do a lot as far as image, but Ford will never make it high-volume initially.

 

A new F-150 is good for nothing if there is not demand to keep its sales growing. And right now, it's just not there. That's why GM's launch has been a "disaster." Toyota has only succeeded because their total growth as "big" as it has been is a drop compared to the F-150 and Silverado sales - and that was only accomplished by giving them away practically.

 

What will save the company are high-quality launches of these two products and the MKS. Effective updates of the CD3 triplets, addition of hybrid models and hybrid capacity, continually improved engines and powertrains, new technology features like Ford's new Nav system and v2.0 of Sync and building an image of quality by maintaining its current momentum in that realm will also keep Ford growing and becoming more competitive.

 

Two products won't save Ford. The F-150 could help change the direction of its fortunes, but that will only be temporary unless Ford executes on these other points as well.

 

Sales will be down for 2008, probably 7-8%. I think it is unlikely that we will see any upswing until late Q3 or Q4.

 

I agree that Ford cannot rely on one or two vehicles to save it. Ford needs to be strong in every segment so that if one segment craters it doesn't bring the whole company down. Hopefully some day, F-Series will not make up 25%+ of all Ford sales. That is not healthy. It's kind of like having most of your investment portfolio in one vehicle. Not good.

[soupy]

When will financial results for the full year, (2007) be released?

Ford was up 88mil. through the first three quarters.

Does Ford turn a profit for the year?

[Edstock]

Product question:

 

When does the Transit Connect arrive?

 

This is just my stupid opinion with absolutely no fact to back it up, but I believe it is really going to go over really well, especially in urban areas. It could even be the reprise of Lido's original, small Econoline, for a new generation.

 

Edited January 3, 2008 by Edstock

[suv_guy_19]

When will financial results for the full year, (2007) be released?

Ford was up 88mil. through the first three quarters.

Does Ford turn a profit for the year?

 

My guess, No.

[bb62]

2000 - US Sales - 4,202,820

2001 - US Sales - 3,971,364 down 5.5%

2002 - US Sales - 3,623,709 down 8.8%

2003 - US Sales - 3,483,719 down 3.9%

2004 - US Sales - 3,331,696 down 4.4%

2005 - US Sales - 3,168,156 down 4.9%

2006 - US Sales - 2,918,674 down 7.9%

2007 - US Sales - 2,572,599 down 11.9%

 

Some random thoughts:

1. Even if 2/3 of the sales reduction in 07 was due to reduction in capacity due to elimination of fleet units, the reductions in volume (excluding the eliminated vehicles) are still consistent with volume losses from 2003 to 2005.

2. I find it useless for people here to note how successful some nameplates are becoming without considered the corresponding loss in sales from similar vehicles in the same segment. The bottom line is that from a sales demographics perspective, Ford as a brand is increasingly being viewed as an old person's brand (with a few exceptions). The average age of the typical Ford buyer is getting older every year and that is not good for brand survival.

3. Even though the European brand is doing OK (in some cases better than OK) there is considerable nervousness that the typical European cyclical drop in business will rear its head again. Europe is always boom and bust for Ford, but with the US in a seemingly permanent state of volume (and profitability) malaise, a Euro bust would spell disaster for Ford.

4. The reduction in volume for the F150 are little likely to turn around with the introduction of a new redesigned truck in the face of high fuel prices. The market is now slowly walking away from trucks as commuter vehicles but that will be a rush once the higher FE requirements need to be met (and the price of gas further skyrockets). Unfortunately for Ford, the F150 has long been an integral part of the profit picture.

5. Where will volumes be in 2008? New vehicles aren't being planned with the expectation of significant success (like the original mustang or first Explorer where 100 to 200 thousand units of volume can be added in a short period of time). This means that successful vehicles will be limited in volume while unsuccessful vehicles will continue to languish. This is a fundamental shift in policy from the successful Poling days (the last competent CEO (not counting Mullaly whose efforts can hardly be judged so soon in his tenure).

6. Speaking of judging results, I think it's about time to s***can Mr. Fields after his disasterous "Way Forward" strategic effort (largest 2 year drop in volumes in recent Ford history). He is someone who got promoted way beyond his capability by being in the right place at the right time - nothing more. I wouldn't be surprised to see him completely marginalized by the end of 08.

7. While I personally hate the Flex, Ford needs more of these polarizing designs where those customers that like the design can feel like they are not purchasing the next bland sedan. Only this way can Ford compete and lower the average age of its customer base (which is THE critical mission that Farley must have).

8. Again with the volumes, Ford is down 39% in 7 years. At that rate of volume reduction, Ford runs out of customers in about 1 generation (in other words as the older generation dies off). The question remains for Ford as to where their natural volumes lie (or whether they have the capability to fight back to achieve higher volumes in the long run).

9. As to competitive ability, as the Euro based design teams are tapped in increasing frequency, with the current dollar/Euro gap growing, that will ultimately make any European designs uncompatable with US economics. This will drive the costs of small cars ever higher leading to reduced competitiveness not higher competiveness.

10. As it stands Ford stock is currently below $6.50 a share giving a market capitalization of about $13.5B. Given the cash in the coffers, it doesn't bode well for Ford that the market values their potential efforts as being less than worthless. (Having said that, the same is true for the other "big" 3 US manufacturers).

11. Oveall what surprises me is the reduction in Ford volume (and competitiveness) over the past 7 years while losses at GM and even chrysler have been far smaller. Sure their profitability is also a problem, but their ability to bounce back seems to be consistently better and their management also seems more robust (certainly compared with the 3 re-org disasters at Ford). I must say that from a corporate view, I still don't have any warm and fuzzies about Ford's long term survival changes. It really could go either way (and for the sake of American manufacturing, I hope the company doesn't fold).

[silvrsvt]

The average age of the typical Ford buyer is getting older every year and that is not good for brand survival.

 

This is one thing I don't get about you, you constantly harp about Ford and its buyers getting older and older....aren't all Manufactures experancing this as the US Population gets greyer with the babyboomers moving into retirement etc? I wouldn't call 150K sales of Scion products by Toyota a marked increase in its youth sales. Not to mention it seems like most buyers of Younger Gen cars are 50-60 yr old Hippies. Buying a new car in your early 20's is a bitch esp with insurance rates and going to school.

[bb62]

This is one thing I don't get about you, you constantly harp about Ford and its buyers getting older and older....aren't all Manufactures experancing this as the US Population gets greyer with the babyboomers moving into retirement etc? I wouldn't call 150K sales of Scion products by Toyota a marked increase in its youth sales. Not to mention it seems like most buyers of Younger Gen cars are 50-60 yr old Hippies. Buying a new car in your early 20's is a bitch esp with insurance rates and going to school.

 

Of course the avarage age of the population is getting older. The problem for Ford is that even compared with this, the typical Ford customer is getting older at a rate well beyond the population and certainly beyond competition. And of course young buyers (in their 20s) don't buy many new vehicles, if I remember correctly (and it has been a while) the difference between Honda and Ford is something like 8 years for average age (about 39 versus 47). This IS a problem.

[Edstock]

8. Again with the volumes, Ford is down 39% in 7 years. At that rate of volume reduction, Ford runs out of customers in about 1 generation (in other words as the older generation dies off). The question remains for Ford as to where their natural volumes lie (or whether they have the capability to fight back to achieve higher volumes in the long run).

9. As to competitive ability, as the Euro based design teams are tapped in increasing frequency, with the current dollar/Euro gap growing, that will ultimately make any European designs uncompatable with US economics. This will drive the costs of small cars ever higher leading to reduced competitiveness not higher competiveness.

 

You've got a lot of valid points.

 

As to #8, that's why SYNC is so important, it gets the younger, computer-literate people checking out Ford product and is part of the strategy "to fight back to achieve higher volumes in the long run".

 

As to #9, the design process of taking a "world" platform and adapting it to the NA market is something that Ford is getting better at, as time goes by. With this ability to make changes and the fact that any small cars offered for sale in NA will not come from Europe, competitiveness should not be a problem.

[coupe3w]

I believe the problem is the prices of todays cars. Back in '84 and '85 I bought new Mustangs a '84 Mustang GT Turbo for like $14K and then in '85 a Mustang GT 5.0 for like $15.4K. Today the price for a nice Mustang GT is close to $30K. My pay hasn't doubled since '85. I don't have the same buying power today that I had in '85. Today for $14K I get an entry level car a Focus.

[TomServo92]

My pay hasn't doubled since '85.

 

Really? Maybe I'm in the minority but my gross pay now is like 600% higher than it was when I graduated from college in the late 80s.

[suv_guy_19]

Really? Maybe I'm in the minority but my gross pay now is like 600% higher than it was when I graduated from college in the late 80s.

 

I'd say that most people can more easily afford a car now than before. I know we can afford 3 new cars now, and as short a time ago as the early nineties, we could barely afford one.

Edited January 3, 2008 by suv_guy_19

[Catalepsy]

84 I was in Jr High...Grad college in 96. This past year I earn 4 times more than my first job out of college in 96.

 

If your pay haven't doubled since the 80s, you need to find another job.

 

That Mustang you got for $14K can't compare to the Mustang GT today in terms of safety or performance.

 

 

I believe the problem is the prices of todays cars. Back in '84 and '85 I bought new Mustangs a '84 Mustang GT Turbo for like $14K and then in '85 a Mustang GT 5.0 for like $15.4K. Today the price for a nice Mustang GT is close to $30K. My pay hasn't doubled since '85. I don't have the same buying power today that I had in '85. Today for $14K I get an entry level car a Focus.

Edited January 3, 2008 by Catalepsy

[focus05]

The prices of cars are not out of whack. In fact, the true sale price of vehicles has been flat for about 7 or 8 years now. That GT MSRPs for $30k, but it sells for $25k, which, considering the content, is probably spot on the inflation metrics for the car market.

 

You have to remember that your '84 Mustang did not have six airbags, a computer controlling your engine and exhaust, a safety cage body structure, a 6-disc CD changer, etc, etc.

 

Coming out of college biases your earnings growth. The first few years out, incomes typically skyrocket if you perform well at professional or skilled jobs. My income is up, honestly, about 100% in about 4 years since starting my first day at my first job after college. I will never have earnings growth like that again unless I whore myself to the industrial machine.

[ford-boy]

Really? Maybe I'm in the minority but my gross pay now is like 600% higher than it was when I graduated from college in the late 80s.

 

I was hired as a high school math teacher in '83 at $14,000 on Long Island. When I retired at the end of the 2006 school year, I was making 98,000. That would be a 700% increase. I wasn't able to buy a 5.0 GT Mustang in the mid 80's, but could have bought one 10 years later.

[ANTAUS]

I think it's safe to say that since the Fat Lady sang, there's some vehicles that have beat internal expected sales such as the Edge, MKZ, MKX, Fusion to name a few.

 

So for those who were concerned about a vehicle being a "failure", the numbers show otherwise is we are using that as an indicator of success.

[TStag]

I feel confident Ford will survive the short term, but I'm begining to think that by the end of nex year Ford will either be owned by another car company or become the owner of Chrysler. There are a lot of positive things that you can say about Ford now that the healthcare liabilities issue is fading and that they are 1 year away from new models but Ford is carrying a huge amount of debt in an industry which is very tough. CAR magazine is speculating that the Ford family plan to sell their shares and voting rights this year, despite the fact they said they won't. I can see why they might if the right deal is presented to them. So I for one think Ford may be a very different looking company inside a year.

[silvrsvt]

I feel confident Ford will survive the short term, but I'm begining to think that by the end of nex year Ford will either be owned by another car company or become the owner of Chrysler.

 

[jpd80]

Ford is busy in their words, "right sizing" production to true sales level and changing its product mix.

Examples of this are two thirds of the 2006-2007 sales drop was from discontinued vehicles and more 4-cylinder

Fords being sold now compared to two years ago.

[suv_guy_19]

 

 

Let me simply add this....

 

:hysterical: :hysterical: :hysterical: