I Can't See Flex Not Flopping

[NickF1011]

Well, good luck with the $40,000 Flex then. I still say you guys are living in a Detroit/Ford bubble and are just arranging the chairs on the deck by getting all excited over Flex and MKS while those of us outside the bubble clearly see that the Titanic needs quality small cars NOW to stay afloat. I have ALWAYS owned at least 1 Ford product and honestly want them to survive. But I just can't fathom how hyping a $40,000 16/24 vehicle is doing anything but kidding yourselves.

 

More lame Titanic references...

 

And more lame references to $40K Flexes, which will probably account for about 5% of sales. Most will be priced FAR lower.

 

And more lame references to the incorrect fuel economy. It's either 16/23 for AWD or 17/24 for FWD. Get it right.

 

And once more, 16/23 and 17/24 is near tops compared to its competition.

 

Seriously, get over it. You don't like the Flex. We can see that. Arguing about it at this point is moot. We'll see what happens over the next couple of months. I think you're going to be disappointed though.

[theoldwizard]

A friend of a friend was a 2 Ford salary employee family. Husband was an LL5 with 2 management lease cars, including a brand new Flex. Key word is "was". He got the ax a couple weeks ago and was told he had to turn in/purchase both cars within a week. Wife response was, "I like the Flex, but we certainly can't afford a $35K car now !"

 

Remember, she is still a salary employee and the $35K price was the management, used, "B Plan" price.

 

So this car will likely go on the auction block with less than 5,000 miles and probably sell for about $25-30K.

[Daryll40]

A friend of a friend was a 2 Ford salary employee family. Husband was an LL5 with 2 management lease cars, including a brand new Flex. Key word is "was". He got the ax a couple weeks ago and was told he had to turn in/purchase both cars within a week. Wife response was, "I like the Flex, but we certainly can't afford a $35K car now !"

 

Remember, she is still a salary employee and the $35K price was the management, used, "B Plan" price.

 

So this car will likely go on the auction block with less than 5,000 miles and probably sell for about $25-30K.

 

You're makin' my point. Unless oil prices crash and burn and it was all just a speculative bubble (which I hope is the case....but doubt at this point)....the market is permanently shifting away from these type vehicles. Even if it's a slow price decline like what happened after the 1979 spike, Ford doesn't have the luxury of time as it will take a few years at least before people start guzzling again.

[NickF1011]

You're makin' my point. Unless oil prices crash and burn and it was all just a speculative bubble (which I hope is the case....but doubt at this point)....the market is permanently shifting away from these type vehicles. Even if it's a slow price decline like what happened after the 1979 spike, Ford doesn't have the luxury of time as it will take a few years at least before people start guzzling again.

 

What point is that? That a family on a single salary can't afford a new $35K vehicle? That's nothing new. I don't see how that relates to anything else being discussed.

[akirby]

the market is permanently shifting away from these type vehicles.

 

You don't know that at all. Show me the current market share for V6 powered minivans and car based crossovers that can seat 7 people.

 

I guarantee you that people currently driving Large SUVs and trucks will likely downsize to a Flex, minivan or other similar vehicle before they go to a small econobox.

 

Even the large truck/SUV market will stabilize - it will just be a lot smaller. Some people are leaving that segment and going to a Flex while some may be going to a Focus or Fusion. And some in the Flex segment may be moving to smaller cars.

 

Show us the market share numbers or be quiet.

[Daryll40]

You don't know that at all. Show me the current market share for V6 powered minivans and car based crossovers that can seat 7 people.

 

I guarantee you that people currently driving Large SUVs and trucks will likely downsize to a Flex, minivan or other similar vehicle before they go to a small econobox.

 

Even the large truck/SUV market will stabilize - it will just be a lot smaller. Some people are leaving that segment and going to a Flex while some may be going to a Focus or Fusion. And some in the Flex segment may be moving to smaller cars.

 

Show us the market share numbers or be quiet.

 

I have no numbers but have common sense and live outside the MOTOWN bubble. Much of what you say is true and many WILL migrate to Flex. But there is a HUGE capacity issue...many...half?...the people driving hulking SUVs will be out of that market now. SOME will buy Flex but the others will probably be doing the TOYHON thing. Again, too many bad memories of Pinto, Contour/Mystake, etc in the USA small cars.

Edited July 23, 2008 by Daryll40

[NickF1011]

I have no numbers but have common sense and live outside the MOTOWN bubble. Much of what you say is true and many WILL migrate to Flex. But there is a HUGE capacity issue...many...half?...the people driving hulking SUVs will be out of that market now. SOME will buy Flex but the others will probably be doing the TOYHON thing. Again, too many bad memories of Pinto, Contour/Mystake, etc in the USA small cars.

Ah, so now we get to the real root of your complaint. You simply hate domestics.

[Daryll40]

Ah, so now we get to the real root of your complaint. You simply hate domestics.

 

No, I don't hate domestics at all. I DO think that small, fuel efficient domestics have been severely lacking compared to ToyHon, and the market agrees with me. The domestic trucks/SUVS have been fabulous...I love our '03 Mountaineer...but that era is ending. THAT is the problem.

[akirby]

No, I don't hate domestics at all. I DO think that small, fuel efficient domestics have been severely lacking compared to ToyHon, and the market agrees with me. The domestic trucks/SUVS have been fabulous...I love our '03 Mountaineer...but that era is ending. THAT is the problem.

 

There is no prestige in buying a minivan - people buy them because they need them. People who drive large V8 SUVs who still need to seat six or seven will buy a Flex or minivan or midsize V6 crossover. This market won't go away. Once you adjust for the overall decline in auto sales (around 20%) the market share for minivans and midsize crossovers might be down a few points but not much.

 

Do you honestly think nobody will buy minivans and midsize SUVs/crossovers?

[Daryll40]

Read today's headlines. Ford loses almost 9 billion. NOW who has the numbers on their side?

 

C'mon guys. WAKE UP. Get outside the MOTOWN bubble and start using COMMON SENSE. You need a FORD CIVIC/COROLLA NOW. RIGHT NOW.

[JW]

Try reading beyond the headlines (or is the print too small for you?). $8 billion of it is due to devaluation of North American assets (which is happening EVERYWHERE) and a shrinking lease portfolio.

 

Meanwhile...

 

The improvements build on several Ford fuel economy leaders today, such as:

•

2009 Ford Flex, which is the most fuel-efficient standard seven-passenger vehicle on the market, topping the 2009 Honda Pilot (Wasn't this your original bitch-fest anyway??)

•

2009 Ford Focus, with highway fuel economy of up to 35 mpg (matches your beloved Corolla and is close enough to the Civic to be statistically insignificant) – better than the smaller 2008 Honda Fit and 2009 Nissan Versa SL and a key reason Focus retail sales are up 50 percent

•

2009 Escape, with a new 2.5-liter four-cylinder engine and six-speed transmission delivering best-in-class highway fuel economy of 28 mpg – ahead of Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V

•

2009 Ford Escape Hybrid, delivering 34 mpg in the city and 31 mpg on the highway, making it the most fuel-efficient utility vehicle available

 

Nick's dead on - your anti-Detroit bias oozes out of every post.

[akirby]

Of course Ford NEEDS more small cars and better ones - nobody denies that and that is the crux of the new transformation plan.

 

The difference is we think people will also still be buying minivans and midsize V6 crossovers and you don't.

 

Ford will be selling at least 5,000 Flexes per month by the end of the year - maybe more. The original sales goal was 100K but given the overall decline in auto sales the more realistic target would be 6500/month. That's not a lot of vehicles. It's not like they need to sell 300K.

[NickF1011]

Ford will be selling at least 5,000 Flexes per month by the end of the year - maybe more. The original sales goal was 100K but given the overall decline in auto sales the more realistic target would be 6500/month. That's not a lot of vehicles. It's not like they need to sell 300K.

 

The original goal was 70,000. That was revised to a "maximum of 100,000". 70,000 is only about 6000 a month. Perfectly reasonable expectation for this vehicle.

[FLLMTR]

What are the lease rates on the Flex?

[Daryll40]

Of course Ford NEEDS more small cars and better ones - nobody denies that and that is the crux of the new transformation plan.

 

The difference is we think people will also still be buying minivans and midsize V6 crossovers and you don't.

 

Ford will be selling at least 5,000 Flexes per month by the end of the year - maybe more. The original sales goal was 100K but given the overall decline in auto sales the more realistic target would be 6500/month. That's not a lot of vehicles. It's not like they need to sell 300K.

 

OK, keep drinking the Kool-Aid and killing this messenger. But read the headlines....Ford Loses Record $8B On Declining Truck Sales while Honda Posts Surprise 8.1% Profit Gain on Sales of Civic and Fit.

 

Gulp, gulp....

[akirby]

OK, keep drinking the Kool-Aid and killing this messenger. But read the headlines....Ford Loses Record $8B On Declining Truck Sales while Honda Posts Surprise 8.1% Profit Gain on Sales of Civic and Fit.

 

Gulp, gulp....

 

Ford did not lose $8B on declining truck sales - it wrote off some assets. Big difference.

 

Everybody agrees that Large truck and SUV sales are in the tank and small car sales are up and Ford needs the Fiesta yesterday.

 

But you said nobody would buy the Flex due to the FE ratings, implying that people are only going to buy small cars. And we're telling you that you're wrong and that crossovers, minivans and Flex sales will not fall very much in relation to other segments - in other words the folks moving out of that segment into small cars will be replaced by people moving down from large trucks and SUVs.

 

And remember - a 20% decline in sales means you're maintaining your market share because overall sales are off 20% this year. Large trucks and SUVs will be down more than 20% while cars will be up slightly or down less than 20%.

[JW]

Ford did not lose $8B on declining truck sales - it wrote off some assets. Big difference.

 

A little factoid he keeps conveniently ignoring

[Daryll40]

Ford did not lose $8B on declining truck sales - it wrote off some assets. Big difference.

 

Everybody agrees that Large truck and SUV sales are in the tank and small car sales are up and Ford needs the Fiesta yesterday.

 

But you said nobody would buy the Flex due to the FE ratings, implying that people are only going to buy small cars. And we're telling you that you're wrong and that crossovers, minivans and Flex sales will not fall very much in relation to other segments - in other words the folks moving out of that segment into small cars will be replaced by people moving down from large trucks and SUVs.

 

And remember - a 20% decline in sales means you're maintaining your market share because overall sales are off 20% this year. Large trucks and SUVs will be down more than 20% while cars will be up slightly or down less than 20%.

 

 

You can spin it any way you want, but the ship is still sinking. And if Ford had a reputation for and selection of quality small cars, they would be profitable like Honda. Flex does nothing to keep the ship from sinking which was my original point.

[akirby]

You can spin it any way you want, but the ship is still sinking. And if Ford had a reputation for and selection of quality small cars, they would be profitable like Honda. Flex does nothing to keep the ship from sinking which was my original point.

 

Umm.....No, that wasn't your original point. Did you forget what you typed?

 

I saw a loaded $41,000 Flex at a local (Pittsburgh) dealer. I can't see how they'll sell. Folks like me with Explorers (Mountaineer, actually) are getting bupkis in the resale market for these hogs...so how will we move into Flex at that price.

 

I predict they flop. They're basically Explorer replacements that get 3MPG better. Unless gas goes back to $2.50 (and even then, folks might be spooked that it won't last), it's over for this type of vehicle.

 

You said the the Flex (and by implication all other 6/7 passenger V6 vehicles which includes minivans and crossovers) would flop and nobody would buy them.

 

Will this vehicle save Ford? Of course not. Neither will the Fiesta - by itself. Having 7 or 8 vehicles like the Flex, Edge and Fiesta that sell reasonably well without huge incentives WILL save Ford.

[NickF1011]

Will this vehicle save Ford? Of course not. Neither will the Fiesta - by itself. Having 7 or 8 vehicles like the Flex, Edge and Fiesta that sell reasonably well without huge incentives WILL save Ford.

 

Exactly. The Flex is just one more piece of a revised product portfolio. It was quite a bit easier to design the Flex and produce it than it was to design an all-new Fiesta and re-tool a plant here to build them. That's why the Flex is here before the Fiesta. That's the only reason.

 

Very good point about the Fiesta too. The Fiesta by itself likely isn't going to make profits for crap. Even if Ford sold 400,000 Fiestas a year, it would still make more profits on 100,000 F-150's.

[Daryll40]

Exactly. The Flex is just one more piece of a revised product portfolio. It was quite a bit easier to design the Flex and produce it than it was to design an all-new Fiesta and re-tool a plant here to build them. That's why the Flex is here before the Fiesta. That's the only reason.

 

Very good point about the Fiesta too. The Fiesta by itself likely isn't going to make profits for crap. Even if Ford sold 400,000 Fiestas a year, it would still make more profits on 100,000 F-150's.

 

 

THAT'S EXACTLY MY WHOLE POINT! Ford's entire culture is geared toward making profits from big hulking vehicles, not from small ones. So while you guys enjoy patting yourselves about the latest new gas hog (Flex, MKS etc), the Japanese are eating your lunch AND NOW DINNER. Because THEIR culture is to make profits on quality small cars.

 

YOU STATED MY POINT EXACTLY. EXACTLY!

[NickF1011]

THAT'S EXACTLY MY WHOLE POINT! Ford's entire culture is geared toward making profits from big hulking vehicles, not from small ones. So while you guys enjoy patting yourselves about the latest new gas hog (Flex, MKS etc), the Japanese are eating your lunch AND NOW DINNER. Because THEIR culture is to make profits on quality small cars.

 

YOU STATED MY POINT EXACTLY. EXACTLY!

 

Your point is completely wrong though. Ford would make more money on 100,000 F-150's than Honda would make selling 400,000 Fits too. B-cars just don't make much money. It's a fact of life in the automotive industry. It doesn't matter if you are Honda, Ford, Toyota, General Motors, Tata, Fiat....whoever!! Small, low-priced vehicles make less profit than large, high-priced ones. Period.

 

It's not a matter of culture, or inability to adapt. It's simple, cold, hard economic fact.

Edited July 29, 2008 by NickF1011

[Daryll40]

Your point is completely wrong though. Ford would make more money on 100,000 F-150's than Honda would make selling 400,000 Fits too. B-cars just don't make much money. It's a fact of life in the automotive industry. It doesn't matter if you are Honda, Ford, Toyota, General Motors, Tata, Fiat....whoever!! Small, low-priced vehicles make less profit than large, high-priced ones. Period.

 

It's not a matter of culture, or inability to adapt. It's simple, cold, hard economic fact.

 

Yeah but Honda's whole culture since they started selling cars in the 1970's was and is to make money on a COMPLETE LINEUP of smaller, more efficient vehicles than Ford's culture of solld, quality gas hogs that suddenly went extinct during the months of May and June, 2008, as will be written on their tombstones.

 

So Honda thrives, Toyota survives, Chrysler will probably die, GM will morph into something much smaller than it's ever been and Ford will either eeke by or die too.

[suv_guy_19]

GM will morph into something much smaller than it's ever been and Ford will either eeke by or die too.

 

 

GM is in worse shape than Ford based on what we've seen. You also have to remember that booth Ford and GM are large global companies with profitable operations in almost every other part of the world. The only sore spot is NA. Quite spreading the doom and gloom.

[akirby]

Yeah but Honda's whole culture since they started selling cars in the 1970's was and is to make money on a COMPLETE LINEUP of smaller, more efficient vehicles than Ford's culture of solld, quality gas hogs that suddenly went extinct during the months of May and June, 2008, as will be written on their tombstones.

 

So Honda thrives, Toyota survives, Chrysler will probably die, GM will morph into something much smaller than it's ever been and Ford will either eeke by or die too.

 

Exaggerate much? Last time I checked (June sales) a lot of people were still buying Trucks, SUVs, Crossovers and Minivans.

 

Ford can still make more on 200,000 F150s than Honda can make on 200,000 Fits. Or maybe I should say 200,000 f150s and 100,000 Fiestas.