I Can't See Flex Not Flopping

[FordFanForEver]

Today or tomorrow. Not really sure. Yeah, 4000 is my guess for now. A little less than they were expecting, but then again, what large vehicles ARE performing entirely to expectations right now?

 

4000 Flex

1500 MKS

Edited August 1, 2008 by FordFanForEver

[akirby]

Yikes - 2,204 for Flex. Much lower than I expected. I still believe with advertising and word of mouth (and gas dropping) they'll be up to 4000 within a month or two. If not then I'll admit it's a slower than expected start.

 

HOWEVER - crossovers in total (Flex, Edge, Escape, Taurus X) are only down 4%. They're on track to sell almost 300K this year.

 

SUVs (Explorer, Expedition) are down 54% but will still sell 100k-150K per year.

 

F-series is only down 20% and will still sell over 500K.

 

So tell me again how crossovers, SUVs and trucks are DEAD?

[NickF1011]

Yikes - 2,204 for Flex. Much lower than I expected. I still believe with advertising and word of mouth (and gas dropping) they'll be up to 4000 within a month or two. If not then I'll admit it's a slower than expected start.

 

HOWEVER - crossovers in total (Flex, Edge, Escape, Taurus X) are only down 4%. They're on track to sell almost 300K this year.

 

SUVs (Explorer, Expedition) are down 54% but will still sell 100k-150K per year.

 

F-series is only down 20% and will still sell over 500K.

 

So tell me again how crossovers, SUVs and trucks are DEAD?

 

Meh...2204 for Flex. Disappointing. It is still realistically a roll-out month for the vehicle though. Still an improvement of almost 1000 units over its first month. Wouldn't call it dead in the water.

[Daryll40]

Meh...2204 for Flex. Disappointing. It is still realistically a roll-out month for the vehicle though. Still an improvement of almost 1000 units over its first month. Wouldn't call it dead in the water.

 

 

Look, Nick. Honest, I am NOT rooting for Ford to fail. Seriously! But you keep shooting this messenger...you need to get out of your Motown bubble and see what the rest of us in middle America are seeing. We are NOT going to, in any great volume, commit to some 16/24 or 17/25 vehicles at prices we used to pay. Flex doesn't stand a chance at these prices. Heck, in the first few months there should be people lining up to be the first on their block with the new ride!

 

Until gas either comes down or at least levels out, most of us will milk our current vehicles. Even Toyota sales are showing that. In the meantime GM and C are close to bankruptcy while Ford's position deteriorates. The US car industry is heading into a new phase of downsizing at the very least. Come out of Motown and see what I'm talking about. Flex is not gonna make it unless, maybe, if they seriously cut the prices to reflect what it costs to fuel 16/24. Doesn't matter that it's got a nicer interior etc etc. Rearranging chairs on the titanic.

[NickF1011]

Look, Nick. Honest, I am NOT rooting for Ford to fail. Seriously! But you keep shooting this messenger...you need to get out of your Motown bubble and see what the rest of us in middle America are seeing. We are NOT going to, in any great volume, commit to some 16/24 or 17/25 vehicles at prices we used to pay. Flex doesn't stand a chance at these prices. Heck, in the first few months there should be people lining up to be the first on their block with the new ride!

 

Until gas either comes down or at least levels out, most of us will milk our current vehicles. Even Toyota sales are showing that. In the meantime GM and C are close to bankruptcy while Ford's position deteriorates. The US car industry is heading into a new phase of downsizing at the very least. Come out of Motown and see what I'm talking about. Flex is not gonna make it unless, maybe, if they seriously cut the prices to reflect what it costs to fuel 16/24. Doesn't matter that it's got a nicer interior etc etc. Rearranging chairs on the titanic.

 

Motown bubble? I don't live anywhere remotely NEAR Motown. And no, there shouldn't be people lining up to buy brand new vehicles if 1. the dealers don't have enough of the right models in stock or 2. they don't know it exists. Jim Farley said in the earnings call today that the Flex marketing campaign isn't being rolled out in earnest until September.

 

If you have any sense of history, you will know that Ford (and plenty of others) have had generally slow rollouts on new products over the past several years. The Edge sold very slowly its first few months (2201 first month, 5586 second month in the more car-buying friendly months of December and January, and long before gas prices spiked up), and now its amonst the best-selling CUVs on the market.

 

As for the vehicles that people know exist...the 16/24 Edge still sold close to 10,000 units. Mustang even sold over 10,000. People aren't abandoning less-efficient vehicles as much as you want to think they are.

 

Is 10,000 units not "great volume"? Ford sold 44,000 F-series last month. Is that not "great volume"?

[Daryll40]

Motown bubble? I don't live anywhere remotely NEAR Motown. And no, there shouldn't be people lining up to buy brand new vehicles if 1. the dealers don't have enough of the right models in stock or 2. they don't know it exists. Jim Farley said in the earnings call today that the Flex marketing campaign isn't being rolled out in earnest until September.

 

If you have any sense of history, you will know that Ford (and plenty of others) have had generally slow rollouts on new products over the past several years. The Edge sold very slowly its first few months (2201 first month, 5586 second month in the more car-buying friendly months of December and January, and long before gas prices spiked up), and now its amonst the best-selling CUVs on the market.

 

As for the vehicles that people know exist...the 16/24 Edge still sold close to 10,000 units. Mustang even sold over 10,000. People aren't abandoning less-efficient vehicles as much as you want to think they are.

 

Is 10,000 units not "great volume"? Ford sold 44,000 F-series last month. Is that not "great volume"?

 

I don't fully understand the volume numbers as "good" or "bad". YOU were the one who was talking about 4000 Flex's sold as proof that my original post here was wrong. The number came in HALF that so I am just using your own reasoning to show that Flex might be a great vehicle in it's category, but that yet another vehicle in that category will do little to nothing to float the Titanic in this market.

[akirby]

I don't fully understand the volume numbers as "good" or "bad". YOU were the one who was talking about 4000 Flex's sold as proof that my original post here was wrong. The number came in HALF that so I am just using your own reasoning to show that Flex might be a great vehicle in it's category, but that yet another vehicle in that category will do little to nothing to float the Titanic in this market.

 

We've showed you the numbers that prove crossovers, as a whole, are only down 8% over last year and that while trucks and SUVs are down significantly more, they're still accounting for well over 600K units per year.

 

You can't keep saying that nobody will buy trucks, suvs and crossovers and then ignore the actual sales figures that prove otherwise.

[Daryll40]

We've showed you the numbers that prove crossovers, as a whole, are only down 8% over last year and that while trucks and SUVs are down significantly more, they're still accounting for well over 600K units per year.

 

You can't keep saying that nobody will buy trucks, suvs and crossovers and then ignore the actual sales figures that prove otherwise.

 

I repeat my prior reply that 4000 was the "bar" set here. Flex only hit half-bar.

[baggs32]

I repeat my prior reply that 4000 was the "bar" set here. Flex only hit half-bar.

 

I'm not so sure July was such a good month to draw any conclusions from. It is a fact that some of the dealers around my area, metro Pittsburgh, only received their first 1 or 2 Flex in the past week or two. I'm basing this on the inventory I can see on fordvehicles.com so they may not even actually have them on the lots yet.

 

FWIW I did see on on the road today. It was a black SEL and it was very sharp. I work at a large University where Accords and Camrys are the norm. Seeing a Flex this early in the game is highly remarkable. Keep in mind that it's Summer and the population on campus is at a minimum. I expect to see many more in the next couple of months.

[akirby]

I repeat my prior reply that 4000 was the "bar" set here. Flex only hit half-bar.

 

6 weeks after it debuts, with shipments to only 13 large cities and almost no advertising. I'll go on record saying it will hit 3,000 next month and 4,000 within 3 months. And stay there.

 

But you didn't say that it would only sell half - you said that NOBODY would still be buying trucks, suvs and crossovers due to gas prices. And you're still wrong.

[range]

as posted in the main board regarding the Flex

 

1) September is launch of national advertising campaign.

 

2) 70% 'favorable' opinion of the Flex among new crossover shoppers, the highest rating for any new Ford product in years, and the highest rating apart from the F-Series for a Ford product

 

3) On Sunday, Ford Flex was the #7 most popular search on Yahoo, and the most popular vehicle search.

 

4) 2200 Flex vehicles on hand at the start of July

 

5) vehicle has only been launched in 11 markets so far

[armadamaster]

Well, I know this much, I can't turn the damned TV with out that same Flex commercial being on. So, a year from now, when I get to put the "Armada Master Seal of FAIL" on yet another D3 experiment at the 's expense, the :cheerleader: s better not start crying "It wasn't advertised!!!".

 

I even brought a picture to explain, Ford and the D3:

 

 

Is it time yet???

Edited August 2, 2008 by Armada Master

[Griffin]

Well, I know this much, I can't turn the damned TV with out that same Flex commercial being on. So, a year from now, when I get to put the "Armada Master Seal of FAIL" on yet another D3 experiment at the 's expense, the :cheerleader: s better not start crying "It wasn't advertised!!!".

 

I even brought a picture to explain, Ford and the D3:

 

 

Is it time yet???

 

 

Hmmm based on this post and another in which you posted a PM from banned P71, I ask are you both living in the same basement?.

[armadamaster]

Hmmm based on this post and another in which you posted a PM from banned P71, I ask are you both living in the same basement?.

 

It rubs the lotion on it's skin.....

[NLPRacing]

Hmmm based on this post and another in which you posted a PM from banned P71, I ask are you both living in the same basement?.

 

P71 is from Cottage Grove, Minnesota, where he lives in his parent's basement and drives a $200 police auction Crown Vic. AM is in Houston,Texas, where they don't have basements, but he does live above the garage at his parents house driving a 95 ex-Police Caprice that he found on the side of the road. They are basically the same person, just in different places...

[armadamaster]

P71 is from Cottage Grove, Minnesota, where he lives in his parent's basement and drives a $200 police auction Crown Vic. AM is in Houston,Texas, where they don't have basements, but he does live above the garage at his parents house driving a 95 ex-Police Caprice that he found on the side of the road. They are basically the same person, just in different places...

 

Man, I'd love to have a 1995 9C1 LT1 Caprice.....

Edited August 3, 2008 by Armada Master

[NLPRacing]

Man, I'd love to have a 1995 9C1 LT1 Caprice.....

 

My father-in-law had a 95 Impala SS, it was an okay car. Ran low 15's in stock form. Now most V6 mid-size cars are faster, but they don't really get any better gas mileage...

[armadamaster]

My father-in-law had a 95 Impala SS, it was an okay car. Ran low 15's in stock form.

 

Oh but the ride...

 

Now most V6 mid-size cars are faster, but they don't really get any better gas mileage...

 

Most new V6 cars are peppier off the line, but get gutless over 50 MPH, which the 1994-1996 LT1s did not.

 

But each round of new cars definitely are getting more powerful and are/will make the LT1 look slower each year.

[Daryll40]

Page B4 of today's (Monday Aug 4th) Wall Street Journal has an article about "Crossover Vehicles Face Sales Slump" and have the Ford Edge as the poster child for the article. The article states what I said from the beginning of this tread...the gas savings versus a "real" SUV are not that great and folks like me with "real" SUVs are getting bupkis when trying to sell/trade so it's cheaper to just keep fueling the old ride.

 

Flex will flop. You heard it here first. People are not gonna line up, like they once did for Explorer, for a $35,000 to $45,000 17/25 vehicle in this market.

[akirby]

Flex will flop. You heard it here first. People are not gonna line up, like they once did for Explorer, for a $35,000 to $45,000 17/25 vehicle in this market.

 

Gee, this sounds familiar. Let's define "flop" in real numbers. Flex is expected to sell between 6000 and 7000 per month after ramp up. 4000 to 6000 would be low but acceptable, so I'd define "flop" to be less then 4000 per month AFTER 6 months. Agree?

[NickF1011]

I repeat my prior reply that 4000 was the "bar" set here. Flex only hit half-bar.

 

4000 was simply a guess on my part. It wasn't a bar I was setting. Take it for what you will though.

[NickF1011]

Page B4 of today's (Monday Aug 4th) Wall Street Journal has an article about "Crossover Vehicles Face Sales Slump" and have the Ford Edge as the poster child for the article. The article states what I said from the beginning of this tread...the gas savings versus a "real" SUV are not that great and folks like me with "real" SUVs are getting bupkis when trying to sell/trade so it's cheaper to just keep fueling the old ride.

 

Flex will flop. You heard it here first. People are not gonna line up, like they once did for Explorer, for a $35,000 to $45,000 17/25 vehicle in this market.

 

They were using the Edge as the poster child? Surprised, since it isn't really down much from last year.

 

As for people not lining up for the Flex like they did for Explorer.....no shit. Nobody lines up for anything as much as they did for the Explorer. Even the Camry and Accord aren't selling what the Explorer did in its hey-day.

 

And once AGAIN....the Flex starts under $30,000, comparable to many other 7-passenger CUV's.

[fordmantpw]

...

 

Flex will flop. You heard it here first.

 

...

 

 

No, we've heard it elsewhere before...we didn't here it from you first. There are plenty of negatards saying the Flex will flop.

[akirby]

4000 was simply a guess on my part. It wasn't a bar I was setting. Take it for what you will though.

 

4000 seems about right. But some people like to ignore the fact that the vehicle isn't widely advertised or available in quantity until September.

[NickF1011]

4000 seems about right. But some people like to ignore the fact that the vehicle isn't widely advertised or available in quantity until September.

 

Yes, I was not aware of the limited market rollout thus far. That explains a lot of it.

 

Of my local dealers, here's what's listed in stock:

 

Apple Ford: 2 SEL, 1 SE - 3 TOTAL

 

Bob Bell Ford: 3 Limited, 2 SEL, 4 SE - 7 TOTAL

 

Norris Ford: 1 Limited, 3 SEL, 2 SE - 6 TOTAL

 

Koons Ford of Baltimore: 4 Limited, 6 SEL, 2 SE - 12 TOTAL

 

Koons Ford of Annapolis: 1 SEL, 2 SE - 3 TOTAL

 

That's all the Ford dealers within about a a half hour of me. In that distance, there's a TOTAL of 31 Flexes listed in inventory. What are the chances of finding the one you want in a stock that small? Not very big.

Edited August 4, 2008 by NickF1011