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Note from HDT;

 

Heavy Duty Trucking (HDT)  /  August 29, 2019

There looks to be a shift away from spec’ing 14L engines in new Class 8 trucks in favor of powerplants that range from over 10L to under 14L in displacement. And the trend to smaller-displacement engine is expected to continue as diesel’s market hegemony comes “under attack” by alternative power.

That analysis is included in the N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine Outlook report which predicts that engines over 10L will account for more than 85% of the Class 8 production between 2020 and 2024.

“Although the over-14L engine category will remain the largest segment in 2019, there is a trend to smaller-displacement engines in the over 10L market segment for Class 8 trucks and tractors, with an acceleration prompted by new emission regulations expected in 2024,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates.

For Class 5-7, he said, "the current metric of interest is gasoline penetration, which continues to see share gains.”

 

In particular last paragraph.  The 7.3 will be in a class by itself-at least for a while

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11 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Note from HDT;

 

Heavy Duty Trucking (HDT)  /  August 29, 2019

There looks to be a shift away from spec’ing 14L engines in new Class 8 trucks in favor of powerplants that range from over 10L to under 14L in displacement. And the trend to smaller-displacement engine is expected to continue as diesel’s market hegemony comes “under attack” by alternative power.

What alternative power ?  Is anyone out there developing a 10L+ gasoline engine ?

 

LNG has not dies yet and I don't know why.  UPS is actually increasing their fleet of Class 8 LNG trucks.  You have to put a HUGE number of miles on one to get to the break even point and who really knows what the long term durability of all that LNG equipment is !  Maybe UPS, but they are not talking !!

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4 hours ago, theoldwizard said:

What alternative power ?  Is anyone out there developing a 10L+ gasoline engine ?

 

You must be joking! Didn't you see the Tesla release about their class 8 tractor being used to deliver the small Tesla-like 4 at a time- about what a 550 Power stroke/Duramax/6.7 Cummins could do!

LNG has not dies yet and I don't know why.  UPS is actually increasing their fleet of Class 8 LNG trucks.  You have to put a HUGE number of miles on one to get to the break even point and who really knows what the long term durability of all that LNG equipment is !  Maybe UPS, but they are not talking !!

 

My old company bought like 50 Petes including a big buck transport to haul our own gas-to say nothing of the terminal installations.  I think that lasted less than two years before the project was abandoned.  I believe we had a bright young person who filled the guy at the top with a lot of bullshit about the "green PR" effect. They both are gone.

 

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19 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

My old company bought like 50 Petes including a big buck transport to haul our own gas-to say nothing of the terminal installations.  I think that lasted less than two years before the project was abandoned.  I believe we had a bright young person who filled the guy at the top with a lot of bullshit about the "green PR" effect. They both are gone.

 

I still can not figure out what UPS knows that the rest of the trucking industry does not !

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I wonder if heavier trucks will start to look at hybrid power as a way of using smaller,  more efficient

diesels or gasoline backed up by electric launch assist and regenerative braking. Maybe not so much

long haul on steady flat ground but wherever there's opportunity to use electrics  accelerate/braking.

 

Thinking fuel savings and longer intervals between brake pack change outs / down time.

Could we see electric credits on vehicles where big change in emissions could happen

compared to cars?

 

Owners and fleet managers would want to see real world proof of savings but if Calif and aligned

states are serious about real emission reductions then maybe this is something to look at.

Edited by jpd80
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yeah Bob, your point about the tag axle and NOT a tandem is well taken, but it just seemed to me that it wasn't a tag axle, wheel/tire diameter was identical to live axle, had dual wheels.  Yeah I know, some are.  But anyway.  I'm trying to envision the next generation mediums using class 1 thru 5 sheet metal ( will they be aluminum?) and I like it!

Edited by Joe771476
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On 8/31/2019 at 1:05 PM, jpd80 said:

I wonder if heavier trucks will start to look at hybrid power as a way of using smaller,  more efficient

diesels or gasoline backed up by electric launch assist and regenerative braking. Maybe not so much

long haul on steady flat ground but wherever there's opportunity to use electrics  accelerate/braking.

 

Thinking fuel savings and longer intervals between brake pack change outs / down time.

Could we see electric credits on vehicles where big change in emissions could happen

compared to cars?

 

Owners and fleet managers would want to see real world proof of savings but if Calif and aligned

states are serious about real emission reductions then maybe this is something to look at.

JPD- for sure on the regenerative braking and in line with that, whatever happened to the hydraulic system that I thought Ford was actively pursuing with Parker Hannifin

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4 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

yeah Bob, your point about the tag axle and NOT a tandem is well taken, but it just seemed to me that it wasn't a tag axle, wheel/tire diameter was identical to live axle, had dual wheels.  Yeah I know, some are.  But anyway.  I'm trying to envision the next generation mediums using class 1 thru 5 sheet metal ( will they be aluminum?) and I like it!

Joe, May well have been same size rubber but unless some shade tree mechanic did a junk yard swap it was not a live tandem.  I think you can use same rubber on certain tags/pushers- they just don't have much lift

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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JPD- for sure on the regenerative braking and in line with that, whatever happened to the hydraulic system that I thought Ford was actively pursuing with Parker Hannifin

Maybe competing interests within Ford, those wanting to peruse hydraulic hybrid versus Edison (?) teams work and collaborations with other manufacturers. The cost of electrics and bateries coming down may be bringing electric hybrids closer to reality in trucks....maybe as extensions of F150 HEV and BEV work?

Edited by jpd80
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14 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JPD- for sure on the regenerative braking and in line with that, whatever happened to the hydraulic system that I thought Ford was actively pursuing with Parker Hannifin

 

If I remember correctly, there was a lot of interest in the Hydro-Hybrid set up, but then it just dissipated. I would assume that the cost vs return on investment as well as the complexity of the system was what doomed it to the giant scrap heap of automotive ideas in the sky...Electric-Hybrid systems are cheaper and more durable over the long haul plus the installation flexibility makes it a better solution with no hydraulic lines and related reservoir tanks that are filled with fluids that make a giant mess when a leak springs up.  

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1 hour ago, twintornados said:

 

If I remember correctly, there was a lot of interest in the Hydro-Hybrid set up, but then it just dissipated. I would assume that the cost vs return on investment as well as the complexity of the system was what doomed it to the giant scrap heap of automotive ideas in the sky...Electric-Hybrid systems are cheaper and more durable over the long haul plus the installation flexibility makes it a better solution with no hydraulic lines and related reservoir tanks that are filled with fluids that make a giant mess when a leak springs up.  

TT- I hear you for sure on the mess associated with fluid leaks.  But I tell you I think I would rather deal with a potential oil leak, then the mayhem corrosion creates on electrical systems on a HD vehicle once it is say 5 years old. 

 

I think perhaps the biggest knock on the hydraulic assist systems was the weight associated with the containment tank.  Then again, how much do batteries/electric motors add to an electric hybrid system?  I was also thinking about JPD's reference to regenerative braking.  I think the hydraulic systems were also intended to absorb braking energy so that reduced brake maintenance was an added benefit to the fuel saving in getting a 50,000 lb plus vehicle moving from rest.

 

Then again, I'm sure it was an option that was beat to death- just wonder as all technologies keep improving,  if it might surface again from that "scap heap of automotive ideas" you correctly describe

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7 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

TT- I hear you for sure on the mess associated with fluid leaks.  But I tell you I think I would rather deal with a potential oil leak, then the mayhem corrosion creates on electrical systems on a HD vehicle once it is say 5 years old. 

 

I think perhaps the biggest knock on the hydraulic assist systems was the weight associated with the containment tank.  Then again, how much do batteries/electric motors add to an electric hybrid system?  I was also thinking about JPD's reference to regenerative braking.  I think the hydraulic systems were also intended to absorb braking energy so that reduced brake maintenance was an added benefit to the fuel saving in getting a 50,000 lb plus vehicle moving from rest.

 

Then again, I'm sure it was an option that was beat to death- just wonder as all technologies keep improving,  if it might surface again from that "scap heap of automotive ideas" you correctly describe

Thanks Bob, perhaps the focus changed to electric hybrid  because it  is an extension of development work

already underway with light vehicles.  I can imagine that it's much easier to increase motor size and batteries

for  HD truck and start from scratch with developing a Hyd Hybrid system when the tech path for electrification

is already known in light duty trucks and can be brought across to HD more easily then hydraulics..

 

There's probably nothing wrong with Hyd Hybrid tech just that it's now seen as isolated and different to Electrification

where all the funding is going...other companies may see advantage in developing a free standing hyd hybrid system

that can be retro-fitted to new conventional trucks and also older trucks.

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8 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

I think perhaps the biggest knock on the hydraulic assist systems was the weight associated with the containment tank.  Then again, how much do batteries/electric motors add to an electric hybrid system?

With modern battery tech, they probably have more flexibility in the location and shape of the batteries, so the weight can be more easily distributed into otherwise unused areas--where you'd need a fairly large single volume for a hydraulic tank, you could, in theory, break the batteries down into smaller units and stash them wherever you have some empty space. And as was mentioned elsewhere, with the electrical hybrid systems, they can leverage a much larger electrification program (one that covers the full range of Ford products) instead of having to do it all from scratch--and, more importantly, bear all of the costs on a relatively small operation.

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And how easy is it for Ford to add different engines to its 10-speed hybrid gearboxes,

a great way for Ford to gain scales of economy and rapid deployment of hybrid tech.

 

The strategy is also so much more than just one vehicle type, it's electrifying the whole

of its RWD portfolio - trucks, SUVs, Vans and Mustang, so achieving many things at

the one time but with the least amount development time and resources.

Edited by jpd80
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1 hour ago, ausrutherford said:

I wouldn't mind seeing Ford re-enter the LCF market in the medium truck market. They could do it rather easily since most of the engineering has been completed:

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTTm81X9uLXjgkBJxt7jnR

 

Ford could source the cab from Chinese partner JMC for a class 5/6/7 CoE warrior and engineer either E-Series chassis or F53/59 strip chassis to compete in that arena at a great price point. As for class 8 vocational double rear axle...I don't think Ford would enter that range any time soon.

 Image result for jmc truck 2019

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1 minute ago, twintornados said:

 

Ford could source the cab from Chinese partner JMC for a class 5/6/7 CoE warrior and engineer either E-Series chassis or F53/59 strip chassis to compete in that arena at a great price point. As for class 8 vocational double rear axle...I don't think Ford would enter that range any time soon.

 Image result for jmc truck 2019

Cargo would be easier than using JMC I think. The stamping could be used from the closed Brazil plant. 

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Anyone catch the second paragraph?:

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/09/04/ford-brazil-plant-caoa/

 

I wonder if "push to exit the heavy truck market" also means Otosan.

 

Exor, the parent of FCA and CNH/FPT/Iveco, recently announced plans to separate Iveco from CNH.  Rumor is that Iveco may be spun off.  If so, Iveco as a stand-alone could be a logical partner for Ford's former Brazilian truck operations and the truck unit of Otosan.  Iveco has had ties with Otosan in the past as an engine supplier through FPT.  A combination of Iveco, Ford Brazil, and Otosan could be a very viable player in the heavy truck markets of Easter Europe, Asia, and South America.    

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1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said:

Anyone catch the second paragraph?:

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/09/04/ford-brazil-plant-caoa/

 

I wonder if "push to exit the heavy truck market" also means Otosan.

 

Exor, the parent of FCA and CNH/FPT/Iveco, recently announced plans to separate Iveco from CNH.  Rumor is that Iveco may be spun off.  If so, Iveco as a stand-alone could be a logical partner for Ford's former Brazilian truck operations and the truck unit of Otosan.  Iveco has had ties with Otosan in the past as an engine supplier through FPT.  A combination of Iveco, Ford Brazil, and Otosan could be a very viable player in the heavy truck markets of Easter Europe, Asia, and South America.    

Now that's an interesting proposition,  I wonder if VW-Man  is another option for Ford.

Edited by jpd80
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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

Didn't Ford just show off that new F-Max thing, though?  If they were planning on exiting the heavy truck market, I doubt they'd put resources into debuting such a concept.

Correct-and it is not a concept-it is a production truck and they are expanding their distribution network.

 

What has happened in Brazil has no relationship to what Ford is doing elsewhere- at least IMO.  Hope I'm not wrong. 

 

Don't expect to see the F-Max in the US but I do believe that the bulk of Ford heavy truck engineering is done in Turkey. And if Ford intends on being a key player in commercial vehicles, I would think they would need that continued expertise-and it probably is not confined to just class 8.

 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Correct-and it is not a concept-it is a production truck and they are expanding their distribution network.

 

What has happened in Brazil has no relationship to what Ford is doing elsewhere- at least IMO.  Hope I'm not wrong. 

 

Don't expect to see the F-Max in the US but I do believe that the bulk of Ford heavy truck engineering is done in Turkey. And if Ford intends on being a key player in commercial vehicles, I would think they would need that continued expertise-and it probably is not confined to just class 8.

 

 

I was actually thinking of this thing when I mentioned F-Max:

 

Image result for ford f max concept

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