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Not seeing it being the Cargo.  I figure Ford would need to come up with a compliant engine for it, engineer it in, and get it certified.  That won't be cheap, and figuring Ford might get 15% of that market than means what, maybe 2000 sales/year?  Might have been feasible importing the Cargo from Brazil, but it's going out of production there.     

 

2023 is when the next generation Super Duty is due.  Hino's expansion to build class 8's was minimal because that is a new and very large plant, and their new class 8 is not much more than new axles for their existing truck. 

 

Still, a new product for Avon Lake is very intriguing!   

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32 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

Not seeing it being the Cargo.  I figure Ford would need to come up with a compliant engine for it, engineer it in, and get it certified.  That won't be cheap, and figuring Ford might get 15% of that market than means what, maybe 2000 sales/year?  Might have been feasible importing the Cargo from Brazil, but it's going out of production there.     

 

2023 is when the next generation Super Duty is due.  Hino's expansion to build class 8's was minimal because that is a new and very large plant, and their new class 8 is not much more than new axles for their existing truck. 

 

Still, a new product for Avon Lake is very intriguing!   

I do believe the 100 million was for the new plant/class 8 expansion.

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3 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

I do believe the 100 million was for the new plant/class 8 expansion.

 

Ford is so hopeless when it comes to new vehicle launches that it just might cost them $900M to do what Hino can do for $100M!  Seriously, $900M is a tremendous amount of money to throw at one plant, maybe it includes costs associated with tooling up for the next generation Super Duty in addition to a new product.  Who knows at this point, but I am sure in coming months the picture will become more clear.

 

In other truck news, with Romeo closing some are speculating the 6.2L's days are numbered.  Its availability will be down to just the F-250 and F-350 for 2020.  Could it be going to Dearborn Engine?

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9 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

....Still, a new product for Avon Lake is very intriguing!   

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/ford-is-said-to-shift-plans-again-for-underused-mustang-plant

 

Quote

Ford no longer intends to build electric vehicles alongside Mustangs at its plant in Flat Rock, south of Detroit, according to the people, who asked not to be identified. The product now appears to be heading to the automaker’s plant in Avon Lake, Ohio, where it’s investing $900 million to build an unspecified new product in 2023.

 

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9 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

....Still, a new product for Avon Lake is very intriguing!   

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/ford-is-said-to-shift-plans-again-for-underused-mustang-plant

 

Quote

Ford no longer intends to build electric vehicles alongside Mustangs at its plant in Flat Rock, south of Detroit, according to the people, who asked not to be identified. The product now appears to be heading to the automaker’s plant in Avon Lake, Ohio, where it’s investing $900 million to build an unspecified new product in 2023.

 

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1 hour ago, twintornados said:

Well I guess that for sure puts a nail in the coffin as far as seeing a serious push to build the class 6/7 and baby 8 market share.  To quote from my earlier post....Now that is good news..  Before we get too excited they seem to have a habit of counting electrification of existing models as "new vehicles"' or so it seems to me.

Sad to  say, partially right.  Not electrification of "existing models",  but rather something new from ground up.  

 

And hopefully, before all these electrics go into production, California will have totally rebuilt its electricity distribution system so they can keep the power on 24/7?

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43 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Well I guess that for sure puts a nail in the coffin as far as seeing a serious push to build the class 6/7 and baby 8 market share.  To quote from my earlier post....Now that is good news..  Before we get too excited they seem to have a habit of counting electrification of existing models as "new vehicles"' or so it seems to me.

Sad to  say, partially right.  Not electrification of "existing models",  but rather something new from ground up.  

 

And hopefully, before all these electrics go into production, California will have totally rebuilt its electricity distribution system so they can keep the power on 24/7?

 

I am thinking something EV-ish that would bode well with the new VW alliance....Amazon delivery vans anyone???

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$900M is starting to make sense if Ford is going to clear Avon Lake out and make BEV's there starting in 2023.  The UAW contract says cab and chassis, stripped chassis, and the E series production continues at Avon Lake, but that is for the duration of the new UAW contract.  The 'new product' comes in 2023, right around the end of the new contract.  I wonder if the commercial trucks will eventually go back to KTP.

Edited by 7Mary3
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On 11/2/2019 at 10:03 PM, 7Mary3 said:

$900M is starting to make sense if Ford is going to clear Avon Lake out and make BEV's there starting in 2023.  The UAW contract says cab and chassis, stripped chassis, and the E series production continues at Avon Lake, but that is for the duration of the new UAW contract.  The 'new product' comes in 2023, right around the end of the new contract.  I wonder if the commercial trucks will eventually go back to KTP.

 

KTP doesn't have the capacity.

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North American Commercial Vehicle show last week.   Ford a "no show" .  May have no significance other than they spent all their money on Work Truck Show .  In any case some people would view that as a negative sign..

On other side of coin my local Ford dealer just hired a guy to be commercial manager and they have all kinds of 550's and even a PS 750 on property.  Unique family owned operation with one Ford store  and a Lincoln store  20  miles away.  If Ford stays in, a good  move as there was no Ford dealership into mediums in this part of state.

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Bob, Cadillac ambulances?  A guy down the street from me back 50 years ago had an ambulance biz with a 3 bay garage under his house with 1950/1960 Packards!  These monsters lumbered down the street past my house heading for an accident on the highway 5 times a day or more!  Another guy who I became friends with as I grew older when I was a volunteer fireman, owned about 12 wreckers.  This is back 50 years ago!  Nobody had 12 wreckers back then!  Well at least not in a town of just 40,000 people!  Among them was an Autocar, White, Ford F700/750 tandem axle, F600 or 650,  two huge Macks, three or four Chevy and Ford class 3 or 4, Dodge Power Wagon.  Between the wrecker company owner and the ambulance owner, you'd be extricated by the tow truck co., and medically diagnosed by the ambulance owner!!!  That was it!  No EMT's , and fire dept. response was minimal and only to wash down gasoline or put out fire.  Anyway, Transport Topics reports the big truck makers will be at the Atlanta NACV show.  Apparently they mean BIG TRUCK makers, not big TRUCK MAKERS, because Ford is not mentioned, but Hino is!  A real shame Hino is outdoing Ford!  Who would have thought?!  Eh, but Ford can't even launch an Explorer right, how can they be expected to produce a class 8 truck!!!!!? Little ole Hino outshining the Ford Motor Company, a company in business since 1903, in big trucks!  Sad, very sad.  Almost to the point of laughter!

Edited by Joe771476
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20 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

North American Commercial Vehicle show last week.   Ford a "no show" .  May have no significance other than they spent all their money on Work Truck Show .  In any case some people would view that as a negative sign..

On other side of coin my local Ford dealer just hired a guy to be commercial manager and they have all kinds of 550's and even a PS 750 on property.  Unique family owned operation with one Ford store  and a Lincoln store  20  miles away.  If Ford stays in, a good  move as there was no Ford dealership into mediums in this part of state.

 

Well a knowledgeable person set me straight on the NACV issue.  Bottom line  Ford views this as pretty much as class 8 show and their show budget is  better spent on all the shows  that cover class 1-7-the true "commercial"market.  Like the Work Truck Show in March.  Ford is  the largest exhibitor at that event.

 

As for  Hino I finally took  the time to check out their web site and look at their spec sheets.  Would you believe  one page!  Frame options for example? None!  Now thx to Ice Capades, if you look  at the  750 order guides?  like 12 + pages.   all kinds of frame options and other options like  options dependent on center of gravity needs,  stuff like that.  Most glaring absence?    engine/trans options but we have beat that to death.

 

Ford should be incorporating that message into their ads vs. the same old "we have quiet interiors vs our old Power Stroke, blah blah.  They do have a good message to tell-they just don't do it.

 

Joe-by the way Chevrolet is  not at NACV either for what it is worth.  Still have not seen a new  class 4-6 bow tie on road yet.  Dealers are advertising them as in stock though.

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On 11/5/2019 at 8:53 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

 Most glaring absence?    engine/trans options but we have beat that to death.

 

Wondering how many engine/trans options Hino has? It looks like the XL line (class 7/8) has a 8.9L (AO9) diesel that is built by them as is the Medium line engine (JO8E) 8.0L diesel...

Edited by twintornados
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On 11/10/2019 at 6:54 AM, Joe771476 said:

HDT mag article  said Ford and 3 other mfrs. had an increase in class7,  but class Ford sales were down 1000.

I have year to date  figures up to September and Ford has increased Class 7 sales  but they

only sell about two hundred of them a month....class 6 is nine or ten times as many trucks.

Ford..................YTD Sept '18.............YTD Sept '19...................Percentage

Class 7..............1,761.........................1,301....................................35.4

Edited by jpd80
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8 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

Wondering how many engine/trans options Hino has? It looks like the XL line (class 7/8) has a 8.9L (AO9) diesel that is built by them as is the Medium line engine (JO8E) 8.0L diesel...

My comment about a "glaring absence" is my opinion that the Power Stroke is viewed by many as a "pick up truck" motor.  And to  probably a lesser degree, the Torqueshift trans is viewed in a similar negative light.  I know people who were so badly burned by the  6.0/6.4 issue that it will be a long time before they ever look at Ford again.

Now I say to them..."6.7 is a completely different animal- thousands of them doing well in class 4 and 5".   They don't want to hear it.

 

Im not suggesting the 6.7/Torqueshift combo should go away in 650/750.  I'm sure there are plenty of buyers who are satisfied with that combo and it works well for them. And as for the profitability of that internal combo, I'm sure it makes money for Ford. I'm just suggesting that a 6 cylinder and say an Allison trans would to a lot of buyers, make Ford once again an attractive alternative. Now the 9 liter Turk?  That I'm sure would get a lot of attention.

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53 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 Now the 9 liter Turk?  That I'm sure would get a lot of attention.

 

That would be a great combo indeed for Class 7...but maybe with an Eaton transmission since Ford already uses it behind the big Turk motor. But, if there is to be an "outsider" supplier for transmissions (I think the 6R140 would handle it nicely) maybe an Allison transmission can be brought in. Make it a class exclusive for F750. Either 7.3L gasser with the Ford transmission, or the 9.0L Ecotorq / Allison (or Eaton) combo is the only diesel option in class 7 and vocational 8. The 6.7L Powerstroke can be available in all else up to F650.

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On 11/10/2019 at 7:29 PM, Bob Rosadini said:

My comment about a "glaring absence" is my opinion that the Power Stroke is viewed by many as a "pick up truck" motor.  And to  probably a lesser degree, the Torqueshift trans is viewed in a similar negative light.  I know people who were so badly burned by the  6.0/6.4 issue that it will be a long time before they ever look at Ford again.

I was working in Engine Engineering during those very bad times.  Ford bought back hundreds if not thousands of those truck under state lemon laws.

 

The interesting footnote is, everyone of them was fixed and sold as a used vehicle.  State law MAY have required full disclosure, but the warranty clock was reset.  The receiving dealer had first shot at buying the unit from Ford.  Once they owned it, that could replace any part they wanted short of the short block and heads before selling it.  This whole procedure cost Ford hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

2 suppliers that Ford will never buy from again: Navistar and Firestone.

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Ford needs to take a hint from Hino.  Hino realizes that in order to be a viable and serious player in Class 6 and 7, they have to be in class 8.  If Ford doesn't get that, I see no future for Ford in the medium duty segment.  Let Ram do it, they're already killing Ford in Class 3 thru 5.  It started when Daimler owned Chrysler and they told customers they were the only company that was a full-line producer and that they could supply them with class 1 (Dodge/Ram) thru 8 (Freightliner and Sterling) trucks.  

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5 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Ford needs to take a hint from Hino.  Hino realizes that in order to be a viable and serious player in Class 6 and 7, they have to be in class 8.  If Ford doesn't get that, I see no future for Ford in the medium duty segment.  Let Ram do it, they're already killing Ford in Class 3 thru 5.  It started when Daimler owned Chrysler and they told customers they were the only company that was a full-line producer and that they could supply them with class 1 (Dodge/Ram) thru 8 (Freightliner and Sterling) trucks.  

Joe, I would settle for "baby 8".   Add a tandem axle and a 9+ liter engine and they are there.  And it fits the "commercial truck" segment.  I've always been  of the belief that if its not a KW or a Pete, the owner operator segment wants no part of it.  F'liner makes a good attempt but to me it is still a fleet truck for the JB Hunts, Schnieders etc of the world.

 

Back to the baby 8 issue, if you  wanted to go beyond 9 liter, that would still make a good vocational tractor which is a market I think  Ford could serve.   While Ford tried for the owner operator market,  other than some fanatics like us, it was a losing battle.  Fleet tractors? 90" BBC and 106 BBC, the fleet business was good.

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