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22 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Not going to happen !  Those engines would require a lot of work to make them compliant with CARB/EPA emission standards.  Buying and engine or transmission from someone else would eat up most profit from those vehicles.

I thought the EPA and Euro diesel emissions standards had been harmonized a few years back. Was that only for passenger cars?

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6 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

I thought the EPA and Euro diesel emissions standards had been harmonized a few years back. Was that only for passenger cars?

 

For light duty vehicles they are pretty much the same, only minor difference.

 

For trucks, I think EPA is further ahead of Euro but they will end up being very similar eventually. 

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On 12/22/2020 at 2:39 AM, 7Mary3 said:

I would really like to try an F-650 with a Landi CNG 7.3L in it.  I have no illusions it would be any good over about 20,000 lbs. though.  

 

Just like gasoline, the best CNG injectors are made by Bosch.

 

If Ford wanted to (i.e. there was sufficient demand), Ford could know out there own CNG system within 2-3 years of them saying "go".  Several years ago there was a demonstration CNG vehicle driving around Dearborn done by a start up comprised of a couple of ex-Ford engineer.  Lots of attention at the low/mid  level engineering management, but nothing from marketing.

 

Also knowing the "insides" of the current PCM, Ford could easily add CNG. 

 

It is just not cost effective (CNG tanks are ridiculously expensive) unless you happen to live in an area with extremely cheap CNG.  (I can't find the map now, but last time I checked, CNG was selling for <$1.00 in parts of OK and TX.)

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6 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

A bit of news that should help Ford...Hino has shut down all truck production until September as a  result of some apparent diesel "certification issues"!

 

Good....screw them.  :)

 

This will definitely help Ford.  On the Class 6 trucks, Hino and Ford cross-shop each other the most given they are both on the low end of the price spectrum.  

 

For 2022MY, there are new EPA Green House Gas (GHG) "Phase 2" rules related to carbon pollution/fuel mileage of trucks.  In a nutshell Hino is shutting down production because their engine is very inefficient with poor fuel mileage so they are shutting it down until they can design something that meets the new standards.   Starting with 2022MY, the manufacturers have to submit more info and a "GEM Score" to the EPA on every truck they build so the EPA can make sure, when looking at total sales, the OEM is complying with the new regs.

 

In addition, it will be a federal violation to make any change to a commercial vehicle that negatively impacts fuel mileage AFTER the vehicle is titled.  For example, many trucks have 5 minute idle shutdowns on them, and if a customer buys it and comes back 4 months later and wants you to remove the idle shutdown we cannot do it anymore.  It must be done prior to the first retail sale and if you change something between the time the truck is built and the time it's titled, that's okay, but the dealer has to report this to the OEM.    After the vehicle is sold you can no longer do things like engine uprates, rear axle carrier exchanges to get a numerically higher axle ratio,  changing transmission parameters from "economy to performance", etc.  

 

It's a mess....and not sure how they will be able to police this activity once the trucks are built but that's the rules.

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Hino didn't even get their announced class 8 trucks on the market.  Their J08 engine is reliable, but not as efficient as other 8L engines on the market and it's too big for class 6 anyway.

 

Wonder what effect Phase 2 GHG rules will have on gasoline engine trucks over 14,000 lbs. GVW......    

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Based on 2019 class 6 sales, Ford had around 30% while International and Freightliner each hold about 27% a piece

and Hino is about 10%.  As expected, sales in 2020 are significantly down but appear to be staying in proportion.

While the players have very different customers, that non-direct competition strategy seems to be working.

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51 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Based on 2019 class 6 sales, Ford had around 30% while International and Freightliner each hold about 27% a piece

and Hino is about 10%.  As expected, sales in 2020 are significantly down but appear to be staying in proportion.

While the players have very different customers, that non-direct competition strategy seems to be working.

 

JP-good stats but going back to when I would lift the stats off HDT on a monthly basis and would see Ford consistently above Hino,  based on  my observations here in New England I always found them  hard to believe.  I would rank Hino very close to International and F'liner .For one thing, I think its safe to say that none of the short term national rental fleets are Ford customers-I don't think of U Haul in  that class.  Glad to see Ford has such a good number in class 6 so must be a New England thing with some very aggressive Hino dealers moving the numbers.

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6 hours ago, iamweasel said:

 

Good....screw them.  :)

 

This will definitely help Ford.  On the Class 6 trucks, Hino and Ford cross-shop each other the most given they are both on the low end of the price spectrum.  

 

For 2022MY, there are new EPA Green House Gas (GHG) "Phase 2" rules related to carbon pollution/fuel mileage of trucks.  In a nutshell Hino is shutting down production because their engine is very inefficient with poor fuel mileage so they are shutting it down until they can design something that meets the new standards.   Starting with 2022MY, the manufacturers have to submit more info and a "GEM Score" to the EPA on every truck they build so the EPA can make sure, when looking at total sales, the OEM is complying with the new regs.

 

In addition, it will be a federal violation to make any change to a commercial vehicle that negatively impacts fuel mileage AFTER the vehicle is titled.  For example, many trucks have 5 minute idle shutdowns on them, and if a customer buys it and comes back 4 months later and wants you to remove the idle shutdown we cannot do it anymore.  It must be done prior to the first retail sale and if you change something between the time the truck is built and the time it's titled, that's okay, but the dealer has to report this to the OEM.    After the vehicle is sold you can no longer do things like engine uprates, rear axle carrier exchanges to get a numerically higher axle ratio,  changing transmission parameters from "economy to performance", etc.  

 

It's a mess....and not sure how they will be able to police this activity once the trucks are built but that's the rules.

good info 'Weasel, but just what is a "GEM " score.  And as mpg numbers are not required on the higher class trucks (3? and higher) what is the new yard stick?  And does this "scoring" take place after a vehicle is titled, does that mean sale of the chassis?  Or after a final certification  by a body installer?   So I'm in the lumber business and I have a new flatbed.  Six months after I buy it I decide I'm going to convert it to a box so I can haul mill work/windows,doors.  My MPG goes to hell now as I'm pushing "wind" with a 12' box. ??????

 

Government run amok -again!   

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3 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

good info 'Weasel, but just what is a "GEM " score.  And as mpg numbers are not required on the higher class trucks (3? and higher) what is the new yard stick?  And does this "scoring" take place after a vehicle is titled, does that mean sale of the chassis?  Or after a final certification  by a body installer?   So I'm in the lumber business and I have a new flatbed.  Six months after I buy it I decide I'm going to convert it to a box so I can haul mill work/windows,doors.  My MPG goes to hell now as I'm pushing "wind" with a 12' box. ??????

 

Government run amok -again!   

Greenhouse Gas Emission Modelling. It's a desktop computer modelling program that estimates greenhouse gas emissions on medium duty and heavy trucks.

 

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Greenhouse Gas Emission Modelling. It's a desktop computer modelling program that estimates greenhouse gas emissions on medium duty and heavy trucks.

 

Thx...And to quote Weasel..."not sure how they are going to enforce it".  Answer?  Probably they are not or after they publish a BS reg they will try to figure out the rest of it.  As Nancy P once said..." well let's just pass it and then we will read it"

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45 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx...And to quote Weasel..."not sure how they are going to enforce it".  Answer?  Probably they are not or after they publish a BS reg they will try to figure out the rest of it.  As Nancy P once said..." well let's just pass it and then we will read it"

Stupid and complicated plays to government bureaucracy's wheelhouse Bob, meddlers can't change their ways...

 

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19 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Hino didn't even get their announced class 8 trucks on the market.  Their J08 engine is reliable, but not as efficient as other 8L engines on the market and it's too big for class 6 anyway.

 

Wonder what effect Phase 2 GHG rules will have on gasoline engine trucks over 14,000 lbs. GVW......    

 

Why is an 8L too big for class 6?  I'd argue that most people should buy an 8-9L engine in their class 6 truck.  Most people buy 5-6L motors in that segment because they don't know what they're doing and/or they are (wrongly) focused on up-front cost, not overall cost of ownership.

 

For example, if I were to offer you these engine options in an otherwise identical 26K GVWR cab & chassis what would you pick:

 

1)  Baseline option = 7L (non-sleeved) engine with B50 life of 250,000 miles

2)  For $2,000 more = 9L (sleeved) engine with a B50 life of 450,000 miles

 

B50 = Average time to overhaul/average life expectancy of the engine.  The average mileage per year on a class 6 truck is 40-50K.  These trucks cost in the $70-80K range, so what's another $2,000 to get an engine that lasts nearly twice as long **and** can be overhauled easier?

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17 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Based on 2019 class 6 sales, Ford had around 30% while International and Freightliner each hold about 27% a piece

and Hino is about 10%.  As expected, sales in 2020 are significantly down but appear to be staying in proportion.

While the players have very different customers, that non-direct competition strategy seems to be working.

 

That seems a little off.  Those three add up to 94% and I know PACCAR's medium duty share is 10-12%.   (But to me "medium duty"  is class 6 & 7 sales combined, too, so maybe that's it, and Ford's total class 6-7 share is closer to 20% I think.)  I'm not on my work computer now so don't have the #'s in front of me.

 

Do you have the breakdown of what % of class 6-7 sales from Ford are gas engine vs diesel?  My data is coming from another OEM so I don't see that exact breakdown.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

good info 'Weasel, but just what is a "GEM " score.  And as mpg numbers are not required on the higher class trucks (3? and higher) what is the new yard stick?  And does this "scoring" take place after a vehicle is titled, does that mean sale of the chassis?  Or after a final certification  by a body installer?   So I'm in the lumber business and I have a new flatbed.  Six months after I buy it I decide I'm going to convert it to a box so I can haul mill work/windows,doors.  My MPG goes to hell now as I'm pushing "wind" with a 12' box. ??????

 

Government run amok -again!   

 

Type of body is not one of the governed rules so in your scenario you'd be ok.  

 

But with that conversion, lets say you also wanted more startability out of that box truck and wanted to change the rear end from a 5.13 ratio to a 6.14 - that would be prohibited.  :)

 

The final certification at the upfitter is irrelevant.  Once the truck is titled, that's when the "no negative fuel mileage changes" mandate goes into effect for those items they restrict.   Sometimes a truck is titled prior to getting the body done and sometimes it's done afterwards.  Just depends on the deal...

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4 hours ago, iamweasel said:

 

That seems a little off.  Those three add up to 94% and I know PACCAR's medium duty share is 10-12%.   (But to me "medium duty"  is class 6 & 7 sales combined, too, so maybe that's it, and Ford's total class 6-7 share is closer to 20% I think.)  I'm not on my work computer now so don't have the #'s in front of me.

 

Do you have the breakdown of what % of class 6-7 sales from Ford are gas engine vs diesel?  My data is coming from another OEM so I don't see that exact breakdown.

Ford's class 7 sales are less than 200 a month, so compared to the competition it's virtually zero.

PACCAR brands class 6 sales are less than 4,000 a year but class 7, they come alive and class 8

is just massive in comparison to the competition except maybe International. Hope that helps.

 

No I don't get gasoline diesel split outs but it's a pretty good guess that the majority of Ford's class 6 & 7 are gasoline.

Above class 6, international, Freightliner and the other recognised brands come into their own butl class6 seem to be

 a natural limit for Ford and it's in-house equipment and also why most fleet buyers chose other brands for class 7 & 8.

 

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4 hours ago, iamweasel said:

 

Why is an 8L too big for class 6?  I'd argue that most people should buy an 8-9L engine in their class 6 truck.  Most people buy 5-6L motors in that segment because they don't know what they're doing and/or they are (wrongly) focused on up-front cost, not overall cost of ownership.

 

For example, if I were to offer you these engine options in an otherwise identical 26K GVWR cab & chassis what would you pick:

 

1)  Baseline option = 7L (non-sleeved) engine with B50 life of 250,000 miles

2)  For $2,000 more = 9L (sleeved) engine with a B50 life of 450,000 miles

 

B50 = Average time to overhaul/average life expectancy of the engine.  The average mileage per year on a class 6 truck is 40-50K.  These trucks cost in the $70-80K range, so what's another $2,000 to get an engine that lasts nearly twice as long **and** can be overhauled easier?

 

Unlike class 8, engines in class 6 trucks are seldom rebuilt.  Usually by the time the engine is worn out so is the rest of the truck so further investment isn't justified.  While some delivery and rental fleets may see 50k miles a year, many class 6 fleets are nowhere near that, like utility and municipal operations.  Those fleets are usually far more concerned with operating economy and purchase price than engine life, as long as the engine chosen can reasonably be expected to last as long as the truck does.  That having been said, I think we will see more 4 cylinder diesels around 5L in class 6 trucks.  The Isuzu 4HK-1 is a prime example.  It has adequate power for a truck up to 26,000 lbs. GVW, a B10 life of 375,000 miles, and delivers excellent reliability and fuel economy.   

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On 12/24/2020 at 7:36 PM, 7Mary3 said:

 

Unlike class 8, engines in class 6 trucks are seldom rebuilt.  Usually by the time the engine is worn out so is the rest of the truck so further investment isn't justified.  While some delivery and rental fleets may see 50k miles a year, many class 6 fleets are nowhere near that, like utility and municipal operations.  Those fleets are usually far more concerned with operating economy and purchase price than engine life, as long as the engine chosen can reasonably be expected to last as long as the truck does.  That having been said, I think we will see more 4 cylinder diesels around 5L in class 6 trucks.  The Isuzu 4HK-1 is a prime example.  It has adequate power for a truck up to 26,000 lbs. GVW, a B10 life of 375,000 miles, and delivers excellent reliability and fuel economy.   

 

Mui's are a completely different animal so I agree on that, but lets not forget hours on the engine is almost as important as miles so even customers like high-idle utility companies could benefit from a longer lasting engine.  (That being said Muni's and Utility companies only account for about 20% of sales in class 6-7.  A majority of the sales are regular retail buyers who are putting 40K miles per year or more on their trucks.) 

 

The problem with stating that those 5-6L engines don't get overhauled or replaced that much, which is true, is that most companies would be able to defer scrapping their trucks longer if the just paid a little more to get a better, long-lasting engine.  Most of the time when the engines blow the rest of the truck is still in very usable shape.  If you run your trucks 40K miles per year you can either:

 

1)  Buy a 5-6L truck for $75K and replace it every 6.25 years -OR-

2)  Buy a 8-9L truck for $77K and replace it every 11.25 years.

 

For me, at least for those running 40K+ miles per year (or equivalent hours) it makes no sense to buy a 5-6L engine given how little the premium is to move up a notch.  (And in some cases there is no premium at all.  On the Freightliner side, you can get a 260HP DD8 for the same price as a 260HP Cummins B6.7, and that is a complete no-brainer decision for most now.  The DD8's B50 is twice as long as the B6.7.)

 

You're right on 4 cylinders coming, too.  Freightliner has one as well, the Detroit DD5 which has a B10 of 410,000 miles which is used in 26K GVWR trucks. 

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On 12/24/2020 at 5:32 PM, jpd80 said:

Ford's class 7 sales are less than 200 a month, so compared to the competition it's virtually zero.

PACCAR brands class 6 sales are less than 4,000 a year but class 7, they come alive and class 8

is just massive in comparison to the competition except maybe International. Hope that helps.

 

No I don't get gasoline diesel split outs but it's a pretty good guess that the majority of Ford's class 6 & 7 are gasoline.

Above class 6, international, Freightliner and the other recognised brands come into their own butl class6 seem to be

 a natural limit for Ford and it's in-house equipment and also why most fleet buyers chose other brands for class 7 & 8.

 

Your point is well taken as far as Ford's class 7 performance.  You have to be in Class 8 if you want customers to take you seriously in Class 7.  Somehow, I think light duty should be Class 1 thru 4, Medium 5 & 6, and Heavy 7 & 8.

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2 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Your point is well taken as far as Ford's class 7 performance.  You have to be in Class 8 if you want customers to take you seriously in Class 7.  Somehow, I think light duty should be Class 1 thru 4, Medium 5 & 6, and Heavy 7 & 8.

 

Class 5 and 6 almost have nothing in common, component-wise.  Your biggest class 6 sellers (Freightliner M2 & International DuraStar/MV) do not sell many of those models as class 5 trucks - a vast majority of those model sales are class 6 & 7.   The models/specs available for class 5 are a lot different than what you get in class 6 with most OEM's.

 

On the other hand, class 6 & 7 are darn near the same trucks (at nearly the same price)  with different axle weights.  I think that's why most people classify class 6 & 7 as medium duty and I'd agree with that.  Class 8 is a completely different world than Class 7 in my opinion.  (Different cabs/hoods, tandem axles, bigger engines/transmissions, Federal Excise Tax, etc.)

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