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7 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

Sales up about 50% over same period last year, but 4000 available as of the beginning of January.  No word of slowing production:

 

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2021/01/about-4000-2019-and-2020-silverado-md-units-remain-unsold/

Thx for that....wow-with like an inventory that represents 50% of 2020 full year volume seems like they should be thinking about following Ford.  And that is  the Chevy inventory picture.  I wonder what the  International inventory  is on the same truck?  I have to say that based on what you see on the "street", neither brand is doing well around here.  And based on a conversation I had with the owner of a new Chevy,  when I asked him why he bought that vs a Ford or Dodge, his immediate answer.."lowest price".  That is saying something -I thought  Dodge was the low ball vendor.

 

Local Ford commercial mgr at a dealership that I frequent said "business is great- just can't get trucks out of Ohio quick enough". This was about a month ago.

 

And again,  if Ford, GM and International can't take advantage of the Hino situation,  they are missing a huge opportunity.

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Just a couple of thoughts, I wonder if Ford's slowing at Avon Lake is in response to the semiconductor shortage?

 

As for pricing, my business is in the process of buying a 1-ton dually service body truck.  We have solicited bids on F-350s and Ram 3500s.  One Ram dealer came out about $2k cheaper than anyone else, but one dealer that does both Ford and Ram was about $2,000 cheaper for the Ford.  In talking to a distributor for Reading in the Mid-Atlantic, he suggested going Ford since that is what he builds the most.  We did not solicit Chevrolet because the Silverado HD is probably the ugliest vehicle since the Aztec and GMC did not have an option to build a chassis cab truck online, where Ford and Ram did.

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3 minutes ago, hwyman3 said:

Just a couple of thoughts, I wonder if Ford's slowing at Avon Lake is in response to the semiconductor shortage?

 

As for pricing, my business is in the process of buying a 1-ton dually service body truck.  We have solicited bids on F-350s and Ram 3500s.  One Ram dealer came out about $2k cheaper than anyone else, but one dealer that does both Ford and Ram was about $2,000 cheaper for the Ford.  In talking to a distributor for Reading in the Mid-Atlantic, he suggested going Ford since that is what he builds the most.  We did not solicit Chevrolet because the Silverado HD is probably the ugliest vehicle since the Aztec and GMC did not have an option to build a chassis cab truck online, where Ford and Ram did.

No I believe the Ford release was specific in terms of balancing inventory and demand. Had to laugh on your Aztec  comment.  I think of the Silverado as having a Seeburg Jukebox grill?

You going gas or Power Stroke?

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12 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

No I believe the Ford release was specific in terms of balancing inventory and demand. Had to laugh on your Aztec  comment.  I think of the Silverado as having a Seeburg Jukebox grill?

You going gas or Power Stroke?

We are going diesel.  Still waiting for one more quote to come in before we award the contract.

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8 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx for that....wow-with like an inventory that represents 50% of 2020 full year volume seems like they should be thinking about following Ford.  And that is  the Chevy inventory picture.  I wonder what the  International inventory  is on the same truck?  I have to say that based on what you see on the "street", neither brand is doing well around here.  And based on a conversation I had with the owner of a new Chevy,  when I asked him why he bought that vs a Ford or Dodge, his immediate answer.."lowest price".  That is saying something -I thought  Dodge was the low ball vendor.

 

Local Ford commercial mgr at a dealership that I frequent said "business is great- just can't get trucks out of Ohio quick enough". This was about a month ago.

 

And again,  if Ford, GM and International can't take advantage of the Hino situation,  they are missing a huge opportunity.

 

I don't think that number is too bad, it's only about 80 units per state and since most fleets don't buy 'off the lot' their order bank may be pretty healthy.  We have 6 on the road, another 4 or so at the upfitter, and are ordering a number this year.  Price is good, but one thing about these trucks is they are very upfitter friendly and usually require very little or no modifications for special bodies.  PTO installations are a bit tricky though. 

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On 2/3/2021 at 9:52 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx for that....wow-with like an inventory that represents 50% of 2020 full year volume seems like they should be thinking about following Ford.  And that is  the Chevy inventory picture.  I wonder what the  International inventory  is on the same truck?  I have to say that based on what you see on the "street", neither brand is doing well around here.  And based on a conversation I had with the owner of a new Chevy,  when I asked him why he bought that vs a Ford or Dodge, his immediate answer.."lowest price".  That is saying something -I thought  Dodge was the low ball vendor.

 

Local Ford commercial mgr at a dealership that I frequent said "business is great- just can't get trucks out of Ohio quick enough". This was about a month ago.

 

And again,  if Ford, GM and International can't take advantage of the Hino situation,  they are missing a huge opportunity.

 

Well Hino doesn't exactly have a big market share, so even with them gone there is only so much opportunity there for others to fight over the scraps.  :)

 

The main reason Hino is even relevant is because Roger Penske took an ownership stake after Freightliner capped how many units they would let Penske buy.  (Because the Freightliner Dealer Council forced that issue as they were tired of fighting over build slots.)  Penkse still buys a lot of Freightliners, of course, but they supplement their purchases with Hinos now, and if wasn't for that Hino wouldn't really be on anyone's radar these days.  I have no way to verify this, but I was told by someone I know who worked for Hino that over 50% of their sales went to Penske.  

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1 hour ago, iamweasel said:

 

Well Hino doesn't exactly have a big market share, so even with them gone there is only so much opportunity there for others to fight over the scraps.  :)

 

The main reason Hino is even relevant is because Roger Penske took an ownership stake after Freightliner capped how many units they would let Penske buy.  (Because the Freightliner Dealer Council forced that issue as they were tired of fighting over build slots.)  Penkse still buys a lot of Freightliners, of course, but they supplement their purchases with Hinos now, and if wasn't for that Hino wouldn't really be on anyone's radar these days.  I have no way to verify this, but I was told by someone I know who worked for Hino that over 50% of their sales went to Penske.  

Agree on "the Captain's" involvement.  I was told it had something to do with the distribution network?  As for Hino I was always tracking their monthly numbers on HDT when they were publishing sales and they were always gaining-in particular class 6.  I also have to say, based on my observations on the road, here in New England I always felt they WERE the gorilla in class 6 and 7.  In the rollback market, I would say they seem to be the most popular.  

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12 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Agree on "the Captain's" involvement.  I was told it had something to do with the distribution network?  As for Hino I was always tracking their monthly numbers on HDT when they were publishing sales and they were always gaining-in particular class 6.  I also have to say, based on my observations on the road, here in New England I always felt they WERE the gorilla in class 6 and 7.  In the rollback market, I would say they seem to be the most popular.  

 

Hino does have their best performance in the northeast.  In the area's I've worked in (midwest & southeast) they don't do nearly as well.  In the state I live now, they barely have 1% of the class 6-7 market.  (Note that is 1% true retail sales, most of the Penske units don't show up in our registrations since most of them are registered in Pennsylvania.)  The most telling stat is they have very low retention with their customers.  When a person buys a Hino, they are far more likely to buy something else the next time, due to various reasons.  (Poor quality, expensive parts, hard to find parts, poor dealer network, etc.)

 

They do a little better with wreckers and rollbacks in my area, too, largely due to the wrecker/rollback upfitters so focused on upfront price.  Ford does better than normal in these segments, too, for the same reason. 

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FWIW, I have heard that a high percentage of Hino's sales are to Penske.  Hino seems to do pretty well here on the west coast, but judging by who I see buying them (aside from Penske) I would agree that most of their customers are purchase price sensitive.  Hinos are big with the porta-potty pumpers for some reason....

 

Being a Toyota Group company Hino has deep pockets, which they are going to need if they want to stay in the North American commercial truck game.  Not having an engine that meets EPA/CARB standards took them out of the market.  Interesting to compare with Isuzu's strategy of cooperating with Cummins.  That partnership makes it far easier for Isuzu to stay in the game and free up capital for them to invest in BEV (and maybe hydrogen fuel cell?) technology.  Currently it will give Isuzu another OEM sales outlet for their smaller diesels through Cummins and get them access to EPA/CARB certified larger diesels for class 6 and 7 trucks, which I think will be Isuzu's next move.

 

As for Ford, I expect them to continue to be strong in class 3-4-5.  I see them staying in class 6 and 7 as long as they can make a bit of money there without too much effort.  Eventually they will have to invest in class 6 and 7 to stay relevant, and at that point a decision will have to be made whether or not to stay in it.

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13 hours ago, iamweasel said:

 

Hino does have their best performance in the northeast.  In the area's I've worked in (midwest & southeast) they don't do nearly as well.  In the state I live now, they barely have 1% of the class 6-7 market.  (Note that is 1% true retail sales, most of the Penske units don't show up in our registrations since most of them are registered in Pennsylvania.)  The most telling stat is they have very low retention with their customers.  When a person buys a Hino, they are far more likely to buy something else the next time, due to various reasons.  (Poor quality, expensive parts, hard to find parts, poor dealer network, etc.)

 

They do a little better with wreckers and rollbacks in my area, too, largely due to the wrecker/rollback upfitters so focused on upfront price.  Ford does better than normal in these segments, too, for the same reason. 

For sure on the rollback business.  Large Jerr-Dan dealer near me- yard is usually populated with Class 6 Hinos awaiting bodies or ready to go-pick your color.  I think most of these end up at one of 3 large  Hino dealers in area.  As for most hydraulic hook wreckers-19.5 gvw- Ford rules.

9 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

FWIW, I have heard that a high percentage of Hino's sales are to Penske.  Hino seems to do pretty well here on the west coast, but judging by who I see buying them (aside from Penske) I would agree that most of their customers are purchase price sensitive.  Hinos are big with the porta-potty pumpers for some reason....

 

Being a Toyota Group company Hino has deep pockets, which they are going to need if they want to stay in the North American commercial truck game.  Not having an engine that meets EPA/CARB standards took them out of the market.  Interesting to compare with Isuzu's strategy of cooperating with Cummins.  That partnership makes it far easier for Isuzu to stay in the game and free up capital for them to invest in BEV (and maybe hydrogen fuel cell?) technology.  Currently it will give Isuzu another OEM sales outlet for their smaller diesels through Cummins and get them access to EPA/CARB certified larger diesels for class 6 and 7 trucks, which I think will be Isuzu's next move.

 

As for Ford, I expect them to continue to be strong in class 3-4-5.  I see them staying in class 6 and 7 as long as they can make a bit of money there without too much effort.  Eventually they will have to invest in class 6 and 7 to stay relevant, and at that point a decision will have to be made whether or not to stay in it.

As for Isuzu giving up on their in house power,  interesting huh?  Not what we hear when the subject comes up about Ford offering an alternative to the Power Stroke.  "Can't lose the profit margin on that in house motor".

 

I (and a few other posters) continue to believe Ford is losing a lot of additional class 6/7 sales by NOT offering an alternative to Power Stroke/Torqueshift.  While it may result in a higher ATP, I say many will be willing to pay for that, (I would) and there will be beneficial economics just associated with the increased volume going through OAP to lower overall unit costs associated with plant fixed costs.

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Let's be clear, Isuzu is not giving up their 'house power' (namely the 4HK-1 5.2L).  From what I understand, they are adding larger Cummins diesels as an option in larger trucks.  Currently the largest Isuzu is the FTR, which is a class 6 but still uses the 4HK-1 diesel.  Some say it's a bit underpowered, but it's a reliable and very economical class 6 truck.  There have been rumors Isuzu wants to expand into class 7, and my guess is that will be the truck that uses the Cummins diesels.  Isuzu is already using Allison transmissions in the FTR and NQR gasoline models.  Not sure which specific Cummins Isuzu is interested in.  

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4 hours ago, twintornados said:

I am thinking since Cummins has a 5.0L V8 diesel with no OEM takers since Nissan tapped out....

 

Too small, and Isuzu has a 5.2L already.  I heard a rumor the B6.7 is being considered.  Whatever Cummins Isuzu uses it will go into a large commercial truck, possibly including a tandem axle.  These guys are getting serious.

Edited by 7Mary3
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22 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Let's be clear, Isuzu is not giving up their 'house power' (namely the 4HK-1 5.2L).  From what I understand, they are adding larger Cummins diesels as an option in larger trucks.  Currently the largest Isuzu is the FTR, which is a class 6 but still uses the 4HK-1 diesel.  Some say it's a bit underpowered, but it's a reliable and very economical class 6 truck.  There have been rumors Isuzu wants to expand into class 7, and my guess is that will be the truck that uses the Cummins diesels.  Isuzu is already using Allison transmissions in the FTR and NQR gasoline models.  Not sure which specific Cummins Isuzu is interested in.  

 

This does not say anything about .."option".  And if you are correct on them going into class 7, no doubt the 4 banger will be marginal.

 

In a recent post, Nikkei Asia reports that Isuzu will turn to Cummins for its diesel engines, which will be used in Isuzu’s “medium-size trucks requiring high horsepower.” It’s reported that the Cummins-powered Isuzu trucks will arrive in North America sometime later this year. The move is expected to save Isuzu tens of millions of dollars annually in research and development, which will help it focus on EV and next-generation technology.

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Looks like the ISB 6.7L will be going into the FTR:

 

https://www.cummins.com/news/releases/2021/02/05/cummins-and-isuzu-announce-global-mid-range-powertrain-and-advanced

 

That will give Isuzu another unique product in class 6/7, a cabover with the highly regarded ISB Cummins/Allison powertrain.  Kenworth and Peterbilt come close with their medium duty LCF's which feature 'PACCAR' (Cummins) engines, but they carry with them a higher price.  I had hoped Ford was going to import the Brazilian Cargo (perhaps retrofitted with the 6.7L Powerstroke) but unfortunately that ship has sailed. 

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11 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I had hoped Ford was going to import the Brazilian Cargo (perhaps retrofitted with the 6.7L Powerstroke) but unfortunately that ship has sailed. 

 

Ford could still bring in an LCF, but from JMC sailing in from China since that is where Cargo COE line seems to have gone to. But, I also believe that the whole LCF challenge can be answered by E-Series with a rear cab enclosure for the cut-a-way models like they do for U-Haul.

Edited by twintornados
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4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

Ford could still bring in an LCF, but from JMC sailing in from China since that is where Cargo COE line seems to have gone to. But, I also believe that the whole LCF challenge can be answered by E-Series with a rear cab enclosure for the cut-a-way models like they do for U-Haul.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know the market, but if your E-series proposal were a solution for this market, wouldn't it have been done already with how long E-series has been around?

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4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

Ford could still bring in an LCF, but from JMC sailing in from China since that is where Cargo COE line seems to have gone to. But, I also believe that the whole LCF challenge can be answered by E-Series with a rear cab enclosure for the cut-a-way models like they do for U-Haul.

 

That might work to some extent for class 3 and 4, but not 6.

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Ford decided after the LCF Navistar debacle that it doesn't need to be in COE in North America. So I don't see them changing their approach. But COE or conventional layout is kind of irrelevant once the market switches over to EV. 

 

E-series is a dead end product because medium duty cab chassis is one of those automotive segment that is going to flip to EV dominate as soon as decent products from reputable OEMs are available. Ford better have a Class 3/4/5 EV chassis under development or someone else is going to be eating Ford's lunch by the end of this decade. 

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4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I'm not going to pretend to know the market, but if your E-series proposal were a solution for this market, wouldn't it have been done already with how long E-series has been around?

 

4 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

That might work to some extent for class 3 and 4, but not 6.

 

Thats the beauty of it all...E-Series could get a needed update to compete with others in the LCF market and it would not be a lot of $$$ for Ford to do it...Ford had an E-550 for a short period and it was a decent product looking for good support. Class 3/4/5 market share could get a needed boost by a revamped E-Series cab that can be cribbed from JMC's parts bins. The chassis itself is a testament to longevity.

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5 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

 

Thats the beauty of it all...E-Series could get a needed update to compete with others in the LCF market and it would not be a lot of $$$ for Ford to do it...Ford had an E-550 for a short period and it was a decent product looking for good support. Class 3/4/5 market share could get a needed boost by a revamped E-Series cab that can be cribbed from JMC's parts bins. The chassis itself is a testament to longevity.

 

Is there any indication they want to update E Series, though?

 

I'd assume at some point they eventually will.  I remember they gave it a new interior years ago, but one would think they'd eventually want to redo the entire cab?

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12 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Is there any indication they want to update E Series, though?

 

I'd assume at some point they eventually will.  I remember they gave it a new interior years ago, but one would think they'd eventually want to redo the entire cab?

Not likely.  They may be able to get more passenger foot room now that the V10 is pretty much dead.  New cabs don't excite fleet buyers.

 

I suspect the 6.7L diesel is too tall and redesigning the exhaust and intake manifolds would be $$$ for not a huge amount of volume, although I would like to see the E-550 come back.  I still don't understand why they don't have a "full power" version of of Godzilla (7.3L gas) in the E-Series. (Too hot ?)

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