New Light & Medium Duty News

[GearheadGrrrl]

The Ford Ottosan joint venture is still building the Cargo...

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Not likely.  They may be able to get more passenger foot room now that the V10 is pretty much dead.  New cabs don't excite fleet buyers.

 

I suspect the 6.7L diesel is too tall and redesigning the exhaust and intake manifolds would be $$$ for not a huge amount of volume, although I would like to see the E-550 come back.  I still don't understand why they don't have a "full power" version of of Godzilla (7.3L gas) in the E-Series. (Too hot ?)

 

At some point the tooling runs out, though and/or the components are so out of date with the rest of the lineup.

[bzcat]

2 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

It may be "dead end" but I expect it to be around for many more years.  It is still the "platform of choice" for most Class C motorhomes.  I don't see the rental trucks changing over to F-Series as a replacement.

 

You are assuming fleet buyers still want ICE by 2030... They won't when EV options are widely available. Ford doesn't need to invest in E-class but they better be working on a medium duty EV chassis. Everyone else is plowing money into one. 

 

Class C motorhome is not big enough market to keep E-series in production once the cab-chassis market for box van and shuttle bus switches to EV.

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by bzcat

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Not likely.  They may be able to get more passenger foot room now that the V10 is pretty much dead.  New cabs don't excite fleet buyers.

 

I suspect the 6.7L diesel is too tall and redesigning the exhaust and intake manifolds would be $$$ for not a huge amount of volume, although I would like to see the E-550 come back.  I still don't understand why they don't have a "full power" version of of Godzilla (7.3L gas) in the E-Series. (Too hot ?)

I can only imagine that the two power ratings offered in E Series have to do with commercial customer needs 

and perhaps that's all that motor home buyers want too.  It could be that Ford just doesn't want to offer the 7.3

in three power ratings  simply to reduce development costs and simplify production (only two tunes).

[Bob Rosadini]

3 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

The Ford Ottosan joint venture is still building the Cargo...

Not the lower classes that were built in Brazil.  Just the heavy versions-like real heavy with planetary tandems.

[slemke]

8 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

You are assuming fleet buyers still want ICE by 2030... They won't when EV options are widely available. Ford doesn't need to invest in E-class but they better be working on a medium duty EV chassis. Everyone else is plowing money into one. 

 

Class C motorhome is not big enough market to keep E-series in production once the cab-chassis market for box van and shuttle bus switches to EV.

 

Those EV options need to be a better use of capital, though.  A lot will depend on charging infrastructure and cost of electricity vs gas, diesel, cng, etc.  My crystal ball says the future is uncertain. Too many variables and lots of puzzle pieces have to come together in a short time.  It wasn’t that long ago the experts were predicting diesels would be a significant factor.

[theoldwizard1]

20 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

You are assuming fleet buyers still want ICE by 2030... They won't when EV options are widely available. Ford doesn't need to invest in E-class but they better be working on a medium duty EV chassis. Everyone else is plowing money into one. 

My crystal ball does not see that far into the future !  Plus, "I'm from Missouri ..."

[bzcat]

14 hours ago, slemke said:

Those EV options need to be a better use of capital, though.  A lot will depend on charging infrastructure and cost of electricity vs gas, diesel, cng, etc.  My crystal ball says the future is uncertain. Too many variables and lots of puzzle pieces have to come together in a short time.  It wasn’t that long ago the experts were predicting diesels would be a significant factor.

 

Charging infrastructure is exactly why medium duty truck is going to be one of the first segment to go full or almost full EV. Delivery trucks and shuttle buses generally have predictable daily range and fixed parking at night so they don't need to rely on public charging during the day. And the lower operating cost of EV will push ICE out of the market like a tsunami. 

 

Diesel didn't happen because the added maintenance and compliance costs with emission control made it not cost effective vs. gas, at least in the US. In other countries with lax emission standards, there is no such thing as gasoline medium duty, they are 100% diesel. The cost issues won't be the case with EV. A level 2 charger is only a couple of hundred dollars - that's about 2 or 3 weeks worth of gas bill on a medium duty commercial vehicle that operates 10 hours a day. 

 

Of all the predictions about when EV will take over majority of sales a particular automotive segment, class 3/4/5 commercial is about the surest bet to happen first. This segment is nearly 100% fleet and typically have short operating range requirements. Fleet buyers are swayed by cost savings a lot more than retail buyers that may have other practical reasons to delay EV purchases.

Edited February 11, 2021 by bzcat

[twintornados]

There are several options where Ford "sells" the E-Series as a glider for third party re-fit to become an EV. This option is a bridge to a dedicated EV model that will get your municipality into a electric zero emissions ride for a less.

 

https://optimal-ev.com/

[slemke]

9 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Charging infrastructure is exactly why medium duty truck is going to be one of the first segment to go full or almost full EV. Delivery trucks and shuttle buses generally have predictable daily range and fixed parking at night so they don't need to rely on public charging during the day. And the lower operating cost of EV will push ICE out of the market like a tsunami. 

 

Diesel didn't happen because the added maintenance and compliance costs with emission control made it not cost effective vs. gas, at least in the US. In other countries with lax emission standards, there is no such thing as gasoline medium duty, they are 100% diesel. The cost issues won't be the case with EV. A level 2 charger is only a couple of hundred dollars - that's about 2 or 3 weeks worth of gas bill on a medium duty commercial vehicle that operates 10 hours a day. 

 

Of all the predictions about when EV will take over majority of sales a particular automotive segment, class 3/4/5 commercial is about the surest bet to happen first. This segment is nearly 100% fleet and typically have short operating range requirements. Fleet buyers are swayed by cost savings a lot more than retail buyers that may have other practical reasons to delay EV purchases.

It still requires infrastructure at the site.  The couple hundred dollar charger is only that cheap if you have an outlet you can plug it into.  Need to install one and the price goes up dramatically.   We were quoted 10k to install a receptacle for a break room fridge at work.  Large site may need a new service line from the power company.  Not cheap.

 

A transit has 67kwh of usable capacity.  That would take 10 plus hours to charge on level 2.

 

Bottom line, it will work for some that have the infrastructure.  Those that need to invest in infrastructure may take a more cautious approach and see what the actual return is. Initial purchase price will be an issue.  Electricity isn’t free.  Road taxes will eventually apply to BEV.  Life expectancy of the battery will play a role in the cost also.  There will be early adopters, no doubt.  If it works out well for them, more users will join in.

 

Amazon just ordered/bought  a fleet of cng trucks.  Companies will hedge their bets and buy what works out best for them.

[351cid]

Again, I ask...where is all this electricity going to come from? Infrastructure is one thing; supply is a total different set of problems. 

[Bob Rosadini]

18 minutes ago, 351cid said:

Again, I ask...where is all this electricity going to come from? Infrastructure is one thing; supply is a total different set of problems. 

I imagine from all the diesel gen sets that will be constructed to  handle peak period  situations when the sun doesn't shine, or the wind doesn't blow, or the temperature is very low and the pipeline system that delivers nat gas can't keep up with supply needs that the remaining nat gas fueled generators must have.?

 

Or who knows, maybe the idea will grow along the lines of....."Sure, but at a measured pace".  But that probably won't happen as long as the taxpayers are forced to subsidize the electric conversion.

[Bob Rosadini]

In the meantime, for you old guys a trip back to '66 and what a Super Duty was...Ask most Ford sales guys the origin of the name and they would be clueless.....

[HotRunrGuy]

37 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

In the meantime, for you old guys a trip back to '66 and what a Super Duty was...Ask most Ford sales guys the origin of the name and they would be clueless.....

 

Ah yes, back when people owned a pair of gloves, rather than demanding heated steering wheels,,,,,,

 

HRG

[theoldwizard1]

On 2/11/2021 at 12:08 PM, bzcat said:

Charging infrastructure is exactly why medium duty truck is going to be one of the first segment to go full or almost full EV. Delivery trucks and shuttle buses generally have predictable daily range and fixed parking at night so they don't need to rely on public charging during the day. And the lower operating cost of EV will push ICE out of the market like a tsunami. 

 

I agree with you but I have made the same argument for gasoline or LP/CNG over diesel for a few years, but the market still wants diesel ebgine mediums even though the have a much higher "total cost of ownership" !

[theoldwizard1]

On 2/15/2021 at 9:55 AM, 351cid said:

Again, I ask...where is all this electricity going to come from? Infrastructure is one thing; supply is a total different set of problems. 

 

I am all for "renewable"/"green" energy but I have been saying this for years.

 

If practical super conductors existed, we could cover much of AZ and NM with solar arrays and huge batteries.  Don't hear much, if any, research on this topic.  Same with no research on alternative methods (fail safe and no waste) of nuclear power.

[slemke]

13 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

 

I am all for "renewable"/"green" energy but I have been saying this for years.

 

If practical super conductors existed, we could cover much of AZ and NM with solar arrays and huge batteries.  Don't hear much, if any, research on this topic.  Same with no research on alternative methods (fail safe and no waste) of nuclear power.

Tidal power was another big idea that isn’t talked about much anymore.

 

solar panels still have an issue with disposal when their efficiency drops after 20 or 25 years.  Hopefully that will change soon.

[theoldwizard1]

9 hours ago, slemke said:

Tidal power was another big idea that isn’t talked about much anymore.

 

No one has been able to harness tidal or river flow successfully for more than a few weeks/months.

[SoonerLS]

2 minutes ago, theoldwizard1 said:

 

No one has been able to harness tidal or river flow successfully for more than a few weeks/months.

Wouldn't harnessing river flow be hydroelectric generation?

[7Mary3]

This is interesting:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cummins-build-medium-duty-engines-165959786.html

[jpd80]

VW Group’s  truck brands are already well into development of BEVs in a range of products that I’d imagine spans similar to US classes 5 through 8, maybe more than that.

 

I can imagine Ford being interested in those developments too

[7Mary3]

5 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

VW Group’s  truck brands are already well into development of BEVs in a range of products that I’d imagine spans similar to US classes 5 through 8, maybe more than that.

 

I can imagine Ford being interested in those developments too

 

What VW's truck brands, now known as Traton, do may ultimately be immaterial to Ford and even VW in the long run.  The reason for VW spinning their truck operation off is twofold.  First, it 'unlocks' the all important share price of VW as a focused car company, and likewise Traton as a truck company.  Second, it will ultimately generate capital that VW can invest in BEV technology.  The cynic in me also says invest in Ford as well.  Bottom line is that right now it's very hard to figure who is going to align with who in the great race to electrification.  Navistar, a Traton company, has recently entered into an agreement with GM for hydrogen fuel cells for heavy trucks.

 

As for Cummins, they have become the primary engine supplier to Navistar, entered into a wide ranging supply and technology agreement with Isuzu, and now has landed a epic deal with Daimler Trucks for medium duty diesel both in North America and Europe.  The real reason driving this is acknowledgment by these major truck manufacturers that diesel is dead end technology.  They do not want to spend any more money developing diesels to meet present and future emissions regulations, they what to invest that capital in BEV and fuel cell technology.  That will be left to Cummins, which make no mistake is a great win for Cummins.  However, it is a short term win.  

[Bob Rosadini]

2 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

What VW's truck brands, now known as Traton, do may ultimately be immaterial to Ford and even VW in the long run.  The reason for VW spinning their truck operation off is twofold.  First, it 'unlocks' the all important share price of VW as a focused car company, and likewise Traton as a truck company.  Second, it will ultimately generate capital that VW can invest in BEV technology.  The cynic in me also says invest in Ford as well.  Bottom line is that right now it's very hard to figure who is going to align with who in the great race to electrification.  Navistar, a Traton company, has recently entered into an agreement with GM for hydrogen fuel cells for heavy trucks.

 

As for Cummins, they have become the primary engine supplier to Navistar, entered into a wide ranging supply and technology agreement with Isuzu, and now has landed a epic deal with Daimler Trucks for medium duty diesel both in North America and Europe.  The real reason driving this is acknowledgment by these major truck manufacturers that diesel is dead end technology.  They do not want to spend any more money developing diesels to meet present and future emissions regulations, they what to invest that capital in BEV and fuel cell technology.  That will be left to Cummins, which make no mistake is a great win for Cummins.  However, it is a short term win.  

What I highlighted in your post must be the driver here.  Given the apparent success of the DD medium engines, how much could it cost to meet

these new Euro regs?   When these smaller Detroits were designed would you not think the new regs were a consideration?  

 

Or both VW and Daimler are all of a sudden doing whatever they can to distance themselves from commercial vehicles.  The buzz words.."focused car company" are becoming more pronounced.

 

Glad some of you guys can explain some of this "slight of hand", or so it seems to me.  

 

Whatever happened to a "diverse product mix"??

[Bob Rosadini]

A bit more explanation on Daimler from HDT...........

Cummins will take over the development, production and delivery of medium-duty engines for Daimler Trucks and Buses around the world by the second half of the decade. Daimler Truck AG announced it will halt production of medium-duty engine systems by 2029, and has signed a memorandum of understanding with Cummins.

 

The new partnership will mean Daimler’s Detriot DD5 and DD8 medium-duty engines, introduced in 2016 and 2018, respectively, will also be phased out.

“We’ll continue to offer the DD5 and DD8 until the second half of the decade with aftersales and warranty support continuing for years to follow,” Daimler Trucks North America officials told Heavy Duty Trucking.

[7Mary3]

Let that sink it.  Daimler is abandoning their own successful line of newly introduced mid-range diesels in favor of vendor supplied engines, to the point of allowing the vendor to manufacture the engines in Daimler's own plant (in Germany).  Wasn't it just a few years ago that everyone in commercial truck manufacturing was extolling the virtues of vertical integration?    FWIW, I have a strong suspicion that by 2029 electrification will start to make significant inroads in the medium duty commercial market, as other posters to this thread also believe.  It will be interesting to see exactly how much engine business Cummins actually gains from Daimler from 2029 on.