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25 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

Let that sink it.  Daimler is abandoning their own successful line of newly introduced mid-range diesels in favor of vendor supplied engines, to the point of allowing the vendor to manufacture the engines in Daimler's own plant (in Germany).  Wasn't it just a few years ago that everyone in commercial truck manufacturing was extolling the virtues of vertical integration?    FWIW, I have a strong suspicion that by 2029 electrification will start to make significant inroads in the medium duty commercial market, as other posters to this thread also believe.  It will be interesting to see exactly how much engine business Cummins actually gains from Daimler from 2029 on.   

 

I think it's more that manufacturers are afraid to get caught with their pants down on BEVs, so they're massively diverting development budgets to them.....that means cuts elsewhere, and the low hanging fruit approach is to consolidate development of parts that are projected to have lower demand with other manufacturers.

 

I wonder if Cummins next step is to work toward a power generation hybrid approach - i.e. a range extending motor that charges the batteries for long haul trucks.

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4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I think it's more that manufacturers are afraid to get caught with their pants down on BEVs, so they're massively diverting development budgets to them.....that means cuts elsewhere, and the low hanging fruit approach is to consolidate development of parts that are projected to have lower demand with other manufacturers.

 

I wonder if Cummins next step is to work toward a power generation hybrid approach - i.e. a range extending motor that charges the batteries for long haul trucks.

 

Or, more to the point, if Allison has anything in the hopper for hybrid transmissions that extend range,

 

Oops, nevermind...

https://www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com/news/hybrid-powertrain/allison-transmission-introduces-new-electric-hybrid-propulsion-system.html

 

Edited by twintornados
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8 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Let that sink it.  Daimler is abandoning their own successful line of newly introduced mid-range diesels in favor of vendor supplied engines, to the point of allowing the vendor to manufacture the engines in Daimler's own plant (in Germany).  Wasn't it just a few years ago that everyone in commercial truck manufacturing was extolling the virtues of vertical integration?    FWIW, I have a strong suspicion that by 2029 electrification will start to make significant inroads in the medium duty commercial market, as other posters to this thread also believe.  It will be interesting to see exactly how much engine business Cummins actually gains from Daimler from 2029 on.   

 

I don't think there is much upside for Cummins here.  Even though the DD5/DD8 twins have been awesome, many of the FTL dealers were slow to jump on that bandwagon because they simply were afraid to change, nothing more.  (Plus most muni's all want Cummins simply because they are set up with tools, training, etc, already.)  Because of that, Cummins is still the primary engine supplier to the M2 even today.  (I think 80% of the M2's sold in 2020CY were Cummins.)  

 

Was on a Zoom call with DTNA about this yesterday, and as others have said this was totally about saving some R&D money to put into electric, instead.  This was one space they could save some R&D and not actually lose any sales because of it given they can still make those trucks, just with all Cummins engines temporarily.  Vertical integration is still the plan, long-term, with DTNA.

 

 

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19 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Let that sink it.  Daimler is abandoning their own successful line of newly introduced mid-range diesels in favor of vendor supplied engines, to the point of allowing the vendor to manufacture the engines in Daimler's own plant (in Germany).  Wasn't it just a few years ago that everyone in commercial truck manufacturing was extolling the virtues of vertical integration?    FWIW, I have a strong suspicion that by 2029 electrification will start to make significant inroads in the medium duty commercial market, as other posters to this thread also believe.  It will be interesting to see exactly how much engine business Cummins actually gains from Daimler from 2029 on.   

 

7m-don't confuse vertical integration with the rush to embrace electrification.  And I agree with you on everyones rush to "have an engine",-and a transmission too- but everyone is reading the same playbook now.  For sure I see all the advantages of an electric motor at each wheel position but in due time.

 

Unfortunately it seems the question of the electrical grid and the battery industry to keep up seems to be an afterthought. 

I guess R. G. Letourneau was born about  50 years too soon. And for you young guys, he designed and produced a line of earth moving equipment in the 40's that featured Detroits powering a generator that fed traction motors.  I think their last year of production was in early 60s after company  was sold to Westinghouse.

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On 2/18/2021 at 8:42 AM, SoonerLS said:

Wouldn't harnessing river flow be hydroelectric generation?

The term "hydroelectric" typical refers to "falling" water, from a dam or a waterfall.

 

Several attempts have been made to submerge devices in large rivers (like the Hudson new NYC).  None have lasted very long.  Not sure why, because the flow rate is not that great.

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On 2/25/2021 at 9:25 PM, twintornados said:

 

Or, more to the point, if Allison has anything in the hopper for hybrid transmissions that extend range,

 

Oops, nevermind...

https://www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com/news/hybrid-powertrain/allison-transmission-introduces-new-electric-hybrid-propulsion-system.html

 

I wonder though, if this and bigger diesels give way to gen sets like railroads are starting to use in locomotives.

Sure, they would be more cumbersome but I wonder if someone is studying retrofitting to existing trucks...

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  • 2 weeks later...

From HDT.........

Despite a softer-than-usual medium-duty truck market, Mack Trucks officials said they’re on target with “aggressive” sales goals for its new Mack MD Class 6 and 7 medium-duty trucks introduced last year.

 

In a virtual press update March 8 as part of NTEA’s Work Truck Week, Jonathan Randall, Mack Trucks senior vice president of North American sales and commercial operations, explained that in a normal year, the medium-duty truck market is usually about 100,000. Last year, however, only saw sales in the high 70,000s, and Randall said the prediction for 2021 is about 87,000.

Nevertheless, the new trucks are seeing strong order activity, he said, with good feedback from dealers and customers.

 

The competition gets tougher.   The good news in looking at the Jan sales stats Ford must have had a good sized fleet order.

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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:

From HDT.........

Despite a softer-than-usual medium-duty truck market, Mack Trucks officials said they’re on target with “aggressive” sales goals for its new Mack MD Class 6 and 7 medium-duty trucks introduced last year.

 

In a virtual press update March 8 as part of NTEA’s Work Truck Week, Jonathan Randall, Mack Trucks senior vice president of North American sales and commercial operations, explained that in a normal year, the medium-duty truck market is usually about 100,000. Last year, however, only saw sales in the high 70,000s, and Randall said the prediction for 2021 is about 87,000.

Nevertheless, the new trucks are seeing strong order activity, he said, with good feedback from dealers and customers.

 

The competition gets tougher.   The good news in looking at the Jan sales stats Ford must have had a good sized fleet order.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the Mack.  It's not a competitive entry and they are not selling well at all.  It's a smaller cab and they have very limited options/customization of that truck so it does not appeal to many folks.  Plus, a ton of Mack/Volvo dealers already have Hino, so for every Mack medium duty they sell they are probably losing a Hino sale a lot of the time.  They are cancelling each other out.  

 

Demand is not the issue these days - supply of trucks is the biggest problem.  Right now, if I order a new Freightliner M2 I will not get it until November.  That's an 8-month wait.  In normal times you get a Freightliner truck in 60-90 days after order, so demand is sky-high right now....for Freightliner products, at least.   So I don't agree that 2021 will be below-average in medium duty sales.  The biggest issue is availability of trucks....we are selling them faster than Freightliner can build them.  

 

 

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Bob, is HDT posting sales figures again?  I think they stopped for a while. Meanwhile as Bob and I have noticed here in the northeast, it seems 99% of home fuel oil delivery trucks are PACCAR (KW/Pete). Why? This a segment that Ford could easily handle.  I mean I don't even see Internationals or Freightliners!  Somebody at PACCAR either went to every dealer in person or by mail and made them an offer they couldn't refuse!  A class 8 provider can easily go down to 6 & 7 and turn excess capacity for class 8 into medium duty sales at a cheaper cost! I'm going to say it again.  As long as Ford does not make a class 8 truck, their class 7 sales will be almost nothing.  Nobody takes Ford seriously in class 7.  Do you?

Edited by Joe771476
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I live in Los Angeles and I don't know where the Mack dealer is, let alone if we even have one.  No matter, there are plenty of Freightliner, Western Star, Peterbilt, Kenworth, International, Isuzu, Ford & Chevy commercial, and even an Autocar dealer to buy (or order) a medium duty truck from.  If many of the Mack dealers also handle Hino, maybe Hino suspending sales for 2021 will help sales of the MD. 

 

One bit of news that's creating a buzz around here is Isuzu's announcement that they will introduce a new class 7 version of their FTR.  This truck will feature a Cummins B6.7/Allison powertrain and GVW's up to 33,000 lbs..  The current FTR has found a niche here for those needing a maneuverable class 6 with excellent fuel economy, but many feel it's underpowered for some vocations.

 

Absolutely true that Covid didn't curb the demand for medium trucks, it restricted the supply.  Now we are faced with the chip shortage, and of all things a shortage of seat foam?   

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In the meantime from HDT.....

Hino Trucks announced its will produce medium- and heavy-duty Hino trucks with Cummins engines for sale in North America and accelerate its development of battery-electric trucks.

 

During the virtual 2021 NTEA Work Truck Week, Hino said it intends to offer Cummins B6.7 and L9 engines in Hino's L and XL Series models by the end of 2021.

Hino plans to redirect the engineering and other resources it would have used to develop engines to accelerate the development of the battery-electric vehicle portion of Project Z, the company's development path to zero emission vehicles. The company had previously announced plans to develop and produce a full range of Class 4 through 8 battery electric trucks by 2024. It is now planning to begin low-volume production of BEV models in the fourth quarter of 2022, ramping up to full production by the end of 2023.

 

Everyone is reading the same playbook...should have bought Cummins-..52 week low 101..high, today 274

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This is good for Cummins short-term, but keep in mind what is driving this.  Truck manufacturers don't want to spend money on meeting diesel emission regulations anymore, it's a dead-end.  Better to spend R&D money on battery and fuel cell technology.

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6 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

This is good for Cummins short-term, but keep in mind what is driving this.  Truck manufacturers don't want to spend money on meeting diesel emission regulations anymore, it's a dead-end.  Better to spend R&D money on battery and fuel cell technology.

Wasn't that the reason Cat left the on-road diesel business years ago?

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4 hours ago, hwyman3 said:

Wasn't that the reason Cat left the on-road diesel business years ago?

HM-3

I don't think so.  I think they just kept banging their heads over their ACERT systems with one headache after another.  I think it was one of those "WTF" moments where someone at the top said..."let's build what we do best...D-8's etc"

Probably others like 7M3, Iweasel etc will have more to say but I think they just said "enough- let's focus on what we do best".  Again that magic phrase  when management knows they are over their head....,"let's focus"!

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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:

HM-3

I don't think so.  I think they just kept banging their heads over their ACERT systems with one headache after another.  I think it was one of those "WTF" moments where someone at the top said..."let's build what we do best...D-8's etc"

Probably others like 7M3, Iweasel etc will have more to say but I think they just said "enough- let's focus on what we do best".  Again that magic phrase  when management knows they are over their head....,"let's focus"!

 

You're right Bob, had nothing to do with upcoming electric trucks or whatever else.  None of that stuff was even in people's minds back then.  Keep in mind, development for those 2008MY/EPA '07 and 2011MY/EPA '10 engines started back in the early 2000's.  

 

Cat and Navistar both had slightly different ideas on how to handle the PM/NoX regulations versus the others.  (Detroit, Cummins, etc.)  Of course now we know that Cat and Navistar both guessed wrong on how to handle it which crippled them going forward.  Cat exited the truck business stage-left after class action lawsuits piled up, and Navistar lost so much market share and ruined their reputation so they ended up selling out to VW.

 

The worst decision in all of that was Cat and International joining together to make a Cat-branded truck with a Maxxforce engine and a non-truck transmission.  Wow...what a mess that was, and everyone could see that train wreck coming from a mile away.  

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3 hours ago, iamweasel said:

 

You're right Bob, had nothing to do with upcoming electric trucks or whatever else.  None of that stuff was even in people's minds back then.  Keep in mind, development for those 2008MY/EPA '07 and 2011MY/EPA '10 engines started back in the early 2000's.  

 

Cat and Navistar both had slightly different ideas on how to handle the PM/NoX regulations versus the others.  (Detroit, Cummins, etc.)  Of course now we know that Cat and Navistar both guessed wrong on how to handle it which crippled them going forward.  Cat exited the truck business stage-left after class action lawsuits piled up, and Navistar lost so much market share and ruined their reputation so they ended up selling out to VW.

 

The worst decision in all of that was Cat and International joining together to make a Cat-branded truck with a Maxxforce engine and a non-truck transmission.  Wow...what a mess that was, and everyone could see that train wreck coming from a mile away.  

Ah Weasel- I always said when the great "Cat"  truck was announced...talk about a marriage made in hell!  and correct me if I'm wrong but  weren't they built in a Cat facility that had been building excavators?  I would imagine from a production perspective the three things most in common with building excavators vs highway trucks would be roof, the walls and the floor?

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4 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Ah Weasel- I always said when the great "Cat"  truck was announced...talk about a marriage made in hell!  and correct me if I'm wrong but  weren't they built in a Cat facility that had been building excavators?  I would imagine from a production perspective the three things most in common with building excavators vs highway trucks would be roof, the walls and the floor?

 

I believe it was built in Navistar's Garland, TX plant.  Pretty sure this was mostly a Navistar clone but Cat had the interior and exterior designed the way they wanted.  (Then threw in their Cat transmission to replace the Allison, which was another bad move.)

 

From what I understand, Navistar agreed to this because Cat agreed to let Navistar sell some trucks through Cat's international dealer network.  (Don't recall if those were supposed to be branded International or Cat.)  I forget the specifics of it but there was some big-picture agreement between them and of course it all fell apart in time.

 

 

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1 hour ago, 40 Mile said:

Years ago I recall, I read somewhere,  never saw one,  but wasn't there a previous effort for an on hwy truck transmission

by cat?  maybe in the '70s?

 

Cat 7155.  Yes, I think it was a torque-converter automatic.  Very few sold commercially, but pretty common in military applications.

 

https://www.steelsoldiers.com/threads/cat-7155-tranny.54233/

Edited by 7Mary3
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23 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

This is good for Cummins short-term, but keep in mind what is driving this.  Truck manufacturers don't want to spend money on meeting diesel emission regulations anymore, it's a dead-end.  Better to spend R&D money on battery and fuel cell technology.

 

Makes you wonder what is Ford's medium duty EV plan... Can't keep making E-series and F-650 forever. The clock on ICE medium duty will run out on Ford faster than many people on this forum would like to believe. 

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31 minutes ago, bzcat said:

The clock on ICE medium duty will run out on Ford faster than many people on this forum would like to believe. 

 

Yes sir bzcat. I expect that in the next 3 years, Ford's strategy to go "all in" with BEV for the passenger car and light truck market will be applied to its commercial vehicle lineup as well. Ford should have BEV versions of its Class 3 and higher trucks ready by 2025.

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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

Makes you wonder what is Ford's medium duty EV plan... Can't keep making E-series and F-650 forever. The clock on ICE medium duty will run out on Ford faster than many people on this forum would like to believe. 

Ford's Class 4 to class 7 monthly sales swing between 9,000 and 12,000 depending on delivery timing.

While BEVs will be important, going chicken Little on ICE sales might be a bit premature, hybrid might 

buy them a few extra years before the hammer drops.

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6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford's Class 4 to class 7 monthly sales swing between 9,000 and 12,000 depending on delivery timing.

While BEVs will be important, going chicken Little on ICE sales might be a bit premature, hybrid might 

buy them a few extra years before the hammer drops.

JP-

"going chicken little" is the best way to put it.  California has to deal with rolling black outs and think of the rural areas of the country that I have to believe are marginal on their current electricity  supply. 

Electric vehicles with their less costly drive lines are one thing.  Keeping them charged is another which seems to be, a secondary consideration at this point.   And sourcing of materials for batteries?  Another back burner consideration or so it seems.

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On 3/14/2021 at 12:23 AM, 7Mary3 said:

This is good for Cummins short-term, but keep in mind what is driving this.  Truck manufacturers don't want to spend money on meeting diesel emission regulations anymore, it's a dead-end. 

Ford got back into Medium Duty because they could use their own engines and transmission making it profitable.

 

With Godzilla and the 6R140 (why isn't the 10R available in Medium Duty ?) the "total cost of ownership" should be kicking butt on the rest of the world Mediums.  Yes, it has a lower payload.  Is this what is holding it back from being a sales leader ?

 

I have to believe that the rental fleet (Ujaul especially) will LOVE the F600 !

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