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3 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Ford got back into Medium Duty because they could use their own engines and transmission making it profitable.

 

With Godzilla and the 6R140 (why isn't the 10R available in Medium Duty ?) the "total cost of ownership" should be kicking butt on the rest of the world Mediums.  Yes, it has a lower payload.  Is this what is holding it back from being a sales leader ?

 

I have to believe that the rental fleet (Ujaul especially) will LOVE the F600 !

Depending on the timing of deliveries, F600 monthly sales swing between 600 and 1,000.

With regards to F650/F750 and why there's no 10R trans?

Very simply, Ford stuck the 7.3 where the 6.8 V10 was and called it job done, the fact that Ford

did the absolute minimum tells us that these sales are only gravy if they don't spend much on them.

The dilemma for Ford is that the very things needed to grow sales actually torpedoes all the savings 

made by taking F650/F750 in house. The question becomes where 1,500/mth sales is enough for Ford.

Edited by jpd80
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5 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JP-

"going chicken little" is the best way to put it.  California has to deal with rolling black outs and think of the rural areas of the country that I have to believe are marginal on their current electricity  supply. 

Electric vehicles with their less costly drive lines are one thing.  Keeping them charged is another which seems to be, a secondary consideration at this point.   And sourcing of materials for batteries?  Another back burner consideration or so it seems.

Correct. Good points.

 

Also, in my opinion , regarding the rural areas anywhere,  I would also add - high cost electricity,  remote,  and temperature extremes.

 

Edited by 40 Mile
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6 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JP-

"going chicken little" is the best way to put it.  California has to deal with rolling black outs and think of the rural areas of the country that I have to believe are marginal on their current electricity  supply. 

Electric vehicles with their less costly drive lines are one thing.  Keeping them charged is another which seems to be, a secondary consideration at this point.   And sourcing of materials for batteries?  Another back burner consideration or so it seems.

We talk about range anxiety in BEV cars and utilities but what about BEV  trucks that are  constantly loaded

and need continue power to drive them to their delivery points and return. The charging times for such 

Giant battery packs would make interstate travel uncompetitive against diesel trucks and that's before 

we even discuss the lack of BEV truck charging facilities, so any BEV trucks sold today would be almost 

compelled to return to a home base depot or a another depot.

And all of that is considered when states have fragile power networks barely capable of keeping up now...

Who's going to pay up front for all the added generation and supply infrastructure needed?

 

Edited by jpd80
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Just now, jpd80 said:

Depending on the timing of deliveries, F600 monthly sales swing between 600 and 1,000.

With regards to F650/F750 and why there's no 10R trans?

Very simply, Ford stuck the 7.3 where the 6.8 V10 was and called it job done, the fact that Ford

did the absolute minimum tells us that these sales are only gravy if they don't spend much on them.

The dilemma for Ford is that the very things needed to grow sales actually torpedoes all the savings 

made by taking F650/F750 in house. The question becomes where 1,500/mth sales is enough for Ford.

 

I don't think we will see any investment if the 650/750, Ford will just continue to market them basically 'as-is' until sales fall to the point they are no longer profitable.  Isn't Avon Lake scheduled to be re-purposed for BEV's in the next few years? 

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14 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

I don't think we will see any investment if the 650/750, Ford will just continue to market them basically 'as-is' until sales fall to the point they are no longer profitable.  Isn't Avon Lake scheduled to be re-purposed for BEV's in the next few years? 

Yes but that investment may have nothing to do with continuing F650/F750.

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20 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Depending on the timing of deliveries, F600 monthly sales swing between 600 and 1,000.

With regards to F650/F750 and why there's no 10R trans?

Very simply, Ford stuck the 7.3 where the 6.8 V10 was and called it job done,

 

Sales volume on Super Duty and Medium are not that high.  Splitting that volume between the 6R and 10R just does not make sense !

 

20 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The dilemma for Ford is that the very things needed to grow sales actually torpedoes all the savings 

made by taking F650/F750 in house.

Please explain.  Are you saying the Medium Duty need larger engines ?

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1 hour ago, theoldwizard1 said:

 

Sales volume on Super Duty and Medium are not that high.  Splitting that volume between the 6R and 10R just does not make sense !

 

Please explain.  Are you saying the Medium Duty need larger engines ?

Not sure what JPD had in mind but I would  think  the option of an Allison and/or an alternative diesel to the 6.7 PS. are in my mind what is losing sales for Ford. And I do believe  you and others feel the only reason 650/750 exist is because of the economies offered by the in house power train.

 

I believe plenty of Ford focused fleets would pay a premium for an Allison as well as an alternative diesel-primarily a Cummins 6.7 but even a 6 cylinder Ford  Duratorque.  Likewise these increased sales would serve to further lower manufacturing costs based on better plant utilization.

 

Virtually all medium trucks today offer the 6.7 Cummins and an Allison.

 

One other low cost mod to generate more sales would be to provide a raised roof option to provide more headroom and a higher seating position...shades of 1966 when they did that with the original Super Duty

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I'm saying that Ford spent the absolute minimum on F650/F750 to replace the 6.8 V10 with the 7.3,

it looks like everything else including the gearbox was kept the same ( least number of changes needed).

 

It seems like Ford is comfortable with selling 1,500 - 2,000 F650/F750s a month provided that costs are controlled 

and adding things that would increase sales (Cummins engine, Allison trans, Spicer axles) erodes profit per vehicle,

the metric they used under Hackett to gauge profitability with least revenue/ builds.

 

So yeah, Ford is avoiding the cost and complication of adding outside equipment  to the MDs, only to see revenues 

increase but the % return decrease...

Edited by jpd80
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I think the 6.7L Powerstroke will continue to be the only engine available in the 650/750.  Ford has to spend the money to keep the Powerstroke emissions compliant because of it's use in the 250-600.  Forget the Duratorque, if Navistar, Hino, Isuzu, and DTNA don't want to spend the money to certify their proprietary diesels even with their considerable sales volume, how could Ford justify that expense with their relatively small volume?  Offering a Cummins option would make a lot more sense, but is the B6.7 really any better than the 6.7L Powerstroke?   

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38 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

 but is the B6.7 really any better than the 6.7L Powerstroke?   

I would say no, based on my experience.  We have 2- f750 6.7 cummins. 1 manual, 1 allison. I borrowed local friends/company 2019 f750 powerstroke -torqueshift dumptruck to haul 9 loads of stone for my driveway. I would take that combo hands down. Its much quieter, smoother, powerful.  Plus both the cummins in our company have egr issues, dpf failures. 

 

Just my opinion.

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4 hours ago, MGolden said:

I would say no, based on my experience.  We have 2- f750 6.7 cummins. 1 manual, 1 allison. I borrowed local friends/company 2019 f750 powerstroke -torqueshift dumptruck to haul 9 loads of stone for my driveway. I would take that combo hands down. Its much quieter, smoother, powerful.  Plus both the cummins in our company have egr issues, dpf failures. 

 

Just my opinion.

 

So catching up on the threads and some random thoughts of mine:

 

1)  I think not having the Allison is a far greater issue than the engine.  Body builder preference and customer perception is why the Allison is so important.  I actually think the Ford tranny is pretty good based on what I've heard.  As far as Cummins, they are not as good as many people think, and their warranty "repair" strategies are darn near fraudulent.  They will band-aid something knowing it'll break again later, often times out of warranty, instead of fixing it right the first time.  Seeing how Detroit and Cummins both operate is like night and day, and that's one of the reasons why 90% of the Freightliner customers choose Detroit even though they can choose either engine.

 

2)  That being said, even if Ford did have an Allison and Cummins again, which they have done before, the dealer network and lack of service and parts availability is a major issue.  We gain Ford customers all the time because they are sick of waiting behind the minivan in line at the Ford place, where if they have a problem with a Freightliner they can roll-in and have an express assessment done within a couple hours.  (And if it's a job that takes 4 hours or less to repair, we generally fix it on the spot and the customer is back on the road in the same day.)  The after-sale experience between Ford dealers and other "real" truck dealers is night and day.

 

3)  Lastly, that cab is still a big problem, too, as I've said before.  I have experience of selling Ford's side-by-side with M2's for about a year, and 95% of the time once someone sat in and drove both trucks it was game over for the Ford within seconds.  (Even with a $5K lower price tag, and the Allison/Cummins combo.)  

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On 3/15/2021 at 2:37 PM, 40 Mile said:

Correct. Good points.

 

Also, in my opinion , regarding the rural areas anywhere,  I would also add - high cost electricity,  remote,  and temperature extremes.

 

Doesn’t necessarily have to be only rural areas, but the larger distances traveled will put an emphasis on range.  
 

Many variables in the electric cost...resellers, utilities that invested large sums in nuclear plants that were never built, etc.

There are rural areas on the east and west coasts with mild climates.  Similarly there are metropolitan areas with extreme temps. Minneapolis comes to mind.

 

adaptation rates of bev won’t be uniform.  We'll see if government regulations are flexible in this regard and manufacturers keep producing ice for areas where bev won’t be a good economic alternative.

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4 hours ago, hwyman3 said:

 

Got a hunch Ford is nervous about GM reopening Oshawa and building trucks there.  That gives GM 3 large U.S. truck plants, Flint, Fort Wayne, and Oshawa.  They also have a big one in Mexico and their medium duty trucks are built by partners Navistar and Isuzu. Possible they could outproduce Ford now.  Maybe Ford needs to keep Avon Lake building trucks?

Edited by 7Mary3
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From Market Watch...Plant manager Jason Moore sent a letter to workers saying conditions surrounding the promised expansion have changed. Ford is investing in the Avon Lake plant and will be increasing production of Super Duty trucks there, Moore said.

Pretty much a restatement from other articles.  Does that mean just shifting more 450/550 chassis cabs from KTP?  I'm assuming they still do build those at KTP.?  Or does it mean an expansion of 750 (baby 8 tandem?)

Mr Moore has a tough tap dancing act- agreeing in negotiations to a 900 mil expansion to a .."we are going to  build more Super Dutys"

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22 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Not sure what JPD had in mind but I would  think  the option of an Allison and/or an alternative diesel to the 6.7 PS. are in my mind what is losing sales for Ford. And I do believe  you and others feel the only reason 650/750 exist is because of the economies offered by the in house power train.

 

I believe plenty of Ford focused fleets would pay a premium for an Allison as well as an alternative diesel-primarily a Cummins 6.7 but even a 6 cylinder Ford  Duratorque.  Likewise these increased sales would serve to further lower manufacturing costs based on better plant utilization.

 

With big fleets (hundreds of trucks, not dozens), money talks !  The accountants must be sleeping or Ford is overcharging for their Medium Duty trucks.

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19 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I'm saying that Ford spent the absolute minimum on F650/F750 to replace the 6.8 V10 with the 7.3,

it looks like everything else including the gearbox was kept the same ( least number of changes needed).

Swapping a 10R in place of a 6R is practically a zero engineering cost solution !  With a new engine, the PCM will likely be different, even if it is new software and calibration.

 

I'm sure the 10R costs more to manufacture.  Maybe in MD applications 10 gears don't help fuel economy ?  (I read one thing on the web were he owner of a T250 complained it would never get above 8th gear on the highway when fully loaded.)  

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1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said:

What was that about gas engine 650's and 750's still not available with air brakes?

The are not and were scheduled for 2022 and it was announced last week at then Work Truck Show, that they are now pushed back  to 2023.

Can't imagine what the logic is behind that.

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13 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Swapping a 10R in place of a 6R is practically a zero engineering cost solution !  With a new engine, the PCM will likely be different, even if it is new software and calibration.

 

I'm sure the 10R costs more to manufacture.  Maybe in MD applications 10 gears don't help fuel economy ?  (I read one thing on the web were he owner of a T250 complained it would never get above 8th gear on the highway when fully loaded.)  

The 6.7 Powerstroke still has 6-speed trans in the MD, so it's not just a gasoline engine thing.

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3 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

The are not and were scheduled for 2022 and it was announced last week at then Work Truck Show, that they are now pushed back  to 2023.

Can't imagine what the logic is behind that.

 

Sounds like 'don't hold your breath'!  Did Ford say anything about updates to the 650 and 750 at the Work Truck Show?

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6 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

Sounds like 'don't hold your breath'!  Did Ford say anything about updates to the 650 and 750 at the Work Truck Show?

I think that the pace of electrification in other vehicle segments is probably taking a lot of Ford's attention 

but part of me knows that the F trucks and vans haven been forgotten, I think that after BEV F150 launches,

it will be time to change Super Duty, the Transits and maybe E Series as well. I just see heavier truck chassis 

morphing to BEV much easier than light vehicles.....

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