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7 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

As well as huge numbers going to Amazon?-of Rams that is.  I know others have posted they have seen Transits in Prime colors but at least around here the fleet appears to be 100% Dodge/Fiat/ Ram/Stellantis-pick a name?

 

Here it's a mix of Sprinters and Transits

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4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Here it's a mix of Sprinters and Transits

I see lots of Amazon Transits, Sprinters, and Promasters (or whatever Fiasco calls them). I wouldn't doubt that the mix is different in different regions, though.

 

I do find it interesting that even while Amazon was bringing in rentals of all makes, even Chebbie van box trucks, I've never seen a Nissan van in Amazon livery or being driven by an Amazon driver. On a related note, our datacenter is in an office complex with an office of one of the big rental companies (Budget, maybe?), and they had a long row of shiny new high-roof Transits parked in the lot the other day, presumably being staged to go out to the rental offices (or maybe to the Amazon depot...).

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17 minutes ago, SoonerLS said:

I see lots of Amazon Transits, Sprinters, and Promasters (or whatever Fiasco calls them). I wouldn't doubt that the mix is different in different regions, though.

 

I do find it interesting that even while Amazon was bringing in rentals of all makes, even Chebbie van box trucks, I've never seen a Nissan van in Amazon livery or being driven by an Amazon driver. On a related note, our datacenter is in an office complex with an office of one of the big rental companies (Budget, maybe?), and they had a long row of shiny new high-roof Transits parked in the lot the other day, presumably being staged to go out to the rental offices (or maybe to the Amazon depot...).

 

Well, that's probably partially because Nissan stopped making that van.

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12 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

This was even before they discontinued it. They were bringing in rentals with Texas plates, but no Nissans.

 

I'm sure GM and Nissan submitted fleet bids but I suspect neither made the cut because their vans have abysmal CO2 footprint with V8 engine.

 

Amazon is buying vans from all three viable suppliers in the US because no single OEM can meet the volume demanded by Amazon. This is also part of the reason why Amazon invested in Rivian. They want to see more competitors in the van business. 

 

Think about what FedEx did 20 years ago... they were unhappy with the Ford-GM duopoly so they went to Daimler and said please import Sprinter to the US... we want a fuel efficient (diesel) high roof van that we operate in the rest of the world in the US but no OEM wants to make one. FedEx guaranteed it will buy enough vans for Daimler to take the plunge to Federalize the van. And that totally changed the dynamics of the van market in the US. Amazon is doing the same now... their refusal to buy Nissan vans is probably the main reason Nissan decided to throw in the towel. 

Edited by bzcat
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Bright Drop is going to own this market in a few years with their comprehensive approach to 'last mile' that goes beyond the delivery vehicle itself.  The fact that their vans will be class leading won't hurt either, along with production capacity and a strong dealer network.  Rivian may eventually get a good piece of the market, maybe Bollinger too now that they have given up on their pickup and SUV to concentrate on 'last mile'.  Production capacity will be a challenge for them however.  Good for them Amazon is investing, but if Rivian can't meet their demand Amazon will go elsewhere.  There is also Workhorse, but they may not recover from loosing the USPS contract.  Note to Ford- converted ICE vans will not cut it here.

 

I predict there will be 1000's of cheap used Transits and Promasters on the market in a few years as Amazon and FedEx start dumping their ICE vans.    

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14 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

Bright Drop is going to own this market in a few years with their comprehensive approach to 'last mile' that goes beyond the delivery vehicle itself.  The fact that their vans will be class leading won't hurt either, along with production capacity and a strong dealer network.  Rivian may eventually get a good piece of the market, maybe Bollinger too now that they have given up on their pickup and SUV to concentrate on 'last mile'.  Production capacity will be a challenge for them however.  Good for them Amazon is investing, but if Rivian can't meet their demand Amazon will go elsewhere.  There is also Workhorse, but they may not recover from loosing the USPS contract.  Note to Ford- converted ICE vans will not cut it here.

 

I predict there will be 1000's of cheap used Transits and Promasters on the market in a few years as Amazon and FedEx start dumping their ICE vans.    


i don’t see e-Transit as their end solution, though.  It’s clearly a stopgap in the same way - even more so - than the Lightning is.

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17 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

i don’t see e-Transit as their end solution, though.  It’s clearly a stopgap in the same way - even more so - than the Lightning is.

 

Ford leads the commercial market but is still in the early stages of BEV vehicle development and production. To Amazon's credit, they're leveraging their size and fleet vehicle needs across OEM's to satisfy their initial needs until the market and BEV vehicle availability matures further. Ford's problem, at least short-term, is production capacity. 

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11 hours ago, rmc523 said:


i don’t see e-Transit as their end solution, though.  It’s clearly a stopgap in the same way - even more so - than the Lightning is.

GM has spent more developing BrightDrop van than Ford has developing E Transit but the payback on the latter will be much faster. I’m not convinced that E Transit with a better battery (2025?) will lose anything to BrightDrop which let’s face it is GM trying to curry favour with fleet buyers that recently weren’t good enough…….

Edited by jpd80
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eTransit is definitely stopgap. 

 

I imagine the next gen EV-only replacement will utilize GE2 but that's likely a few more years away.

 

Brightdrop van is class 3-6 so it's a different market segment than Transit which is class 1B-3. But it does illustrate Ford has a potential problem on its hand... it can only milk E-series for probably another 4 or 5  years before more large fleet accounts stop buying ICE (small fleets will probably continue for a while but volume is going to crash). GM is the first OEM to jump in with clean sheet EV design and we know Daimler, Isuzu, and Toyota are all working on this size EV. We haven't heard from Ford at all on what will replace E-series, and the upper end of F-series Super Duty. 

Edited by bzcat
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5 hours ago, bzcat said:

eTransit is definitely stopgap. 

 

I imagine the next gen EV-only replacement will utilize GE2 but that's likely a few more years away.

 

Brightdrop van is class 3-6 so it's a different market segment than Transit which is class 1B-3. But it does illustrate Ford has a potential problem on its hand... it can only milk E-series for probably another 4 or 5  years before more large fleet accounts stop buying ICE (small fleets will probably continue for a while but volume is going to crash). GM is the first OEM to jump in with clean sheet EV design and we know Daimler, Isuzu, and Toyota are all working on this size EV. We haven't heard from Ford at all on what will replace E-series, and the upper end of F-series Super Duty. 

How about this, GE2 for Transit Custom and a mofified version of TE1 for full sized Transit/ E Series replacement.

Edited by jpd80
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19 hours ago, jpd80 said:

How about this, GE2 for Transit Custom and a mofified version of TE1 for full sized Transit/ E Series replacement.

 

I think Ford wants to retain the commonality between Transit Custom and Transit because they are both manufactured in the same facility and same production line in Turkey. 

 

So either they both use GE2 or Ford develops another van-only EV platform. Remember, VW Transporter and Crafter are joining the program down the road so there maybe enough volume to justify an unique EV van platform.

 

TE1 is definitely going to be overkill for the low weight rating FWD Transit (not Custom) which is common in Europe. But TE1 could be used for E-series replacement to compete with Brightdrop and the upcoming Daimler (Freightliner) medium duty EV - if Ford really wants to retain that business. So far, they haven't shown much interests. 

 

 

Edited by bzcat
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Keep in mind that TE1 is intended for use in F150 so may not be as heavy duty as you think. It is a tricky situation and I suspect that’s why Ford hasn’t done much with E Series over the past decade apart for powertrain upgrades. When change comes, I hope it covers all larger vans, both Transits and E Series.

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Keep in mind that TE1 is intended for use in F150 so may not be as heavy duty as you think. It is a tricky situation and I suspect that’s why Ford hasn’t done much with E Series over the past decade apart for powertrain upgrades. When change comes, I hope it covers all larger vans, both Transits and E Series.

 

Long term, they'll have to come up with some sort of replacements eventually.  I suppose they could maintain the E-Series as is until that segment switches completely.

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9 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Keep in mind that TE1 is intended for use in F150 so may not be as heavy duty as you think. It is a tricky situation and I suspect that’s why Ford hasn’t done much with E Series over the past decade apart for powertrain upgrades. When change comes, I hope it covers all larger vans, both Transits and E Series.

 

TE1 will surely be more powerful and with more range than the current Lightning. That's way more capability than most fleet owners will need or want in a van that does less than 100 km a day on average. No Transit 150 owners in Europe (or US for that matter) will need it to tow 10,000 lbs. but that's the expected rating for F150 class pickup trucks. So while they have similar GVWR, there is a big difference in truck and van use case and you end up adding way too much costs into the van if you use a pickup truck chassis. 

Edited by bzcat
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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

TE1 will surely be more powerful and with more range than the current Lightning. That's way more capability than most fleet owners will need or want in a van that does less than 100 km a day on average. No Transit 150 owners in Europe (or US for that matter) will need it to tow 10,000 lbs. but that's the expected rating for F150 class pickup trucks. So while they have similar GVWR, there is a big difference in truck and van use case and you end up adding way too much costs into the van if you use a pickup truck chassis. 

It’s clear that the hauling requirements of the Transits supersedes the need for towing where F150 favours towing over hauling. F150 GVWR is based on class 2A to 8,500 lbs while the full sized Transits are rated as 10,800 lbs to 13,000. Transit Custom, I agree with you has to be a lighter van with current GVWR between 5,700 lbs and 7,500 lbs. What ever platform choices Ford makes, it’s clear that the designs will have to take customer needs into account as well as weight of batteries…something they never had to consider before.

 

Edited by jpd80
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8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

It’s clear that the hauling requirements of the Transits supersedes the need for towing where F150 favours towing over hauling. F150 GVWR is based on class 2A to 8,500 lbs while the full sized Transits are rated as 10,800 lbs to 13,000. Transit Custom, I agree with you has to be a lighter van with current GVWR between 5,700 lbs and 7,500 lbs. What ever platform choices Ford makes, it’s clear that the designs will have to take customer needs into account as well as weight of batteries…something they never had to consider before.

 

That seems to  be a forgotten piece of the equation.  As well  as ...cost to taxpayer for all the subsidies, disposal cost of batteries at life end, ability of grid to handle the increased load, impact of mining material needed to produce the batteries, lost vehicle availability during charging cycle  etc etc.  

If only this could be done at a measured rate instead of the headlong rush to get it done to satisfy the "greens".

 

In the short term?  I would think an ICE running a generator to power traction motors as the railroad industry and R. G. Letourneau discovered many years ago would be a good interim solution.

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6 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 

In the short term?  I would think an ICE running a generator to power traction motors as the railroad industry and R. G. Letourneau discovered many years ago would be a good interim solution.

Take that one small step further…

I could see gasoline/diesel electric hybrid with a small battery for energy conservation (fuel economy) being beneficial to businesses with fleets that have a lot of speed variability. The electric side with instant torque is perfect for getting heavy vehicles moving and electric brakes would save a ton of wear and down time for replacement of friction brakes. Battery power assist to help climb over hills would also help save fuel.

Sure, on long flat roads it comes back to the efficiency of the ICE but with a hybrid, that might mean a smaller diesel is possible when travelling at highway speed….

Edited by jpd80
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Alright, so I was able to get some figures from various sources, and now have some charts for Ford's F-600/650/750 sales.

 

Here are December numbers (and YTD) for 2020/2021, and Q4 (and YTD) for 2019, 2020, and 2021 (wasn't able to get monthly data for '19).

 

image.thumb.png.cbce77dd6201abd9c767702667a9f0cc.png

 

Additionally, here are month over month and quarter comparisons for the same:

 

EDIT:  To note - I used bar graphs for these - if anyone would rather see a line graph like the post below this one, let me know and I can change it.

 

F-600 numbers:

image.thumb.png.3bcf446d746a464a1c8c26e26a7e4b11.png

 

 

F-650:

 

image.thumb.png.8c749a319cd927f13882b731aa60cb6e.png

 

 

F-750:

 

image.thumb.png.ef4336e4c11295cdfe3a13b787898140.png

Edited by rmc523
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