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Well I didn't know Rivian had actually produced any vehicles but i guess they have; I've seen one on I-91 a couple times.  Meanwhile Blue Bird and other bus makers are having trouble with parts chains for Type A buses.  Blue Bird is creating a program to convert gas and propane buses to electric!  There goes the Ford/Roush alliance. When mining operators hold up lithium and other electric components needed, these school bus operators will have their thumbs up there you know where!  Does government and big biz know something we don't know?  Are fossil fuel supplies coming to an end?  Let us know so we can all move to Florida before I run out of fuel oil!  I'd like to see the electric bill for charging 25, 50, 100-plus school buses every night!  Wait until the taxpayers get their tax bills!

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6 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

I'd like to see the electric bill for charging 25, 50, 100-plus school buses every night!

If you think that is shocking just wait until you see how much local schools spend on gasoline and diesel to power those school busses.

 

A gallon of gasoline equals 33.7 kW-hrs, according to the EPA's conversion factor. A gallon of diesel becomes about 37.1 kW-hrs. So say the industrial electricity rate is $0.12/kwh you get electricity that equals $4.04 / gallon gasoline or $4.45 / gallon diesel, but EV powertrains are about 90% efficient vs 30% for gas or diesel so your net electrical cost is 1/3 that of gas or diesel. 

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7 hours ago, Flying68 said:

If you think that is shocking just wait until you see how much local schools spend on gasoline and diesel to power those school busses.

 

A gallon of gasoline equals 33.7 kW-hrs, according to the EPA's conversion factor. A gallon of diesel becomes about 37.1 kW-hrs. So say the industrial electricity rate is $0.12/kwh you get electricity that equals $4.04 / gallon gasoline or $4.45 / gallon diesel, but EV powertrains are about 90% efficient vs 30% for gas or diesel so your net electrical cost is 1/3 that of gas or diesel. 

Interesting info, but will the electric grid be able to handle it?

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3 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Well here in New England, the big question mark is what is the choice this winter?? Nat gas for heat? or electrical generation?  Seems every time we talk about the wonders of EV's, no one talks about where the electricity is coming from.


This has been covered ad nasum here. We aren’t going to have this sudden cut over and the power generation companies are improving generation of

power and will hopefully not be completely caught with their pants down in 10-15 years when this actually starts happening. 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:


This has been covered ad nasum here. We aren’t going to have this sudden cut over and the power generation companies are improving generation of

power and will hopefully not be completely caught with their pants down in 10-15 years when this actually starts happening. 

I do believe Joe's comment and response from Flying 68 refer to the near term.  I would be  very comfortable if the entire electrification issue was being addressed in such a measured pace with 10-15  years a consideration.  

 

But IMO, that is NOT what is happening.  The agenda is being driven by the progressives.

 

By the way, please elaborate on just how the power generation industry currently is increasing generation-other than solar and wind?????

 

I'm all for it-just not the way we are going about it now..and as I see it I am paying for it.

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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:

I do believe Joe's comment and response from Flying 68 refer to the near term.  I would be  very comfortable if the entire electrification issue was being addressed in such a measured pace with 10-15  years a consideration.  

 

But IMO, that is NOT what is happening.  The agenda is being driven by the progressives.

 

By the way, please elaborate on just how the power generation industry currently is increasing generation-other than solar and wind?????

 

I'm all for it-just not the way we are going about it now..and as I see it I am paying for it.

Taking politics out of it, I see Ford’s attempts to ramp up the production and delivery of BEVs as over reaction after years of perceived inaction. I think that Farley looks at Tesla’s rapid expansion and convinced himself that Ford needed to fast track BEVs or risk missing a massive market shift.
 

Reservations and order responses to Lightning and Mach E is encouraging and convincing Farley that rapid ramp up is needed and justified….that may be so but there’s still no way to determine the depth of those sales, will that demand continue after initial high demand is filled, we just don’t know that yet.
 

Sandy Munro described it as once Corporates make up their minds and commit, they tend to start  rushing around like elephants making massive changes and spending lots of money but perhaps missing the fine details of vertical integration required to achieve guaranteed supply of critical parts (batteries). They also start forgetting about the needs of existing customers, in particular the problems afflicting Ford with supply issues restricting supply and sale of vehicles. That needs to be fixed before Ford is able to Roll out Lightning and Mach E in the volume required for the reservations and orders. Shoot, the Maverick now has 86,000 orders and Ford seems unable to respond to that amount of demand….

 

One last point, the Majority of Lightning reservations./orders/buyers (70%) are new conquests to owning an F150, so these orders and sales at present are not taking many sales away from gasoline F150s. Ford is placing a huge bet on near future mass production of BEV F150 from about late 2025 on, that’s now around three years away…….

Edited by jpd80
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For the record I think the decision on Mach-e and Lightning was the right one given the BEV landscape 4-5 years ago.  

 

But you are right about corporations not taking action then once they do decide to move forward it’s balls to the wall to make up for lost time.  It’s been a frustrating experience for all 36 of my corporate years and I doubt it will change any time soon.

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3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Taking politics out of it, I see Ford’s attempts to ramp up the production and delivery of BEVs as over reaction after years of perceived inaction. I think that Farley looks at Tesla’s rapid expansion and convinced himself that Ford needed to fast track BEVs or risk missing a massive market shift.
 

Reservations and order responses to Lightning and Mach E is encouraging and convincing Farley that rapid ramp up is needed and justified….that may be so but there’s still no way to determine the depth of those sales, will that demand continue after initial high demand is filled, we just don’t know that yet.
 

Sandy Munro described it as once Corporates make up their minds and commit, they tend to start  rushing around like elephants making massive changes and spending lots of money but perhaps missing the fine details of vertical integration required to achieve guaranteed supply of critical parts (batteries). They also start forgetting about the needs of existing customers, in particular the problems afflicting Ford with supply issues restricting supply and sale of vehicles. That needs to be fixed before Ford is able to Roll out Lightning and Mach E in the volume required for the reservations and orders. Shoot, the Maverick now has 86,000 orders and Ford seems unable to respond to that amount of demand….

 

One last point, the Majority of Lightning reservations./orders/buyers (70%) are new conquests to owning an F150, so these orders and sales at present are not taking many sales away from gasoline F150s. Ford is placing a huge bet on near future mass production of BEV F150 from about late 2025 on, that’s now around three years away…….

Well said.  I didn't dare mention Farley and his complete commitment, but in my mind he  has been motivated by what he believes  will be the good   press he will get...and it has  worked.!   No doubt all kinds of benefit associated with electrics...but at a measured pace when all factors are addressed starting with the sourcing of raw materials for the batteries and  equally important, the ability to generate the electricity needed as well as an upgraded grid to deliver the juice.

 

By the way, all the Lightning sales?  As JP said- conquest sales.  And my question is how many of these sales are to customers who were replacing a truck.?

My guess is a good percentage are associated with the "cool" factor.

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2 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Well said.  I didn't dare mention Farley and his complete commitment, but in my mind he  has been motivated by what he believes  will be the good   press he will get...and it has  worked.!   No doubt all kinds of benefit associated with electrics...but at a measured pace when all factors are addressed starting with the sourcing of raw materials for the batteries and  equally important, the ability to generate the electricity needed as well as an upgraded grid to deliver the juice.

 

By the way, all the Lightning sales?  As JP said- conquest sales.  And my question is how many of these sales are to customers who were replacing a truck.?

My guess is a good percentage are associated with the "cool" factor.

Thanks Bob, you can bet that a high percentage of actual Lightning buyers see it as more like the coolest full size electric car than a truck per se. Sure some will want it to do occasional towing or actually put more than groceries in the tray and for those duties, it will be fine.

Edited by jpd80
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5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Sandy Munro described it as once Corporates make up their minds and commit, they tend to start  rushing around like elephants making massive changes and spending lots of money but perhaps missing the fine details of vertical integration required to achieve guaranteed supply of critical parts (batteries). They also start forgetting about the needs of existing customers, in particular the problems afflicting Ford with supply issues restricting supply and sale of vehicles. That needs to be fixed before Ford is able to Roll out Lightning and Mach E in the volume required for the reservations and orders. Shoot, the Maverick now has 86,000 orders and Ford seems unable to respond to that amount of demand…

 

But how much was this exasperated by COVID? Even settled product lines have had production issues for over 24 months now. 

 

The other thing is that it seems like everyone is forgetting about is that the Auto Industry is a long lead time for items and can't turn on a time to do new things-it could maybe make a new bumper cover in 6 months, but otherwise your looking at 18-24 months for something to get tooled up or changed on a product. Hell I work for the government and we are trying to field a new PC to replace a now 18 year old one that is being used...they've been working on it for at least 6 years now and it might finally go into production this December!

 

What Ford is trying to do now won't show up for another 36 months or longer. What they are talking about won't see the daylight till 2024-25 or so. That is why they are making a lot of noise about it-make investors happy and show people they are trying to change, when its going to take till 2028 or later to see a huge change in the marketplace. 

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40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But how much was this exasperated by COVID? Even settled product lines have had production issues for over 24 months now. 

 

The other thing is that it seems like everyone is forgetting about is that the Auto Industry is a long lead time for items and can't turn on a time to do new things-it could maybe make a new bumper cover in 6 months, but otherwise your looking at 18-24 months for something to get tooled up or changed on a product. Hell I work for the government and we are trying to field a new PC to replace a now 18 year old one that is being used...they've been working on it for at least 6 years now and it might finally go into production this December!

 

What Ford is trying to do now won't show up for another 36 months or longer. What they are talking about won't see the daylight till 2024-25 or so. That is why they are making a lot of noise about it-make investors happy and show people they are trying to change, when its going to take till 2028 or later to see a huge change in the marketplace. 

I have production numbers from September that show over 200,000 units produced, over 55,000 F150, over 30,000 Super Duty, 19,000 Explorer, 19,000 Escape……..the issue being parts to complete, so the units definitely built and ready to complete.

 

The issue is also suppliers to Ford for Lightning parts have told Ford that they can’t ramp up at the increased pace that Ford wanted…so this is going more slowly than anticipated…. Also over 10,000 Mach E built last month and about similar Bronco.

 

As always the case, things will get better for Ford in two or three years time, it’s what they manage to do now that will be important in setting up for future success. If you remember Ford’s forecast form earlier this year, they were supposed to be out of the chip problem now…..

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On 10/19/2022 at 2:19 AM, Joe771476 said:

Interesting info, but will the electric grid be able to handle it?

 

That is a question we should be asking of crypto currency mining. Not electric car.  This has been asked and answered a million times already. If you are still asking, it's obvious that you don't want to hear the answer. 

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26 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

That is a question we should be asking of crypto currency mining. Not electric car.  This has been asked and answered a million times already. If you are still asking, it's obvious that you don't want to hear the answer. 

 

But the days of using high end video cards for crypto are more  or less over these days also, since ethereum went to proof of stake, until the next one comes along. 

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On 10/20/2022 at 6:05 AM, akirby said:

For the record I think the decision on Mach-e and Lightning was the right one given the BEV landscape 4-5 years ago.  

 

But you are right about corporations not taking action then once they do decide to move forward it’s balls to the wall to make up for lost time.  It’s been a frustrating experience for all 36 of my corporate years and I doubt it will change any time soon.

I am hopeful that Ford now understands why it’s previous electrification and hybrid strategies wee so hamstrung by battery supply, the new vertically integrated battery production is exactly what Ford needs and hopefully Ford Blue hybrids get some love too.

 

I understand that it’s not possible to cure all problems afflicting Ford in short order, it just frustrates me how problems seem to drag on for years, maybe even decades because of misperceptions of supply constraints not understood by senior management….

 

Im sure there will be some interesting data on September truck sales……

Ford managed to build over 1600 F650/F750.

 

 

Edited by jpd80
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On 10/19/2022 at 3:38 PM, jpd80 said:

Taking politics out of it, I see Ford’s attempts to ramp up the production and delivery of BEVs as over reaction after years of perceived inaction. I think that Farley looks at Tesla’s rapid expansion and convinced himself that Ford needed to fast track BEVs or risk missing a massive market shift.
 

Reservations and order responses to Lightning and Mach E is encouraging and convincing Farley that rapid ramp up is needed and justified….that may be so but there’s still no way to determine the depth of those sales, will that demand continue after initial high demand is filled, we just don’t know that yet.
 

Sandy Munro described it as once Corporates make up their minds and commit, they tend to start  rushing around like elephants making massive changes and spending lots of money but perhaps missing the fine details of vertical integration required to achieve guaranteed supply of critical parts (batteries). They also start forgetting about the needs of existing customers, in particular the problems afflicting Ford with supply issues restricting supply and sale of vehicles. That needs to be fixed before Ford is able to Roll out Lightning and Mach E in the volume required for the reservations and orders. Shoot, the Maverick now has 86,000 orders and Ford seems unable to respond to that amount of demand….

 

One last point, the Majority of Lightning reservations./orders/buyers (70%) are new conquests to owning an F150, so these orders and sales at present are not taking many sales away from gasoline F150s. Ford is placing a huge bet on near future mass production of BEV F150 from about late 2025 on, that’s now around three years away…….


its not only Ford though, seems just about the entire industry is jumping head first into BEVs.

 

On 10/20/2022 at 2:47 PM, bzcat said:

 

That is a question we should be asking of crypto currency mining. Not electric car.  This has been asked and answered a million times already. If you are still asking, it's obvious that you don't want to hear the answer. 

 

I still have no understanding of crypto “mining”

 

On 10/20/2022 at 3:43 PM, jpd80 said:

I am hopeful that Ford now understands why it’s previous electrification and hybrid strategies wee so hamstrung by battery supply, the new vertically integrated battery production is exactly what Ford needs and hopefully Ford Blue hybrids get some love too.

 

I understand that it’s not possible to cure all problems afflicting Ford in short order, it just frustrates me how problems seem to drag on for years, maybe even decades because of misperceptions of supply constraints not understood by senior management….

 

Im sure there will be some interesting data on September truck sales……

Ford managed to build over 1600 F650/F750.

 

 


I will never understand how Ford has had battery supply issues for years with the hybrids (they always seemed to be capped/capacity constrained to X units), and never saw fit to increase that much more.

hopefully they’ve finally learned the lesson with the BEV switch.

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

its not only Ford though, seems just about the entire industry is jumping head first into BEVs.

 

That's correct rmc523, the entire industry must do that in order to survive long-term. 100% BEV is the future of passenger cars and light trucks. For medium and heavy-duty trucks, BEV may be supplemented by FCEV in certain applications.

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On 10/23/2022 at 1:20 AM, rmc523 said:


its not only Ford though, seems just about the entire industry is jumping head first into BEVs.

 

 

 


I will never understand how Ford has had battery supply issues for years with the hybrids (they always seemed to be capped/capacity constrained to X units), and never saw fit to increase that much more.

hopefully they’ve finally learned the lesson with the BEV switch.

True, many companies are trying to make the move to volume production of BEVs, many hard lessons being learned….

 

Ford’s constant issues with enough hybrid batteries was always because of outsourcing batteries when supplies were tight and mostly due to Toyota getting supplier priority. Even then, Ford didn’t have the brains to lock up a big long term contract to get decent supply and lower prices. Keep in mind the anti-electric undertow with in Ford, many within dragging their feet because they just couldn’t see the value or need when gas prices were relatively low….

 

Edited by jpd80
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A financial advisor I know casually mentioned that energy crisis in Europe had adversely affected sentiments supporting electrification.  A quick search out of curiosity revealed a chart showing “BEV sales share” are recently down from over 13% to about 11% (not sure of accuracy).  Is this a result of supply chain shortages or due to lower demand?  Apparently, electricity costs have also skyrocketed and  concerns over power shortages and blackouts during winter persist.  The chart showed steady BEV sales increase up through invasion of Ukraine, which suddenly exaggerated electricity grid deficiencies.

 

It will be interesting to see if this BEV sales decline is temporary, and also how European grid(s) handle next 6 months or so.  Either way, there seems much out of auto industry control as should be expected.

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14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

True, many companies are trying to make the move to volume production of BEVs, many hard lessons being learned….

 

Ford’s constant issues with enough hybrid batteries was always because of outsourcing batteries when supplies were tight and mostly due to Toyota getting supplier priority. Even then, Ford didn’t have the brains to lock up a big long term contract to get decent supply and lower prices. Keep in mind the anti-electric undertow with in Ford, many within dragging their feet because they just couldn’t see the value or need when gas prices were relatively low….

Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales August 2022.pdf

If you consider that class 4 and 5 are "medium", looking at those sales stats and throwing out class 8, Ford truly is the commercial "gorilla".

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30 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

If you consider that class 4 and 5 are "medium", looking at those sales stats and throwing out class 8, Ford truly is the commercial "gorilla".

I tried to post this as a separate topic but could not do it...what's up  with "new posts"??

 

in any case...

So in the articles showing up on Ford Authority regarding '23 Super Duty, they continue to refer to "all new cab".
 
Is the SD cab now the same as the 150?  And are 650/750 cabs the same?  Total cab commonality 150-750?
 
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From what I understand, the 2023 Super Duty has an 'all new' cab, though it looks very similar to the 2017-2022 cab.  And yes, it is the same as the F-150.  As far as the 650 and 750 are concerned, as you know they currently use the old circa-1999 steel cab.  The 2024 650 and 750 should be out first quarter 2023, no idea at present if those trucks will adopt the new aluminum cab.

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