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Don't forget, Transit receives upgrades as well next year. 

New Super Duty, new Transit, and all-new Ranger in one year. That is a busy year.

 

Also keep in mind, GM's bigger problem competing with Ford is not with trucks. It is with utility vans. That is really where Ford is takes GM to the woodshed. 

Global utility van sales for both in 2017:

Ford - 717,000+

GM - 112,500

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Well I guess I'm just the resident cynic because as I read some of these posts many of you  think ...."we are right where we wanna be".

I took a look at HDT's posted stats  10 mos 2018 vs same 2017.  In class 3-4-5 the market leader has been  Ram but Ford went up from 35.23% market share to 37.06% with Ram still leading but they dropped from 42.62% to 39.06%.  Based on advertised prices, it appears truck for truck, the Rams are considerably less costly than a similarly equipped Ford.  I should also note that friends who have bought Rams are very satisfied with the trucks in addition to enjoying the cash savings.  Also keep in mind, both Ford and Ram will soon feel the weight of the new GM/Internationals in class 4/5 as these trucks are starting to arrive.  That will NOT be good news for Ford or Ram.  

As for Class 6, Ford had been kicking butt as IMO it was the only one offering a low cost gasoline option in the class but I think that advantage has been satisfied to a degree-and GM supposedly will soon offer a gas option in their new class 6.  In any case, Ford dropped from 30.63% market share to 28.46%. F'liner gained from 31.68% to 32.12%, Hino had a slight gain from 10.50% to 10.61% and International gained from 22.69% to 23.07%

In class 7, Ford continues to drop, from 3.34% to 3.12%  Hino gained from 3.01% to 3.19%. Navistar dropped from 30.19 to 28.06, the gorilla F'liner was virtually flat  from 46.96 to 46.32 and Paccar was the big winner with Pete going from 9.32 to 11.84 and KW going from 7.18 to 7.46%.   When I see the numbers of Petes and Kws in this area, it is very obvious that many small business owners are not afraid to pay the premium.  And as for Hino, there are a couple of dealers in the area that stock very large inventories. If you just observe what you see on the street, I can only assume that as Hino grows their dealer organization they will just contniue to gain market share and their new heavier offerings in class 7 as well as 8 will only help.

For those of you who think Ford is about to spring some surprises, I hope you are right.  Oh and according to a guy on "Pick Up Truck and Suv Talk, he is on You Tube tonight saying that on Jan 14, Ford will announce the replacement for the 6.2 and the 6.8- a 7.3 V-10!  So boys forget about Y Blocks and Faltheads?.  Check it out-he also shows some printed narrative that confirms 6.2 and 6.8 going away to be replaced with a 7.3 but it makes no reference to it being a V-10.

In the meantime-shocker-Clemson vs Alabama!

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Good post Bob and with regards the 6.2 V8 - 6.8 V10 - 7.3 V8 conundrum,

The 6.2 V8 accounts for around 50% of F250 sales but beyond that, the percentage drops off rapidly due to it just not being big enough. I think this has been a continuing problem for Ford since it dropped the 6,8 V10 in F350 and up (I'm short handing here) . The 7.3 V8 looks to be  the big gas engine Super Duty and Medium Duty have needed for years so it will be interesting to see how this pans out.

So if you are FCA or GM and Ford drops a 7.3 V8 and 10R140 across class 3 to 7, you'll think that  Ford has just gazumped us.

 

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12 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

Don't forget, Transit receives upgrades as well next year. 

I'll bite.  What is in the works for the US Transit other that the new diesel that is in the F150 ?

I still can not believe that Ford is ignoring the upscale van market, a-la the old Chateau Club Wagon.  I will never buy a Transit passenger van with those RIDICULOUS second row seats !  My 21 year old E150 is slowing dying from "cancer".

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9 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

...Oh and according to a guy on "Pick Up Truck and Suv Talk, he is on You Tube tonight saying that on Jan 14, Ford will announce the replacement for the 6.2 and the 6.8- a 7.3 V-10!  So boys forget about Y Blocks and Faltheads?.  Check it out-he also shows some printed narrative that confirms 6.2 and 6.8 going away to be replaced with a 7.3 but it makes no reference to it being a V-10.

I would be shocked if Ford does another V10 in my lifetime !

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38 minutes ago, theoldwizard said:

I still can not believe that Ford is ignoring the upscale van market, a-la the old Chateau Club Wagon.  I will never buy a Transit passenger van with those RIDICULOUS second row seats !  My 21 year old E150 is slowing dying from "cancer".

They didn't ignore it...just certified several via QVM to do it instead...

https://www.royalelimo.com/vehicles/Transit-Luxury-Van.aspx

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I wonder if the price difference between Ford and Ram will disappear when Ram starts building their trucks in the US.  I think Ram building their trucks in Mexico gave them a price advantage over the competition which they obviously passed on to the consumer.  I do find it funny that Ford sells nearly as many trucks as Ram does even at a higher price.  Ive said this elsewhere but everybody that I know of that switched to Ram during the 6.0 and 6.4 debacle have switched back and are happy with their purchase.  If the price advantage Ram has is lessened or eliminated, combined with the new 10 speed transmission and 7.3 gasser, I think Ford could be the most competitive of the lot.

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10 hours ago, packardbob said:

I wonder if the price difference between Ford and Ram will disappear when Ram starts building their trucks in the US.  I think Ram building their trucks in Mexico gave them a price advantage over the competition which they obviously passed on to the consumer.  I do find it funny that Ford sells nearly as many trucks as Ram does even at a higher price.  Ive said this elsewhere but everybody that I know of that switched to Ram during the 6.0 and 6.4 debacle have switched back and are happy with their purchase.  If the price advantage Ram has is lessened or eliminated, combined with the new 10 speed transmission and 7.3 gasser, I think Ford could be the most competitive of the lot.

Good question.  Not sure how much Ram's labor cost will change with the return of the HD's from Mexico, but I think at least part of Ram's alleged cost advantage over Ford comes from Ram's cheaper to produce steel cab and bed.  I would be very interested to know what a 6.7L Powerstroke costs Ford to manufacture (in Mexico) vs. what FCA pays for a Cummins 6.7L.  I suspect the V-10 is more expensive to produce than the Hemi (based on parts count) but no idea about the 6.2L vs. the Hemi.   

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Rather than relative cost maybe relative value adding to respective models is a better gauge....

Save for a few 6.2 V8 sales in F350, Ford has practically zero gasoline presence in class 3, 4 and 5 . So the relative value adding by FCA's 6.4 Hemi and GM's new 6.6 V8  is to unleash sales that Ford doesn't currently match - Ford withdrawing the 6.8 V10 to force buyers into the then new 6.7 Powerstroke.

Ford brought the 6.8 V10 back from the dead to pick up some easy gas sales In F650 and F750, I think that move/ response from buyers made them realize just how much gasoline sales traffic they were missing in Super Duty, The 7.3 V8 will probably address a lot of cost and availability issues on the Medium Duty and fingers crossed, Super Duty lines.

 

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Just now, jpd80 said:

Rather than relative cost maybe relative value adding to respective models is a better gauge....

Save for a few 6.2 V8 sales in F350, Ford has practically zero gasoline presence in class 3, 4 and 5 . So the relative value adding by FCA's 6.4 Hemi and GM's new 6.6 V8  is to unleash sales that Ford doesn't currently match...... Ford withdrawing the 6.8 V10 to force buyers into the then new 6.7 Powerstroke...or was it down to poor sales of the 6.8 V10?

Ford brought the 6.8 V10 back from the dead to pick up some easy gas sales In F650 and F750, I think that move/ response from buyers made them realize just how much gasoline sales traffic they were missing in Super Duty, The 7.3 V8 will probably address a lot of cost and availability issues on the Medium Duty and fingers crossed, Super Duty lines.

 

 

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I wouldn't say Ford's sales of gasoline class 3/4/5  trucks is 'practically zero'.  Also remember that the upcoming 7X gasoline engine will be available in at least the 450 and 550.  Isuzu currently sells a lot of gasoline fueled class 4/5 NPR's and will soon have a gasoline class 6 FTR.  Ford needs to be in that growing market. 

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11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford has practically zero gasoline presence in class 3, 4 and 5 . So the relative value adding by FCA's 6.4 Hemi and GM's new 6.6 V8  is to unleash sales that Ford doesn't currently match - Ford withdrawing the 6.8 V10 to force buyers into the then new 6.7 Powerstroke.

Ford only dropped the 6.8L from the pickups (i.e. delivered with a bed). 6.8 is, was and always has been available on class 3, 4, 5 delivered as cab/chassis.  I see many class 4 and 5 utility trucks running around with the V10. The F550 seems to be a favorite for a small bucket lift.

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3 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I wouldn't say Ford's sales of gasoline class 3/4/5  trucks is 'practically zero'.  Also remember that the upcoming 7X gasoline engine will be available in at least the 450 and 550.  Isuzu currently sells a lot of gasoline fueled class 4/5 NPR's and will soon have a gasoline class 6 FTR.  Ford needs to be in that growing market. 

Isuzu truck sales - November 2018

Class..................NOV..........YTD NOV

Class 3 & 4......1,203...........14,625

Class 5...............492............5,254

Class 6................24.............1,089 <----- I Agree a gasoline version could grow this number significantly..

33 minutes ago, Sevensecondsuv said:

Ford only dropped the 6.8L from the pickups (i.e. delivered with a bed). 6.8 is, was and always has been available on class 3, 4, 5 delivered as cab/chassis.  I see many class 4 and 5 utility trucks running around with the V10. The F550 seems to be a favorite for a small bucket lift.

OK guys, I was a little over the top with practically zero comment,  I have no break outs for diesel /gasoline beyond F 250 (50/50) so there may be a significant percentage of gasoline sales coming from the non-pick up side.....as an example,  F Series chassis production YTD Nov was at 16,800 and we'd expect that a fairly high percentage of those to be gasoline powered......oh and I  just remembered E Series MD cut-aways are gasoline and while they are not F Series, there could be some redirection of sales to them.

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On 12/29/2018 at 5:38 PM, ausrutherford said:

Don't forget, Transit receives upgrades as well next year. 

New Super Duty, new Transit, and all-new Ranger in one year. That is a busy year.

 

Also keep in mind, GM's bigger problem competing with Ford is not with trucks. It is with utility vans. That is really where Ford is takes GM to the woodshed. 

Global utility van sales for both in 2017:

Ford - 717,000+

GM - 112,500

I assume that's including all the rebadged vans Opel sold in Europe but not any of the Wuling vans sold in China?

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6 hours ago, twintornados said:

If your going to do that, then you'd also have to include all the rebadged JMC vans in China as well.

Ford and GM both count JMC and Wuling in the global sales so that's why I was asking... The numbers ausrutherford quoted doesn't seem right.

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On 12/31/2018 at 4:00 PM, Sevensecondsuv said:

Ford only dropped the 6.8L from the pickups (i.e. delivered with a bed). 6.8 is, was and always has been available on class 3, 4, 5 delivered as cab/chassis.  I see many class 4 and 5 utility trucks running around with the V10. The F550 seems to be a favorite for a small bucket lift.

Class 3 chassis cabs (meaning F-350) have used the 6.2L gas engine, not the 6.8L, since MY 2011.

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To quote from a post I made on 12/30;

"As for Class 6, Ford had been kicking butt as IMO it was the only one offering a low cost gasoline option in the class but I think that advantage has been satisfied to a degree-and GM supposedly will soon offer a gas option in their new class 6.  In any case, Ford dropped from 30.63% market share to 28.46%. F'liner gained from 31.68% to 32.12%, Hino had a slight gain from 10.50% to 10.61% and International gained from 22.69% to 23.07%

In class 7, Ford continues to drop, from 3.34% to 3.12%  Hino gained from 3.01% to 3.19%. Navistar dropped from 30.19 to 28.06, the gorilla F'liner was virtually flat  from 46.96 to 46.32 and Paccar was the big winner with Pete going from 9.32 to 11.84 and KW going from 7.18 to 7.46%.   When I see the numbers of Petes and Kws in this area, it is very obvious that many small business owners are not afraid to pay the premium.  And as for Hino, there are a couple of dealers in the area that stock very large inventories. If you just observe what you see on the street, I can only assume that as Hino grows their dealer organization they will just contniue to gain market share and their new heavier offerings in class 7 as well as 8 will only help"

Well I made a round trip to Cape Cod In I-495, US 6 last 3 days-about 230 miles.  Did a "survey" based on observations-counted every 650/750 I saw regardless of origin-2000 "Ford", 2004/2014 Bluediamond and anything newer OAP as well as all class 6/7 Hino conventionals.  5 Fords (one OAP, 4 Bluediamonds) and 12 Hinos.  Doesn't stack up at all with those HDT stats right?  Like I said appears where there is a strong Hino dealer presence, they kick butt.  F'liners in class 6/7?  Probably a hundred with a somewhat lesser number of Internationals.

I'm sure the new V-8 will be a big help but as long as they refuse to expand the diesel power train options to include a six cylinder diesel and a transmission in addition to the Torqueshift, my guess is  Ford will continue to lose market share.  Yes  I know,..."but those few sales of Powerstroke/Torqueshift. will be very profitable."

By the way-saw five 650/750s and two LTL's still in service that were last built over 22 years ago-and they weren't going to an antique show!?

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https://media-cf.assets-cdk.com/teams/repository/export/7f0/c40e0d000100580840050568b5709/7f0c40e0d000100580840050568b5709.pdf

Say what you want but that new Chevy medium duty looks good.  Some of this information is a bit dubious (one inch here, 3 inches there BBC, ect.) but the tilt hood, 7 wheelbases, factory rear air suspension, and clean frame rails are big advantages in this market segment.  Gas engine is rumored to becoming later this year.   

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