New Getrag Mild hybrid technology.

[Biker16]

Even with subsidies, electric vehicles are still a small amount of total sales,

the money to develop more of them comes from the good profits extracted from conventional ICE

 

See the dilemma if we cut off the source of funding?

Unlike Tesla the major motor companies have to find money and fund programs themselves.

If Ford and GM sold stock every time they wanted to make a new truck or sports car they's be no better than Tesla.

 

We have a disruptive technology that relies on funding raised form the profits of vehicles its making redundant

 

How is what you said any different from any other technology?

[akirby]

 

The same would be true with subsides Toward driving non electric cars.

 

Non electric cars don't have $7500 government subsidies.

[jpd80]

 

Non electric cars don't have $7500 government subsidies.

Exactly, I doubt that we could find a similar retail scheme in any other industry sector.

You can only encourage buyers so much, the truth is a lot of people expect new tech

like electrification and fuel economy to be part of the car and not an extra payment...

 

Yes there are buyers there for EV, hybrids and PHEV and they deserve encouragement

through subsidies but let's not get ahead of the progressing technology. There's another

big jump due with battery technology in both storage capacity and or weight reduction.

Whe that comes, it will put a lot more vehicles within reach of buyers...

Edited November 14, 2015 by jpd80

[Biker16]

Exactly, I doubt that we could find a similar retail scheme in any other industry sector.

You can only encourage buyers so much, the truth is a lot of people expect new tech

like electrification and fuel economy to be part of the car and not an extra payment...

 

Yes there are buyers there for EV, hybrids and PHEV and they deserve encouragement

through subsidies but let's not get ahead of the progressing technology. There's another

big jump due with battery technology in both storage capacity and or weight reduction.

When that comes, it will put a lot more vehicles within reach of buyers...

 

 

there are others, but few that are given to the consumer most are pass through where the producer receives the credit.

 

 

 

2009 study by the Environmental Law Institute^[27] assessed the size and structure of U.S. energy subsidies in 2002–08. The study estimated that subsidies to fossil fuel-based sources totaled about $72 billion over this period and subsidies to renewable fuel sources totaled $29 billion. The study did not assess subsidies supporting nuclear energy.

The three largest fossil fuel subsidies were:

1. Foreign tax credit ($15.3 billion)
2. Credit for production of non-conventional fuels ($14.1 billion)
3. Oil and Gas exploration and development expensing ($7.1 billion)

The three largest renewable fuel subsidies were:

1. Alcohol Credit for Fuel Excise Tax ($11.6 billion)
2. Renewable Electricity Production Credit ($5.2 billion)
3. Corn-Based Ethanol ($5.0 billion)

 

 

[transitman]

Why not put out the technology in its current state for the market that exists, build a platform that can accomodate current needs as well as the next generation of technology, build a marketing scheme that promotes the technology, its benefits and future and worry about what's going to happen in 10 years, 10 years from now. A company has to invest money to make money.

[Anthony]

In Connecticut there are tons of big rebates and 0% 10 year financing from the state for upgrading your home with green systems (HE HVAC systems, etc...)

 

They also subsidize LED and CEL lightbulb right at the store. Many times they are only a tiny bit more then conventional light bulbs.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Intrepidatious

[jpd80]

Why not put out the technology in its current state for the market that exists, build a platform that can accomodate current needs as well as the next generation of technology, build a marketing scheme that promotes the technology, its benefits and future and worry about what's going to happen in 10 years, 10 years from now. A company has to invest money to make money.

When you ask why doesn't Ford do this now, it's because that decision would have needed

to have been made 3-4 years ago. 2018 keeps being mentioned as a natural break in some

platforms and I have to believe that the next C2 compact platform will be made much more

electric friendly - especially with the mood on diesel changing in Europe.

 

It's good that you talk about investing money to make money, there's also the case of opportunity cost.

So, which existing platforms give up funding, resources and production space to make room for this vehicle?

 

In most instances, electric vehicles on dedicated platforms are loss leaders, if Tesla wasn't selling

stock in front of quarterly announcements, it would have no funding for the next product cycle.

That's where Ford and GM have to be careful about investing money into "black holes" instead

of continuing with conventional ICEs that make good profits, finding balance is what's key here.

Edited November 14, 2015 by jpd80

[mustang_sallad]

Depends on your definition of a lot, sales for October would tend to be at odds with that belief.

 

Total Vehicle Sales.... 1.44 Million

 

Total Hybrid sales 30,489 (2.11%)

 

Total PHEV sales. 4,081 (0.28%)

 

Total BEV sales. 5,740 (0.40%)

 

http://www.hybridcars.com/october-2015-dashboard/

 

 

Sure, a snapshot is one thing, but look at the trends. 5 years ago there were hardly any EVs on the road whatsoever, now they're selling at a global rate of about 40,000 to 50,000 per month, and annual growth has been consistently in the double digits every year (with some fluctuations in specific markets, like US right now with Volt and Leaf both long in the tooth).

 

Meanwhile, look at how much the products are improving. The Volt, Leaf and Focus EV have all had thousands knocked off their MSRP, and at least for the Volt and Leaf, they've seen significant performance improvements from one year to the next (faster charging, longer range, higher mpg, more seats). You can keep hoping for a big step change in battery technology, but the incremental improvements just keep coming and resulting in better products year after year.

 

But that's kind of beside my main point - that people will be willing to pay more for an EV than a standard vehicle based on the fact that fueling them is cheaper and more convenient (if you have a driveway). Maybe not 10k more, and maybe for now, subsidies help soften the blow and make for a good case in terms of total cost of ownership. But with enough variety of models, enough supply in dealerships, and enough education of dealers and the public, sales have a lot of room to grow.

 

I'm not sure if it was in this thread that i mentioned that a local Ford dealer told me I should just get a C-Max Hybrid instead of the Energi because it drives "exactly the same as the Hybrid only with more trunk room", and who didn't even mention that I could get $5000 off of the price he gave me. I know my experience isn't unique. How can you expect these things to be moving with a sales force like that?

[fordmantpw]

Why not put out the technology in its current state for the market that exists, build a platform that can accomodate current needs as well as the next generation of technology, build a marketing scheme that promotes the technology, its benefits and future and worry about what's going to happen in 10 years, 10 years from now. A company has to invest money to make money.

 

Yeah, but is it better to invest $2B to make $5B, or invest $5B to make $2B. If you don't invest your money wisely, you won't be around to see what happens in 10 years.

[jpd80]

 

 

Sure, a snapshot is one thing, but look at the trends. 5 years ago there were hardly any EVs on the road whatsoever, now they're selling at a global rate of about 40,000 to 50,000 per month, and annual growth has been consistently in the double digits every year (with some fluctuations in specific markets, like US right now with Volt and Leaf both long in the tooth).

 

Meanwhile, look at how much the products are improving. The Volt, Leaf and Focus EV have all had thousands knocked off their MSRP, and at least for the Volt and Leaf, they've seen significant performance improvements from one year to the next (faster charging, longer range, higher mpg, more seats). You can keep hoping for a big step change in battery technology, but the incremental improvements just keep coming and resulting in better products year after year.

 

But that's kind of beside my main point - that people will be willing to pay more for an EV than a standard vehicle based on the fact that fueling them is cheaper and more convenient (if you have a driveway). Maybe not 10k more, and maybe for now, subsidies help soften the blow and make for a good case in terms of total cost of ownership. But with enough variety of models, enough supply in dealerships, and enough education of dealers and the public, sales have a lot of room to grow.

 

I'm not sure if it was in this thread that i mentioned that a local Ford dealer told me I should just get a C-Max Hybrid instead of the Energi because it drives "exactly the same as the Hybrid only with more trunk room", and who didn't even mention that I could get $5000 off of the price he gave me. I know my experience isn't unique. How can you expect these things to be moving with a sales force like that?

The biggest issue with Ford was having to restate fuel economy figures lower,

C-max sales slowed up a lot after that and with the drop in gas prices,

everything has simply slowed down.

 

It sucks that you struck a salesperson who just wanted to push the hybrid and not the energi,

sometimes the problem is people who presume to know what we the buyer actually want/need.

 

All I'm saying is that there's no point introducing something new this far into product cycles,

it's best to wait until the natural break and bundle all changes then. Next Gen platforms should

be more hybrid friendly than the current evolved designs, it will be the first time in ages that all

stakeholders will have a say at the clean sheet kick offs - I bet ther some interesting inclusions

on the next platforrms, especially given the commitments from Ford to continue advanceing

electrification of products, it's something near and dear to Bill Ford's heart.

[akirby]

We don't really know yet if people are willing to pay more for EVs because so many people are buying them because they're cheaper than a non-EV car when you look at a 3 yr lease with a $5K-$10K rebate or tax credit. That's $200/month discount.

 

And there is no way a person who can only afford one car will buy an EV because they wouldn't be able to go on extended trips very easily.

 

What I'm saying is we don't know the real demand or what people are willing to pay due to the huge subsidies. Take those away and let's see what happens. PHEVs with longer range have much more market potential.

 

That said, I think Ford needs to be in the game with both hybrids and EVs because the market will grow as technology advances. But they don't have to rush or divert funds from traditional vehicles.

[sullynd]

And there is no way a person who can only afford one car will buy an EV because they wouldn't be able to go on extended trips very easily.

No way? I personally know three people who are EV only. How? If they need more range they rely on car sharing/rental.

 

Common? No, but clearly there is a way.

[akirby]

True enough, but I don't think there are enough people like that to support an entire market.

 

A 250 mile range with one hour recharging would eliminate range anxiety for most drivers.

[mustang_sallad]

And there is no way a person who can only afford one car will buy an EV because they wouldn't be able to go on extended trips very easily.

 

 

In casual conversation, many people use "EV" to refer to both BEVs and PHEVs. I strongly believe that pHEVs will be a big piece of the puzzle in reaching out to mainstream buyers, as long as we can figure out how to explain PHEVs to average people. Study's have shown that the vast majority of people have no clue what a PHEV is.

 

(Most technical papers will avoid confusion by using PEV to capture both BEVs and PHEVs)

[akirby]

They don't know what PHEV stands for or they don't know how a plug in hybrid works?

Edited November 15, 2015 by akirby

[mustang_sallad]

They don't know what PHEV stands for or they don't know how a plug in hybrid works?

 

Both - my comment about the acronyms was just to clarify that I was talking about PHEVs and BEVs. But my comment about people not knowing anything about PHEVs was a more general statement. One study I reviewed surveyed 1500 people across Canada (and interviewed a bunch in person as well), and found that only 29% of mainstream respondents were able to correctly identify how you would fuel up a PHEV (electricity? gas? both?) and a lot of them also thought you would fuel up a regular Prius with electricity. Meanwhile, this study also found that, once you explain how a PHEV works, about 90% of those who would consider any type of PEV would prefer a PHEV. See here:

 

http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaxsen/Electrifying_Vehicles_(FINAL)_V2.8_(July10).pdf

 

My own personal experience definitely reflects this. The vast majority of non-auto-enthusiasts that I speak to about EVs in general have no clue about the existence of PHEVs. I really wish GM would come up with an add for the Volt that could just concisely explain how it works, they always seem to dance around it for fear of confusing people.

[transitman]

They don't know what PHEV stands for or they don't know how a plug in hybrid works?

If Ford, or any other manufacturer wants to build and promote this technology, a more aggressive marketing campaign, dealer understanding and environmental and efficiency benefits sales pitch is needed. Not everyone wants a 18 mpg full SUV or truck and a lot of people still want to purchase fuel efficient cars, with a PHEV, they generally (Fusion, C-Max, Sonata) don't have to sacrifice size for economy.

 

True enough, but I don't think there are enough people like that to support an entire market.

 

A 250 mile range with one hour recharging would eliminate range anxiety for most drivers.

I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, but EV's won't get the full 250 mile range, climate, terrain, driving style and over all conditions will reduce range. One might get close if they never drive above 50 mph, live where it's always 65-75 degrees, flat terrain, no wind, no rain and have opportunities to regen through braking. It will probably be more like 150-200 miles and many less at 75-80 mph freeway speeds, not good enough for a cross country road trip car, unless you don't mind stopping every two hours to charge for an hour, and that's if the infrastructure is out there for quick recharging or battery exchange. That's why I believe a PHEV is the better choice overall. I would like to see the 1.0L EcoBoost with a 40-50 mile range in an slightly larger and higher, redesigned MPV and mid size sedan.

[transitman]

When you ask why doesn't Ford do this now, it's because that decision would have needed

to have been made 3-4 years ago. 2018 keeps being mentioned as a natural break in some

platforms and I have to believe that the next C2 compact platform will be made much more

electric friendly - especially with the mood on diesel changing in Europe.

That's right, redesigns that come out next have been in development for 3-4 years and will be what they are, most likely around 30 miles of range. The next gen in 2020 or so, will be in the 40 mile range and so on. If manufacturers want to move forward with electrification, they have to get out on the field with the team they have, not the team they’re drafting for the future.

[jpd80]

That's right, redesigns that come out next have been in development for 3-4 years and will be what they are, most likely around 30 miles of range. The next gen in 2020 or so, will be in the 40 mile range and so on. If manufacturers want to move forward with electrification, they have to get out on the field with the team they have, not the team they’re drafting for the future.

So happy we're finally getting on the same page, I hear and respect your POV.

EVs will come into their own in the next decade or so but it's how Ford and others sell that sizzle in the mean time,

simply opening people's eyes to the potential with 1) hybrids on more vehicles, and 2) adding an affordable PHEV option.

Get people aware and enthused with the thought of electric mileage and doing away with the ICE , a run flat emergency.

 

Looking forward to the day when batteries are bigger and ICEs get smaller and smaller, like a NA 1.0 liter I-3.......

[Biker16]

The short and medium term goal is to increase the efficiency of the ICE.

 

that involves:

 

• Increasing voltage of the electrical system, 1st to multiplexed 42VDC system and even higher for HEV and PHEV.
• Converting all accessories to electric. Including Heat pumps, that Can Heat and cool the cabin, Electric Water pumps, maybe oil pumps
• Integrated Starter/generators.

The Getrag DCT based hybrid are perfect for the measured electrification that Ford seems to prefer. the ability to scale up from a 12V 20hp electric assist to 42V 40hp HEV all the way up to a 400v 120hp PHEV, allt he while being compatible with multiple ICEs From the 1.0 up to a 2.7V6.

 

All while operating with the same packaging and assembly envelope.

 

Effective in all Ford transverse models from the Fiesta up to the Explorer.

[akirby]

I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, but EV's won't get the full 250 mile range, climate, terrain, driving style and over all conditions will reduce range. One might get close if they never drive above 50 mph, live where it's always 65-75 degrees, flat terrain, no wind, no rain and have opportunities to regen through braking. It will probably be more like 150-200 miles and many less at 75-80 mph freeway speeds, not good enough for a cross country road trip car, unless you don't mind stopping every two hours to charge for an hour, and that's if the infrastructure is out there for quick recharging or battery exchange. That's why I believe a PHEV is the better choice overall. I would like to see the 1.0L EcoBoost with a 40-50 mile range in an slightly larger and higher, redesigned MPV and mid size sedan.

 

I was thinking of the next gen batteries to get that type of range in adverse conditions and to support the fast recharging. I don't think current tech is viable.

 

I agree that PHEV is the best compromise in the near future. The question is how much EV range to provide? That depends a lot on whether you're trying to create a traditional vehicle like Fusion and C-Max Energi or if you're creating a dedicated EV vehicle with integrated batteries, etc.