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Elon Musk's vision is not for the faint of heart


jpd80

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As for electric cars being superior to gas powered vehicles - let's do a 800 mile cross country drive in 12 hours.

 

 

I'd rather do it for free in 14 hours, throw in a lunch and a dinner while charging using the money I saved not buying gas, and then skip the trip to the gas station once a week for the rest of the year when I'm just going to work and back every day.

 

just sayin'...

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I'd rather do it for free in 14 hours, throw in a lunch and a dinner while charging using the money I saved not buying gas, and then skip the trip to the gas station once a week for the rest of the year when I'm just going to work and back every day.

 

just sayin'...

 

I'm just saying that recharging is still at best inconvenient and at worse a very lengthy process on longer trips.

 

And electricity is not free nor will recharging be free in the near future, especially when they start making up lost tax revenue.

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I'd rather do it for free in 14 hours, throw in a lunch and a dinner while charging using the money I saved not buying gas, and then skip the trip to the gas station once a week for the rest of the year when I'm just going to work and back every day.

 

just sayin'...

 

If I'm driving 800 miles, I don't want to be tied to charging infrastructure along interstates. I want to be able to actually see things.

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Say what you want about Elon's supposed vision or lack there of depending on your views, I'm a fan of Model S. It's hard to not like the Model S, especially after you drive it.

 

And Tesla is the most successful American startup car company in nearly a century. The amount of Govt subsidy that Tesla received in the form of State aid and Energy Department grants or low interest loans are not all that different than those received by established car companies in the last decade or so. Ford got several hundred million dollars in grants and low interest loans to retool MAP for example. All the foreign car companies received hundreds of millions a piece (and some of them several times) to open assembly plants in the South. Tesla has created real jobs in California just like BMW has in South Carolina. And let's not forget the two car companies that actually received billions of subsidy to avert total liquidation. The direct to consumer tax incentives for buying EV is open to all car companies... not just Tesla. It's not Elon's fault that no one else wants to compete with him in the $100k EV market.

 

The Model X is another story... it's ungainly and reflective of Elon's unchecked ego (he basically wasted the entire development calendar trying to figure out the falcon wing doors, which no one really cares about).

 

I think it's too early to say Tesla is a success or failure. We'll have to wait for Model 3. If Elon can deliver Model 3 that is like Model S but for $35k before tax incentives then I'd say the company has some real long term potential. But if Model 3 is another ego stroke like Model X where Elon just can't help himself to step away and leave the job to real car engineers... well... then we can start writing the exit strategy posts.

Edited by bzcat
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The amount of Govt subsidy that Tesla received in the form of State aid and Energy Department grants or low interest loans are not all that different than those received by established car companies in the last decade or so.

 

As a percentage of revenue, employment and overall economic impact?

 

IMO, if JZD had been far enough out of time to start an electric car company ten years ago in Silicon Valley, I think he'd have done a lot better than Musk. And, conversely, if Musk had to operate the late 70s/early 80s environment that JZD was stuck with, I don't think he'd have done nearly as well.

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Part of the reason it's so difficult for Tesla to make any money is their insistence on making parts in house when suppliers could do it much cheaper and likely more efficiently. I didn't realize how much they did in house until I watched this:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/inside-teslas-fremont-electric-car-plant-model-model-133000655.html

 

Musk needs to stop micromanaging every little thing or they will never reach sustained profitability.

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Part of the reason it's so difficult for Tesla to make any money is their insistence on making parts in house when suppliers could do it much cheaper and likely more efficiently. I didn't realize how much they did in house until I watched this:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/inside-teslas-fremont-electric-car-plant-model-model-133000655.html

 

Musk needs to stop micromanaging every little thing or they will never reach sustained profitability.

 

Wow, I didn't realize that either. They make the dash screen in the same plant as they stamp body panels. There's something to be said for doing it all yourself, but you can't specialize in everything.

 

One thing I wish other manufacturers would do is allow tours of the plant your vehicle is being produced at. I would love to see my next truck being assembled as it rolls down the line. I'm sure the logistics of that would be a nightmare, though.

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@fordmantpw GM used to offer plant tours of their Baltimore Assembly plant (which closed in 2005). I did one of the tours around 2000 when they were building the Astro/Safari vans and it was one of the most interesting things I've ever done. The tour started around 7pm and lasted over two hours, with roughly two miles of walking during the tour. We saw most everything the plant did. No photos allowed, of course, but they did give us some UAW-themed swag at the end. I think I still have a UAW truck shaped ruler they gave us. I think the tour was free too - definitely not a customer perk as no one in my immediate family has ever owned a GM product, despite having owned many makes.

 

I would have loved to have a similar tour of the Escape plant!

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@fordmantpw GM used to offer plant tours of their Baltimore Assembly plant (which closed in 2005). I did one of the tours around 2000 when they were building the Astro/Safari vans and it was one of the most interesting things I've ever done. The tour started around 7pm and lasted over two hours, with roughly two miles of walking during the tour. We saw most everything the plant did. No photos allowed, of course, but they did give us some UAW-themed swag at the end. I think I still have a UAW truck shaped ruler they gave us. I think the tour was free too - definitely not a customer perk as no one in my immediate family has ever owned a GM product, despite having owned many makes.

 

I would have loved to have a similar tour of the Escape plant!

 

Ford still offers tours of DTP (not free), though I'm not sure how extensive it is. I hope to go one of these days.

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Ford still offers tours of DTP (not free), though I'm not sure how extensive it is. I hope to go one of these days.

I did it years ago (the Mark LT was still in production). It's not as extensive as I would hope. You never get to actually go onto the plant floor, you just view the final assembly shop from an overhead platform. Some conveyers go over top of that, but that's pretty much it.

 

That said, you ever make it up this way and do it, let me know because I know I could probably answer questions that the volunteers from THF couldn't. I would even do it again if you wanted.

Edited by fuzzymoomoo
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I did it years ago (the Mark LT was still in production). It's not as extensive as I would hope. You never get to actually go onto the plant floor, you just view the final assembly shop from an overhead platform. Some conveyers go over top of that, but that's pretty much it.

 

That said, you ever make it up this way and do it, let me know because I know I could probably answer questions that the volunteers from THF couldn't.

 

Yeah, I didn't think it was very extensive, but it will still be cool to see first-hand. When I was in college, I had a summer engineering internship at a Johnson Controls plant making seat cushions, and since then, I've wanted to get into a REAL production facility and see how cars are made. It's very fascinating to me. I'm sure I will definitely take you up on that offer if/when I make it! :)

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I'm just saying that recharging is still at best inconvenient more convenient than gas cause you charge up at home and wake up with a full tank before heading off to work every morning, and at worse a very lengthy process on longer trips.

 

And electricity is not free nor will recharging be free in the near future, especially when they start making up lost tax revenue.

 

 

Well, for current Tesla drivers, supercharging will be free forever, but even if you have to pay for it, average US electricity price puts a full tank on a Model S at about $9. And again, charging at home is more convenient than going to a gas station once a week and takes less time.

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Well, for current Tesla drivers, supercharging will be free forever, but even if you have to pay for it, average US electricity price puts a full tank on a Model S at about $9. And again, charging at home is more convenient than going to a gas station once a week and takes less time.

 

We were talking about a 800 mile cross country trip.

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And my original response to your 800 mile trip was that the improved everyday convenience and drastically reduced cost of fueling make the half hour breaks every 200 miles worth while.

 

I can make a 135 mile trip from NJ to MD in about 1:45-2 hours..so your telling me I need stop every 3 hours or so to charge up 30 minutes which would add an additional 2 hours to my trip or almost make my trip 1/3 longer time wise if I was going 800 miles one way?

Edited by silvrsvt
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I can make a 135 mile trip from NJ to MD in about 1:45-2 hours..so your telling me I need stop every 3 hours or so to charge up 30 minutes which would add an additional 2 hours to my trip or almost make my trip 1/3 longer time wise if I was going 800 miles one way?

In a 800 mile journey, you'd only stop three times, the fourth is destination.

If that range for fast charge could be extended to 250-300 miles, there would be no problem at all.

The range is still just a little short for long distance driving but its' now much closer than what we had.

Edited by jpd80
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I can make a 135 mile trip from NJ to MD in about 1:45-2 hours..so your telling me I need stop every 3 hours or so to charge up 30 minutes which would add an additional 2 hours to my trip or almost make my trip 1/3 longer time wise if I was going 800 miles one way?

 

 

jpd is right to point out that you'd only need three half-hour recharges on an 800 mile trip, but also, 2/12 is 1/6, not 1/3.

 

That's with charging at a peak of 120kW, and charging actually ramps down from that pretty quickly. Audi has said they will deploy a US-wide network of 150kW charging stations (which should be compatible with anything made by Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler, FCA, etc). If automakers improve at all on Tesla's now 3-year old battery design, they should be able to sustain 150kW farther into the charge, so 30 minutes every 200 miles can probably become more like 20 minutes every 300 miles. Richard brings up a good point about being relegated to specific highway corridors, but if you look at what Tesla has done on their own in less than 3 years, you can only guess where this will be a few years from now, if we're talking about "vision" in this thread. It would just be great if Tesla could work together with everyone else and develop adaptors to make sure these fast charging networks aren't siloed.

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It would just be great if Tesla could work together with everyone else and develop adaptors to make sure these fast charging networks aren't siloed.

 

Tesla seems like a snazzier version of Musk's jack-of-all trades banking website which had only one feature that stuck: PayPal--and that ended up sold to eBay. There are aspects of the Tesla that will probably still be in use or under improvement long after Tesla has ceased being an independent company.

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