silvrsvt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 http://jalopnik.com/how-evs-could-kill-gasoline-cars-starting-in-the-2020s-1761822759?rev=1456694005504&utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_facebook&utm_source=jalopnik_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow I think someone thinks the car industry changes as fast as the semiconductor industry..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I see hybriding in varying degrees as reaching far more vehicle buyers than EVs. Also, different materials like composites that seem too expensive today may become much more important in keeping fuel consumption to a minimum.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 http://jalopnik.com/how-evs-could-kill-gasoline-cars-starting-in-the-2020s-1761822759?rev=1456694005504&utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_facebook&utm_source=jalopnik_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow I think someone thinks the car industry changes as fast as the semiconductor industry..... If the ar industry can't move faster the semi-conductor industry will replace them. Why do you think Ford and GM are are dumping money into Driver-less cars and EVs, because they are Disruptive to the entrenched manufacturers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 (edited) One of those rare times when Jalop is actually mostly right. But of course they were just paraphrasing Bloomberg Business Week's lengthy article that everyone here should read. The 2025 CAFE impact on the car business will start to show in 2020 model year. Edited February 29, 2016 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 If the ar industry can't move faster the semi-conductor industry will replace them. Why do you think Ford and GM are are dumping money into Driver-less cars and EVs, because they are Disruptive to the entrenched manufacturers. By building a $100K car and not even being able to turn a profit? Try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fgts Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 By building a $100K car and not even being able to turn a profit? Try again. Yep, Toyota loss soo much money with the Prius program they shouldn't tried at alll... The fact is Ford themselves is going into this void anybody's opinion here against it also I agree EVs are the future and not going back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I still don't believe EVs will be the majority of cars on the road, at least in the next 10-15 years. They will be the majority of the minority in alternative powertrains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I still don't believe EVs will be the majority of cars on the road, at least in the next 10-15 years. They will be the majority of the minority in alternative powertrains. The biggest problem with any sort of alternative "fuel" is the lack of an infrastructure to support said fuel source. If there are no stations within reasonable distance to people, and a "grid" of stations throughout the country, or if said power source takes too long to refill, that power source just isn't realistic for the majority of drivers. Now, will technology improve that allow batteries that have a longer range, charging times being reduced to be more convenient, and a broader charging network? Yes I'm sure of it, but in the meantime, it's just not feasible for most people. That said, electric power isn't as pie in the sky/limited as other sources like hydrogen or fuel cells have been, so it's become more widespread than those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 (edited) By building a $100K car and not even being able to turn a profit? Try again. Ford's mass produced EV is nowhere near $100k in any market where it is marketed. Edited February 29, 2016 by aneekr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yep, Toyota loss soo much money with the Prius program they shouldn't tried at alll... The fact is Ford themselves is going into this void anybody's opinion here against it also I agree EVs are the future and not going back. See, this is why we get into so many arguments. Where in this thread did anybody say that they're against EVs? Nowhere. We questioned the rate or degree of adoption of things like driverless cars and full EVs but nobody is saying Ford shouldn't be working on these things. Ford wasn't first with hybrids but they were pretty successful (and profitable) with it in mainstream vehicles. We already know they are planning a new EV platform - we just don't have any details yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ford's mass produced EV is nowhere near $100k in any market where it is marketed. That was directed at Tesla not Ford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In the 2020s? I doubt it. Perhaps by the mid-2030s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The biggest problem with any sort of alternative "fuel" is the lack of an infrastructure to support said fuel source. If there are no stations within reasonable distance to people, and a "grid" of stations throughout the country, or if said power source takes too long to refill, that power source just isn't realistic for the majority of drivers. Now, will technology improve that allow batteries that have a longer range, charging times being reduced to be more convenient, and a broader charging network? Yes I'm sure of it, but in the meantime, it's just not feasible for most people. That said, electric power isn't as pie in the sky/limited as other sources like hydrogen or fuel cells have been, so it's become more widespread than those. Right. Until all those issues have been reasonably resolved, EVs will be the majority of the minority. PHEVs might be the better alternative. Best of both worlds IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 By building a $100K car and not even being able to turn a profit? Try again. The challenge is that EVs aren't best produced in factories and tooling designed for ICE cars. ICE vehicle are more complex, and if produced properly EV will be able to be produced faster and at less cost than ICEs. When you don't have billions of dollars in tooling designed to produce Cars in a certain way, you find other ways to do things, which are more expensive but less capital intensive. thus the Innovator's dilemma, do you abandon what you know and are comfortable with to try something completely different. the Focus EV, is a perfect example of this, fuzzy, may be better able to explain how many stations are not needed for the EV. imagine if You can integrate the battery better and Reduce the number of components like GM did with Bolt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 2020 is the new "year 2000"* where know it all's are making all these over the top predictions. i.e. "We will have chips in our brains instead of phones!" Every year that ends in 0 is seen as "a new frontier" and wacky predictions occur. 1980 was supposed to be "super futuristic" and we ended up in a bad recession. How much has changed since 2012? EV's still need a long 25-45 min recharge to go what? 50 miles ? It's not like filling up a tank in 5 mins. Anyone expecting "miracle's" simply because "it's a new decade" is delusional! * Conan O'Brien's old skit "in the year 2000 we will all be in flying cars!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The challenge is that EVs aren't best produced in factories and tooling designed for ICE cars. ICE vehicle are more complex, and if produced properly EV will be able to be produced faster and at less cost than ICEs. When you don't have billions of dollars in tooling designed to produce Cars in a certain way, you find other ways to do things, which are more expensive but less capital intensive. thus the Innovator's dilemma, do you abandon what you know and are comfortable with to try something completely different. the Focus EV, is a perfect example of this, fuzzy, may be better able to explain how many stations are not needed for the EV. imagine if You can integrate the battery better and Reduce the number of components like GM did with Bolt. The only thing EVs really cut out of the assembly process as it relates to ICEs is the engine line. Interior and main chassis parts are done done with the same amount of stations. Full disclosure, It's really hard for me to accurately say what the process is for the Focus BEV built at MAP. I spent 90% of my time there exclusively on Door line and the days I wasn't they didn't build a single BEV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 2020 is the new "year 2000"* where know it all's are making all these over the top predictions. i.e. "We will have chips in our brains instead of phones!" Every year that ends in 0 is seen as "a new frontier" and wacky predictions occur. 1980 was supposed to be "super futuristic" and we ended up in a bad recession. How much has changed since 2012? EV's still need a long 25-45 min recharge to go what? 50 miles ? It's not like filling up a tank in 5 mins. Anyone expecting "miracle's" simply because "it's a new decade" is delusional! * Conan O'Brien's old skit "in the year 2000 we will all be in flying cars!" I'm sorry, I am sure you can get 90 miles on a on a 30 min charge on the GM bolt, and 170 miles in 30 mins on a tesla. There has been some progress over the last 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 When you don't have billions of dollars in tooling designed to produce Cars in a certain way, you find other ways to do things, which are more expensive but less capital intensive. thus the Innovator's dilemma, do you abandon what you know and are comfortable with to try something completely different.. The disruption comes from changes in process like you mentioned for the production line, eliminating steps and doing things better and more quickly....not just the vehicle. The innovator's dilemma is actually opportunity cost. Do you stop building the conventional products that made the profits that made investing in EVs possible or do you keep building those conventional products while continuing to nuture EVs until the market is ready for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The disruption comes from changes in process like you mentioned for the production line, eliminating steps and doing things better and more quickly....not just the vehicle. The innovator's dilemma is actually opportunity cost. Do you stop building the conventional products that made the profits that made investing in EVs possible or do you keep building those conventional products while continuing to nuture EVs until the market is ready for them. it is true it has alot to do with opportunity costs. but figure this out Tesla is he best selling Ev in the US in spite of it's $100,000 price tag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyone else a little turned off by the author's holier than thou, oil is evil and electric is godly tone the author vomited out from the get go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangerM Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 (edited) Without some radical advance in battery technology (or government force), we'll put flammable liquids into IC-powered vehicles for the foreseeable future. Edited March 1, 2016 by RangerM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lfeg Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 To me, the title of that article is a bit misleading. EVs willl not kill the gasoline car. They may reduce it's market reach, but will never kill it. What MAY kill it is government regulations and mandates that result in it being a less than optimal vehicle compared to other alternatives on the market. Que the late '70s, if there were other alternatives that were viable then, ICE automobiles would have taken a big hit, what with poor performance, ugly bumpers, and mostly forgetable sedans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyone else a little turned off by the author's holier than thou, oil is evil and electric is godly tone the author vomited out from the get go? No. Are you referring to the Jalopnik author (Ms. King), the Bloomberg Business article author (Mr. Randall), or the BNEF report author (Mr. Morsy)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Electricity doesn't come from "magic". What powers the plants? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Electricity doesn't come from "magic". What powers the plants? Unicorn farts and pixie dust. Sheesh! Some people. :-) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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