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Jim Hackett's big moment: CEO's vision for Ford will become clearer this week


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For some reason I thought the Chinese Taurus was something else, based off the previous 500/Montego looking platform. So yeah, I say bring over the Chinese Taurus.

Nope, its CD4. It was originally going to be launched at FRAP nearly simultaneously as the Continental before it bombed in focus groups and the plan was scrapped.
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bombed in focus groups and the plan was scrapped.

It bombed in focus groups because it was not an SUV not specially the car. Speaking of focus groups, there have been some about the Bronco and it should make Mustang/Pony car fan very nervous. Some early projections are that it will cut 40% of domestic Mustang volume.

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It bombed in focus groups because it was not an SUV not specially the car. Speaking of focus groups, there have been some about the Bronco and it should make Mustang/Pony car fan very nervous. Some early projections are that it will cut 40% of domestic Mustang volume.

 

What does a Bronco focus group have to do with Mustang volume?

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Just to give an idea where the industry is heading:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-26/california-mulls-following-china-with-combustion-engine-car-ban

 

Now we all know despite whoever is in the White House, California will pull this off and the EPA will be no more than 5 years behind, regardless if it happens in 2030, 2035, or 2040.

 

I personally think the technology will be good enough in 20 years that we will all forget about gasoline and diesel engines.

 

Still not sold on self-driving cars, however.

Self driving cars? Biggest winners will be the legal profession when the court cases start. " Let's see- does my Tesla hit the car crossing into my lane or the four people standing at the bus stop to my right".

 

No doubt, crash avoidance systems are a great start and make sense-but IMO, wouldn't it make sense to approach this at a measured pace? What is the rush? Yeah my high tech friends all tell me they will be safer than some of the idiots on the road. That may be true.

 

Perhaps we should in the short term concentrate on getting the idiots off the road.

 

Think of what the "self driving" expenditures could do for improved technology related to fuel economy, durability and yes safety-the crash avoidance bit.

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It bombed in focus groups because it was not an SUV not specially the car. Speaking of focus groups, there have been some about the Bronco and it should make Mustang/Pony car fan very nervous. Some early projections are that it will cut 40% of domestic Mustang volume.

icon_thumbs1.gif

 

What does a Bronco focus group have to do with Mustang volume?

how do theorem-thingies go again?

given: sheeple are switching from carCars to CuvSuvs

*THE* sporty CuvSuv will be the Bronco

QED

 

Self driving cars? Biggest winners will be the legal profession when the court cases start. " Let's see- does my Tesla hit the car crossing into my lane or the four people standing at the bus stop to my right".

 

No doubt, crash avoidance systems are a great start and make sense-but IMO, wouldn't it make sense to approach this at a measured pace? What is the rush?...

I can't wait til the fatcats with their $100k++ robocars end up getting autono-chauffered at 25mph...

...at least when off the restricted highways

('course the 98% won't be allowed to have cars at all)

Edited by 2b2
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New vehicle shoppers and being cross shopped, Pony cars owners are showing the greatest interest in the Bronco.

 

There might be an impact somewhat in sales, but If anything I see the Bronco supplementing Mustang sales...not replacing them.

 

Personally, my goal is to have two ponies in the driveway- A Bronco for daily driver and a GT350 or the like as the weekend car in the next 10 years or so.

 

Overall the Mustang is mostly a 2 or 3rd tier car for people over the age of 35 or so-if your not single, its not going to work that well. I had to call my girlfriend (now wife) when I went to Lowes to get a microwave for my condo-it wouldn't fit into my Mustang :p

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New vehicle shoppers and being cross shopped, Pony cars owners are showing the greatest interest in the Bronco.

 

I'm with silvrsvt on this one - Sure, Mustang owners may be showing a lot of interest, but I don't see many Mustang buyers outright replacing their Mustangs with a Bronco.....sure some will, but not most. Like he said, they'd get both - one more practical, one more fun.

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I'm with silvrsvt on this one - Sure, Mustang owners may be showing a lot of interest, but I don't see many Mustang buyers outright replacing their Mustangs with a Bronco.....sure some will, but not most. Like he said, they'd get both - one more practical, one more fun.

Remember less that 40% (save for a few models, which the Mustang isn't part of) of people buy the same car again, so you need new customers walking in and wanting that vehicle. The majority of shoppers under 40 today want a SUV, so even if they keep the Mustang they own it becomes the fun car and the Bronco becomes the daily driver. The Mustang will always have a base that will also buy it for the Sports car/Convertible lifestyle, they could expand the base of the car by having AWD to sell more in the midwest and east or making a fully electric one for the young Tech type those could help mitigate those loses. The Pie is only so big, you have to take a customer from somewhere and with the new vehicle market projected to stagnate/slightly shrink as a whole that units sold have to come from some where.

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Remember less that 40% (save for a few models, which the Mustang isn't part of) of people buy the same car again, so you need new customers walking in and wanting that vehicle. The majority of shoppers under 40 today want a SUV, so even if they keep the Mustang they own it becomes the fun car and the Bronco becomes the daily driver. The Mustang will always have a base that will also buy it for the Sports car/Convertible lifestyle, they could expand the base of the car by having AWD to sell more in the midwest and east or making a fully electric one for the young Tech type those could help mitigate those loses. The Pie is only so big, you have to take a customer from somewhere and with the new vehicle market projected to stagnate/slightly shrink as a whole that units sold have to come from some where.

 

I get some of your points. And of course you continue adding to Mustang to make it more compelling (as you mentioned, AWD, electric power, etc., which we all know is coming....the hybrid was already announced, it's only a matter of time before the e-Stang).

 

While yes, there will be some converts going from Mustang to Bronco, even in your shrinking market scenario, wouldn't you think it's more likely that a customer would come from a Wrangler or 4Runner than a Mustang?

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No doubt, crash avoidance systems are a great start and make sense-but IMO, wouldn't it make sense to approach this at a measured pace? What is the rush?

The rush is that everyone is pushing that way, and they're in a hurry to get there--Honda, f'rinstance, has committed to SAE Level 3 autonomy by 2020 and Level 4 autonomy by 2025, and Nissan has committed to having Level 3 cars on the road by the Tokyo Olympics. Nobody can afford to be left behind.

Think of what the "self driving" expenditures could do for improved technology related to fuel economy, durability and yes safety-the crash avoidance bit.

Unless I'm misreading what you're saying, you're acting like developing autonomous driving and those technologies are mutually exclusive when they're really synergistic.

 

Yeah, I'll agree that the Silicon Valley wonks are myopic in their outlook, but it doesn't help to be myopic in the other direction.

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The rush is that everyone is pushing that way, and they're in a hurry to get there--Honda, f'rinstance, has committed to SAE Level 3 autonomy by 2020 and Level 4 autonomy by 2025, and Nissan has committed to having Level 3 cars on the road by the Tokyo Olympics. Nobody can afford to be left behind.

Unless I'm misreading what you're saying, you're acting like developing autonomous driving and those technologies are mutually exclusive when they're really synergistic

 

Here is a definition of SAE levels of self driving....Level's 3 and 4 don't see like hard reach-outside of legal circumstances. I also believe level 3 and 4 will be the most popular since it still allows for human interaction to drive, but the the ability to let the car drive itself when needed.

 

http://newatlas.com/sae-autonomous-levels-definition-self-driving/49947/

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Here is a definition of SAE levels of self driving....Level's 3 and 4 don't see like hard reach-outside of legal circumstances. I also believe level 3 and 4 will be the most popular since it still allows for human interaction to drive, but the the ability to let the car drive itself when needed.

 

http://newatlas.com/sae-autonomous-levels-definition-self-driving/49947/

From the horse's mouth:

https://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf

There's a pretty good chart on the 2nd page of the PDF that shows the different levels.

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Level's 3 and 4 don't see like hard reach-outside of legal circumstances. I also believe level 3 and 4 will be the most popular since it still allows for human interaction to drive, but the the ability to let the car drive itself when needed.

Really, I don't see Level 5 happening outside of certain special cases due to the liability questions (f'rinstance, you could have a fleet of autonomous cargo ships--but even then, you'd likely need a captain on one of the ships to deal with special cases (ignoring any need for crew to keep the things running)). I've always believed that the legal issues are what will hold back autonomous vehicles, more so than any ability to overcome technical/engineering issues.

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I also wonder on level 5, currently you can't even do level 5 on a train that is on a Track that have ROW over any road crossing/person that might be in the way.

 

 

I get some of your points. And of course you continue adding to Mustang to make it more compelling (as you mentioned, AWD, electric power, etc., which we all know is coming....the hybrid was already announced, it's only a matter of time before the e-Stang).

 

While yes, there will be some converts going from Mustang to Bronco, even in your shrinking market scenario, wouldn't you think it's more likely that a customer would come from a Wrangler or 4Runner than a Mustang?

We'll have to see what the Bronco ends up being if it comes from the Wrangler crowd or 4 Runner crowd.

I think an e-stang would be a tremendous boom for the Mustang and Halo for Ford and the Electric cars. There is no reason that with the High Performance Electric motors that you couldn't make an 80K electric Mustang that hit 60 in under 3 seconds. That is a new generation Halo car, would change the perception of Ford its focus on Tech as well as show wall street there are serious about changing.

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If I was the new CEO, I'd reveal a new product (or at least a timetable on upcoming products) at his presentation. Ford has been skimpy on new models since the 2015 model year. Showing off a new product or letting the public know that a host of product is on its way will boost interest and confidence.

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If I was the new CEO, I'd reveal a new product (or at least a timetable on upcoming products) at his presentation. Ford has been skimpy on new models since the 2015 model year. Showing off a new product or letting the public know that a host of product is on its way will boost interest and confidence.

 

At a presentation, I think just a list would be ok. But providing just a list at an autoshow would be a disaster just like it was last year. People want to see product.

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If I was the new CEO, I'd reveal a new product (or at least a timetable on upcoming products) at his presentation. Ford has been skimpy on new models since the 2015 model year. Showing off a new product or letting the public know that a host of product is on its way will boost interest and confidence.

NAIAS isn't that far away, it would be better to put something together that's really going to impress and make a statement rather than throw something together just to have /something/.
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At a presentation, I think just a list would be ok. But providing just a list at an autoshow would be a disaster just like it was last year. People want to see product.

And that's what Ford seems to do when it has nothing to show...

 

"We never talk about future products" gets thrown out the window when it suits them to do so.

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And that's what Ford seems to do when it has nothing to show...

 

"We never talk about future products" gets thrown out the window when it suits them to do so.

 

Right....it was a knee jerk reaction to them not having anything to show......which honestly wasn't the case either.....they had a refreshed F-150 and Mustang, and all-new Expedition to show, yet they chose to have F-150 and Expedition at their own separate events (Expedition's was a disaster), and Mustang was just thrown out there one day randomly after NAIAS. Launching those 3 that way left them with 0 in the way of intro material at NAIAS, so they had to scramble to make a powerpoint with "coming soon!!!!" images on it.

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And that's what Ford seems to do when it has nothing to show...

 

"We never talk about future products" gets thrown out the window when it suits them to do so.

I think at this one Future product will be shown almost to the point where it must be shown, not all of it but some of it for sure. This is more make or break for Wall Street for where the company is going. They will show product for what is going to be shown on the Auto show circuit this year. This goes well Ford Stock goes back up to the $15/$16 range. They don't like it, the stock will be $9/$10. I also wouldn't be surprised if there isn't heavier stock repurchase program announced. Hackett is going to be working to get Wall Street back to believing Ford is more than a F-Series Pony.

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I don't know what Jim's big plan is but here will be my plan - which should be obvious to anyone paying attention to the industry - more CUVs! Look at Honda... best seller is CR-V, and the HR-V outsells Fit by a healthy margin.

 

  • Fullsize car is pointless in the US so no reason to replace the Taurus. Just make the next Fusion a totally kick ass car.
  • Fiesta made sense when gas was $4 a gallon but obviously a marginal business now. But I would find a way to keep the car in the line up in the US. Import it from somewhere.
  • Make sure next gen EcoSport and C-Max replacement (a CUV) are build in North America so you have the capacity to meet demand.
  • Re-assess European niche products... Grand C-Max and S-Max maybe better off being replaced by 7-seat Escape/Kuga and 7-seat Edge, which Ford can sell worldwide.
  • Make more variants of Explorer and Edge. We have Platinum (Vignale) and Sport but there seem to be a lot of untapped potential. i.e. a "Raptor-lite" or FX version with faux-SUV styling (lots of cladding and a bit more ground clearance); a King Ranch Explorer (come on... shooting fish in the barrel here) etc.
Edited by bzcat
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