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Exclusive: the future of Ford, according to its bosses

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12 hours ago, akirby said:

 

As usual you COMPLETELY missed the point.  The point was that Ford is not behind at all when it comes to BEVs.  They know exactly how to make a BEV because of their PHEV experience.  

 

You're missing the point that PHEV and BEV are not the same.

 

Every dollar that Ford spends on dead end hybrid technology including PHEV is a dollar that isn't devoted to BEV development. That's a legitimate risk for Ford in terms of falling behind when it comes to BEV compared to automakers that aren't devoting their resources to hybrids any further.

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47 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Every dollar that Ford spends on dead end hybrid technology including PHEV is a dollar that isn't devoted to BEV development. That's a legitimate risk for Ford in terms of falling behind when it comes to BEV compared to automakers that aren't devoting their resources to hybrids any further.

 

But at the same time those companies that are pushing BEVs before the market is ready are going to lose sales also. 

 

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

You're missing the point that PHEV and BEV are not the same.

 

Every dollar that Ford spends on dead end hybrid technology including PHEV is a dollar that isn't devoted to BEV development. That's a legitimate risk for Ford in terms of falling behind when it comes to BEV compared to automakers that aren't devoting their resources to hybrids any further.

 

Wrong.  Every dollar spent on BEV development is flowing down into PHEV products that can make money today.  How? By developing the packaging of the battery, the control systems, and power requirements.  The two streams are not exclusive.  If you are going to develop future technology you have to be able to flow that into products that can make money now.  When BEVs become profitable at the volumes that consumers are ready to commit to is when this will be apparent.  Tesla is still not operationally profitable selling BEVs.

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Both need better batteries.  You can't get to BEV's without first going through Hybrids/PHEV first.

 

Until they can come up with a way to charge a battery within 10 minutes, BEV's will never work for my uses.  A hybrid I could utilize first.

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

You're missing the point that PHEV and BEV are not the same.

 

Please explain in technical terms how the components and control system of a BEV is different than what you’d find in a PHEV.

 

 

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The only difference in the batteries is the number of cells and therefore the capacity.  Both can use the same type of battery.

 

Both have plug in recharging.

 

Both can run on electric power alone without an ICE.

 

Both recharge the batteries using regenerative braking.

 

Eliminate the ICE and all that comes with it and throw in a larger battery and you have a BEV.  There is nothing special about it that Ford doesn’t already know how to do.

 

 

Edited by akirby

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38 minutes ago, akirby said:

Eliminate the ICE and all that comes with it and throw in a larger battery and you have a BEV.  There is nothing special about it that Ford doesn’t already know how to do.

And know how to do quite well too. 

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23 hours ago, Flying68 said:

Related to Ford as a company, the biggest impact and potentially biggest profit center for BEV's would be to produce a 150 mi to 200 mi range (whatever covers 95% of commercial operators) Transit vans and light duty pickups for the fleet operators.  These are the companies that run local service vans and probably put on 100 miles a day on service calls then park them back at the main office.  Ford could greatly reduce those operators running costs by providing a BEV solution where each vehicle is charged overnight at their main depot.  FedEX, UPS, USPS could all benefit.

UPS already has a fleet of "experimental" delivery vans.  I don't know who built them.

 

Ford should be courting Amazon Delivery !

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On 8/30/2019 at 7:41 AM, Gurgeh said:

 

Please save me from fake engine sound! (...or at least let me turn the annoying noise off.) Hmm, I wonder if the people who first bought automobiles complained about the lack of clopping hoof sounds.

I'm not a fan of fake engine noise (especially the fake engine noises that come out of the sewer pipe exhausts on FWD 4-bangers), but it's an important auditory cue for visually impaired pedestrians--and non-impaired pedestrians, at that. That's why you're starting to see regulations on the subject.

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2 hours ago, theoldwizard said:

UPS already has a fleet of "experimental" delivery vans.  I don't know who built them.

 

Ford should be courting Amazon Delivery !

 

Fedex too. The ones I see in Chicago look cool. They’re a modified European van. Doors (or lack there of) are weird tho.  

 

https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2010/03/30/fedex-adds-4-more-bevs-to-its-already-green-delivery-fleet/

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26 minutes ago, SoonerLS said:

I'm not a fan of fake engine noise (especially the fake engine noises that come out of the sewer pipe exhausts on FWD 4-bangers), but it's an important auditory cue for visually impaired pedestrians--and non-impaired pedestrians, at that. That's why you're starting to see regulations on the subject.

That, I get.

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On 8/30/2019 at 8:32 AM, Flying68 said:

Related to Ford as a company, the biggest impact and potentially biggest profit center for BEV's would be to produce a 150 mi to 200 mi range (whatever covers 95% of commercial operators) Transit vans and light duty pickups for the fleet operators.  These are the companies that run local service vans and probably put on 100 miles a day on service calls then park them back at the main office.  Ford could greatly reduce those operators running costs by providing a BEV solution where each vehicle is charged overnight at their main depot.  FedEX, UPS, USPS could all benefit.  I think F-250's and such are going to remain ICE for a while but there is a use case for a BEV F-250, but I think market acceptance will be limited right now. Getting more mass market penetration will take some time.  Rural parts of the country will still depend on ICE vehicles until the infrastructure improves.  PHEV's are not holding back adoption of BEVs, range, charging time, and infrastructure is.  If I want to make a 500 mile trip in 8 hours, a BEV is out.  If you want to tow on a long vacation, BEV is out.  There are not enough charge points available and the charge time is still too long.  It takes 5 minutes or less to pump 20 gallons of gas and there are gas stations every 50 miles or so in most rural areas, chargers not so many of those though.

I was thinking of these too: https://eagletugs.com/bobtails

87654277-DC6E-4E2D-B8AA-9CCAEEC159CD.jpeg

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FedEx is already in bed with 1,000 FDG Chinese Chanje V8100 vans that have 150-200 mile range.

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On 8/30/2019 at 2:43 PM, akirby said:

 

Please explain in technical terms how the components and control system of a BEV is different than what you’d find in a PHEV.

 

The key difference is of course the inclusion of a secondary motive source, specifically ICE, in PHEV. This has implications that explain why PHEV is very different from BEV.

 

1. ZEV classification (CARB/Section 177 in the U.S.).

  • Only BEV and FCEV qualify as ZEV. Definition of ZEV. "Zero exhaust emissions of any criteria pollutant or greenhouse gas under any and all possible operational modes and conditions".
  • PHEV are classified as TZEV. Definition of TZEV. "SULEV emissions standards, Zero evaporative emissions, specific warranties on emissions components and high voltage battery".
  • Range extended EV (BEVx) is classified as TZEV, with same emissions requirements as PHEV. However, BEVx must also meet the following. "Gasoline range cannot exceed all-electric range; minimum 75 miles all-electric range on Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS)".
  • Currently, automakers can earn up to 4 ZEV credits per vehicle sold with BEV based on all-electric range. With PHEV, the maximum ZEV credits per vehicle sold is 1.3. See attached diagram for requirements.

2. Battery architecture.

  • PHEV high voltage batteries have higher discharge power to energy capacity ratio than BEV batteries. For example, Chevy Volt (PHEV/EREV) has a power to energy ratio of greater than 6 W/Wh. By comparison, Chevy Bolt (BEV) has a power to energy ratio of about to 2 W/Wh.
  • The design of current collectors in the battery and the coatings applied to those collectors determine power to energy ratio.
  • Battery pack volume, weight, cell count and wiring (series/parallel) differ significantly between PHEV and BEV.
  • The larger batteries in BEV and lack of ICE dictate different approaches to battery temperature management and cooling system design than in PHEV.

3. Operating modes and control strategy.

  • PHEV supports both charge sustaining (CS) and charge depleting (CD) modes. BEV uses CD mode only. Definition of CS mode. "An operating mode in which the energy storage state-of-charge (SOC) may fluctuate but, on average, is maintained at a certain level while the vehicle is driven". Definition of CD mode. "An operating mode in which the energy storage SOC may fluctuate but, on average, decreases while the vehicle is driven".
  • Most PHEV use a blended control strategy, allowing ICE to activate before battery is fully depleted and use CS mode. EREV/BEVx (Chevy Volt, BMW i3 REx) support non-blended strategy where engine does not activate before CS mode is used.

4. Bill of materials.

  • The IC engine in a PHEV and associated components result in a much higher BOM count compared to BEV. For example, IC engine cooling, fuel, and emissions control components used in PHEV are not needed in BEV.
  • BEV use direct drive (no transmission), separate drive ratios for front vs rear motors (as Tesla does with Dual Motor models), or transmissions with 2 forward ratios (like the new design from ZF). PHEV use more complex multi-speed automatic transmissions or eCVT.

5. Chassis design tuning.

  • Even weight distribution can be achieved more easily in BEV due to the larger battery pack and lack of IC engine.
  • BEV also facilitates completely flat "skateboard" chassis design not possible with PHEV.

 

 

 

ZEV.png

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All of what you posted shows that building a PHEV is more complicated than building a straight BEV

 

Credits aside, Ford’s experience with hybrids and PHEVs means that the progression to BEVs is much easier as all the body construction and mass production experience comes across.

 

We should not mistake Ford’s lack of a BEV as  any indication of lack of capability. They’re timing their run to happen after Tesla does all the heavy lifting of credibility and charging network and battery development Then like a thief in the night, Ford (and GM) will be there to steal Tesla’s patch.

Edited by jpd80

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8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

We should not mistake Ford’s lack of a BEV as  any indication of lack of capability. They’re timing their run to happen after Tesla does all the heavy lifting of credibility and charging network and battery development Then like a thief in the night, Ford (and GM) will be there to steal Tesla’s patch.

 

I agree with you jpd80 sir. Personally, I'm confident in Ford's capability to become a leader with BEV, which is one pillar of the automotive industry's future. I was simply noting the opportunity costs for Ford and Toyota for pursuing hybrids right now rather than going "all in" with BEV as GM and VW are doing. Toyota also has opportunity costs for investing in FCEV over BEV recently.

 

There's a strong possibility that Ford's BEV F-Series will come out before Tesla Pickup truck. A truly capable BEV full size pickup truck will be a game changer. I think Ford will win in this area thanks to its expertise with pickup trucks combined with its growing BEV development abilities.

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9 hours ago, jpd80 said:

All of what you posted shows that building a PHEV is more complicated than building a straight BEV

 

My point exactly.   It's actually harder to build a PHEV.

 

Ford is not behind in the technology or intellectual property needed to build a BEV, they just waited until it had a chance to be profitable.

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4 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

I agree with you jpd80 sir. Personally, I'm confident in Ford's capability to become a leader with BEV, which is one pillar of the automotive industry's future. I was simply noting the opportunity costs for Ford and Toyota for pursuing hybrids right now rather than going "all in" with BEV as GM and VW are doing. Toyota also has opportunity costs for investing in FCEV over BEV recently.

 

There's a strong possibility that Ford's BEV F-Series will come out before Tesla Pickup truck. A truly capable BEV full size pickup truck will be a game changer. I think Ford will win in this area thanks to its expertise with pickup trucks combined with its growing BEV development abilities.

 

Strong possibility?  I think it's a guarantee.

 

Tesla could do their usual dog and pony show "debuting" it, but I think there's a 0.01% chance it's out before F-150 BEV.

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22 minutes ago, akirby said:

Ford is not behind in the technology or intellectual property needed to build a BEV, they just waited until it had a chance to be profitable.

 

I wonder what the relative costs are for powertrains: ICE, hybrid (ICE/battery), and EV. What is the cost 'penalty' associated with a BEV powertrain - $10,000? 

 

If considered in those terms, it makes perfect sense for Ford not to rush headlong into BEV vehicles, but instead allow the market to dictate timing based on demand, and also allow battery costs to (hopefully) continue to drop. I could give 2 craps what VW are doing in terms of "leading" in BEV's - they have their own agenda (dieselgate, China) which are not shared by Ford. 

 

On another 'strategy' topic, what's happened to all the bluster from GM trumpeting their leadership in autonomy? (I know the answer, it's a rhetorical question). I would caution those who buy into PR BS, be it from GM, VW, or Tesla, to be a bit more circumspect in what they believe.

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Despite what all of the top brass at Ford are saying, I think they would be ECSTATIC if BEV and hybrids hit 20% of sales by 2025 !

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The beauty of hybrids and phevs is that they can shift production between them and regular models to meet whatever demand is there as it changes over time.   Today might only be 10%, next year might be 30%.   With BEVs it's all or nothing.   I think it's a smart move.

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3 hours ago, akirby said:

The beauty of hybrids and phevs is that they can shift production between them and regular models to meet whatever demand is there as it changes over time.   Today might only be 10%, next year might be 30%.   With BEVs it's all or nothing.   I think it's a smart move.

They were already doing it for years with C-Max and Focus BEV on the same line. 

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8 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

They were already doing it for years with C-Max and Focus BEV on the same line. 

 

No, I'm talking about designing and building one vehicle (top hat, chassis, etc.) with different powertrains versus 2 entirely different vehicles. 

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9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

I agree with you jpd80 sir. Personally, I'm confident in Ford's capability to become a leader with BEV, which is one pillar of the automotive industry's future. I was simply noting the opportunity costs for Ford and Toyota for pursuing hybrids right now rather than going "all in" with BEV as GM and VW are doing. Toyota also has opportunity costs for investing in FCEV over BEV recently.

Thank you.

the opportunity costs are different for the respective players an existing ICE auto maker transitioning to Electrification has two choices, either progress through the intermediate hybrid steps or leap straight to BEV.  GM and VW are doing the latter which gives the immediate wow effect both are looking for as a market advantage but Ford and Toyota are committed to hybrids and PHEVs which is a great way to transition major products, resources and existing buyers as well as getting them ready for BEVs.

 

Quote

There's a strong possibility that Ford's BEV F-Series will come out before Tesla Pickup truck. A truly capable BEV full size pickup truck will be a game changer. I think Ford will win in this area thanks to its expertise with pickup trucks combined with its growing BEV development abilities.

Absolutely,  Tesla constantly up against it with Funding while Ford has Billions in the bank, an open check book in comparison supported by  mature production lines sales. The disrupor will tell you that it's hard for Ford to give up it's ICE F Trucks but the reality is that a BEV F Truck is just another Version of F150 carefully crafted to make use of all existing production facilities and supplier resources.

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12 hours ago, theoldwizard said:

Despite what all of the top brass at Ford are saying, I think they would be ECSTATIC if BEV and hybrids hit 20% of sales by 2025 !

From your lips to god’s ears.

EV, AV and connectivity have been so oversold 

that now, Ford thinks they’re the utter slam dunk,

just provide vehicles/ services, charge a fortune and whamo,

billions and billions of profits, right? 

Absolutely fool proof, can’t go wrong, ‘cause the boss says so

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