fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 33 minutes ago, probowler said: I kinnd of would love to see Ford build some kind of super flexible overflow plant (as someone suggested earlier) in a more liberty-minded state....give them the ability to churn out broncos or anything that much faster and without fear of being shutdown. That's not economically feasible. At all. Ford is spending $1B dollars on tooling for MAP just for Bronco alone, and that's less than 2 years after spending a billion on tooling for Ranger. Now take into account they would have to build an entirely new plant for this plus spend multiple billions on tooling to be able to build every single vehicle they produce and it's just not possible, and that's before figuring in the cost to ship parts from all over the world and warehouse it all to be able to build anything at a moment's notice. There's no way. 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, probowler said: That's a good point, we're potentially 2 years away from filling the lots full of Broncos. Lucky for Ford, they have other vehicles you're interested. It would be a shame however if they lost potential conquest customers during that time as hype and patience dies down. I kind of would love to see Ford build some kind of super flexible overflow plant (as someone suggested earlier) in a more liberty-minded state....give them the ability to churn out broncos or anything that much faster and without fear of being shutdown. Can’t Flat Rock be used going forward??? Put in the tooling there. Are they not under capacity??? It sure as hell won’t be Oakville so why not use the extra capacity in flat rock when Map is maxed out???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Just now, Oacjay98 said: Can’t Flat Rock be used going forward??? Put in the tooling there. Are they not under capacity??? It sure as hell won’t be Oakville so why not use the extra capacity in flat rock when Map is maxed out???? I also know that would also be a huge cost to tool another plant in the event that MAP is maxed out on a 3 shift operation and can’t keep up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said: Can’t Flat Rock be used going forward??? Put in the tooling there. Are they not under capacity??? It sure as hell won’t be Oakville so why not use the extra capacity in flat rock when Map is maxed out???? Flat Rock needs extensive renovation to be able to build SUVs. There's places that anything taller than a sedan cannot fit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Oacjay98 said: Can’t Flat Rock be used going forward??? Put in the tooling there. Are they not under capacity??? It sure as hell won’t be Oakville so why not use the extra capacity in flat rock when Map is maxed out???? It's not like Ford hasn't used two plants to build a certain vehicle. Think F-150 now and Taurus 15+ years ago. During Explorers heyday, that too was built in two plants. There have been others also like the Fusion not that long ago. I also get it......Ford is losing money now and doesn't have extra billions laying around. But if Ford stays swamped with orders with no let up and no way of delivering vehicles in any kind of timely way, then maybe it is a two plant vehicle and worth the expense. Ford badly needs another huge hit besides F-Series. Bronco seems to be it so far. One shift building 100,000 vehicles/year doesn't equal a hit. And three shifts doesn't sound safe during a pandemic. Ford does have a dilemma. A dilemma, but a dilemma nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: It's not like Ford hasn't used two plants to build a certain vehicle. Think F-150 now and Taurus 15+ years ago. During Explorers heyday, that too was built in two plants. There have been others also like the Fusion not that long ago. I also get it......Ford is losing money now and doesn't have extra billions laying around. But if Ford stays swamped with orders with no let up and no way of delivering vehicles in any kind of timely way, then maybe it is a two plant vehicle and worth the expense. Ford badly needs another huge hit besides F-Series. Bronco seems to be it so far. One shift building 100,000 vehicles/year doesn't equal a hit. And three shifts doesn't sound safe during a pandemic. Ford does have a dilemma. A dilemma, but a dilemma nonetheless. I think we might be over estimating demand for the bronco a bit. The wrangler is basically the only player in its segment and it sales have been between 190k and 240k the past few years. Those are good numbers but it doesn’t have any competition. Imagine how many f150 sales there would be if there were no other trucks, or how many explorer sales there would be if there were no other mid size SUVs? The bronco will definitely bring some new people to this segment, and it will bring over some wrangler owners too, but I think ford will be happy selling 100-150k broncos a year at 40-60k a pop. Edited July 25, 2020 by T-dubz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) Correct, Bronco will not be a 300K/ year vehicle and once initial interest calms down, sales will probably end up being equal with Ranger. MAP will be more than capable of coping with all manufacturing on its own, remembering that NG Ranger is coming. Edited July 25, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, T-dubz said: I think we might be over estimating demand for the bronco a bit. The wrangler is basically the only player in its segment and it sales have been between 190k and 240k the past few years. Those are good numbers but it doesn’t have any competition. Imagine how many f150 sales there would be if there were no other trucks, or how many explorer sales there would be if there were no other mid size SUVs? The bronco will definitely bring some new people to this segment, and it will bring over some wrangler owners too, but I think ford will be happy selling 100-150k broncos a year at 40-60k a pop. You may be right, but the interest in this vehicle is beyond anything I have ever seen. I don't even think I can count how many You Tube videos there on this vehicle. Only Ford knows how many orders they have, but they could probably sell this vehicle around the world like the Model T. I believe the Mustang is the best selling sports car in Europe. Canada alone will probably buy 25,000 of them/year. There is a lot more interest in the Bronco than the Sport, and I would imagine Ford has a high volume sales goal for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: You may be right, but the interest in this vehicle is beyond anything I have ever seen. I don't even think I can count how many You Tube videos there on this vehicle. Only Ford knows how many orders they have, but they could probably sell this vehicle around the world like the Model T. I believe the Mustang is the best selling sports car in Europe. Canada alone will probably buy 25,000 of them/year. There is a lot more interest in the Bronco than the Sport, and I would imagine Ford has a high volume sales goal for it. i don’t remember the exact numbers, but I thought ford was shooting for 250k bronco and bronco sports combined, with the majority of those coming from the sport. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 We will just have to watch and see how the situation plays out. Initial demand will be high and will probably continue to be steady. The bean counters and brainiacs should run things at ford will figure it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 55 minutes ago, jpd80 said: Correct, Bronco will not be a 300K/ year vehicle and once initial interest calms down, sales will probably end up being equal with Ranger. MAP will be more than capable of coping with all manufacturing on its own, remembering that NG Ranger is coming. So why do you think Bronco sales will wane down to perhaps 100,000/year over a relatively short time JPD? It's clearly better looking than Wrangler, better vehicle on paper at least, in a growing segment, GM has no answer, and interest and demand for it beyond Ford's wildest dreams. I agree after a year or so incentives will pick up, but sales waning? If anything, Ford will add new models and engines/batteries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: It's not like Ford hasn't used two plants to build a certain vehicle. Think F-150 now and Taurus 15+ years ago. During Explorers heyday, that too was built in two plants. There have been others also like the Fusion not that long ago. I also get it......Ford is losing money now and doesn't have extra billions laying around. But if Ford stays swamped with orders with no let up and no way of delivering vehicles in any kind of timely way, then maybe it is a two plant vehicle and worth the expense. Ford badly needs another huge hit besides F-Series. Bronco seems to be it so far. One shift building 100,000 vehicles/year doesn't equal a hit. And three shifts doesn't sound safe during a pandemic. Ford does have a dilemma. A dilemma, but a dilemma nonetheless. At that point though it would make sense to split the ranger or bronco into it's own dedicated plant (they're being built together right someone?). I think others are right overall that sales probably won't be quite so astronomical. There might just be too much competition today, perhaps we'll never see those massive sales figures of the past. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: So why do you think Bronco sales will wane down to perhaps 100,000/year over a relatively short time JPD? It's clearly better looking than Wrangler, better vehicle on paper at least, in a growing segment, GM has no answer, and interest and demand for it beyond Ford's wildest dreams. I agree after a year or so incentives will pick up, but sales waning? If anything, Ford will add new models and engines/batteries. The thing you have to remember is that after about twelve months, the next gen Ranger willnbe here and I expect both to be around 125k to 150k per year a piece, that's a combined of 300k per year and if they get that MAP will be three shifts. Keep in mind that Bronco is more expensive than Wrangler and that will calm sales a bit plus there's also Bronco Sport below it that will all that some buyers really want. Keep in mind too that positive ground swell of approval for Bronco on the internet does not necessarily guarantee that those people will go out and buy one. And if Bronco is sold out in the first year, then that means there's no need for incentives and by then, Ford will probably be working a rich sales mix of trims it wants to produce. Edited July 25, 2020 by jpd80 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, probowler said: At that point though it would make sense to split the ranger or bronco into it's own dedicated plant (they're being built together right someone?). I think others are right overall that sales probably won't be quite so astronomical. There might just be too much competition today, perhaps we'll never see those massive sales figures of the past. You're never going to see sales like 300k or 400k per year as there are just so many vehicle choices for buyers compared to yester year when Detroit ruled domestic sales. That and the fact that Ford's strategy of premium pricing will help to moderate sales, it's what Ford does to make more money off fewer sales, they like to call it expending fewer resources but to you and me, it's the equivalent of charging theme park prices for a hot dog... Edited July 25, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 13 hours ago, FordBuyer said: One shift building 100,000 vehicles/year doesn't equal a hit. One shift building 100K units per year in a segment that has been topping out at 240K units per year is an absolute home run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, SoonerLS said: One shift building 100K units per year in a segment that has been topping out at 240K units per year is an absolute home run. Nope, not good enough. Shut it down. Might as well just shut the whole company down while they're at it. Can't keep up with demand so why bother? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 58 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Nope, not good enough. Shut it down. Might as well just shut the whole company down while they're at it. Can't keep up with demand so why bother? Maybe there's some middle ground here. Maybe they could stop all car production and turn it over to SUVs? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 minute ago, SoonerLS said: Maybe there's some middle ground here. Maybe they could stop all car production and turn it over to SUVs? Nope close the whole company. 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, rmc523 said: Nope close the whole company. Agreed. This is the only correct solution. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Agreed. This is the only correct solution. You guys are gonna be working your tails off, hope there's a big fat profit sharing check on top of all the overtime. Any idea of how many will be employed over at the modification centre at the old Wayne plant? Edited July 25, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, jpd80 said: You guys are gonna be working your tails off, hope there's a big fat profit sharing check on top of all the overtime. As big of a disaster financially this year has been, I wouldn't be surprised if profit sharing didn't happen at all in March 17 minutes ago, jpd80 said: Any idea of how many will be employed over at the modification centre at the old Wayne plant? Not a clue 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: As big of a disaster financially this year has been, I wouldn't be surprised if profit sharing didn't happen at all in March Not a clue Good to hear. I saw last year's announcement for MAP where Ford said $750 million investment and 2,700 direct jobs, good to see numbers growing in the future, sort of goes against we've come to expect recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ausrutherford Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Ranger capacity should be helped with the Maverick down below it. I think Wayne will be fine at 2 10-hour shifts plus some Saturdays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, ausrutherford said: Ranger capacity should be helped with the Maverick down below it. I think Wayne will be fine at 2 10-hour shifts plus some Saturdays. Im sure they'll offer some voluntary Sunday's too if demand supports it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ausrutherford Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Im sure they'll offer some voluntary Sunday's too if demand supports it I suspect that would be easy to do. What do you think capacity is with two extended shifts + Saturdays + Sundays? 275k maybe? You are basically getting the equivalent of 3 5-day shifts at that rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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