Tesla

[mlhm5]

Does anyone really think the Rivian R1T or the Mach E is anything more than a way to trick investors into believing Ford actually stand a chance in the EV market?

 

Neither will be available until 2021 and both will have fewer miles than either the projected range of the Cybertruck or the Model 3 as it is configured right now. By 2021 the mileage of Model 3 and the Model Y (2020 intro) will be enhanced because of new battery technology. BTW, Cybertruck is an evolutionary product that has just set new standards for pick-up trucks.

Tesla is so far ahead in producing cheap batteries, Ford will either have to sell their EVs at a loss or at a higher non-competitive price. Ford will also see their ICE fleets replaced by EVs thus causing losses at both ends of the market.

Tesla has developed its own AI chip which is vertically integrated into the business (same as Apple and we know whose phone you have) so instead of having a complex car with a fancy dial-up computer Tesla has a high-speed computer with a car built into it.

Tesla will be the first self-driving car since they have 14 billion miles collected, 3 orders of magnitude more than Google who is in second place. All the neuro nets must be trained by real-world driving. It cannot be faked and cannot be simulated. Tesla may be late, but they will be first.

Tesla is now and will be the only company, who updates the performance of its cars OTA, just like your iPhone/iPad.

Additionally, Tesla is approaching 7,000 level 3 superchargers in North America, 2000 in China and is converting them to V3 which has charge rates at up to 1,000 miles per hour. The Gigafactory in China is built and producing cars after only 11 months starting from a muddy field, and the Berlin Gigafactory will be producing cars in 2021.

Edited December 21, 2019 by mlhm5
spelling

[twintornados]

[MY93SHO]

[92merc]

16 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

Tesla is now and will be the only company, who updates the performance of its cars OTA, just like your iPhone/iPad.

 

Tesla is going to be nothing more than a pile of bones in 10 years.  Sooner or later, their shell game of a pyramid scheme to raise funds for the "next big thing" will come to a crashing halt.  All that will be left is the patents going to the highest bidder.

 

And Ford already announced their Mach-E will get OTA updates.  So "fake news" there buddy.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/fords-mustang-mach-e-begins-new-era-of-software-updates/

[fuzzymoomoo]

16 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

Blah blah blah I'm a completely impartial Tesla slappy 

 

Why do you bother posting? 

[twintornados]

[mlhm5]

Why is Ford spending time and money developing an EV truck using a last-century strategy of leaving the charging infrastructure to others?  I’ve got news for Ford, GM has the same strategy and it isn’t working, and they have been building mass-market EVs since 2010. Despite what Ford says about updating the performance of its EV, which will not come for some time, according to Ford,  Tesla has been doing that for years and until Ford actually does it, then it is just vaporware. FYI, Tesla has open-sourced many of its patents.

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by mlhm5

[akirby]

Ford and GM Will actually make a profit.  They’re not a Ponzi scheme like Tesla. Field charging is still a non starter for most people even with superchargers.  

[fuzzymoomoo]

You know what else is vapor ware?

 

Tesla Semi

New Tesla Roadster

Tesla profitability 

 

/thread 

Edited December 22, 2019 by fuzzymoomoo

[mlhm5]

My point is that Ford's Rivian R1T and the Mach E is nothing more than a way to trick investors into believing Ford actually stands a chance in the EV market. Ford is so uncommitted to EV that they are completely dependent on others to install Level 3 charging stations throughout the USA and have not even considered having Level 3 charging stations for multiple cars at each dealership.

[akirby]

Field charging is only viable for folks who don’t mind planning their trip and schedule around charging and the average buyer won’t do that until it’s almost as convenient and fast as gasoline.

 

Installing level 3 chargers is prohibitively expensive.  Tesla gets away with it because it’s a Ponzi scheme that doesn’t have to make a profit.  
 

Mach-E and F150 BEV owners will charge at home and drive locally.  That’s the only real volume BEV Positive business case.  Ford is serious about BEVs to the extent they can make a profit.

 

Why do Teslaphiles not understand this?

[MY93SHO]

22 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

My point is that Ford's Rivian R1T and the Mach E is nothing more than a way to trick investors into believing Ford actually stands a chance in the EV market. Ford is so uncommitted to EV that they are completely dependent on others to install Level 3 charging stations throughout the USA and have not even considered having Level 3 charging stations for multiple cars at each dealership.

Who kicked you out from under your rock?

 

 

[sullynd]

There is no Ford “Rivian R1T”.  The F150 BEV is a Ford BEV. Ford Rivian investment will result in a Lincoln BEV SUV. 

[mlhm5]

12 minutes ago, akirby said:

Field charging is only viable for folks who don’t mind planning their trip and schedule around charging and the average buyer won’t do that until it’s almost as convenient and fast as gasoline.

 

Installing level 3 chargers is prohibitively expensive.  Tesla gets away with it because it’s a Ponzi scheme that doesn’t have to make a profit.  
 

Mach-E and F150 BEV owners will charge at home and drive locally.  That’s the only real volume BEV Positive business case.  Ford is serious about BEVs to the extent they can make a profit.

 

Why do Teslaphiles not understand this?

The limited availability of public FCS (Level 3, not Level 2) is a psychological barrier to EV sales to drivers of conventional vehicles. Ford like GM is not serious about EVs and despite all the hype surrounding Ford and GM's commitment to EVs, without access to a robust FCS network they are just developing concept vehicles and they know it. Both GM and Ford have embraced the failed strategy that someone else will use their money/marketing/development and install FCS throughout the USA for Ford and GM cars.Unlike Europe, the major oil companies in the USA are not interested. Tesla is upgrading their Supercharging network to V3 which you can get 75 miles in 5 minutes.

[akirby]

300 mile range with at home charging is just fine for a large majority of non Teslaphiles who have other ICE vehicles for longer trips.  And they can be sold at a profit.

 

What Tesla does is meaningless from a market perspective.  Anybody can sell vehicles if they underprice them by tens of thousands of dollars and lose millions.

 

 

[Assimilator]

I have a hard time believing that the future of EVs requires everybody to build out their own proprietary charging network like Tesla.  I don't know what people expect Ford to do about that, it's a network that has to be built out by market forces or cooperation between all the other automakers.  Ultimately that may yield WAY more charging stations than Tesla could ever hope to fund for their own cars.  It's just not going to happen instantly and time is on everybody's side when it comes to EV tech because it's rapidly advancing.

 

Ford ultimately needs time to develop their cars and to sell to and support their EV customers.  What Tesla has pulled off took time and it wasn't easy, essentially only they can do what they did and this would have NEVER happened at a traditional automaker who can't run any business on significant risk and loss.

 

It's also weird to me that anybody would see this as a Ford exclusive problem, every automaker is scrambling to figure out what to do about Tesla.  Ford certainly is no further behind than anybody else, and perhaps they are further ahead on the right products.  But again, it takes time and this will remain a small market while the infrastructure and tech matures.  Come back in 10 years and then judge.  

 

Nobody can accuse Ford of sitting on their bums, I don't know what more people want from them.  Hybrids, PHEVs, BEVs with Tesla matching range and performance.  Even a coveted Rivian Skateboard underpinning a Lincoln.  They even partnered with VW to get the affordable EVs flowing in Europe.  I don't know anybody else with such a comprehensive approach across multiple markets and segments. 

 

I've constantly said that I love Tesla, but I know Ford can actually make the BEV I want.  A utility with the functionality and amenities that Tesla is lacking.  Tesla doesn't have amenities I consider to be basic (Android Auto, CarPlay, Voice control, heated steering wheel, ventilated seats, wireless charging, memory recall, etc.).  Telsa's AV tech is far ahead right now, but Ford's AV technology also involves attention monitoring which Tesla is not doing and it may become mandatory and essential for the tech to work.  Tesla still has time to update their tech, but the pace of change at Tesla is really slow now.  

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Assimilator

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

32 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

Nobody can accuse Ford of sitting on their bums, I don't know what more people want from them.  Hybrids, PHEVs, BEVs with Tesla matching range and performance.  Even a coveted Rivian Skateboard underpinning a Lincoln.  They even partnered with VW to get the affordable EVs flowing in Europe.  I don't know anybody else with such a comprehensive approach across multiple markets and segments. 

 

Wait a minute, didn't you just the other day say that Ford was well behind GM? 

[mlhm5]

31 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

I have a hard time believing that the future of EVs requires everybody to build out their own proprietary charging network like Tesla.  I don't know what people expect Ford to do about that, it's a network that has to be built out by market forces or cooperation between all the other automakers.  Ultimately that may yield WAY more charging stations than Tesla could ever hope to fund for their own cars.  It's just not going to happen instantly and time is on everybody's side when it comes to EV tech because it's rapidly advancing.

 

Ford ultimately needs time to develop their cars and to sell to and support their EV customers.  What Tesla has pulled off took time and it wasn't easy, essentially only they can do what they did and this would have NEVER happened at a traditional automaker who can't run any business on significant risk and loss.

 

It's also weird to me that anybody would see this as a Ford exclusive problem, every automaker is scrambling to figure out what to do about Tesla.  Ford certainly is no further behind than anybody else, and perhaps they are further ahead on the right products.  But again, it takes time and this will remain a small market while the infrastructure and tech matures.  Come back in 10 years and then judge.  

 

Nobody can accuse Ford of sitting on their bums, I don't know what more people want from them.  Hybrids, PHEVs, BEVs with Tesla matching range and performance.  Even a coveted Rivian Skateboard underpinning a Lincoln.  They even partnered with VW to get the affordable EVs flowing in Europe.  I don't know anybody else with such a comprehensive approach across multiple markets and segments. 

 

I've constantly said that I love Tesla, but I know Ford can actually make the BEV I want.  A utility with the functionality and amenities that Tesla is lacking.  Tesla doesn't have amenities I consider to be basic (Android Auto, CarPlay, Voice control, heated steering wheel, ventilated seats, wireless charging, memory recall, etc.).  Telsa's AV tech is far ahead right now, but Ford's AV technology also involves attention monitoring which Tesla is not doing and it may become mandatory and essential for the tech to work.  Tesla still has time to update their tech, but the pace of change at Tesla is really slow now.  

 

Let me argue about the chicken and the egg.

In Europe all the major oil companies are already heavily invested in FCS, however, that is far from the case here in the USA. In order to sell EVs to people who are driving ICEs, there has to be a robust FCS network. Not too many people are going to spend $40K or more for a vehicle that has to be charged in their garage and is limited to 1/2 or less of the stated range. Many factors work against the range like weather and driver fear of running out of charge, so without a robust FCS network, why would people would be willing to pay $40K for a car that they can only drive to work and back when you can buy a Prius, Honda Claris, etc. that gets 50mpg and you can drive anywhere? Without a robust FCS network, there will be a limited pool of the same EV customers for Ford, GM, and any other manufacturer that is in the business of EVs. 

If you build it they will come, but no one in the USA except Tesla is building it and that is why Ford, GM, etc. will only appeal to a very small market.

[akirby]

I’d be willing to bet the majority of Tesla owners only charge at home or at work.

[Assimilator]

Most Tesla owners rarely use a Supercharger, that is true.  And with increasing range, charging stations are actually becoming LESS important.  Ford's wisdom on this is sound, most people will never charge outside of the home and won't need to with this kind of battery range.  The charging network is a false fear, it's not nearly as critical as people think.  Weirdly people who don't have EVs still think in terms of fueling up, forgetting that they get to top off every night.  If you could pump your gas at home, how often do you think you'll need a gas station?  In my case, that would have meant only once in the past 10 years when I took a vacation to Mackinac.  For others that may be different, but for a vast majority of people, once you get over 300 miles of range, you're going to be a statistical outlier, never mind that there is an existing and growing network for those instances.  People will get over this FUD with time and experience.  And again, the tech is evolving in this extended timeline, what's true today won't be tomorrow and Ford knows that.  

 

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Assimilator

[CurtisH]

We will probably replace my wife’s Edge in about 18 months.  It won’t be an EV.  That is the vehicle we usually take on vacation.  Some of our trips don’t involve highways.  I’m not interested in finding charging stations in small towns and have to wait 30-60 minutes for it to charge.

 

I might replace my Mustang with an EV, but I won’t be replacing it for about 10 years.  By then, charging should not be an issue anymore.  It won’t be a Tesla.  I want a local dealership to handle any issues I have. And to be honest, I don’t expect Tesla to be around then.  I have a few friends that feel the same way. 

[sullynd]

The Mach-E will replace our Flex, and the Edge will go to my wife. We’ll be keeping the Flex tho, so in the off chance we both need cars that have a longer range I’ll use the Flex. Eventually the Flex will become my sons car, provided it holds up. 

[twintornados]

14 hours ago, Assimilator said:

I have a hard time believing that the future of EVs requires everybody to build out their own proprietary charging network like Tesla. 

 

And that is the conundrum...lets look back to the 70's when all of the car companies were switching from leaded gas to unleaded gas...the fueling dispenser was standardized so that the fuel delivery connection point would fit in ALL cars regardless of manufacturer...Elon would LOVE to have his "fuel connection point" be the standard for all others to adopt because then he would be making huge profits in the fuel delivery business. Once the federal government steps in and makes a "standard" for all users of EV propulsion products, that is when the tipping point will have passed and ICE will slowly begin to fade.

[mlhm5]

21 hours ago, Assimilator said:

Most Tesla owners rarely use a Supercharger, that is true.  And with increasing range, charging stations are actually becoming LESS important.  Ford's wisdom on this is sound, most people will never charge outside of the home and won't need to with this kind of battery range.  The charging network is a false fear, it's not nearly as critical as people think.  Weirdly people who don't have EVs still think in terms of fueling up, forgetting that they get to top off every night.  If you could pump your gas at home, how often do you think you'll need a gas station?  In my case, that would have meant only once in the past 10 years when I took a vacation to Mackinac.  For others that may be different, but for a vast majority of people, once you get over 300 miles of range, you're going to be a statistical outlier, never mind that there is an existing and growing network for those instances.  People will get over this FUD with time and experience.  And again, the tech is evolving in this extended timeline, what's true today won't be tomorrow and Ford knows that.  

 

 

When you buy an ICE car, you operate it the same way since they were invented. It can drive for many hundreds of miles before refueling. If it needs gas, you go to a gas station—they’re everywhere. If you want to tour America, you don’t even think of, let alone worry about, where you’ll be able to make a pit stop. Most of that is true for Tesla vehicles. None of that is true for non-Tesla vehicles.

[mlhm5]

20 hours ago, CurtisH said:

We will probably replace my wife’s Edge in about 18 months.  It won’t be an EV.  That is the vehicle we usually take on vacation.  Some of our trips don’t involve highways.  I’m not interested in finding charging stations in small towns and have to wait 30-60 minutes for it to charge.

 

I might replace my Mustang with an EV, but I won’t be replacing it for about 10 years.  By then, charging should not be an issue anymore.  It won’t be a Tesla.  I want a local dealership to handle any issues I have. And to be honest, I don’t expect Tesla to be around then.  I have a few friends that feel the same way. 

 My point exactly. Mainstream car buyers must be convinced that charging a battery is at least as convenient as filling a gas tank.