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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

For 100% electric, within 20 years. In the European Union, there have calls by environment ministers to ban the sale of new ICE powered vehicles by 2040. Some EU members have proposed target dates for such bans even earlier. The EU standards will influence transportation sector climate neutrality proposals in other parts of the world too.....

 

100% within 20 years?  Doubtful.  BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) puts it at 57% by 2040.  And many folks consider their estimate optimistic.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/15/business/electric-car-outlook-bloomberg/index.html

 

 

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4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Has Toyota figured out how to sell BEV and FCEV for more than it cost them to develop, test, assemble, and market those products? If not, Toyota will need do so sooner rather than later if they want to stay relevant in the automotive industry.

 

3 hours ago, akirby said:


Actually Ford, GM and Toyota could afford to sell their BEVs at a loss for a few years subsidized by the rest of the lineup.  They’ll also be able to handle volume production and delivery more easily.  And they’ll have a $7500 price advantage over Tesla for a few years.  There is nothing magic about BEVs.


I don't understand the rush to be number one, especially to just turn around and give your product away at a loss. When the market is ready, and the technology is ready, we won't need government or private subsidies to sell BEVs.

As long as Ford is doing research and due diligence to prepare for when BEVs are mature enough for mass market appeal, I have no problem with their approach. It does seem like we're almost at that point though. In the meantime, Ford has more important concerns such as improving new vehicle launches and ensuring long-term quality and reliability... factors which affect ALL their vehicles.

Is Tesla making a profit on it's vehicle sales yet? I assume at least some of their higher end models are finally now profitable?

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11 hours ago, probowler said:

Is Tesla making a profit on it's vehicle sales yet? I assume at least some of their higher end models are finally now profitable?

 

In 2018, Munro and Associates did a teardown analysis of Model 3 Long Range with a sticker price of about $55k. He calculated a gross profit on that car of 30%, making it the most profitable BEV at the time. Now that Model 3 production volume has increased and improvements have been made to Tesla's production processes, profitability is probably even higher today.

 

 

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12 hours ago, probowler said:



As long as Ford is doing research and due diligence to prepare for when BEVs are mature enough for mass market appeal, I have no problem with their approach. It does seem like we're almost at that point though. In the meantime, Ford has more important concerns such as improving new vehicle launches and ensuring long-term quality and reliability... factors which affect ALL their vehicles.

 

They have had product launch problems for 20 years and quality issues are still a big problem. This will never change. It's all talk and no action.

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

In 2018, Munro and Associates did a teardown analysis of Model 3 Long Range with a sticker price of about $55k. He calculated a gross profit on that car of 30%, making it the most profitable BEV at the time. Now that Model 3 production volume has increased and improvements have been made to Tesla's production processes, profitability is probably even higher today.

 

As the only volume vehicle it also has to cover most of the overhead costs - the factory itself, all the R&D on new vehicles, building the supercharger network and providing free charging, all of the sales locations.  Ford has already covered all that overhead with their regular lineup except for the batteries.  That's the big cost advantage the major mfrs have over Tesla.

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17 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

For 100% electric, within 20 years. In the European Union, there have calls by environment ministers to ban the sale of new ICE powered vehicles by 2040. Some EU members have proposed target dates for such bans even earlier. The EU standards will influence transportation sector climate neutrality proposals in other parts of the world too.

 

For 100% autonomous, within 20 years to get at least Level 3 autonomous hardware and software into all new cars and trucks. But widespread activation and deployment of that capability will depend on regulatory frameworks becoming optimized for AVs. Right now, regulatory barriers are the biggest impediment to AV development, testing, and deployment.

 

I'm going to laugh when all these governments suddenly wake up and realize how horrible the battery creation is for the environment, and then suddenly EVs won't be allowed.

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1 hour ago, jcartwright99 said:

Tesla had a great year sales wise and they lost just under a billion. Just think about that for a minute. Makes zero sense but hey they are Tesla. They don't play by the same rules as other companies.

 

And I assume that was WITH carbon credits and at least some tax credit to help sales.  And no real competition from volume mfrs.

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27 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

And I assume that was WITH carbon credits and at least some tax credit to help sales.  And no real competition from volume mfrs.

 

I think this year Tesla will get another boost in sales volume, even in the U.S. with the loss of tax credits, when the Y starts shipping, the small crossover Y being in the vehicle segment that sells these days. That might eat some into 3 sales (the Y mostly being a lifted 3 with a rear greenhouse). China and Europe sales should be up some as well. But the company's structure doesn't scale well and making annual profits is likely to remain elusive. 

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30 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

 

I think this year Tesla will get another boost in sales volume, even in the U.S. with the loss of tax credits, when the Y starts shipping, the small crossover Y being in the vehicle segment that sells these days. That might eat some into 3 sales (the Y mostly being a lifted 3 with a rear greenhouse). China and Europe sales should be up some as well. But the company's structure doesn't scale well and making annual profits is likely to remain elusive. 


How are they going to build the Y when they were maxed out with X production and had to use tents?  Did they add more factory capacity?  With Y being cheaper and addin more overhead I don’t see how that’s going to help.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:


How are they going to build the Y when they were maxed out with X production and had to use tents?  Did they add more factory capacity?  With Y being cheaper and addin more overhead I don’t see how that’s going to help.

 

The new plant in China probably helps alleviate some of that capacity issue.

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Their stock price is all emotional now. This reminds me of the Bitcoin craze a few years back. No logic can explain it, yet the price would go up. Every Joe Blow wanted to get in on the action. Then the bottom fell out. When you can't explain it and a company loses year over year,  it all based on emotion. This will come back to earth eventually,  if Tesla can't consistently make money. Doesn't matter how many cars they sell or flame throwers or tax credits.That is guaranteed.

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3 hours ago, akirby said:


How are they going to build the Y when they were maxed out with X production and had to use tents?  Did they add more factory capacity?  With Y being cheaper and addin more overhead I don’t see how that’s going to help.

 

You might be right. I assumed they would start importing from their new production facility in China, but don't really follow Tesla issues closely and don't know what's feasible for them.

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1 minute ago, Gurgeh said:

 

You might be right. I assumed they would start importing from their new production facility in China, but don't really follow Tesla issues closely and don't know what's feasible for them.

 

That might fix a capacity issue but it ain't gonna help the bottom line.

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8 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

Good lord,,,,,,

 

HRG

TSLA 01302020.JPG

 

It's a good time to read or re-read Professor Enrique Dans' article in Forbes, December 26, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2019/12/26/tesla-theres-none-so-blind-as-those-who-will-notsee/#7277181f665a

 

"For some time now, I’ve been discussing Tesla’s valuation with fellow academics who specialize in finance and strategy: irresponsible skeptics trying to convince their students that the company is overvalued, that its price is the result of some kind of collective hallucination, and that Elon Musk is little more than a charlatan who has amazingly managed to fool a lot of the people for a lot of the time. For a company founded in 2003 and that went public in 2010, things aren’t looking too bad at all. At what point, to borrow Matthew Henry’s famous question, will the deaf hear, the blind see, and the skeptics understand that we are talking about a different kind of company, one that can only be assessed on its quest to change the world we live in?

 

What is a company capable of turning entire industries upside down and ultimately changing the world worth? According to the markets on Tuesday [12/24/2019], $420 per share, making it worth $75 billion, greater than traditional carmakers such as Ford or GM. But in practice, Tesla is worth more, much more. Understanding this comes down to really wanting to hear and to see. And that means accepting the evidence and that one was wrong, which in turn requires a certain level of intelligence that still seems to be sadly lacking in many quarters."

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Quote

fellow academics who specialize in finance and strategy

 

Translation - idealists who have no clue about how to run businesses in the real world. 

 

Businesses that can't at least break even can only stay in business as long as they can get loans or investment capital and that won't last forever.  It doesn't matter how good the intentions are or that the business is a disruptor.   That only makes it attractive to investors on an emotional level.   But 20% of Telsa shareholders are shorting it - looking to make money when it fails.  I'm sure a rather large portion are day traders just looking to ride the wave to get short term gains.

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17 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

Translation - idealists who have no clue about how to run businesses in the real world. 

 

Yes sir. Professor Dans recognizes that. In fact it's those academic idealists that Dans says are "irresponsible skeptics trying to convince their students that the company is overvalued, that its price is the result of some kind of collective hallucination, and that Elon Musk is little more than a charlatan who has amazingly managed to fool a lot of the people for a lot of the time."

 

And Dans is correct. Academics who claim Tesla is overvalued, etc., don't understand the company's mission or its accomplishments in transforming the automotive industry.

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4 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

And Dans is correct. Academics who claim Tesla is overvalued, etc., don't understand the company's mission or its accomplishments in transforming the automotive industry.

 

How long would your landscaping business stay in business if you were losing $10K/month?

 

Mission and accomplishments are fine and dandy but they don't pay the bills.   The attraction to Tesla and Tesla stock is purely emotional and not based in any type of financial reality.

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1 minute ago, akirby said:

How long would your landscaping business stay in business if you were losing $10K/month?

 

My family's landscaping business lost more than that the first month we started the business, actually. It took a lot of sacrifice, dedication, and commitment to satisfying customers so that word of mouth could get us new customers. My brother who is the primary owner and president has amazing tenacity and ability think ahead and adapt. I trusted in him, and provided whatever capital I could to keep it going.

 

It paid off. We've been in business since July 2005.

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Link to Tesla Q4 2019 & FY 2019 financial presentation. https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529

 

Highlights.

  • 2019 was a turning point for Tesla. We demonstrated strong organic demand for Model 3, returned to GAAP profitability in 2H19 and generated $1.1B of free cash flow for the year.
  • We achieved strong cash generation through persistent cost control across the business.
  • Our pace of execution has also improved significantly, as we have incorporated many learnings from our experience launching Model 3 in the United States. As a result, we were able to start Model 3 production in Gigafactory Shanghai in less than 10 months from breaking ground and have already begun the production ramp for Model Y in Fremont.
  • None of this would be possible without strong demand for our products. For most of 2019, nearly all orders came from new buyers that did not hold a prior reservation, demonstrating significant reach beyond those who showed early interest.
  • Amazingly, this was accomplished without any spend on advertising. As more people drive our cars and as the industry rapidly validates electrification, interest in our products will continue to grow.
  • Higher volumes driven by Model Y and Gigafactory Shanghai, continued improvements in operating leverage, and further cost efficiencies should allow Tesla to ultimately reach an industry-leading operating margin.
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