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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

My family's landscaping business lost more than that the first month we started the business, actually. It took a lot of sacrifice, dedication, and commitment to satisfying customers so that word of mouth could get us new customers. My brother who is the primary owner and president has amazing tenacity and ability think ahead and adapt. I trusted in him, and provided whatever capital I could to keep it going.

 

It paid off. We've been in business since July 2005.


As usual you missed the point.  At some point you had to start making a profit to stay in business.

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

My family's landscaping business lost more than that the first month we started the business, actually. It took a lot of sacrifice, dedication, and commitment to satisfying customers so that word of mouth could get us new customers. My brother who is the primary owner and president has amazing tenacity and ability think ahead and adapt. I trusted in him, and provided whatever capital I could to keep it going.

 

It paid off. We've been in business since July 2005.

Could you lose $10,000 a month for 11 years?  Exactly.

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9 hours ago, CurtisH said:

Are you saying Tesla is profitable now or will become profitable?  I assume the later since they recently announced that they lost almost a billion dollars last Year. 

 

Both. The losses were in the 1st half of 2019, Tesla reported a net profit in the 2nd half (Q3 and Q4). Also they became free cash flow positive in Q2 and continued that for the rest of 2019. They're on track to be profitable and cash flow positive in 2020.

 

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Here's a pretty balanced analysis of Tesla from the LA Times. There's no denying that Tesla's 4th quarter report was, on balance, quite positive. But the key is, on balance. It was the first time that Tesla has reported two quarterly profits in a row, albeit with a little bit of smoke and mirrors (lots of companies do this with particular quarters, moving things around to make things look better than they are, or get bad news out of the way fast to make future quarters look better). This is why when looking at a company's profitability people pay most attention to annual profits. Still, quarterly trends are important. For instance:

 

On improvements in free cash flow it is a little more of a mixed bag:

"Free cash flow rose 11% from the same quarter a year earlier, to $1.01 billion. That was nearly triple the rate of the previous quarter. But accrued liabilities and accounts payable — basically bills not yet paid — rose sharply from a year earlier. Accrued liabilities rose 38% to $2.9 billion, and accounts payable rose 11% to $3.7 billion."

 

On profits, the trend looks good, but Tesla is not yet considered a profitable company:

"While solidly in the black, fourth-quarter net income fell 25% compared with the year-ago quarter, to $105 million, as measured by generally accepted accounting principles. Revenue rose 2% year over year to $7.38 billion for the quarter. Of that, $133 million came from sale of regulatory credits. For the full year, Tesla lost $775 million, compared with $1.06 billion in 2018. Its annual revenue grew 14.5% to $24.58 billion."

 

On sales growth, again overall positive news, with questions remaining

In the U.S.:

"Although total Tesla car deliveries grew 48% in 2019 to about 367,000 vehicles, the growth rate for the U.S. was only 14%, according to sales tracker InsideEvs. And for the last quarter of 2019, Tesla sales in California, by far the company’s largest U.S. market, dropped by half compared with the year-earlier period, to 13,584."

In Europe:

"Tesla sold about 109,000 cars in Europe last year, or about 31% of total EV sales, more than any other carmaker... But as heavy regulations forcing zero-emission car sales take effect in Europe, the competition from Europe’s own carmakers will be fierce. Tesla plans to build a new car factory near Berlin that eventually would produce 500,000 cars a year. Consistently rapid growth will be required to achieve that level."

In China:

"About 43,000 Teslas were sold in China in 2019, InsideEvs estimates. The company opened its new factory near Shanghai this month, and it plans to start pumping out cars an annual rate of 150,000, including the upcoming Model Y crossover. Annual capacity at the factory is planned to grow to 500,000. It’s unknowable at this point what effect the coronavirus will have on Tesla’s ability to ramp up production in China. At the very least, the outbreak could curtail movement of people, vehicles and goods. Whatever stems from the epidemic, Crow Point’s DeCaprio said, given weaker overall auto sales and intense EV competition, 'I don’t think there’s the demand in China that people think there is.' "

 

I am becoming more optimistic about Tesla making it. But they are not out of the woods.

 

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-01-29/tesla-earnings-musk

Edited by Gurgeh
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5 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

I am becoming more optimistic about Tesla making it. But they are not out of the woods.

 

I'm still not optimistic for the following reasons.

 

They're not refreshing any of the existing vehicles.  At some point you have to start doing refreshes across the board and that's significant overhead.

 

Regulatory credits will go away soon as more competitors enter the market.

 

They've already lost the federal tax credit.

 

They've been operating without any real competition.   Now they have Rivian, Ford and many others getting serious about competing and those newcomers do have the full $7500 tax credit.

 

Not saying it's impossible but the odds are not in their favor.

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15 minutes ago, akirby said:

I'm still not optimistic for the following reasons.

 

I said "more optimistic." Like you I'm not there yet,  though I'm approaching glass half full.

 

The funny thing is that Tesla could fail and still succeed based on Musk's own original criteria for judging success. He initially said Tesla was not about making a profit but about transforming the automotive landscape. ;)

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1 minute ago, Gurgeh said:

 

I said "more optimistic." Like you I'm not there yet,  though I'm approaching glass half full.

 

The funny thing is that Tesla could fail and still succeed based on Musk's own original criteria for judging success. He initially said Tesla was not about making a profit but about transforming the automotive landscape. ;)

 

Oh I agree they're having a huge impact on the industry and the technology will live on regardless.   And kudos to Musk for pulling it off so far and pushing the envelope.   It's just irritating that some people think they're actually going to challenge or displace the incumbent automakers and I don't see that happening.   At best they might remain a niche manufacturer.

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7 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

The funny thing is that Tesla could fail and still succeed based on Musk's own original criteria for judging success. He initially said Tesla was not about making a profit but about transforming the automotive landscape. ;)

 

Yes sir. In running Tesla, Elon Musk has never wavered from the company's mission. That mission is "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."

Tesla succeeded beyond what anyone expected when it was founded in 2003. They learned from their failures, and went from a niche player to a fast growing, highly respected premium brand. 

 

Tesla's influence goes beyond its own products and services (both cars and energy devices). Tesla helped rejuvenate the American automotive industry as a whole by bringing in lots of customers around the world who previously would have never considered American designed cars made by an American company. And it convinced the global auto industry that BEV and exiting the ICE age are not fads, but key components of the industry's entire future. In that sense, Tesla transformed the automotive landscape like no other company in several decades.

Edited by rperez817
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So how does the $2,500 deposits for the Model Y and the $100 deposit (250,000 reservations) at a $25 million.

 

I cant stand his business model of let take deposits years in advance so we can play with people's money.  If every single vehicle that is made is sold (questionable), then why do they need a deposit years in advance?

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2 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

I cant stand his business model of let take deposits years in advance so we can play with people's money.  If every single vehicle that is made is sold (questionable), then why do they need a deposit years in advance?

 

Tesla uses preorder deposits to gauge consumer interest & acceptance of new products, as well as input for production planning. It's a very sensible approach, particularly because Tesla doesn't use the traditional dealership model for selling its vehicles to retail customers. Also, Tesla doesn't spend any money on advertising like the incumbent automakers do.

 

If you don't like the concept of preorder deposits, consider purchasing a used Tesla car at a traditional dealership. That's what I did with my Model S. Be aware that depending on the U.S. state where you purchase the car, dealership processing fees may exceed the $100 Tesla charges as an "order fee" at its own retail locations. The dealership I did business with had a processing fee of $300.

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Tesla uses preorder deposits to gauge consumer interest & acceptance of new products, as well as input for production planning. It's a very sensible approach, particularly because Tesla doesn't use the traditional dealership model for selling its vehicles to retail customers. Also, Tesla doesn't spend any money on advertising like the incumbent automakers do.

 

If you don't like the concept of preorder deposits, consider purchasing a used Tesla car at a traditional dealership. That's what I did with my Model S. Be aware that depending on the U.S. state where you purchase the car, dealership processing fees may exceed the $100 Tesla charges as an "order fee" at its own retail locations. The dealership I did business with had a processing fee of $300.

 

Not if the deposits are refundable.  A refundable deposit means nothing.  They can get their money back at any time.  There is zero commitment when a refundable deposit is made.  

 

Their deposit system is purely interest free loans from consumers to continue running their business in the red.

 

You would be a great Marketing/PR spokesman for Tesla the way you constantly try to spin them in such a fantastic well operated company.

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39 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

You would be a great Marketing/PR spokesman for Tesla the way you constantly try to spin them in such a fantastic well operated company.

 

There is no "spin". And no need for a marketing/PR spokesman, other than Elon Musk himself. The naysayers (including TSLA short sellers) will of course continue their relentless attack on Tesla. But as long as Tesla stays true to its mission, and executes its long term strategy which goes far beyond just making cars and energy devices, the company's accomplishments as well its challenges will speak for themselves.

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By the time Ford has a good EV Tesla will have a Gigafactory on Mars. IMO ford has to rethink automotive and pace of innovation from the scratch in order to catch up. IMO Ford is only interested in getting tax credits to supplement their ICE car income and their BEV cars are non-existent today. I think if you look back over the last 5 years you will see a pattern.

Edited by mlhm5
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53 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

IMO Ford is only interested in getting tax credits to supplement their ICE car income


You clearly don't understand just how much Ford put into the Mach-E and its platform, and that's not to mention the work they’re doing on the Lincoln side with the Rivian investment/partnership and the agreement with VW. If they were only interested in compliance cars they would have only put in a very slight fraction of those resources into it. 
 

Way off the mark as usual. 

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9 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

InsideEVs is full of it and begging for clicks.

Title: Ford Engineer Claims Tesla Has Big Issues: Shoddy Build, Unsafe Parts

Second Line: The Ford engineer later deleted his comments, but the Internet lives on forever.

 

Curious, if it was posted on reddit and InsideEV linked to it, how is this something against InsideEV?  They didnt create the posts and conversations.

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26 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

You run with the headline and then take it back in the second line. Nothing but clickbait. Here is something Ford will never do unless they buy a Gigafactory from Tesla. 

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/31/teslas-vehicles-go-from-rolled-aluminum-to-a-finished-vehicle-in-48-hours/

 

Why do they need to build a gigafactory?  They already sell almost 7 times the vehicles and are net profitable year after year.  Seems they are doing just fine the way they are doing it.

 

At what point will their gigafactory need another gigafactory and another?  750k? 1mil?  Once they start building more factories, it's going to really resemble what all the other manufacturers are doing.

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