Tesla Stock

[Sevensecondsuv]

5 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No, I don't believe that at all. 

 It's pretty obvious to me.  You can't buy stock in the company which has nearly unlimited cushy govt contracts for flying rockets, so you buy stock in the next best thing: their sister company.

 

Nothing that Tesla does or has is worth even a fraction of their current market cap.

[twintornados]

11 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No, I don't believe that at all. 

 

Well, in fact, I do...

[coupe3w]

As Ford stock has trouble staying in the 8 to 12 dollar range Tesla is on its way up again after the split,  currently at almost $600. I'll take the ride up and get out when it tumbles down. Meanwhile Ford stock struggles along as always.

[rperez817]

21 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

Meanwhile Ford stock struggles along as always.

 

Yes sir coupe3w, that's a direct result of Ford's always struggling business operations. When Ford is "fit" again, you'll see some upward movement in F stock price.

[Gurgeh]

These statements can both be true: 1) Tesla will make it as a going, and ultimately profitable, business concern, and 2) Tesla and other BEV-only companies are in the midst of a historic stock market bubble.

-------------------

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-carmakers-stock-market-bubble-073017390.html

 

"The chief executive officer of Volkswagen AG, Herbert Diess, has predicted that within five to 10 years the world’s most valuable company will be a carmaker. Given how much investors have been bidding up the shares of Tesla Inc. and other electric vehicle stocks, it might happen sooner.

 

"Tesla’s market value soared past $540 billion this week — equivalent to 250 times its expected earnings this year — meaning it’s now the world’s 10th-most valuable listed business, according to Bloomberg data. A trio of New York-listed Chinese electric-vehicle groups — Nio Inc., XPeng Inc. and Li Auto Inc. — are worth a combined $154 billion. None of the three is profitable and together they delivered fewer than 30,000 vehicles during the most recent quarter, just over 1% of Volkswagen’s car sales volumes...

 

"The electric revolution is real and the shift away from combustion engines is accelerating. From a climate perspective, it’s great that investors are allocating capital like this. Still, valuations look mighty bubbly. The potential for disappointment is massive, particularly for the newest crop of EV makers that are yet to generate meaningful revenue...

 

"Competition is intense and while electric motors are simpler to build than combustion engines, developing a vehicle that’s safe, reliable and exciting is incredibly difficult. Incumbent giants such as Volkswagen and General Motors Co. are much better capitalized and they’ve far more experience managing supply chains and building brands. After a slow start, they’ve gone “all-in” on EVs. They won’t be shoved aside easily.

 

"Several factors have driven electric-vehicle stocks to these giddy heights. The U.S. Federal Reserve has stoked a speculative frenzy by cutting interest rates to zero, and bored millennials trading stocks at home on Robinhood have caught the EV bug. Electric-vehicle companies know how to market themselves to this crowd: Workhorse Group Inc. says its delivery vans can be paired with a drone, while XPeng emphasizes its autonomous-driving capabilities. ElectraMeccanica Vehicles Corp.’s “Solo” model has just three wheels.

 

"Then there’s 2020’s hottest financial fad: SPACs. Many have merged with electric-vehicle groups, and one peculiarity of these deals is that the companies are allowed to publish detailed multi-year financial forecasts, unlike in a regular initial public offering. These projections are often extremely bullish. Like Arrival, Fisker Inc. — an asset-light electric-auto business whose shares have soared — is yet to commence commercial sales. Even Musk is worried about SPACs, though he hasn’t said which ones...

 

"All of this may have short sellers licking their lips, but Tesla’s rise shows the danger of betting against the bubble. Nikola was the subject of a scathing report from Hindenburg Research that questioned its technology, and which forced the departure of its chairman. Yet its market capitalization now exceeds $11.5 billion.

 

"Diess may be right about carmakers becoming the most valuable companies. It’s inevitable, however, that some won't make it."

[Flying68]

SpaceX is a major bond holder in Tesla. Musk funnels SpaceX profits into Tesla this way. If Tesla ever defaults, it could bring down SpaceX as well.

[rperez817]

On 11/27/2020 at 10:27 AM, rperez817 said:

When Ford is "fit" again, you'll see some upward movement in F stock price.

 

This week's issue of Barron's says that F stock price may double if Jim Farley successfully finishes what Jim Hackett started to get Ford "fit" again. 

 

[coupe3w]

"may" and "if" sounds about right.

[rperez817]

On 11/30/2020 at 12:41 PM, coupe3w said:

"may" and "if" sounds about right.

 

Yes sir coupe3w. As Barron's said, Ford has a LOT of catching up to do. And that's just to survive in the short term, let alone compete with Tesla. Thankfully Ford chose the right person, Jim Farley, to attempt this feat. Farley like Hackett is a good businessman who recognizes Ford's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.

[Gurgeh]

• Michael Burry, whose bet against the housing market was made famous by "The Big Short," revealed in a late-Tuesday tweet that he's short Tesla.
• The hedge fund manager advised CEO Elon Musk to issue more shares while they sit at their "ridiculous" levels.
• "That's not dilution. You'd be cementing permanence and untold optionality," he added.
• Tesla dipped as much as 7.1% on Wednesday before paring losses and trading roughly 3% lower

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/big-short-investor-michael-burry-reveals-he-s-short-tesla-tells-elon-musk-to-issue-more-stock-at-its-ridiculous-price/ar-BB1bzA5V?li=BBnbfcN

[akirby]

Quote

The hashtag seems to reference a letter Musk sent to Tesla employees on Tuesday, in which he warned that the automaker's stock could "get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer" if profit margins didn't improve.

 

[jcartwright99]

I'm just about done talking about Tesla stock. I have said it many of times, there is no logic behind why it's this high. It's really like politics, it elicits an emotional response. People love Tesla so they want it to succeed. The numbers speak a different story. The S&P will regret allowing Tesla in but word on the street there was a lot of strong arming going on behind the scenes to make it happen. If the Biden administration changes the credit situation, which is being discussed, you bet that is going to destroy that stock price. No more pretending to be a profitable auto manufacture. Just my opinion. I firmly believe that the Mach- E, especially with tax credit, is going to take away from Tesla sales. Not a lot because of volume restrictions but if each manufacture can bring their A game with their "Mach E" then that will have a significant effect on Tesla.  I am not trying to change anyones mind here because it's pretty clear who are in the Tesla camp and those that aren't.

[coupe3w]

2 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

  I am not trying to change anyones mind here because it's pretty clear who are in the Tesla camp and those that aren't.

I'm not in any camp. I just like to make some money in the stock market. Just have to watch and know when to get in and out. Ford stock just doesn't do much it trades in such a small range it's not going to make you much money at least in the near term.

[jcartwright99]

15 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

I'm not in any camp. I just like to make some money in the stock market. Just have to watch and know when to get in and out. Ford stock just doesn't do much it trades in such a small range it's not going to make you much money at least in the near term.

 

I get that. I think virtually every Joe Blow who invests in the stock market just wants to make money. People make money all the time but people also lose money too. I am just putting up some friendly warning flags. 

 

For Tesla, the cracks in the foundation are there if you are inclined to look at them. Not giving a shit about anything in what they produce and their marketing glamour, and just looking at them as making a widget, the numbers don't work. I could care less about how good the technology is, if you can't sustain a business financially it will eventually fail. That has been proven time and time again. It doesn't matter how many people want it to or how good the tech is. Something has to give. In regards to Ford, its an old codger of a stock. Nothing too glamours about it. What made it nice was the dividend. They need to bring that back. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by jcartwright99

[Harley Lover]

1 hour ago, Gurgeh said:

• Michael Burry, whose bet against the housing market was made famous by "The Big Short," revealed in a late-Tuesday tweet that he's short Tesla.
• The hedge fund manager advised CEO Elon Musk to issue more shares while they sit at their "ridiculous" levels.
• "That's not dilution. You'd be cementing permanence and untold optionality," he added.
• Tesla dipped as much as 7.1% on Wednesday before paring losses and trading roughly 3% lower

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/big-short-investor-michael-burry-reveals-he-s-short-tesla-tells-elon-musk-to-issue-more-stock-at-its-ridiculous-price/ar-BB1bzA5V?li=BBnbfcN

 

LOL. There are so many on one side or the other regarding Tesla, it's a waste of time to promote a given viewpoint (with the idea that someone's opinion might be changed). 

 

For contrast, here's something from one day later than the above:

Tesla stock rose as much as 5% on Thursday after Goldman Sachs upgraded its stock to "buy" from "neutral" and boosted its price target to $780, currently the highest on Wall Street.

Goldman's strategists wrote in a December 2 report that "the shift toward battery electric vehicle adoption is accelerating and will occur faster than our prior view."

They noted battery prices are falling faster than expected, while governments around the world are passing regulations that could entirely phase out higher-emission vehicles within 10 to 20 years. That, in turn, is improving the sales outlook for electric vehicles.

LOL. Whatever.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/tesla-jumps-5-after-goldman-sachs-upgrades-the-automaker-s-stock-and-boosts-its-price-target-by-40/ar-BB1bAyCT?li=BBnbfcN&OCID=HPDHP

 

[Gurgeh]

2 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

LOL. There are so many on one side or the other regarding Tesla, it's a waste of time to promote a given viewpoint (with the idea that someone's opinion might be changed). 

 

For contrast, here's something from one day later than the above:

 

 

LOL. Whatever.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/tesla-jumps-5-after-goldman-sachs-upgrades-the-automaker-s-stock-and-boosts-its-price-target-by-40/ar-BB1bAyCT?li=BBnbfcN&OCID=HPDHP

 

The thing about Michael Burry is that he's bearish on the stock, not necessarily the company. They are different things. Notice that he recommends to Tesla that they recognize the ridiculousness of the Tesla stock bubble and raise tons of new capital by floating a bunch of new stock while it's up there in the stratosphere. The stock crashing down to a sustainable level at some point will have the result of pushing Musk's paper net worth a bit further down the list of top 10 richest people in the world, but the underlying company will progress along according to its own logic. I've noticed that Musk is starting to talk about a possible merger with an established automaker. If so, I sure hope it's an American company because I would hate to lose Tesla's technology to a foreign firm. But who knows if that is something real or just another of his out-of-the-blue quips.

[FordBuyer]

On 12/3/2020 at 11:25 AM, coupe3w said:

I'm not in any camp. I just like to make some money in the stock market. Just have to watch and know when to get in and out. Ford stock just doesn't do much it trades in such a small range it's not going to make you much money at least in the near term.

I've owned Ford stock for many many years and you don't make much money in the long term either unless you want to go back to the 90's and a few Mulally years. Ford is one of the most inconsistent companies out there. Only consistency is trucks. 

[rperez817]

54 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

Ford is one of the most inconsistent companies out there. Only consistency is trucks. 

 

Ford is consistently inconsistent.

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Ford is consistently inconsistent.

You got that right....kind of like rain every afternoon in FL during the summer. Everytime Ford stock shows a little upsurge, down it goes with some recall or class action suit or lower credit rating or stock analyst downgrade. 

[rperez817]

32 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

You got that right....kind of like rain every afternoon in FL during the summer. Everytime Ford stock shows a little upsurge, down it goes with some recall or class action suit or lower credit rating or stock analyst downgrade. 

 

With Jim Farley as CEO of Ford, working on completing Jim Hackett's plans to get Ford "fit" again, I think F stock price will finally advance consistently upward in the next 5 years. Of course, that assumes Ford can make it through the Covid-19 disruptions going on in the automotive industry without getting blasted.

Edited December 10, 2020 by rperez817

[ice-capades]

4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

With Jim Farley as CEO of Ford, working on completing Jim Hackett's plans to get Ford "fit" again, I think F stock price will finally advance consistently upward in the next 5 years. Of course, that assumes Ford can make it through the Covid-19 disruptions going on in the automotive industry without getting blasted.

 

Successful launches of the all-new F-150, Bronco Sport and Mustang Mach-E along with the positive media reports can only help too. 

[coupe3w]

$880 at close today.

[valve]

17 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

$880 at close today.

 

Lots of FOMO with this one.

 

[coupe3w]

1 hour ago, valve said:

 

Lots of FOMO with this one.

 

Could be, but as long as it keeps going in a positive direction I'm staying in. I have more than doubled my money since November. While Ford stock is still trading in the 8 to 9 dollar range about right where it's been since I got out.

[Gurgeh]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ive-pulled-out-all-the-stops-for-tesla-but-cant-find-the-upside-on-the-stock-11610117368

 

"...I admittedly have a natural value bias, but I want to try to rewire my circuits and envision an optimistic scenario that results in upside for Tesla’s share price.

 

"So I’ve gone out to 2035, a year where it should be obvious to even the bears that production of internal-combustion-engine vehicles will be niche, if not forbidden.  I see 135 million cars and light trucks produced worldwide that year and assume that 90% of them will be fully electric. Those arguing for an autonomous, ride-sharing future will have to revise this figure down.

 

"Toyota TM, +0.12% 7203, +1.55% was founded in 1937 and is the largest auto manufacturer in the world. Today, it has a 12% global market share. Volkswagen VOW3, -1.17% VWAPY, -1.40% (also founded in 1937) has 12% too. I generously assume that Tesla will sport a 20% share of all EVs produced around the world.

 

"In 2019, Tesla produced 365,000 units. In that same year VW and Toyota each produced nearly 11 million. In the scenario painted here, Tesla would produce over twice that amount (22 million vehicles) in 2035.

 

"And despite Tesla becoming a mass market producer, I model a virtue-signaling price premium of 12% over the industry, getting us to an average selling price of $50,000. This would result in Tesla revenues of nearly $1.2 trillion dollars.

Toyota today does 7% net margins.  VW does 5%.  For this bullish Tesla scenario, I will liberally assume 9% net margins. This means nearly $110 billion of net profit.

 

"Meanwhile despite the princely stock-based compensation plans and aggressive capital raising required to finance this kind of expansion, I am modelling only 2.5% annual growth in diluted shares. On the 1.75 billion in shares I expect in 2035 this all works out to over $60 in earnings per share.

 

"I will also assume that despite it already being huge, Mr. Market will still pay a P/E of 20 for this mass market automaker. That gets me to fair value in this historically unparalleled scenario of $1,230 per share. This is much higher than where it is today.  

 

"But this is in 2035.

 

"If I assume that between now and then, Mr. Market only expects to make just 10% a year on his Tesla investment that gets us to share price today of about $295.

 

"...Just 14 months ago, the outlook for Tesla (the company) was tremendous. The shares were trading at a split-adjusted $48 a share, reflecting Mr. Market’s confidence in Elon Musk.  The consensus investor had high optimism that Tesla would dominate the production of electronic vehicles in our clean future, and believed that other manufacturers potentially might end up standardizing on Tesla software architecture.

 

"And nothing about this story has deteriorated. This is what the bulls still believe. In other words, that bullish 2035 outlook hasn’t really improved much for Tesla since late 2019. But in those 14 months, Tesla shares have exploded by over 1500%. It’s been a 16-bagger in 14 months. They have doubled, doubled again, and doubled yet again. Oh, and then they doubled again for good measure.

 

"With that, I would strongly encourage holders to consider this framework above. Even if a lot of things go very right, it is extremely difficult to believe that the stock’s future will look like its recent past. In my view, a great many things have to go perfectly well – many of them outside of Tesla’s control – for this not to end horribly."

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Gurgeh