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coupe3w

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On 1/23/2020 at 5:11 PM, rperez817 said:

In the European Union, there have calls by environment ministers to ban the sale of new ICE powered vehicles by 2040.

 

The U.K., no longer part of EU, just announced that sale of new gasoline/petrol and diesel powered cars including hybrids will be banned in that country by 2035, maybe even earlier. Only BEV and FCEV allowed. https://www.engadget.com/2020/02/04/uk-ban-petrol-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035/

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14 hours ago, coupe3w said:

Tesla only knows electric cars and doesn't have a unionized workforce. The learning curve is behind them. Ford and GM have a learning curve a head of them.

 

Tesla has a big learning curve when it comes to mass production, keeping old vehicles fresh while developing new ones and they don't have a healthy ICE business to help subsidize the BEV R&D.   Also nationwide service.

 

And Ford has Rivian to help them with the BEV specific stuff, although it sounds like they've figured out most of it on their own.   I don't understand why people think BEVs are magic.   A Ford hybrid is far more complicated.

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Ford’s problem is that they don’t really want to be in the EV business; they want Tesla to fail so they can go back to doing the same old thing. To them, batteries are parts: pick a supplier and order them. If the EVs Ford will start making start selling, they will run out of batteries (globally there are only 4 battery manufacturers). So far, IMO,  it’s all been half-hearted efforts. Just suppose Tesla is correct about the demand for an electric pick up or even half right, Ford is ill-prepared for this scenario. 

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3 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

So far, IMO,  it’s all been half-hearted efforts. Just suppose Tesla is correct about the demand for an electric pick up or even half right, Ford is ill-prepared for this scenario. 

 

You are correct, Ford's past BEV efforts have been lame. But I think there will be change in direction with BEV F-Series and other BEV pickup trucks. The first automaker to come out with a truly capable, mass produced BEV pickup truck will have it made. Ford isn't going to be half-hearted with these efforts, they know the company's survival depends on getting it right.

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On 2/7/2020 at 5:55 PM, akirby said:

Ford has been buying batteries since 2005.  This is not new territory.

It is clear that Ford will be buying their batteries, not making them, but what is not clear is who is assembling the battery packs. There are only 4 battery companies in the world not counting Tesla/BYD and both MB and BMW have had to postpone releases because of the battery supply. I cannot imagine Ford would be in better shape than either one of those two companies with regard to battery or battery pack supply. Ford has only committed to building 50K cars during the first year, which, IMO, there will be delivery delays and postponements due to battery supply. During the same year, Tesla will probably be inching up on the 500K sales number. Tesla says they are constrained by battery supply and they are rapidly expanding their battery manufacturing capacity. Very hard to see Ford being anything except a bit player in the BEV market. VW, who owns EA (Ford's charging network) and is the second-largest auto company in the world has gone all-in for BEVs, battery manufacture and charging and has committed that 20-25% of their total sales by 2025 will be BEVs and that is not counting BYD (the largest BEV company in the world) who is coming to America.

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On 2/7/2020 at 8:56 PM, rperez817 said:

 

You are correct, Ford's past BEV efforts have been lame. But I think there will be change in direction with BEV F-Series and other BEV pickup trucks. The first automaker to come out with a truly capable, mass produced BEV pickup truck will have it made. Ford isn't going to be half-hearted with these efforts, they know the company's survival depends on getting it right.

Today Tesla has a 3 year lead on battery cost so Ford will have to sell its BEVs at a loss while losing sales in the ICE market. Tesla has the best battery technology, the best AI technology (their own chip), is the only company that can upgrade performance OTA and has the most miles driven data which means they will win in the autonomous space. Ford's lack of commitment to BEVs is so obvious that they cannot sell it to investors.

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1 minute ago, akirby said:

You forgot that Ford is partnering with Rivian and VW.

VW owns EA which is the limit of the partnership. Rivian, like the Mach E, will be buying batteries, having someone make battery packs and probably never be able to make more than 50K trucks a year. Ford is just not that committed to BEVs. Find me an analyst that disputes that fact.

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22 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Ford is just not that committed to BEVs. Find me an analyst that disputes that fact.

 

No dispute in terms of what Ford is doing currently with BEV. Mustang Mach-E is a baby step in the right direction though. The real game changer as I mentioned earlier will be BEV F-Series. If Ford is first to market with a truly capable BEV pickup truck, we'll know that they have joined the ongoing automotive industry rEVolution as a serious player. I think Ford can pull it off. 

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23 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Rivian, like the Mach E, will be buying batteries, having someone make battery packs and probably never be able to make more than 50K trucks a year. Ford is just not that committed to BEVs. Find me an analyst that disputes that fact.

 

That's because Ford is committed to making a profit and not putting all their eggs in one basket.  We haven't yet seen the true market demand for BEVs that can be made profitably because Tesla is still not proven to be viable long term.   They've been subsidizing their business with new investment capital, future deposits and gov't credits none of which are sustainable.

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44 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

VW owns EA which is the limit of the partnership. Rivian, like the Mach E, will be buying batteries, having someone make battery packs and probably never be able to make more than 50K trucks a year. Ford is just not that committed to BEVs. Find me an analyst that disputes that fact.


Find one that supports your misguided opinion 

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1 hour ago, mlhm5 said:

Today Tesla has a 3 year lead on battery cost so Ford will have to sell its BEVs at a loss while losing sales in the ICE market. Tesla has the best battery technology, the best AI technology (their own chip), is the only company that can upgrade performance OTA and has the most miles driven data which means they will win in the autonomous space. Ford's lack of commitment to BEVs is so obvious that they cannot sell it to investors.

 

So because Tesla has a "3 year lead" that automatically means Ford will sell its BEVs at a loss?

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

No dispute in terms of what Ford is doing currently with BEV. Mustang Mach-E is a baby step in the right direction though. The real game changer as I mentioned earlier will be BEV F-Series. If Ford is first to market with a truly capable BEV pickup truck, we'll know that they have joined the ongoing automotive industry rEVolution as a serious player. I think Ford can pull it off. 

Tesla has stated that they could not meet the demand for the Cybertruck if they were in manufacturing today because of their inability to supply batteries and they are partnered big time with Panasonic, build and assemble batteries and battery packs in a dedicated and expanding Gigafactory. Explain how a company that is competing with other companies to buy batteries and have them made into battery packs from third parties can supply enough batteries/battery packs to meet an ever-increasing acceptance (Tesla will sell ~500K BEVs this year, BYD 400K+.) of BEVs, whether car, SUV or truck. Find me an analyst that thinks Ford really has a chance in the BEV market.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Whatever you say Sparky.

Ford is slowly dipping its toe into the BEV market while the second-largest auto company in the world, VW, has gone all-in. IME, the acceptance of BEVs will dramatically increase over the next year and by 2025 the market will have determined winners and losers. Not real confident that F will be one of the winners if they move as slowly over the next 5 years as they did in the past 5 years.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Whatever you say Sparky.

Right now analysts are changing their forecast with regularity on how rapidly the public will accept BEVs. The largest market will be Europe by 2025 (6.3MM vehicles) and the only BEV car F has planned for Europe is the Mach-E and they are only committed to making 50K in 2021. What analyst would recommend F stock knowing this?

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10 minutes ago, akirby said:

Mach-E, BEV F150 and Transit, Rivian platform based Lincoln flagship and 2 midsized BEVs is hardly “dipping their toe”.

 

 

The 50K commitment for 2021 is the only number I have seen from Ford and that is for the Mach-E. Until F releases any other information on the other vehicles you mentioned we do not know anything about numbers, unless you want to fill us in. I would also mention that like Apple, Tesla has developed its own AI chip because Nvidia and others were not moving fast enough. Now it will take 3 years for BEV manufacturers to catch up with where Tesla is today in both AI and battery cost and if F wants to be competitive they will have to sell their BEVs at a loss while losing market share in ICE vehicles. 

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4 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Right now analysts are changing their forecast with regularity on how rapidly the public will accept BEVs. The largest market will be Europe by 2025 (6.3MM vehicles) and the only BEV car F has planned for Europe is the Mach-E and they are only committed to making 50K in 2021. What analyst would recommend F stock knowing this?

Ahh, not quite.  You're forgetting the team up with VW.  Or conveniently neglected to mention it.

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9 minutes ago, 92merc said:

Ahh, not quite.  You're forgetting the team up with VW.  Or conveniently neglected to mention it.

Ford is teamed with VW for the fast-charging network in the USA. AFAIK that is the only relationship. VW formed EA as a result of the court decision in "dieselgate" and was ordered to invest $2B in electric vehicle infrastructure in the US.

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5 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Ford is teamed with VW for the fast-charging network in the USA. AFAIK that is the only relationship. VW formed EA as a result of the court decision in "dieselgate" and was ordered to invest $2B in electric vehicle infrastructure in the US.

 

Instead of continuing to spout half truths, go do some research. As has already been stated, it's more than just EA.

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