mlhm5 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 IMO, Ford’s problem is that they like GM don’t really want to be in the EV business; they want Tesla to fail so they can go back to doing the same old thing. To them, batteries are parts: pick a supplier and order them. If the EVs they are making start selling, they will have run out of batteries. So far, it’s all been half-hearted efforts. With VW going all in changes the game. It isn't just Tesla any longer who is all in, but the second-largest car company in the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/8/2020 at 2:36 AM, mlhm5 said: IMO, Ford’s problem is that they like GM don’t really want to be in the EV business GM is taking the EV business seriously now. They are all in with BEV, no more hybrids or PHEV. The company's president Mark Reuss said a couple weeks ago "The turning point is now because we have to plan for an electric portfolio to eventually become the standard." https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126910_gm-s-electric-vehicle-future-president-mark-reuss-offers-some-hints Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Because GM has such a great track record.... One and done - Volt, Bolt, ELR, mild hybrid vehicles. Ford has had great success with hybrid cars and there is no reason to think hybrid utilities won't be a big business for the next decade at least. There is a huge percentage of the population that can't or won't own a BEV and a HEV or PHEV is a perfect solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, akirby said: Because GM has such a great track record.... One and done - Volt, Bolt, ELR, mild hybrid vehicles. Not to mention the EV1, which inspired this movie. Anyway, GM finally seems to be heading in the right direction with their EV strategy. The future of the automotive industry is 100% electric. GM can't afford to mess up this time or they won't survive. Same goes for Ford. The clock is ticking... Edited February 10, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, rperez817 said: The future of the automotive industry is 100% electric. GM can't afford to mess up this time or they won't survive. Same goes for Ford. The clock is ticking... Unless you have to tow or go long distances or other things that HD trucks do...You'll be lucky to have 50% penetration of the market in the next 30 years. IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 It's important but we're decades away from 100% BEVs. I can see maybe 30-40% within a decade. The infrastructure won't support it. Where do you get enough batteries to go from 200K BEVs/yr to 16 million not to mention the public charging infrastructure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordowner Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 (edited) A decade, 30 - 40 %, seems like a good projection. 30 years? I have to think it will easily be easily above 80%. Just look at how much battery technology has advanced in the past 30 years. I am also assuming charging infrastructure will improve. Personally I'd love to never have to stop at a gas station again. And you have to think they will come up with portable chargers/batteries for your car like people have for their Cell Phones. Edited February 10, 2020 by Fordowner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Fordowner said: And you have to think they will come up with portable chargers/batteries for your car like people have for their Cell Phones. I think this is going to be the key to BEVs really taking hold in the market. A battery pack you can 'rent', throw in the trunk, charge your battery while you drive (or just give you power while you drive), and then you trade it in for another at the next 'gas station' while that one gets charged (think a propane tank exchange). The completely eliminates range anxiety and allows the quick fill-up everyone is used to today. The drawback, and huge cost, is getting that infrastructure in place with all of those battery packs, and coming up with an industry standard to use for that.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, akirby said: It's important but we're decades away from 100% BEVs. I can see maybe 30-40% within a decade. The infrastructure won't support it. Where do you get enough batteries to go from 200K BEVs/yr to 16 million not to mention the public charging infrastructure. That kind of thinking got Ford to where it is today with BEVs. 88% charge at home, Tesla and EA are committed to a USA supercharging network, VW will be making their own batteries, Tesla is #1 in battery technology/manufacture and 3 years ahead of anyone in battery cost. If you are not vertically integrated in the BEV business, you will only be a bit player. BYD is coming to America and they make their own batteries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: If you are not vertically integrated in the BEV business, you will only be a bit player. Yes sir. GM recognized that, and formed a JV with LG Chem in December 2019 to manufacture EV battery cells. Their new battery manufacturing plant in Lordstown, Ohio represents a $2.3 billion investment. https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2019/dec/1205-lgchem.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 58 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir. GM recognized that, and formed a JV with LG Chem in December 2019 to manufacture EV battery cells. Their new battery manufacturing plant in Lordstown, Ohio represents a $2.3 billion investment. https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2019/dec/1205-lgchem.html LG is one of only 4 battery companies in the world not counting Tesla and BYD. So every other auto manufacturer besides VW, Tesla and BYD will have to buy batteries from these 4 companies which could cause bottlenecks in product sales. Secondly, the batteries have to be made into packs, and since Tesla bought Grohmann a top company that designs efficient ways to manufacture battery packs, this area could be problematic for other auto manufacturers, in fact, MB has already said it will be. Tesla is expanding battery production in a Gigafactory devoted to manufacturing batteries and assembling battery packs with technology which give them at least a 3+ year head start in battery design and assembly. In 2024 the demand for BEVs will outstrip the ability of Ford, GM, and other companies to supply the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: LG is one of only 4 battery companies in the world not counting Tesla and BYD. So every other auto manufacturer besides VW, Tesla and BYD will have to buy batteries from these 4 companies which could cause bottlenecks in product sales. Secondly, the batteries have to be made into packs, and since Tesla bought Grohmann a top company that designs efficient ways to manufacture battery packs, this area could be problematic for other auto manufacturers, in fact, MB has already said it will be. Tesla is expanding battery production in a Gigafactory devoted to manufacturing batteries and assembling battery packs with technology which give them at least a 3+ year head start in battery design and assembly. In 2024 the demand for BEVs will outstrip the ability of Ford, GM, and other companies to supply the market. Unless someone buys Tesla.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Man mlhm5 is like herpes-just when you think you don't have it any more it, flares back up! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Man mlhm5 is like herpes-just when you think you don't have it any more it, flares back up! Im starting to think he works for Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Man mlhm5 is like herpes-just when you think you don't have it any more it, flares back up! BEV powered herpes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, twintornados said: Unless someone buys Tesla.... LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Man mlhm5 is like herpes-just when you think you don't have it any more it, flares back up! Here is the forecast for BEVs - these sales will come at the expense of ICE vehicles. Ford is ill-prepared for this future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 That’s 1/16 of the US market by 2025. 1 million EVs, 15 million ICE. I’d say Ford is in a great position to do both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomcat68 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: LOL! Apple's market cap... https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/market_cap 1.41 Trillion! If Apple becomes serious about cars again, they can buy Tesla with the change and lint in their pocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, atomcat68 said: Apple's market cap... https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/market_cap 1.41 Trillion! If Apple becomes serious about cars again, they can buy Tesla with the change and lint in their pocket. LOL! they are not interested at all. They could have bought Tesla years ago and did not. Tim Cook is not in the auto business and does not want to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, akirby said: That’s 1/16 of the US market by 2025. 1 million EVs, 15 million ICE. I’d say Ford is in a great position to do both. Explain how you go from 50K BEVs in 2021 to being competitive in a 1MM car market in 2025 when you are outsourcing the key BEV items (batteries/battery packs, AI to include autonomous, charging). Vertical integration is the winning strategy and VW is serious about BEVs, Ford is making a half-hearted effort and the analysts are not buying Ford's BEV line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 59 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Im starting to think he works for Tesla "It is deja-vu all over again" - YB - reminds me of Ford's attitude when the first Hondas started selling in the USA in the early 1970s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomcat68 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: LOL! they are not interested at all. They could have bought Tesla years ago and did not. Tim Cook is not in the auto business and does not want to be. https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/apple-tried-to-buy-tesla-it-all-fell-apart-for-a-truly-stunning-reason-according-to-a-new-report.html The would have if they could get rid of Elon Musk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willwll313wll Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Batteries for these vehicles need to be recyclable too, if they not already. Go all in in creating a truly green future for the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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