630land Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This new year, 2020 was supposed to be the "magic time" when 'driverless-electric cars' were going to be "widely for sale". Now, the magic will occur in 10 years. Reminds me of when 1985 was going to be the era of "$5-10 gallon gas, and all small FWD cars" per 1980 Car & Driver articles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, 630land said: This new year, 2020 was supposed to be the "magic time" when 'driverless-electric cars' were going to be "widely for sale". Now, the magic will occur in 10 years. Reminds me of when 1985 was going to be the era of "$5-10 gallon gas, and all small FWD cars" per 1980 Car & Driver articles. And then again in the 2000s when F Series sales dropped to a fraction of today's sales, Ford was calling it permanent die back and saying that compact cars were the future, two years later everything changed and now they cling to F Series like a drowning man. All of Ford's new strategies are low volume high profit per unit vehicles, if there's ever a severe down turn, all that goes in the trash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 54 minutes ago, jpd80 said: And then again in the 2000s when F Series sales dropped to a fraction of today's sales, Ford was calling it permanent die back and saying that compact cars were the future, two years later everything changed and now they cling to F Series like a drowning man. Well to be fair everyone back then thought gas prices were going to stay at $4 plus. It wasn't just Ford. 55 minutes ago, jpd80 said: All of Ford's new strategies are low volume high profit per unit vehicles, if there's ever a severe down turn, all that goes in the trash. You know better than that. Escape, Edge, Explorer and hopefully Bronco and Baby Bronco are high volume. And they will all have hybrid or phev options at some point in case gas prices go back up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 $8.06...vehicles are an extension of ones ego...ford has nothing outside of mustang and f series (TBD on bronc)..interiors are bland, exteriors boring and buyers are shopping elsewhere...nothing outside those 2 mentioned above are fun to drive which should be a core requirement inside ford for future design.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordowner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The recent releases about the Bronco and how it was built for off roading makes me wonder if it is a high volume vehicle. It certainly sounds like it will be expensive. Then again the F150 is insanely high volume and its not cheap or very practical for the vast majority of car owners. I do hope the Baby Bronco is a good alternative to the Escape or Ecosport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Estimate I've seen was 200K Broncos per year for both Bronco and Bronco Sport. They may have some limited edition special models on the higher end but I think the basic Bronco will start just above Ranger XLT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, akirby said: Estimate I've seen was 200K Broncos per year for both Bronco and Bronco Sport. They may have some limited edition special models on the higher end but I think the basic Bronco will start just above Ranger XLT. That was 200k for each or 200k for both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Fo 30 minutes ago, rmc523 said: That was 200k for each or 200k for both? rmc, this is from a recent Motley Fool article: "Ford has made it clear that these aren't going to be low-volume, niche products. Dealers were told that Ford expects sales of the "Bronco family," including both the Bronco and the Bronco Sport, to exceed 200,000 units a year right away, starting in 2021. That's an aggressive number, but it's not outrageous. Consider that in 2019, Fiat Chrysler sold 228,000 Wranglers, another 40,000 examples of the closely related Gladiator pickup, and almost 144,000 Compasses 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordowner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Gurgeh said: Fo rmc, this is from a recent Motley Fool article: "Ford has made it clear that these aren't going to be low-volume, niche products. Dealers were told that Ford expects sales of the "Bronco family," including both the Bronco and the Bronco Sport, to exceed 200,000 units a year right away, starting in 2021. That's an aggressive number, but it's not outrageous. Consider that in 2019, Fiat Chrysler sold 228,000 Wranglers, another 40,000 examples of the closely related Gladiator pickup, and almost 144,000 Compasses Which leads to the question of which will sell more? The Body on Frame Bronco or the Unibody Bronco Sport? I was thinking the small Bronco will sell a good amount more since it is more practical - i.e. a more handsome escape. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordowner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) Duplicate post by mistake. Edited February 19, 2020 by Fordowner Somehow I posted the same post twice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Fordowner said: Which leads to the question of which will sell more? The Body on Frame Bronco or the Unibody Bronco Sport? I was thinking the small Bronco will sell a good amount more since it is more practical - i.e. a more handsome escape. You would think it would than more than likely the Sport as it is more accessible price-wise as well as being a bit more mainstream to the auto-buying public. But looking at the Wrangler numbers against the Compass.....who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, Anthony said: You would think it would than more than likely the Sport as it is more accessible price-wise as well as being a bit more mainstream to the auto-buying public. But looking at the Wrangler numbers against the Compass.....who knows? The Bronco Sport would be slotted closer in price and size to a Cherokee though.... The Compass is inbetweener if Ford had it between the Escape and Ecosport in size/price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 hours ago, 630land said: This new year, 2020 was supposed to be the "magic time" when 'driverless-electric cars' were going to be "widely for sale". Now, the magic will occur in 10 years. I can't say nobody said it, but I never heard that. What I remember was plans for SAE level 4 or 5 cars to hit the roads this year (notably, at the Olympics in Japan), but not necessarily for sale. Mind you, I still think the predictions of widely-available autonomous passenger cars by 2030 are wildly optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, SoonerLS said: Mind you, I still think the predictions of widely-available autonomous passenger cars by 2030 are wildly optimistic. Or electrified vehicles. I think at that point will start fully going to BEVs, but they won't make up 50% of the market till later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 7 hours ago, akirby said: Well to be fair everyone back then thought gas prices were going to stay at $4 plus. It wasn't just Ford. You know better than that. Escape, Edge, Explorer and hopefully Bronco and Baby Bronco are high volume. And they will all have hybrid or phev options at some point in case gas prices go back up. Most of the vehicles you mentioned are new versions of existing vehicles, so they maintain the status quo. Bronco and Bronco Sport combined are expected to pull 200k sales in 2021 but we don’t know if there will be any pull down of Escape’s sales to achieve that. A few years back, LAP on three shifts was putting out over 300k of Escape in a year but I digress... What I’m talking about is the new BEVs, all of them are aimed at the +$50k buyer which is fine until we realise that means fewer buyers the higher the price goes. Yes, still be positive about the raft of new BEVs coming but know that they have a commensurate premium which will limit sales and ROI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 How do you know they’re all over $50K? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, akirby said: How do you know they’re all over $50K? Ford is not in the business of selling $40K electric vehicles, not a compact car or utility in sight. Mustang Mach E Ford Mid Size crossover & Lincoln version Rivian based Lincoln Utility F150 BEV. Edited February 19, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The problem is battery prices - they’ll come down over time. And Mach E is $37k after tax credits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, akirby said: The problem is battery prices - they’ll come down over time. And Mach E is $37k after tax credits. ...and I expect the mid-sized crossover BEV Ford (but not its Lincoln cousin) to come out in a couple of years will likely start in the same range as the MME. The big Rivian skateboard Lincoln to be unveiled next year will be way expensive, but then it looks slated to be a new flagship vehicle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, akirby said: The problem is battery prices - they’ll come down over time. And Mach E is $37k after tax credits. The interesting question is what are manufactures going to do after the tax credit goes away? I wonder if they will drop prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 hours ago, Gurgeh said: Fo rmc, this is from a recent Motley Fool article: "Ford has made it clear that these aren't going to be low-volume, niche products. Dealers were told that Ford expects sales of the "Bronco family," including both the Bronco and the Bronco Sport, to exceed 200,000 units a year right away, starting in 2021. That's an aggressive number, but it's not outrageous. Consider that in 2019, Fiat Chrysler sold 228,000 Wranglers, another 40,000 examples of the closely related Gladiator pickup, and almost 144,000 Compasses Right, I saw that quote. Which to me reads as 200k for both in 2021. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 hours ago, silvrsvt said: The interesting question is what are manufactures going to do after the tax credit goes away? I wonder if they will drop prices? Hard to say. Probably depends on ho much competition exists at that time and how they’re selling. Tesla just lost most if not all of their credits so it will be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, akirby said: Hard to say. Probably depends on ho much competition exists at that time and how they’re selling. Tesla just lost most if not all of their credits so it will be interesting. And when does the tax credit become a political football? I like my ICE! I should pay for some guy to have a "feel good" moment while he drives his electric? And then I pay for his battery disposal? Or the need to upgrade the electric distribution system in my small town because it can no longer handle the load. Once again, no free lunches. But I know, I'm old? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) At least in Southern California, a lot of effort is going into the infrastructure to support BEV's as we speak. I am sure the BEV's will become a very significant percentage of car sales within the next 10 years, incentives notwithstanding. It will be similar to when diesel replaced steam in railroading. Autonomous vehicles? Don't hold your breath....... Edited February 19, 2020 by 7Mary3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said: And when does the tax credit become a political football? I like my ICE! I should pay for some guy to have a "feel good" moment while he drives his electric? And then I pay for his battery disposal? Or the need to upgrade the electric distribution system in my small town because it can no longer handle the load. Once again, no free lunches. But I know, I'm old? I don’t like the subsidies either. But if they’re making them available then Ford should get their fair share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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