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2005Explorer

Considering buying some Ford Stock

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Ha, of course now that I finally got some, they suspend the dividend.

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10 minutes ago, probowler said:

get through this crisis as healthy as possible and position the company for a strong rebound.

 

Jim Hackett has his work cut out for him! It's been tough enough for him trying to get Ford fit again in the past couple years. With this "crisis", Hackett will have to put forth almost superhuman effort to save the company and make it healthy for the years to come.

Edited by rperez817

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Interesting and very informative Daniel Howes column in yesterday's Detroit News.  To quote:

 

"The good news when we could use some: General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV have a lot more financial heft “in the tank,” says a leading Wall Street analyst, than they did when the global financial meltdown pushed GM and the former Chrysler Group LLC into federally induced bankruptcy 11 years ago."

 

“We believe the” automakers’ “balance sheets are categorically in a strong position to absorb several months of a near shut-down… giving the market enough time to address other actions to either stimulate demand or to ensure openness of key capital markets,” Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc.'s Adam Jonas wrote in a note to investors Tuesday.

Detroit’s automakers “have stated they each can remain profitable” in a U.S. market running between 10 million and 11 million units a year — far below the annual run rates of roughly 17 million cars, trucks and SUVs in recent years. “Now may be the time where they prove it.”

 

Under a "draconian" worst-case envisioning a 90% decline in revenue over three months, Morgan Stanley projects GM and Ford would each burn $4 billion per month in their bleak scenario. And the firm calculates that GM and Ford would have five months and six months, respectively, of gross cash to navigate a massive decline in business"

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2020/03/17/automakers-wield-financial-heft-weather-storm/5072650002/

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Well crap.   Looks like I'm in for a long ride or cut my losses and sell now.

 

I'm down $164 from buying just 100 shares last week.  Ouchie.

 

877327162_ScreenShot2020-03-19at1_38_38PM.png.9741f739d30c2bba56948a1de7909f2e.png

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10 minutes ago, Anthony said:

Well crap.   Looks like I'm in for a long ride or cut my losses and sell now.

 

I'm down $164 from buying just 100 shares last week.  Ouchie.

 

 

Don't sell now.  This current crisis won't last forever.  The upside (for almost any stock) is considerable.  Right now we're probably near rock bottom.  Ford, wisely, just suspended their dividend and borrowed a more money.  All necessary and prudent measures.  

 

Back in 2008 (Great Recession) I bought a mess of Ford shares when it was at about $2.50.  Sold it when it hit $5.00 and doubled my money.  

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20 minutes ago, Anthony said:

Well crap.   Looks like I'm in for a long ride or cut my losses and sell now.

 

I'm down $164 from buying just 100 shares last week.  Ouchie.

 

877327162_ScreenShot2020-03-19at1_38_38PM.png.9741f739d30c2bba56948a1de7909f2e.png


I'm down 20k Brother, Avg purchase price around $10.70. 

I would ride it out; The market and Ford will recover.

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4 minutes ago, probowler said:


I'm down 20k Brother, Avg purchase price around $10.70. 

I would ride it out; The market and Ford will recover.

 

Me too,,,, thankfully my average is down around $8.40

 

HRG

F holding 03192020.JPG

Edited by HotRunrGuy

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You don't lose anything unless you sell.   Hold on to it - it will rebound pretty quickly and I'm sure the dividend will be restored.

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Once this crisis passes, the American consumer will be buying like nuts.  It looks like all adults will be getting a sizable check from the government ($1,000/person?).  The Fed has cut interest rates to almost zero.  The economy should quickly respond.

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8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Ford just killed its dividend and is tapping into reserve lines of credit for 15 Billion

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3553350-ford-suspends-dividend-raises-cash-to-ride-out-outbreak

 

No issue...banks will loan...what your long term feels on this for ford?

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I have been telling people for OVER A YEAR that the Ford dividend was unsustainable.

 

If you bought below $7-$8, you will make your money back, bought it might take a couple of years.

 

It is going to be interesting to see how Ford deals with some long term negative cash flow.  I expect work on the Michigan Depot train station will slow to a halt over the next 3 months.  Same with rebuilding the Research and Engineering Center.  Thos two multi-year project were likely going to cost the company close to $2B !!  They may keep skeleton crews on board to work on infrastructure.

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29 minutes ago, theoldwizard said:

I have been telling people for OVER A YEAR that the Ford dividend was unsustainable.

 

Thank you theoldwizard sir. Buying a poorly performing stock like F for the dividend is foolish. Except maybe for very sophisticated investors able to use hedging/short strategies and limit their losses. 

Edited by rperez817

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37 minutes ago, theoldwizard said:

I have been telling people for OVER A YEAR that the Ford dividend was unsustainable.

 

If you bought below $7-$8, you will make your money back, bought it might take a couple of years.

 

It is going to be interesting to see how Ford deals with some long term negative cash flow.  I expect work on the Michigan Depot train station will slow to a halt over the next 3 months.  Same with rebuilding the Research and Engineering Center.  Thos two multi-year project were likely going to cost the company close to $2B !!  They may keep skeleton crews on board to work on infrastructure.

 

Can you really claim you told us so when the cut was precipitated by an Act of God?

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5 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Thank you theoldwizard sir. Buying a poorly performing stock like F for the dividend is foolish. Except maybe for very sophisticated investors able to use hedging/short strategies and limit their losses. 

 

I don't think anyone here should come here for stock market advice. This is merely a sounding board.  Nobody is shorting Ford,  if you did you'd be expecting them to go bankrupt. I don't hear anyone thinking that. 

 

My opinion, we are in a recession even though most won't say it, yet. Most stocks are going to be poorly performing. It's only going to get worse before it gets better. We really haven't even started to feel the effects of COVID 19 yet. Things will start to get really ugly in April.  Companies are going to start laying of lots of folks, once the good will effect wears off and these companies start looking at bottom line. I am not trying to be doom and gloom but this is just what I am hearing from people (economist and risk management) smarter than me that I talk to in my arena

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19 hours ago, probowler said:

 

Can you really claim you told us so when the cut was precipitated by an Act of God?

 

Yes, because the cash burn rated of TWO major construction projects while trying to engineer a whole fleet of hybrid and electric vehicles is just not sustainable.

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as low as $3.96 today.  At least all of you who had limit orders in at $4-even should be good.

 

HRG

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Equity market has not yet bottomed....commodities are showing a bottom...this week i may buy sans F stock

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18 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

S&P downgraded Ford's credit rating to junk (BB+) on March 25. Ford also received a downgrade from Moody's to Ba2. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3555250-ford-credit-rating-cut-to-junk-s-and-p-moodys-also-warns

So From my understanding, this rating only applies to new, future debt taken after the downgrade? And that it will raise the interest cost on that new debt, but not affect current interest on debt.

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1 hour ago, probowler said:

So From my understanding, this rating only applies to new, future debt taken after the downgrade? And that it will raise the interest cost on that new debt, but not affect current interest on debt.

 

That's what I understand.  Once they are locked in, the rate doesn't change, kinda like a fixed-rate mortgage.

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15 hours ago, snooter said:

Be cognizant of "dead cat bounce" going forward 

 

I prefer Schrodinger's cat.

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Was listening to Bloomberg business radio for a bit today.

 

Markets this week are likely to be up 20% (still a bit of trading to go today). That's the biggest weekly rise in 8 years. And yet, markets remain more than 25% below their peak of just a month ago. That's the biggest monthly drop in a long time (I forget how many years they said).

 

So, Bloomberg reporters provided this sage and jargon-free analysis: "we aren't out of the woods yet". This is may be a dead-cat bounce, the beginning of a sharp V-shaped recovery, the early stages of the south end of a U-shaped market, or the false recovery of what will be a long L-shaped down market. Be careful about trying to catch a falling knife, they warned, but no matter what you do don't miss market opportunities like this week!

 

Huh.

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It will be interesting to see how Thursdays unemployment numbers affect the economy.

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