mlhm5 Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said: And yet not one model from Tesla ranks in the top 15 of highest US vehicles manufactured in the USA (monroney sticker - American made). I wonder if that will be the case in 2025? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: I wonder if that will be the case in 2025? Tesla is getting some weight of numbers and five years from now, they may be unstoppable. I think Musk is over the tight spot or will be when Tesla has three global plants. Edited February 25, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 12 hours ago, mlhm5 said: By the time Ford manufactures its 50,000th Mustang Mach E, Tesla will have opened two more Gigafactories. One in Texas and one in Germany, both capable of manufacturing hundreds of thousands of cars a year. Tesla is building the Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Model S in the USA. Ford is building the Mustang Mach E in a 56-year-old plant in Mexico which sure takes the American out of American made. Building more factories does NOT equal having manufacturing and supply chain expertise on par with the competition. My original statement still stands. They have a great design, but they still haven't figured out how to produce it consistently in quantity with a level of quality befitting the price tag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 11 hours ago, mlhm5 said: I wonder if that will be the case in 2025? I wonder if you've taken your medications in 2020? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, J-150 said: Building more factories does NOT equal having manufacturing and supply chain expertise on par with the competition. My original statement still stands. They have a great design, but they still haven't figured out how to produce it consistently in quantity with a level of quality befitting the price tag. Exactly. What works in low volume in one factory for one volume vehicle won’t work as you scale up production volume. Supply chain and vehicle delivery become exponentially harder and gets extremely expensive to do it all yourself with vertical integration. A lot of the things the OEMs do isn’t because they’re antiquated - it’s because they have over a hundred years of mass manufacturing experience. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HotRunrGuy Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 13 hours ago, blwnsmoke said: And yet not one model from Tesla ranks in the top 15 of highest US vehicles manufactured in the USA (monroney sticker - American made). Tesla declined to furnish enough information to be included in the 2019 American-Made Index. You might have missed that in the complete report. https://www.cars.com/articles/cars-coms-2019-american-made-index-whats-the-most-american-car-404547/ HRG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, akirby said: Exactly. What works in low volume in one factory for one volume vehicle won’t work as you scale up production volume. Supply chain and vehicle delivery become exponentially harder and gets extremely expensive to do it all yourself with vertical integration. A lot of the things the OEMs do isn’t because they’re antiquated - it’s because they have over a hundred years of mass manufacturing experience. The global unit sales market for EVs in 2030 is estimated to be at least 20 million vehicles per year. By the end of 2021, Tesla will have 5 gigafactories open expressly for the manufacture of EVs and batteries. Going forward from today, IMO, what is best for Ford in the EV market is not what is best for their dealerships and it is obvious. By 2030 EVs not only will have made gas cars partially obsolete but also dealer sales, and service to a large extent. Ford knows this and is probably wrestling with this issue as well as write-offs of their existing ICE car manufacturing equipment while at the same time incurring huge investment costs required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market EVs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, HotRunrGuy said: Tesla declined to furnish enough information to be included in the 2019 American-Made Index. You might have missed that in the complete report. https://www.cars.com/articles/cars-coms-2019-american-made-index-whats-the-most-american-car-404547/ HRG So again, Tesla doesnt even rank in the top 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 41 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: Going forward from today, IMO, what is best for Ford in the EV market is not what is best for their dealerships and it is obvious. By 2030 EVs not only will have made gas cars partially obsolete but also dealer sales, and service to a large extent. Ford knows this and is probably wrestling with this issue as well as write-offs of their existing ICE car manufacturing equipment while at the same time incurring huge investment costs required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market EVs. Well said mlhm5 sir. This is the challenge that every major legacy automaker operating the U.S. faces. And why Tesla decided to operate its own retail network rather than rely on dealerships. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 51 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Well said mlhm5 sir. This is the challenge that every major legacy automaker operating the U.S. faces. And why Tesla decided to operate its own retail network rather than rely on dealerships. They also can't afford to go to a wholesale model - even selling factory direct at full retail they can't turn a consistent profit. And as soon as volume ramps up (if it does) then state franchise laws will be enforced. They've been able to fly under the radar so far because of low volume. So now they have to either build out a lot more sales and service centers or hand out franchises and move to a wholesale model. This idea that what they're currently doing can just scale out by building more GIGAfactories (whatever that means) is ridiculous and short sighted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, akirby said: They also can't afford to go to a wholesale model - even selling factory direct at full retail they can't turn a consistent profit. And as soon as volume ramps up (if it does) then state franchise laws will be enforced. They've been able to fly under the radar so far because of low volume. So now they have to either build out a lot more sales and service centers or hand out franchises and move to a wholesale model. This idea that what they're currently doing can just scale out by building more GIGAfactories (whatever that means) is ridiculous and short sighted. The market has more confidence in Musk than Hackett So, are you confident that a retired CEO from an office furniture manufacturer where he spent 30 years understands the disruptive innovation taking place in the auto industry and is positioning F to be a winner? There are some doubters out there. 2.24.2020 - Detroit Free Press "Ford is facing tremendous downside market and financial risk on so many fronts," he said. "Its restructuring plans have not yielded the benefits as soon as promised and expected, and may never do so. Its European and South American operations are perennial losers and have not improved. And its China business has gone from too late of an entry with too little market share, to less than half of that. The only strong business that Ford has is North America, and even then it is only in the U.S. and Canada since its Mexico presence has fallen to near irrelevancy." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, mlhm5 said: The market has duuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....the Tesla! the Tesla!! the Tesla's on fire...we don't need no water, let the m**** f**** burn...burn m***** f***** burn..... Edited February 25, 2020 by twintornados 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 4 hours ago, mlhm5 said: So, are you confident that a retired CEO from an office furniture manufacturer where he spent 30 years understands the disruptive innovation taking place in the auto industry and is positioning F to be a winner? There are some doubters out there. Yes sir. If anyone can position F to be a winner, or at least not go out of business in the next 20 years, it's Jim Hackett. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 7 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said: Tesla declined to furnish enough information to be included in the 2019 American-Made Index. Even though Tesla could not be included in the cars.com 2019 American-Made index due to lack of data, it is easily the most "American" automaker. Tesla is headquartered in the U.S., 100% of its 2019 model year vehicles sold in the U.S. were designed, engineered, and assembled in the U.S, and a higher percentage of all its employees are Americans than any other automaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 39 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir. If anyone can position F to be a winner, or at least not go out of business in the next 20 years, it's Jim Hackett. The global unit sales market for EVs in 2030 is forecasted to be at least 20 million vehicles per year and most if not all those sales are going to cannibalize the ICE vehicles. To scale up production to meet that demand requires billions in new investments and billions in write-downs of existing ICE manufacturing. If Ford decides to be a player in this market, they will be losing revenue with decreased ICE vehicles and parts sales at the same time they are making the huge investments required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market volumes of EVs. IMO, this will be a one-two knock-out punch for Ford if they decide to manufacture truly competitive EVs on a mass-market scale. If the analysts believed in Hackett after 2+ years at the helm the stock would not be under $8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 56 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir..... duuuhhhhhhhhhh 15 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: The global unit .....bibbity bobbity boo hoo hoo Presenting elec and tron.... Elon's personal cheerleading squad and official polishers of the godly knob of Musk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: To scale up production to meet that demand requires billions in new investments and billions in write-downs of existing ICE manufacturing. That affects all of the incumbent automakers, not just Ford. However, Ford has lots of organizational problems right now that are unique to Ford. If those problems aren't fixed, Ford will get swallowed alive by the automotive industry rEVolution no matter how much they invest. Jim Hackett is the only person who as Ford CEO can steer the company in the right direction so that it still exists 20 years from now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The only thing Ford has to scale up is battery supply. They already have vehicle manufacturing, delivery, sales and service in place. And don’t try to tell me that building an EV is more complicated or drastically an ICE vehicles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, akirby said: The only thing Ford has to scale up is battery supply. They already have vehicle manufacturing, delivery, sales and service in place. And don’t try to tell me that building an EV is more complicated or drastically an ICE vehicles. BEV is less complex mechanically than ICE vehicles. So manufacturing complexity for BEV should be lower, or at worst similar to ICE vehicles. It's on the design and engineering side where the differences are much more dramatic. With BEV, systems integration capability is a key competitive advantage. Tesla is by far the best positioned in that respect. Way ahead of the incumbent automakers. The teardown analysis of Tesla Model 3 by both Nikkei and by Munro and Associates confirm this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 BEVs still have all the body parts, suspension, interiors, electronics and still have to be assembled and painted and shipped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, akirby said: BEVs still have all the body parts, suspension, interiors, electronics and still have to be assembled and painted and shipped. Yes sir. Powertrains of course represent the main advantage of BEV when it comes to simplifying manufacturing. The consulting company AlixPartners calculated it takes 40% fewer hours to assemble an electric motor and battery than a traditional internal-combustion engine and transmission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 8 hours ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir. If anyone can position F to be a winner, or at least not go out of business in the next 20 years, it's Jim Hackett. Ha...hackett was not canned because ford family is aware in current market situation ford finds itself in the stock price would have been at 3.35 instead of 7.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 And for all of Tesla's "advances", people are still dying in their cars due to Tesla's programming. And now the NTSB is calling them out on it. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/tech/tesla-autopilot-safety-ntsb/index.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, 92merc said: And for all of Tesla's "advances", people are still dying in their cars due to Tesla's programming. And now the NTSB is calling them out on it. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/tech/tesla-autopilot-safety-ntsb/index.html makes me wonder what happened here: The front of the Tesla separated from the rear, causing two other drivers to crash. That is not normal behavior for a vehicle to act like that when hitting a fixed object-its supposed to fold and absorb the impact. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51645566 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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