Bloomberg News on Hackett

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, Fordowner said:

True the news over sensationalizes things like this, but heck that is nothing new.   On the other hand - its irresponsible to write this all off.   This is potentially far more dangerous than the flu - for one thing we don't yet have a vaccine for it.  And just getting the testing or screening out there has not been handled well.     I saw a story last night that South Korea has set up drive through testing facilities. 

 

Bottom line, yes even if it spreads the Walking Dead is not about to become real - but as I said - IF THIS gets a foothold in the U.S. it will be more dangerous than the flu.    That is why most countries (apparently not Cambodia) are being so aggressive to contain this new virus strain.    If we do that it will NOT get a Foothold in the U.S. and it will just be a lesson learned for supply chains.     It is nice to see the Governor of Georgia taking this seriously.       

 

It does appear that many specialists in this area do think we are past the point of containment in part because it is not as deadly as the past events like the Avian Flu.   So a vaccine is the long term answer.  As one article stated the " “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

 

 

Oh, I'm not saying it shouldn't be covered or that it shouldn't be a concern, and that the news always oversensationalizes.  It just seems a bit like boy who cried wolf when there's a new disease every few years that's supposed to take out half the world and then doesn't.

 

Anyway, we're way off topic.

Edited March 3, 2020 by rmc523

[probowler]

What do you guys think of the photos and videos of people just passing out in the streets? The flu doesn't do that...

I agree we shouldn't panic, but I do think this is a reminder that we should all have a little extra food and other supplies for times like this or worse.

[silvrsvt]

21 minutes ago, probowler said:

What do you guys think of the photos and videos of people just passing out in the streets? The flu doesn't do that...

I agree we shouldn't panic, but I do think this is a reminder that we should all have a little extra food and other supplies for times like this or worse.

Wihout context or more information we don’t know exactly what is going on in those videos. For all you know it might be fake or something else. 

[theoldwizard]

On 3/2/2020 at 11:06 AM, akirby said:

Honestly it's no different than relying on one factory here in NA and having that factory burn down

That same middle-level management guy was charge of that recovery process !  They recovered most (all?) of the dies.  Some where shipped over-night to that same company's manufacturing facility in EU (production was shifted to make F150 parts first).  While the manufacturer had declared that the plant and machinery were well over 50% loss, Ford employees assessed the equipment and were able to direct operation to get some of it back online within about two weeks.

[sho94_2000]

On 3/2/2020 at 10:06 AM, akirby said:

 

Honestly it's no different than relying on one factory here in NA and having that factory burn down (happened recently - steering wheels?).  The key is having a backup plan that can be implemented quickly (4-5 weeks is pretty quick).

 

Difference being a fire is a legitimate threat.  This is cold symptoms that people are losing their ever loving s**t over.

 

Just read a local news story where "8 tests have come back negative but 8 more are being tested".  OK cool why don't you just not report anything until something is confirmed?  Again they need to stop with the hysteria.

[akirby]

7 minutes ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

Difference being a fire is a legitimate threat.  This is cold symptoms that people are losing their ever loving s**t over.

 

Just read a local news story where "8 tests have come back negative but 8 more are being tested".  OK cool why don't you just not report anything until something is confirmed?  Again they need to stop with the hysteria.

The factories in China are shut down.  The death rate is far higher than regular flu but less than SARS or bird flu.  It doesn’t matter why the factory shut down.  

[akirby]

10 minutes ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

This is cold symptoms that people are losing their ever loving s**t over.

Tell that to the 10 dead people in Washington.

[sho94_2000]

1 minute ago, akirby said:

The factories in China are shut down.  The death rate is far higher than regular flu but less than SARS or bird flu.  It doesn’t matter why the factory shut down.  

 

It does matter.  Because the question becomes would the factory be shut down if we didn't have all this unnecessary hysteria?

 

How many people, in China, die every year of the cold/flu/etc?  Are we comparing our flu death numbers to China's Corona virus death numbers?

 

So many questions to be answered but, more than likely, once answered, it would show how ridiculous this hysteria really is.

[sho94_2000]

2 minutes ago, akirby said:

Tell that to the 10 dead people in Washington.

 

The majority that came out of the same nursing home with preexisting medical issues?

 

Yes clearly it's time to panic lol

[akirby]

41 minutes ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

The majority that came out of the same nursing home with preexisting medical issues?

 

Yes clearly it's time to panic lol

So it’s ok if it only kills old sick people.

[akirby]

47 minutes ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

It does matter.  Because the question becomes would the factory be shut down if we didn't have all this unnecessary hysteria?

 

How many people, in China, die every year of the cold/flu/etc?  Are we comparing our flu death numbers to China's Corona virus death numbers?

 

So many questions to be answered but, more than likely, once answered, it would show how ridiculous this hysteria really is.

Completely missed the point.

[Fordowner]

1 hour ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

It does matter.  Because the question becomes would the factory be shut down if we didn't have all this unnecessary hysteria?

 

How many people, in China, die every year of the cold/flu/etc?  Are we comparing our flu death numbers to China's Corona virus death numbers?

 

So many questions to be answered but, more than likely, once answered, it would show how ridiculous this hysteria really is.

Unnecessary hysteria???? Did China's state run media force the closing of their plant?     Of course more people die from the flu than have died from from the Coronavirus,  but all indications are that the Coronavirus has a higher death rate than the flu and definitely more than the cold.   If the Coronavirus spreads too far and too fast then you could have real hysteria.    True we don't have good #'s yet but indications are that Coronavirus has a 3% mortality rate vs. a 0.1% mortality rate.   That difference becomes significant if Coronavirus spreads like the flu - which it appears to do.    So true some are overreacting but this certainly is not just another flu strain. 

 

And the truth about coronavirus? “I don't think that we are going to get out of this completely unscathed,” he said. “I think that this is going to be one of those things we look back on and say boy, that was bad.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/anthony-fauci-trump-coronavirus-crisis-118961 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Fordowner

[sho94_2000]

13 minutes ago, Fordowner said:

Of course more people die from the flu than have died from from the Coronavirus,  but all indications are that the Coronavirus has a higher death rate than the flu and definitely more than the cold. 

 

Like I said people need to relax.  Saying things like "the death rate is higher" while not providing context is just feeding that.

 

"at a Feb. 24 news conference in Beijing, a top Chinese health official, Liang Wannian, said the fatality rate for COVID-19 was quite high.

 

Between 3 to 4% of patients have died," said Liang.

 

Then he added a twist. Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases."

 

And:

 

"Those early severe cases made COVID-19 look like a much bigger killer. It was only after officials in China stepped up surveillance that they started uncovering many more mild cases (people with symptoms such as fever and dry cough but limited or no pneumonia)."

 

Lastly:

 

"Also, the China CDC study shows that for coronavirus patients ages 70 to 79 the death rate more than triples. For those older than 80 it's more than six times as high."

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

 

Now, while others want to absurdly twist my words and imply that I'm fine with it killing only "old sick people", the fact is, the media is being reckless in their reporting and by over-hyping this.  We know it affects people that have compromised systems and the elderly.  Some people that have dies have not sought treatment.  Who's to say if they had been treated they wouldn't have died?  

 

Not saying we need to just sit back and use essential oils to fight this.  But the reporting on this illness has been abhorrent and only designed to scare people.  The facts are buried under scary headlines.  Bottom line, it needs attention but it has been severely overblown.  

 

 

 

 

[Fordowner]

15 hours ago, sho94_2000 said:

Not saying we need to just sit back and use essential oils to fight this.  But the reporting on this illness has been abhorrent and only designed to scare people.  The facts are buried under scary headlines.  Bottom line, it needs attention but it has been severely overblown.  

All valid points.   We need less baseless fear BUT we do need to be very aggressive in fighting and people need to hear about common sense practices  to stop the spread of this disease because scientists believe this can spread fast and without a vaccine will be deadlier than the Flu on a percentage of those catching it basis.  

 

The bungled screening here also is contributing to any false perceptions because it seems only the severe cases are being identified.   It also could cause a faster  spread because people who have it have not been diagnosed or identified as having it.   

 

I also note your references to news articles - true tabloid journalism and TV news often sensationalizes - but rational reporting, such as NPR, is abundantly available.  But heck apparently a 1/3 of people polled said they won't drink Corona beer because of the Coronavirus and look at all these people attending rallies (partially funded by tax dollars) to hear complaints about toilets, lightbulbs and non exploding dishwashers - a lot don't take the time to  understand.

 

But back to the point - or relevance to autos - supply shortages potentially may not be the big problem if this spreads we may have a demand problem like China is now experiencing.      " According to China Passenger Car Association, new car sales in China plummeted 80% year over year in February 2020. This marked the biggest monthly plunge on record as coronavirus concerns kept showroom traffic very low."   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/auto-sales-china-log-biggest-140402126.html 

   

[akirby]

Look at it this way - whether the death rate is .1% or 1% or 10%, containing it and stopping a pandemic will save a lot of lives.  

[sho94_2000]

6 minutes ago, akirby said:

Look at it this way - whether the death rate is .1% or 1% or 10%, containing it and stopping a pandemic will save a lot of lives.  

 

Nobody has argued the opposite or advocated that we should not be containing it.

 

That being said there is no way to contain it so actually, those efforts will be futile.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-phillips-americans-must-live-their-lives-99-of-people-who-get-cv-will-be-fine

Edited March 5, 2020 by sho94_2000

[kyle]

I guess as long as my family and I Am part of the 99% group life will be fine:)

 

all kidding aside you wonder why major companies are restricting travel and events are being cancelled. These organizations are not dictated by the media but want to make sure they don’t endanger their employees to something that is potentially deadly. 
 

 

[Gurgeh]

2 hours ago, sho94_2000 said:

 

Nobody has argued the opposite or advocated that we should not be containing it.

 

That being said there is no way to contain it so actually, those efforts will be futile.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-phillips-americans-must-live-their-lives-99-of-people-who-get-cv-will-be-fine

 

The virus is now well uncorked globally, and the early extraordinary measures being taken to try to block its spread will now mostly just hurt the economy (it is responses to the virus, not the affect of the virus itself that have been upending global supply chains). That said, the early efforts were still worthwhile, as they slowed its spread beyond China which has allowed us to start getting into the warmer weather that is likely to lessen its impact. The way to treat COVID-19 is the way we treat the flu. Advocate good personal hygiene, try to get people vaccinated once a vaccine is available, ensure a strong public heath infrastructure, and provide treatment to the most vulnerable groups -- the elderly and infirm. We might have one more cold/flu season to get through before we have a vaccine, but we'll see. 

[jpd80]

In Australia, panic buying toilet rolls, long life milk tinned food and face masks.

The run on face masks now mean doctors don't have enough and if they run out,

they have to shut to avoid spreading the virus. This could runaway very quickly.

 

The other dilemma is people are suppose to voluntary isolate if they feel sick 

but you know that self employed and casual workers with no leave pay will

keep working and spread it. There's a lot of concern that to can't be contained.

Edited March 5, 2020 by jpd80

[Fordowner]

2 hours ago, sho94_2000 said:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-phillips-americans-must-live-their-lives-99-of-people-who-get-cv-will-be-fine

 

So that link is comments by  Dr. James Phillips (who serves as the George Washington University School of Medicine's operational medicine fellowship director.)- and it is a Fox News story.   

Dr. Phillips says :  98 to 99% of people who get coronavirus will 'do just fine' (sounds like he is saying the death rate is 1-2% vs. the flu that is only .1%?) and Dr. Phillips also says  "Most of us are going to get this virus. It's undeniable."    Considering the Flu has a much lower death rate and most people do not get it thanks to the vaccine this seems very alarming.     

 

Finally what does Dr. Phillips and others mean by you can't contain it?   Dr. Phillips says that but then he says strength of the Corona virus depends on one's proximity to and amount of time around it.   That sounds like limiting our exposure to the virus (containing it) does help.   Where I work they constantly ask people not to come in when they have the flu so that others don't catch it.   It seems reckless to say all we can do is take a deep breath and accept it. 

 

[sho94_2000]

52 minutes ago, Fordowner said:

 

So that link is comments by  Dr. James Phillips (who serves as the George Washington University School of Medicine's operational medicine fellowship director.)- and it is a Fox News story.   

Dr. Phillips says :  98 to 99% of people who get coronavirus will 'do just fine' (sounds like he is saying the death rate is 1-2% vs. the flu that is only .1%?) and Dr. Phillips also says  "Most of us are going to get this virus. It's undeniable."    Considering the Flu has a much lower death rate and most people do not get it thanks to the vaccine this seems very alarming.     

 

Finally what does Dr. Phillips and others mean by you can't contain it?   Dr. Phillips says that but then he says strength of the Corona virus depends on one's proximity to and amount of time around it.   That sounds like limiting our exposure to the virus (containing it) does help.   Where I work they constantly ask people not to come in when they have the flu so that others don't catch it.   It seems reckless to say all we can do is take a deep breath and accept it. 

 

 

What does it matter if it is from Fox?  

 

We've already established the death rate is plunging and, outside of Wuhan it's 0.7%.  

 

Lastly, there are almost 100k documented cases.  More than likely there are many more that are undocumented.  How would you realistically contain that in a way that is both responsible and effective?  I will tell you that if I get this cold I will most certainly not lock myself indoors and remove myself from the world.  I have to make money.  If the symptoms progress from cold like to flu like then I will stay home and wait for them to subside.  

 

 

[Harley Lover]

On 3/5/2020 at 3:07 PM, Gurgeh said:

which has allowed us to start getting into the warmer weather that is likely to lessen its impact. 

 

The WHO says "It's a "false hope" that COVID-19 will be seasonal and subside in the summer, like the flu".

 

Quote

During a press briefing Monday, WHO officials said they don't know how COVID-19 behaves, saying it's not like influenza. They added that while much is known about the seasonal flu, such as how it's transmitted and what treatments work to suppress the disease, that same information is still in question when it comes to the coronavirus.

"This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. "We are in uncharted territory."

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says/ar-BB10QrLc?li=BBnb7Kz

Edited March 8, 2020 by Harley Lover

[paintguy]

If Hackett has coronavirus, this thread would make sense. Any assembly or parts plants down due to lack of delivery from China? Years ago typical "pipeline" from China was about 4 weeks. Filling in gaps once production resumed would involve extra cost (airfreight). Sympathy to all around the world suffering. But keep in mind the ~30,000 US deaths from flu each year. Many also sick or elderly. 

[ZanatWork]

Flu deaths in Washington State, for perspective

See that?  Several times more than the current media fixation, and more widespread...and, largely avoidable by the same means.

I work in Seattle, and the quarantine center they're trying to put into Kent is essentially down the street from my apartment.  This is a hyped-up mess of ridiculous proportions...but no, it's not "just ok that it kills old people".  It's got a fraction of the awful stats that the flu has, but gets exponentially more press.

Hygiene and common sense can go a long way toward containing this, much more than hoarding Charmin and Lysol will.

[pictor]

If 15,000,0000 Americans come down covid-19, the est number who had the flu this season, based on a 2% death rate, we can expect 300,000  deaths.  This would  be 20 times higher than the number of flue rated fatalities.  Just because the covid -19 numbers are small now,  it could get really bad if not taken seriously.  The number of  flue patients is relatively low compared to the general population because  of immunization and residual immunity in the population by prior infections.  This is not the case for Covid -19 where no vaccine currently exists and no residual immunity exists.  For 80% of the population who acquire the virus it will be a minor irritant,  for the remaining 20% it will be a more severe illness.  In Developed nations with a higher percentage of older residents, death rate maybe higher.