Tesla Model Y To Ship In March

[jpd80]

Tesla may have a serious problem selling vehicles in Ca without that $7,500 credit

[HotRunrGuy]

6 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Tesla may have a serious problem selling vehicles in Ca without that $7,500 credit

 

I see that some states have jumped in, and offer credits/incentives to EV buyers, but many of them have a $40/50K value limit on the vehicle price.

 

HRG

[mlhm5]

4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

896,526

Ford is out of the sedan market, so they had nothing to lose with the Model 3 sales, however, with the Model Y launching this month, Ford stands to lose sales in the mid-size SUV market. Too early to forecast anything regarding the truck market other than to say every sale of an EV truck will be at the expense of an ICE truck.

[rperez817]

40 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Too early to forecast anything regarding the truck market other than to say every sale of an EV truck will be at the expense of an ICE truck.

 

Yes sir. That's why Ford cannot afford to mess up the launch of BEV F-Series. Ford's goal should be to beat Tesla, GM, and other competitors as the first to market with a truly capable, mass produced BEV pickup.

[blwnsmoke]

1 hour ago, mlhm5 said:

Ford is out of the sedan market, so they had nothing to lose with the Model 3 sales, however, with the Model Y launching this month, Ford stands to lose sales in the mid-size SUV market. Too early to forecast anything regarding the truck market other than to say every sale of an EV truck will be at the expense of an ICE truck.

 

No sir, there will be plenty of Tesla owners who will buy the CT because it is a Tesla.  That means, they would never consider a Ford, GM or Ram.  That also makes your statement incorrect.

[jpd80]

10 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

Tesla has declared war on the SUV market and if the Model Y (scheduled to launch mid-March 2020) does as well as the Model 3, the entire mid-size SUV market will have a new dominant player. I do not see anything on the near horizon that will compete with the Model Y in 2020. There is no doubt that Tesla will sell more Model Y's in the 12 months from the launch date than they sold Model 3's in 2019. That should shake up the mid-size SUV market. We will address the EV truck market in 2021, but just from the 500K+ reservations, Tesla will be successful with the Cybertruck and each Cybertruck sale will cannibalize an ICE truck sale. 

You don’t know that for sure as Tesla is a lifestyle choice, it could actually draw from luxury marques like BMW or MB more than existing truck brands which tend to be savagely tribal.... and that’s why I believe that Tesla cyber truck will have only minimal impact on F Series sales. 
 

With the launch of the Y, Tesla has a decision on how many Ys and 3s it wants to build, that product mix will also be governed by how much spare production capacity Tesla has, I’m assuming that Tesla will be expanding US production capacity otherwise they hit a giant brick wall.

Edited March 2, 2020 by jpd80

[blwnsmoke]

23 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

You don’t know that for sure as Tesla is a lifestyle choice, it could actually draw from luxury marques like BMW or MB more than existing truck brands which tend to be savagely tribal.... and that’s why I believe that Tesla cyber truck will have only minimal impact on F Series sales. 
 

With the launch of the Y, Tesla has a decision on how many Ys and 3s it wants to build, that product mix will also be governed by how much spare production capacity Tesla has, I’m assuming that Tesla will be expanding US production capacity otherwise they hit a giant brick wall.

 

Didnt you hear?  Tesla will have 5 gigafactories soon.  Dont remember who I heard that from.....  over and over and over.....

[mlhm5]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

You don’t know that for sure as Tesla is a lifestyle choice, it could actually draw from luxury marques like BMW or MB more than existing truck brands which tend to be savagely tribal.... and that’s why I believe that Tesla cyber truck will have only minimal impact on F Series sales. 
 

With the launch of the Y, Tesla has a decision on how many Ys and 3s it wants to build, that product mix will also be governed by how much spare production capacity Tesla has, I’m assuming that Tesla will be expanding US production capacity otherwise they hit a giant brick wall.

I hope Ford shares your opinion.

[jpd80]

50 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

 

Didnt you hear?  Tesla will have 5 gigafactories soon.  Dont remember who I heard that from.....  over and over and over.....

No doubt Tesla will be successful but I doubt it's as easy as a zero sum game where Tesla ravages existing utility sales.

 

[jpd80]

3 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

I hope Ford shares your opinion.

There's no need for hope, those guys will wait for their BEVs  before ever buying another brand

and to deny that is to deny 900,000 sales per year.

Edited March 2, 2020 by jpd80

[akirby]

3 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

Ford is out of the sedan market, so they had nothing to lose with the Model 3 sales, however, with the Model Y launching this month, Ford stands to lose sales in the mid-size SUV market. Too early to forecast anything regarding the truck market other than to say every sale of an EV truck will be at the expense of an ICE truck.

 

So why didn't Model X take SUV sales away from Ford?   Model Y is not the first Tesla SUV.

[blwnsmoke]

13 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

So why didn't Model X take SUV sales away from Ford?   Model Y is not the first Tesla SUV.

 

But it did.. By his logic, every Model X caused a missed sale from a competitor despite us knowing without a doubt that there are plenty of Tesla fanboys who will only buy Tesla.

 

Now on a more serious note, majority of Ford's SUVs are far below a Model X in terms of pricing.  And you can't forget, California is the #1 market for auto sales and Tesla was #3.... or..... so I've been told over...and over... and over.

 

I believe there will quite a few cancelations.  How long will 500,000 CTs take?  3+ years?  There are Tesla loyal.. there are new interested parties..  But there are plenty of people who need distance for towing, 8 foot beds etc.  250-300 miles per charge I don't think will satisfy majority of Truck owners unless they are grocery getters.  How much is the trimotor going to cost for the 500 miles and once you stray 14,000 pounds to it, how long will it last (no way you can hook up a 14k 5th wheel to that IMO).

[jpd80]

26 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

So why didn't Model X take SUV sales away from Ford?   Model Y is not the first Tesla SUV.

That’s a great point, surely the model X would have pointed to a voracious BEV market.

 The Y will get sales but I think the cannibalisation will be closer to home.....

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, blwnsmoke said:

 

Didnt you hear?  Tesla will have 5 gigafactories soon.  Dont remember who I heard that from.....  over and over and over.....

 

*knock knock*

 

I'm here with the Tesla mafia and I'm here to inform you that Tesla will have 5, yes 5! Gigafactories soon.  Not 1, not 2, 3, or even 4, but FIVE!!

 

[rmc523]

6 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

 

But it did.. By his logic, every Model X caused a missed sale from a competitor despite us knowing without a doubt that there are plenty of Tesla fanboys who will only buy Tesla.

 

Now on a more serious note, majority of Ford's SUVs are far below a Model X in terms of pricing.  And you can't forget, California is the #1 market for auto sales and Tesla was #3.... or..... so I've been told over...and over... and over.

 

I believe there will quite a few cancelations.  How long will 500,000 CTs take?  3+ years?  There are Tesla loyal.. there are new interested parties..  But there are plenty of people who need distance for towing, 8 foot beds etc.  250-300 miles per charge I don't think will satisfy majority of Truck owners unless they are grocery getters.  How much is the trimotor going to cost for the 500 miles and once you stray 14,000 pounds to it, how long will it last (no way you can hook up a 14k 5th wheel to that IMO).

 

IMO, a huge chunk of those CT reservations were just people that did it just to say they did, and that they don't actually plan on following through.

 

Also, CT is clearly geared more toward the "grocery getter" segment of the truck market.

[jpd80]

19 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

IMO, a huge chunk of those CT reservations were just people that did it just to say they did, and that they don't actually plan on following through.

 

Also, CT is clearly geared more toward the "grocery getter" segment of the truck market.

Maybe a lot of them were booked for a cheap base model 3 that Tesla resisted making. The moment Tesla started prioritising high series builds, we knew that those base 3 buyers would be at the end of a very long list.

Edited March 2, 2020 by jpd80

[jcartwright99]

9 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

I see that some states have jumped in, and offer credits/incentives to EV buyers, but many of them have a $40/50K value limit on the vehicle price.

 

HRG

 

I mean the government has subsidized millionaires getting their Tesla's so far, I wonder why states are doing this. 

[jcartwright99]

The model Y will make the model 3 obsolete. Cannibalizing their own sales. The only folks that will buy the model 3 are the folks that can't afford the Y.

 

I remember, say in 2007, when Toyota could do no wrong. They and their zealots, auto mags,  and media told anyone who would listen that they are going to take over the truck market now with the Tundra. It was the truck that was going to change everything and finally crack the full size truck market. What happened? Toyota gave it a good first (2nd or 3rd) crack....on paper at least. Within a 3 years, it was woefully outdated and outclassed. Toyota couldn't make the business case to keep upgrading their pick ups in the full size arms race.  They only people that buy Tundra's now are the Toyota faithful or value hunters. I see this happening to the Tesla pickup too.  A niche player at best. 

 

Let's see all this Tesla growth in 2020. Tesla has ADHD. The come out with a product and let it die on the vine. How are those model S sales or better yet the Model D? Product is still the same as intro, only the software changes.  Each new product become the next big thing. Tesla is the equivalent of Apple in the automotive world, except they aren't profitable but they do seem to be trendy is certain groups.

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

No sir, there will be plenty of Tesla owners who will buy the CT because it is a Tesla.  That means, they would never consider a Ford, GM or Ram. 

 

What about Ford and GM pickup truck owners? Ford and GM both said they will start selling BEV pickup trucks within the next 2 years. The challenge will be for Ford and GM to retain those customers, and not have them defect to Tesla or other companies planning to sell BEV pickup trucks.

[jcartwright99]

3 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

What about Ford and GM pickup truck owners? Ford and GM both said they will start selling BEV pickup trucks within the next 2 years. The challenge will be for Ford and GM to retain those customers, and not have them defect to Tesla or other companies planning to sell BEV pickup trucks.

 

So you're saying that Tesla knows what the majority of pickup truck buyers want? Got it! What part of, it will be a niche player do you not understand? I don't think Ford, Ram, or GM (maybe GM) has a problem retaining customers as they tend to listen to their customers, not give them breakable/unbreakable glass. But it's a Tesla and it's fast! That won't cut it either. Neither will having your power degrade over hard use (see Porsche showing how to truly build a consistent track able fast electric car).

[rperez817]

40 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

I mean the government has subsidized millionaires getting their Tesla's so far, I wonder why states are doing this. 

 

State governments, just like federal government, are pursuing policies that reduce petroleum use, GHG emissions, and local air pollutant emissions. Those things benefit everybody. Incentives for the purchase or lease of BEV and EV charging equipment help fulfill those goals.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, jcartwright99 said:

 

So you're saying that Tesla knows what the majority of pickup truck buyers want? Got it! What part of, it will be a niche player do you not understand? I don't think Ford, Ram, or GM (maybe GM) has a problem retaining customers as they tend to listen to their customers, not give them breakable/unbreakable glass. But it's a Tesla and it's fast! That won't cut it either. Neither will having your power degrade over hard use (see Porsche showing how to truly build a consistent track able fast electric car).

If there is one thing Ford understands and Tesla doesn’t it’s pickup trucks.  They’ll get some niche buyers but Ford, GM and Rivian will be far more successful especially when you factor in a built in $7500 price advantage.

[rperez817]

3 minutes ago, akirby said:

If there is one thing Ford understands and Tesla doesn’t it’s pickup trucks.

 

Also, Ford is alive today because of its success in the pickup truck market. But all of those pickup trucks are ICE powered. As the rEVolution in the automotive industry continues, it's vital that Ford successfully transitions its pickup truck lineup to BEV, and in particular get the BEV F-Series to market before Tesla, GM, and others. The company's future survival depends on it.

[blwnsmoke]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

State governments, just like federal government, are pursuing policies that reduce petroleum use, GHG emissions, and local air pollutant emissions. Those things benefit everybody. Incentives for the purchase or lease of BEV and EV charging equipment help fulfill those goals.

 

Yes, taking MY tax money and giving it to someone who makes 6 figures so they can enjoy their Tesla makes so much sense.  And this goes for ANY electric vehicle, not just TESLA.  We should not be having to give our tax dollars to people who can afford the vehicles.  And if you can't afford the vehicle, then it shouldn't be in your garage.

[rperez817]

1 minute ago, blwnsmoke said:

 We should not be having to give our tax dollars to people who can afford the vehicles.

 

If you have a problem with BEV incentives, contact your legislators and make a case against them.