Tesla Model Y To Ship In March

[blwnsmoke]

20 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

If you have a problem with BEV incentives, contact your legislators and make a case against them.

 

Oh yes.. because Congress works for the people, right?  Bwahahaha..  Good one.

[mlhm5]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

 

So why didn't Model X take SUV sales away from Ford?   Model Y is not the first Tesla SUV.

The model x is a luxury SUV and costs ~$100K. The Model Y is the SUV Tesla is using to declare war on the mid-size SUV segment.

[mlhm5]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

There's no need for hope, those guys will wait for their BEVs  before ever buying another brand

and to deny that is to deny 900,000 sales per year.

With 500K+ reservations for the Cybertruck, IMO,  it would be a tremendous, no disastrous risk to any pick-up manufacturer to think all those reservations for the Cybertruck are from people who have never owned a pick-up truck and will be buying one for the first time.

[akirby]

32 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

The model x is a luxury SUV and costs ~$100K. The Model Y is the SUV Tesla is using to declare war on the mid-size SUV segment.

Ok, just so we’re clear - Model Y is NOT a luxury vehicle.   You heard it here first folks.

[rperez817]

21 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

With 500K+ reservations for the Cybertruck, IMO,  it would be a tremendous, no disastrous risk to any pick-up manufacturer to think all those reservations for the Cybertruck are from people who have never owned a pick-up truck and will be buying one for the first time.

 

Yes sir. BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi found out the hard way that reservations for Model 3 starting in 2016 weren't all from people who never owned a compact luxury sedan and were buying one for the first time. 3-Series, C-Class, and A4 sales have dropped significantly since then. The introduction of Tesla Model 3 is a major reason why. 

[rperez817]

3 minutes ago, akirby said:

Ok, just so we’re clear - Model Y is NOT a luxury vehicle.   You heard it here first folks.

 

We heard it, but that doesn't make it true.

[akirby]

3 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

We heard it, but that doesn't make it true.

So mlhm5  lies. You heard it here folks.

[akirby]

5 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir. BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi found out the hard way that reservations for Model 3 starting in 2016 weren't all from people who never owned a compact luxury sedan and were buying one for the first time. 3-Series, C-Class, and A4 sales have dropped significantly since then. The introduction of Tesla Model 3 is a major reason why. 

That doesn’t explain the drop in midsize family sedans that occurred at the same time.  You guys are really grasping at straws in your defense of Tesla.

[rperez817]

4 minutes ago, akirby said:

So mlhm5  lies. You heard it here folks.

 

While mlhm5 didn't say so explicitly, it is possible that the comparison between Model X and Model Y could be interpreted in a way that is incorrect, that is, Model Y is not a luxury vehicle. Maybe mlhm5 can clarify.

Edited March 3, 2020 by rperez817

[rperez817]

9 minutes ago, akirby said:

That doesn’t explain the drop in midsize family sedans that occurred at the same time. 

 

Tesla Model 3 isn't in the midsize family sedan segment. Though it is possible some owners of midsize family sedans decided to upgrade to a Model 3 rather than get a new version of the midsize sedan they had.

 

Ideally, the graph in the OP should show a comparison between Tesla Model 3 sales compared to that of BMW 3-Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, and Lexus IS, rather than Accord, Camry, Civic, and Corolla.

Edited March 3, 2020 by rperez817

[akirby]

8 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Tesla Model 3 isn't in the midsize family sedan segment. Though it is possible some owners of midsize family sedans decided to upgrade to a Model 3 rather than get a new version of the midsize sedan they had.

 

Ideally, the graph in the OP should show a comparison between Tesla Model 3 sales compared to that of BMW 3-Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, and Lexus IS, rather than Accord, Camry, Civic, and Corolla.

Way to completely miss the point.

 

You said the drop in ICE sales for luxury sedans was certainly due to model 3 taking those sales.  I was pointing out that all other sedan sales dropped at the same time which implies the drop was not necessarily due to model 3 sales but instead due to a market shift away from sedans in general.

[rperez817]

47 minutes ago, akirby said:

You said the drop in ICE sales for luxury sedans was certainly due to model 3 taking those sales. 

 

Correct. BMW in particular, but other luxury brands were impacted too. The president of dealership group Sonic Automotive confirmed this last year. From February 21, 2019 issue of Automotive News.

 

Quote

One of the largest U.S. auto dealers just had a rough quarter selling BMWs, and a top executive said Tesla Inc. played a major role. Sonic Automotive Inc., the fifth-largest U.S. dealership group, reported a disappointing fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday. Jeff Dyke, Sonic’s president, said “challenging” times for BMW AG and Honda Motor Co. were partly to blame. Many of Sonic’s stores selling those companies’ brands are in California, the home of Tesla’s headquarters and by far the largest market for the Model 3 sedan.

When asked by an analyst whether Tesla factored in BMW’s challenges, Dyke answered on Sonic’s earnings call: “There’s no question.”
“I’ve spent a lot of time in manufacturing meetings, and five years ago, Tesla was just not even a real big topic,” Dyke said. “Today, it’s at the top of everybody’s board, and it needs to be."

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by rperez817

[CKNSLS]

On 3/1/2020 at 12:10 PM, blwnsmoke said:

 

FTFY..  oh by the way..

 

 

Just took my family on a skiing vacation, 386 miles round trip to the resort on 1 tank of fuel with my Explorer ST doing 75-80 fully loaded (4 people, 3 suitcases, 3 boot bags, 4 pairs of skis and poles and a huge styrofoam cooler full of food with a ski box on the roof.

 

Model Y would have left me stranded after about 1/4 of the way home with its 315 mile range (in perfect conditions, never mind the cold ski temps affecting battery).  There was ZERO places to charge anywhere along our trip..

 

So yea, that damn war Tesla just announced against ICE is really going to put those ICE SUVs out of commission.

 

Tesla good, ICE bad.

You don't understand the thought process of those who own EVs. They look for charging stations and will happily wait the half hour or so for a refuel.  Without the Tesla APP-it would be impossible for you to know if/and how far the charging stations were.  Yes-Tesla is going to hurt some automakers SUVs.

Quote

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by CKNSLS

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

Though it is possible some owners of midsize family sedans decided to upgrade to a Model 3 rather than get a new version of the midsize sedan they had.

 

Went through some old Automotive News issues and found this is more common than I originally thought. And not just midsize sedans, but some non-luxury compacts too.

Top 5 car models traded in for Tesla Model 3.

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3-Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

Here is what Automotive News said Toyota dealers are seeing.

"Toyota dealers are facing uncharacteristic defections from one of the brand's most recognizable products, the Prius, to one of the industry's upstarts, Tesla. Toyota has an overall defection rate to other brands of about 9 percent, and about half of that is made up of Prius owners going to Tesla, according to Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota Motor North America."

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

With 500K+ reservations for the Cybertruck, IMO,  it would be a tremendous, no disastrous risk to any pick-up manufacturer to think all those reservations for the Cybertruck are from people who have never owned a pick-up truck and will be buying one for the first time.

A small portion yes but I guarantee you a lot are first time truck buyers, enamoured with all things Tesla.

I actually wonder if Tesla's target is BMW and MB and their lux SUVs, the cybertruck approximates a

better version of a lux lifestyle vehicle.

 

It won't be all that long before Ford has its BEV F Truck up and rolling so it's not like they're doing nothing

and the one thing you can be sure about is that Ford gets its F Trucks right for buyers, that's why they have

so many annual sales and why Tesla's success doesn't necessarily mean downfall for Ford.

Edited March 3, 2020 by jpd80

[Gurgeh]

10 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Went through some old Automotive News issues and found this is more common than I originally thought. And not just midsize sedans, but some non-luxury compacts too.

Top 5 car models traded in for Tesla Model 3.

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3-Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

Here is what Automotive News said Toyota dealers are seeing.

 

 

This list is quite interesting. #1 and #2 appears to be people who bought last decade's "look at me, aren't I special" sedans and are trading them in for the latest one of that sort. These buyers are fickle and will go wherever the status takes them. But #3-5 is different. #3 and #4 are people looking for practical small sedans. And #5 are likely those folks who genuinely want to drive the best semi-affordable EV they can find and don't care whether it is the latest fad or not (the Leaf sure never was).

 

12 hours ago, akirby said:

Ok, just so we’re clear - Model Y is NOT a luxury vehicle.   You heard it here first folks.

That's the thing. Models 3 and Y are not luxury vehicles as they lack luxury features and appointments. They are only priced like them. But that doesn't mean that rich people don't buy them, as they are cool things to show off in your driveway.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Gurgeh
Edited to fix typo pointed out by Silvrst

[silvrsvt]

31 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

This list is quite interesting. #1 and #2 appears to be people who bought last decade's "look at me, aren't I special" sedans and are trading them in for the latest one of that sort. These buyers are fickle and will go wherever the status takes them. But #2-5 is different. #2 and #3 are people looking for practical small sedans. And #5 are likely those folks who genuinely want to drive the best semi-affordable EV they can find and don't care whether it is the latest fad or not (the Leaf sure never was).

 

Don't you mean #3 and 4 are practical small sedans?

 

1 and 2 are pretentious car owners. 

 

5 is this is cheapest EV but really a POS. 

[Gurgeh]

31 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Don't you mean #3 and 4 are practical small sedans?

 

1 and 2 are pretentious car owners. 

 

5 is this is cheapest EV but really a POS. 

Yes, sorry, I meant #3 and #4. ...and by "best" it is all relative. When the Leaf first came out it was crappy as heck, but still the best available. Then the Bolt came out (semi ok). Then Model 3 (better).

Edited March 3, 2020 by Gurgeh

[MY93SHO]

13 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

The model x is a luxury SUV and costs ~$100K. The Model Y is the SUV Tesla is using to declare war on the mid-size SUV segment.

 

Squeaks, rattles, and needs cv shafts at 7000 miles? How luxurious.

[silvrsvt]

14 minutes ago, MY93SHO said:

Squeaks, rattles, and needs cv shafts at 7000 miles? How luxurious.

 

I was in a Tesla model S and I was completely underwhelmed by the interior-felt more like cheap IKEA then luxurious.

[atomcat68]

As far as Tesla taking over the world, one still has to look at an opposing view...

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-refreshing-month-tesla-bear-predicts-biggest-single-stock-bubble-in-this-whole-bubble-market-will-hit-zero-2020-03-01?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

I did drive the Model S, and loved it despite the fit and finish and the Model X i didn't like as much due to the strange doors and the mountain of fit and finish problems too enormous to ignore. But one has to be realistic and see both sides of the coin.

 

A Tesla investment will pay off big time if it works, but there are huge risks. You have to realize you are doing the same amount of gambling as walking into a casino.

[rmc523]

16 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Also, Ford is alive today because of its success in the pickup truck market. But all of those pickup trucks are ICE powered. As the rEVolution in the automotive industry continues, it's vital that Ford successfully transitions its pickup truck lineup to BEV, and in particular get the BEV F-Series to market before Tesla, GM, and others. The company's future survival depends on it.

 

I think you're vastly overestimating the timeline/transition to BEVs in the truck market.

 

15 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

With 500K+ reservations for the Cybertruck, IMO,  it would be a tremendous, no disastrous risk to any pick-up manufacturer to think all those reservations for the Cybertruck are from people who have never owned a pick-up truck and will be buying one for the first time.

 

I doubt 1/5 of those reservations carry through.

 

3 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

This list is quite interesting. #1 and #2 appears to be people who bought last decade's "look at me, aren't I special" sedans and are trading them in for the latest one of that sort. These buyers are fickle and will go wherever the status takes them. But #3-5 is different. #3 and #4 are people looking for practical small sedans. And #5 are likely those folks who genuinely want to drive the best semi-affordable EV they can find and don't care whether it is the latest fad or not (the Leaf sure never was).

 

That's the thing. Models 3 and Y are not luxury vehicles as they lack luxury features and appointments. They are only priced like them. But that doesn't mean that rich people don't buy them, as they are cool things to show off in your driveway.

 

What will be interesting to me is to see how that list shifts once the incentives disappear.  Do those "regular" models fall off the list because then only "luxury car buyers" will be able to purchase it due to price?

[mlhm5]

Now that the Model Y is being launched this month lets take a look at the SUV market. Between 2017-2018 7 out of the top 10 selling SUVs in the US gained sales. From 2018-2019 only 5 gained sales. During that time period, 9 out of the top-selling sedans lost market share most likely due toTesla selling over 250K Model 3's. Is this a predictor of things to come with the Model Y?

Most of Model 3 owners are never buying an ICE vehicle ever again. Today the number of people who have experienced a Tesla is not 250K+ but their family members, friends, relatives work associates so probably between 1-2MM people are familiar with a Tesla. Every Tesla Model Y reservation holder and those who know that the Model Y will be their next vehicle takes away from a sale that would have been an ICE SUV.

So here is a forecast for 2020 with Tesla all out of the Fremont factory. Keep in mind that Fremont is building for Europe until the Berlin gigafactory opens, so regardless of the demand Fremont is limited beyond a certain point. Best guess is 600-650K total out of Fremont.

 

Model X and S - Sales USA and Europe between 65K and 75K

Model 3 - Sales US and Europe 365K to 400K 

Model Y - 50K-150K 90% USA sales

Semi - 175-500 units

[atomcat68]

[akirby]

And they've done all that while relying on a $7500 tax credit and virtually no competition yet still can't turn a profit.

 

What will happen when they have real competition and that competition has a $7500 price advantage?   We've already seen registrations fall by 50% in CA when the tax credit went away.

 

Guess we'll find out.  

 

The incessant cheerleading in the face of conflicting facts is tiresome.