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Tesla Model Y To Ship In March


mlhm5

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2 hours ago, akirby said:

And they've done all that while relying on a $7500 tax credit and virtually no competition yet still can't turn a profit.

 

What will happen when they have real competition and that competition has a $7500 price advantage?   We've already seen registrations fall by 50% in CA when the tax credit went away.

 

Guess we'll find out.  

 

The incessant cheerleading in the face of conflicting facts is tiresome.

I don't think manufacturing ~600K cars WW is cheerleading when Tesla has stated they have more demand than they can produce. Tesla runs the Freemont factory 6 weeks out the quarter for Europe and 6 weeks for North America. Tesla sold 95K+ Model 3's in Europe in 2019 and has sold out of Model 3s in both Germany and the UK in Q1 2020. Tesla will produce 25K more cars in Fremont in Q12020 than they did in Q12019 and since China is now producing (reopened after Coronavirus) ~12K Model 3s per Q, Tesla will not be shipping 10K model 3s to China in Q12020. Those 3's will go to Europe. The Berlin gigafactory will not start delivering cars until, at the earliest, July 2021. Tesla grew sales by 50% in 2019 and selling 500K in 2020 would only be a growth of 36% over 2019 which should be a lot higher since the Model 3 is ramping up in China and the Model Y will be introduced in March 2020.

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4 hours ago, akirby said:

What will happen when they have real competition and that competition has a $7500 price advantage?  

 

The bigger question is if Tesla will have real competition. In the U.S., the two so called "Tesla killers" in crossover segments from incumbent automakers since 2018, Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace, together couldn't attain even half the sales of Tesla Model X alone in 2019.

 

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3 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

I thought that 46% drop was just California, not US-wide.

 

HRG

 

25 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

That’s production, I said sales and as we already know, sales of the 3 dipped in the US by 46% in Q4

 

Screen Shot 03-03-20 at 03.40 PM.PNG

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

The bigger question is if Tesla will have real competition. In the U.S., the two so called "Tesla killers" in crossover segments from incumbent automakers since 2018, Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace, together couldn't attain even half the sales of Tesla Model X alone in 2019.

 


Thats because those companies aren’t selling vehicles at a loss and getting by on handouts and magic credits and future deposits.

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4 minutes ago, akirby said:


Thats because those companies aren’t selling vehicles at a loss and getting by on handouts and magic credits and future deposits.

Tesla sold 367K vehicles last year and will sell 500K+ in 2020. They are now building 3K M3s per week in China and the MY is launching in the USA/Europe this month. China and Europe are huge markets for EVs because of certain Euro programs to discourage ICEs and the fact that the oil companies are into fast charging. For example, Tesla sold 12K M3s in the Netherlands in just Dec 2019. Tesla is also building a gigafactory in Berlin which should be online by 3Q2021. Now I am not sure what Tesla's battery day conference April will bring but according to Musk, "Tesla has a “compelling story” to tell about things that can “blow people’s minds.” IMO, they may announce a $100/kWh battery. If so it is game over for all other EV manufacturers.

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17 minutes ago, akirby said:


Thats because those companies aren’t selling vehicles at a loss and getting by on handouts and magic credits and future deposits.

 

Neither is Tesla. Audi and Jaguar have designed very nice BEV with e-tron and I-Pace respectively. But they haven't caught up to Tesla in technology, efficiency, and marketing.

 

And do you know for sure that Audi and Jaguar aren't selling these models at a loss? Both resorted to big time sales incentives last year, yet as mentioned earlier were completely eclipsed by Tesla in actual sales. Example with I-Pace below.

 

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12 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

Now I am not sure what Tesla's battery day conference April will bring but according to Musk, "Tesla has a “compelling story” to tell about things that can “blow people’s minds.” IMO, they may announce a $100/kWh battery. If so it is game over for all other EV manufacturers.

 

I hope that Tesla's battery technology breakthroughs make the incumbent automakers take BEV engineering and development more seriously. Or make them consider purchasing battery packs from Tesla. The more BEVs in the marketplace, from all brands, the better.

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7 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

So here is a forecast for 2020

 

The year 2020 started with a decline of global passenger plug-in electric car sales, although we remain cautiously optimistic (as the surge in Europe almost offset the drop in China).

January was the seventh consecutive month of decrease - by 7% year-over-year to about 150,600, at a market share of 2%.

The interesting thing is that all-electric cars noted a 23% decline, while plug-in hybrids went up by 37%.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/401632/global-plugin-sales-january-2020/

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, OX1 said:

 

The year 2020 started with a decline of global passenger plug-in electric car sales, although we remain cautiously optimistic (as the surge in Europe almost offset the drop in China).

January was the seventh consecutive month of decrease - by 7% year-over-year to about 150,600, at a market share of 2%.

The interesting thing is that all-electric cars noted a 23% decline, while plug-in hybrids went up by 37%.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/401632/global-plugin-sales-january-2020/

 

 

 

China - Coronavirus. Tesla does not publish monthly stats until the end of the quarter. You have to wait until then to see what the monthly sales are.

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6 minutes ago, snooter said:

Last i heard tesla is supplied by panasonic (battery)

 

Yes sir snooter, Tesla's U.S. Gigafactory 1 in Nevada is shared with Panasonic, which makes 21700 battery cells for Tesla vehicles assembled at Fremont. There are rumors that Model 3 assembled in China use LG Chem 21700 cells rather than Panasonic for its battery pack. https://insideevs.com/news/372449/rumor-lg-chem-started-cell-production-gigafactory-3/

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7 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

China - Coronavirus. Tesla does not publish monthly stats until the end of the quarter. You have to wait until then to see what the monthly sales are.

 

  7 months of global EV sales decrease. US and global electric sales decrease year over year, last year.  

Few want a car they have to live their life around. Hybrids will crush EV sales very soon. 

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7 hours ago, OX1 said:

Hybrids will crush EV sales very soon. 

 

Maybe in the very short term (next 1-5 years) as automakers scramble to meet tightened regulatory requirements for fuel economy globally. Longer term, ICE vehicle bans such as the one proposed in the U.K. will include hybrid and PHEV.  As such, hybrids are quickly becoming obsolete. The future of the automotive industry is all electric, all autonomous, with mobility services an integral part.

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13 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Maybe in the very short term (next 1-5 years) as automakers scramble to meet tightened regulatory requirements for fuel economy globally. Longer term, ICE vehicle bans such as the one proposed in the U.K. will include hybrid and PHEV.  As such, hybrids are quickly becoming obsolete. The future of the automotive industry is all electric, all autonomous, with mobility services an integral part.

nope....range anxiety will remain, as will charge times unless they can compete with stopping at a gas station and refueling. Hybrids and plug in Hybrids don't reflect those issues...let alone the issues with battery dis-posal...fact is the overall footprint of a pure electric vs an ICE isn't much different...contrary to what is being reported.

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5 hours ago, Deanh said:

nope....range anxiety will remain, as will charge times unless they can compete with stopping at a gas station and refueling. Hybrids and plug in Hybrids don't reflect those issues...let alone the issues with battery dis-posal...fact is the overall footprint of a pure electric vs an ICE isn't much different...contrary to what is being reported.

Just ignore those two.  They only repeat the same crap and google till they can find an article that backs up their comments..  or comments from the article so they come off like trying to know what they are talking about.

 

 

Still zero comments about my ski trip and how I would have been left stranded if I had a Tesla.

 

Inner cities sure..  but there are far too many country areas where this will still be a major problem for many many years to come.  If they think the infrastructure and power grid can handle a dominance of BEV across the country in the next 5 years, they are just plane crazy.

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11 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

Just ignore those two.  They only repeat the same crap and google till they can find an article that backs up their comments..  or comments from the article so they come off like trying to know what they are talking about.

 

 

Still zero comments about my ski trip and how I would have been left stranded if I had a Tesla.

 

Inner cities sure..  but there are far too many country areas where this will still be a major problem for many many years to come.  If they think the infrastructure and power grid can handle a dominance of BEV across the country in the next 5 years, they are just plane crazy.

its the Tesla derangement syndrome...I see inner cities as a fleet stranglehold for Ford electric commercial trucks and vans. I don't think Ill ever be sold on full electric...I do long trips and enjoy the convenience afforded by ICE vehicles...and its why I back plug ins and Hybrids as the best alternative full BEVs no. One question I do have though...as far as BEVs go...where does all the power come from and who pays for it...SOLAR , if you install it, is 10s of thousands of Dollars. Solar as far as electric companies go is but a small percentage, and becomes redundant in areas sun rationed. Wind?...what happens if there is none? and what a bloody eye sore let alone their effect on the wild life etc ....so that leaves Nuclear and Coal.....ironic to me as BEVs are at the head of Climate change hysteria...want to save the world, wear a bloody condom...less people means less consumption, less waste, and less pollution

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37 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

Just ignore those two.  They only repeat the same crap and google till they can find an article that backs up their comments..  or comments from the article so they come off like trying to know what they are talking about.

 

 

Still zero comments about my ski trip and how I would have been left stranded if I had a Tesla.

 

Inner cities sure..  but there are far too many country areas where this will still be a major problem for many many years to come.  If they think the infrastructure and power grid can handle a dominance of BEV across the country in the next 5 years, they are just plane crazy.

You must have missed mine on page three of this thread-

You don't understand the thought process of those who own EVs. They look for charging stations and will happily wait the half hour or so for a refuel.  Without the Tesla APP-it would be impossible for you to know if/and how far the charging stations were.  Yes-Tesla is going to hurt some automakers SUVs.

 

To repeat-for you to have knowledge of charging stations you need the Tesla APP.  And they can be hidden behind coffee shops, gas stations, rest stops, etc. They are out there.

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