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Virus could spell the end of mass transit and a boon to auto sales


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The Wuhan China virus is making airline companies re-examine how seating will be in the future.  Some are wondering if social distancing will require more space between seats. Taking this to its logical conclusion, airline fares will probably at least double so they can recover costs like fuel etc.and maintain revenue/profits.  When you consider buses, trains, subways, taxis, car pooling/ride sharing, if you have to have a certain distance between people, ground mass transit can not survive financially in my opinion.  Everybody will be in their own little bubble known as the automobile!  Time to buy stock in auto companies?  Maybe!

Edited by Joe771476
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The biggest issue with COVID-19 is the lack of an effective treatment for it...a vaccine is years away, if its even possible (AFAIK there are no vaccines for Coronavirises) 

 

Once there is an effective treatment for it, things will get back to "normal" (how ever you want to define it)

 

Short term I see this seriously curtailing AV efforts in the auto industry, due to the loss in sales (no money to research it) and resistance to getting into a vehicle in a situation like we have now.

 

Closest situation we've had like this is the Spanish Flu, and that was a 101 or so years ago...Maybe Polio outbreak of the 1950s? Its a possibility, but this happening regularly is pretty far fetched. 

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...And....Considering how many have lost their job, I don't see many rushing out to purchase vehicles... I mean they could...but I doubt many can truly afford it for long.  If anything, just read an article lately, that local governments and transit systems are now scrambling to see if the shortage of vehicles will have on the road, might pave the way for a more pedestrian type of urban infrastructure for more urbanized cities.

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Not to overly-generalize, but many who have lost their jobs are those who only buy used vehicles. 

 

No doubt new car sales will take a hit too, but LMC Automotive reports that new vehicle sales in April appear to be nowhere as bad as first feared.  Down “only” 43%, compared to the initial prediction of 80%.

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I think you are also going to see an expansion of people working from home due to this, so less need for mass transit, less need for extensive business travel, and less need for commuting into the cities.  Businesses will see that work can be completed just as well with people working remotely, so they can shed some office space and the cost of keeping employees onsite.  That change is currently taking place at my company, and we are looking at shedding a leased building by the end of 2020 (with no reduction in head count).  It's looking like I won't have a cube in the office anymore.  Before this, I was WFH 3-4 days/week.  After this, it appears WFH will be the norm and I won't have a dedicated place to sit in the office.  And I'm OK with that. :)

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42 minutes ago, fordmantpw said:

I think you are also going to see an expansion of people working from home due to this, so less need for mass transit, less need for extensive business travel, and less need for commuting into the cities.  Businesses will see that work can be completed just as well with people working remotely, so they can shed some office space and the cost of keeping employees onsite.  That change is currently taking place at my company, and we are looking at shedding a leased building by the end of 2020 (with no reduction in head count).  It's looking like I won't have a cube in the office anymore.  Before this, I was WFH 3-4 days/week.  After this, it appears WFH will be the norm and I won't have a dedicated place to sit in the office.  And I'm OK with that. :)

My thought exactly right from the beginning.  How many are saying...."let's see, this  x sq ft of office space costs us how much?  And how did  things go during the covid-19 episode?  I  can see all of a sudden shared cubes/desks where people will  be assigned  a particular day for their routine office visit.  Not sure how I  would  adapt to a steady diet of WFH, but when I look at commute times today for most cities, I say what a waste, another benefit.  

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With the price of cars (&CUVs, SUVs etc.) where they are, I do not see sales recovering to 2019 levels for several years. But I do see used car sales holding up, as many look for a more affordable option, as it will take several years for many to get back on their feet.

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9 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

My thought exactly right from the beginning.  How many are saying...."let's see, this  x sq ft of office space costs us how much?  And how did  things go during the covid-19 episode?  I  can see all of a sudden shared cubes/desks where people will  be assigned  a particular day for their routine office visit.  Not sure how I  would  adapt to a steady diet of WFH, but when I look at commute times today for most cities, I say what a waste, another benefit.  

 

One of my sisters is a good example of that. In normal times her 15 mile commute takes about an hour in non peak times. She can do her job better from home than she can from the cube farm with all of its distractions. She only really needs to go to the office once or twice a month.

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Several very good points, one of which I thought of later, but yes if they can afford a new car and, and if many don't end up all working from home, which I bet you're going to see.  What will that mean to the future rent money for these massive office building suites?   Will you see any NEW construction of buildings?  Also, if this social distancing thing is allowed to drag on through the rest of the year, how will this affect cruise ships, fall harvest fairs, movie theaters, concert arenas, theme parks....Christmas??!!.  I've been on a cruise ship and if you can't have a buffet, as silly as it sounds, that's half the enjoyment gone!  And I'm not sure you're going to see buffets anywhere very soon.  Plus they have shows on there, sitting around the pools, etc.  That experience will be gone!  I'm trying to figure out how the buffet franchise Golden Corral can have all you can eat take out!!???  If you keep thinking more and more about this, you can run into some very interesting scenarios!  By the way, why am I paying for gasoline??!!!!  It's somewhere between (-$25.00) to $0 per barrel and I'm still paying for it!  They should be paying me to pump it!!   Why does it always work one way?  If a barrel goes up a dollar, the pump price goes up the same day!  I know something else is going to pop up in my mind, but when it does, I'll post it here. I've already edited this post a two times!  

Edited by Joe771476
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43 minutes ago, Joe771476 said:

What will that mean to the future rent money for these massive office building suites?   Will you see any NEW construction of buildings? 

 

Yes sir, new construction in all segments (industrial, commercial, residential, government) will continue but of course specific project plans may be modified.

 

I think some members of this site affiliated with Ford said that Ford's project to re-build Michigan Central Station may be scaled back. 

Edited by rperez817
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1 minute ago, rperez817 said:

 

.....

 

I think some members of this site affiliated with Ford said that Ford's project to re-build Michigan Central Station may be scaled back. 

 

Who said that? I thought they were already all in on it, especially with the discounts/money from the state and local governments.

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15 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The biggest issue with COVID-19 is the lack of an effective treatment for it...a vaccine is years away, if its even possible (AFAIK there are no vaccines for Coronavirises) 

 

Once there is an effective treatment for it, things will get back to "normal" (how ever you want to define it)

 

Short term I see this seriously curtailing AV efforts in the auto industry, due to the loss in sales (no money to research it) and resistance to getting into a vehicle in a situation like we have now.

 

Closest situation we've had like this is the Spanish Flu, and that was a 101 or so years ago...Maybe Polio outbreak of the 1950s? Its a possibility, but this happening regularly is pretty far fetched. 

 

I'm hoping that this will put a kibosh to this self-driving/AV BS.  Perhaps the money saved on that fiasco can be used to bring a few more "gotta-have" products like a flagship Lincoln sedan and coupe and perhaps a RWD 4-door sedan for Ford. 

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26 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

 

Who said that? I thought they were already all in on it, especially with the discounts/money from the state and local governments.

 

I remember Ford Michigan Central Station project status was discussed briefly in the Bronco and Bronco Sport World Premier thread. 

 

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2 hours ago, Footballfan said:

 

I'm hoping that this will put a kibosh to this self-driving/AV BS.  Perhaps the money saved on that fiasco can be used to bring a few more "gotta-have" products like a flagship Lincoln sedan and coupe and perhaps a RWD 4-door sedan for Ford. 

 

I do think that AV projects have legs (wheels?) on pre-determined/set and repetitive routes and/or short loops in certain areas (think campus shuttles, some delivery services, etc.), but beyond that, i think there are far too many variables, at least for quite a while.

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59 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

I do think that AV projects have legs (wheels?) on pre-determined/set and repetitive routes and/or short loops in certain areas (think campus shuttles, some delivery services, etc.), but beyond that, i think there are far too many variables, at least for quite a while.

Especially when you realise that the main protagonists pushing AV were the likes of google who wanted everyone to stay on line and not watching the road.

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2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I do think that AV projects have legs (wheels?) on pre-determined/set and repetitive routes and/or short loops in certain areas (think campus shuttles, some delivery services, etc.), but beyond that, i think there are far too many variables, at least for quite a while.

 

Exactly.   And all that technology can serve as driver aids to increase safety (even without autopilot modes).

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55 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

Exactly.   And all that technology can serve as driver aids to increase safety (even without autopilot modes).

Even with improvements in driver aids, it seems like Ford’s big investment in autonomous vehicles is a poor decision. You know that the autonomous vehicles likely to be available in 10 years will as RMC mentioned, run on extremely controlled routes which will be limited in total scope. Those vehicles will be the ultimate commodity vehicles as companies will run them only if the low cost option (and just use conventional cars with drivers otherwise).So even if Ford does develop a successful autonomous vehicle, it will be under intense cost pressure. Hard to see an 8% return on this investment.

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Well when it's all said and done, we'e going to come out the losers anyway.  Instead of making the billionaires in this country each cut a check for $50 billion and sending it to the Treasury for dispersal to us,  the govt. instead is printing trillions of dollars and sending it to banks.  THAT is how you're getting your stimulus checks!  Then Buffet, Bezos, Musk,  Gates will buy up all the cheap stock.  Then due to inflation, your money will be worth only 80% of what it was, and the billionaires will get richer why you and I get poorer!   Founder Henry Ford said back in the early 1900's that if the American people knew how the banking system works in this country, there'd be a revolt.   We the middle class are the slaves here.  Make no mistake about it!

Edited by Joe771476
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On 4/23/2020 at 7:14 PM, silvrsvt said:

Short term I see this seriously curtailing AV efforts in the auto industry, due to the loss in sales (no money to research it)

 

20 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

Even with improvements in driver aids, it seems like Ford’s big investment in autonomous vehicles is a poor decision. 

 

Ford and other automakers are in a challenging situation. They know that investment in autonomous vehicles is a must to stay relevant in the future. And the Covid-19 situation makes the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles more apparent than before. But organizational politics at automakers may get tense. Managers leading AV projects may have to fight with managers in other departments to get the funding they need amid lower revenue and earnings. It's possible that execs at automakers mistakenly think their AV projects are now a distraction or a luxury and end up cutting investment in them.  

 

The independent companies that focus solely on autonomous vehicle technology don't have this problem. Waymo in particular is in a strong position. Maybe Waymo will end up acquiring some of the smaller AV focused companies and widen their lead even more. Maybe Ford will end up being a future supplier to Waymo, like FCA and JLR are now.

Edited by rperez817
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What problem again does autonomous vehicles solve?  Traffic? So instead of a bus or a traditional taxi, you can take an AV-Taxi?  But we already have buses, and taxis, and even uber now, so what exactly does an AV bring to the table?

So you don't have to sit on a bus with other people? Okay but we already have taxis, and uber.  So maybe you just want to sit in a car by yourself and you can't afford your own car or you live in NY and that's not practical... so you hail an AV, but what really does that offer that is so much better than a taxi? Is it worth all the technological cost and risks just to avoid dealing with a human driver?  Maybe you say it's more sanitary.. but you're still getting into a car that countless dirty humans have already rode in, touched everything, coughed on, wiped their boogers on...

 

Gosh maybe someone can help me understand this but I just DON'T get the AV hype... I don't see a need for this technology, outside of maybe replacing long-haul truckers.
 

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10 hours ago, probowler said:

What problem again does autonomous vehicles solve?  Traffic? So instead of a bus or a traditional taxi, you can take an AV-Taxi?  But we already have buses, and taxis, and even uber now, so what exactly does an AV bring to the table?

So you don't have to sit on a bus with other people? Okay but we already have taxis, and uber.  So maybe you just want to sit in a car by yourself and you can't afford your own car or you live in NY and that's not practical... so you hail an AV, but what really does that offer that is so much better than a taxi? Is it worth all the technological cost and risks just to avoid dealing with a human driver?  Maybe you say it's more sanitary.. but you're still getting into a car that countless dirty humans have already rode in, touched everything, coughed on, wiped their boogers on...

 

Gosh maybe someone can help me understand this but I just DON'T get the AV hype... I don't see a need for this technology, outside of maybe replacing long-haul truckers.
 

I agree with you 100 percent.  AVs are far less sanitary than taxis or busses.  Passengers will be less likely to trash, leave garbage inside of, or do other things (I will not mention, but we can imagine) if there is a human driver on board.  Look at COVID 19.  If AVs were a prominent part of transportation today, how many times would passengers come in and out of an AV is a given day before it was properly cleaned?  

 

I don't understand this either- especially when companies like GM (an unfortunately Ford to an extent)- are mortgaging their future on technology that most people have absolutely no interest in at the expense of today's product.  It is like the line from I believe PT Barnum- "the bigger the lie, the more people who will believe it."  I think that people at Ford and GM saw the little Google POSmobile pod of ten years ago and panicked and dove feet first into the AV morass as opposed to concentrating on their core product and striving to offer the customer the best "gotta have" vehicles that can possibly be made. 

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10 hours ago, probowler said:

What problem again does autonomous vehicles solve? 

 

The biggest problem autonomous vehicles have the potential to solve is road safety, but there are others too. Here is what Self Driving Safety Coalition (Ford, Lyft, Uber, Volvo Cars, Waymo, Argo AI, Aurora, and Nuro) says. https://www.selfdrivingcoalition.org/about

 

Quote

"The U.S. Department of Transportation has projected that fully self-driving vehicles could significantly reduce the severity and frequency of crashes and fatalities. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), there were more than 37,000 fatalities on America’s roads in 2017. An estimated 94% of road accidents are caused by human error, and motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among young people, aged 15-29 years.

Self-driving technology has the great potential to improve public safety, enhance mobility for the elderly and disabled, reduce traffic congestion, improve environmental quality and advance transportation efficiency."

Edited by rperez817
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