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Virus could spell the end of mass transit and a boon to auto sales


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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

The biggest problem autonomous vehicles have the potential to solve is road safety, but there are others too. Here is what Self Driving Safety Coalition (Ford, Lyft, Uber, Volvo Cars, Waymo, Argo AI, Aurora, and Nuro) says. https://www.selfdrivingcoalition.org/about

 

 

Perhaps better driver education would help instead.

 

Not the current "can you turn the wheel and push the pedals?  Here's your license" test requirements.

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1 minute ago, rmc523 said:

 

Perhaps better driver education would help instead.

The costs of doing that would be prohibitive to the states, so it would be a non starter. 
 

People still make stupid decisions...I guess I’m of the mindset that you’ll never have a zero sum game of no losses due to car accidents or what not, without making everything so prohibitive for people to actually drive. 

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If parking weren't 300 month in downtown Chicago, I would drive to work.  It would take me about 45 minutes. Public transit for me takes an hour and costs 100/month. I really have no interest in taking public transit to work anymore, until all the covid 19 dust is settled. For me it would probably cost an additional 300 month (with gas) and then the added wear and tear. It's on my radar but working from home is all I am doing now.

 

I was on a call on Friday and many of my colleagues are saying the same thing. Nobody wants to get on a train or bus. One guy is eyeing a Civic right now just in case. My company is being pretty cool about this now as the earliest they would let staff into our office is mid June. They keep saying that they will not force us back into the office. It's clear they don't want our blood on their hands if someone where to get it and die from riding public transit into work. I can assure you, that right up until the city shut down the rush hour trains were packed (seated and standing) people coughing and sneezing like crazy. In the best of times, the trains are barely acceptable in terms of cleanliness.

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On 4/24/2020 at 8:13 AM, Footballfan said:

 

I'm hoping that this will put a kibosh to this self-driving/AV BS.  Perhaps the money saved on that fiasco can be used to bring a few more "gotta-have" products like a flagship Lincoln sedan and coupe and perhaps a RWD 4-door sedan for Ford. 

 

Yes Please give me us RWD 4 DR Sedan for Lincoln!!!! or a RWD Lincoln Coupe version of the Mustang Architecture ?.

Edited by TakeshiJin
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10 minutes ago, ausrutherford said:

If anything it is going to increase the use of mass transit since people are losing their jobs.

 

Mass transit is the cheapest way to get around.

 

If its actually available to use. Normally (looking at it from someone in my state) areas that have mass transit are built up and to live close to NYC already costs big money. If you live further away, you have two options to take to NYC-train or bus. Both can be expensive, but if you have a local job, it might not pay as much, but nor are you on a bus/train for 4 hours a day getting to NYC. Plus there are very little mass transit options to use locally-so your stuck with a car/taxi/uber.  

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13 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

Mass transit is the cheapest way to get around.

 

Yes sir, low prices for patrons is the biggest advantage of public transit over other modes of transportation. Some transit agencies aren't collecting fares at all as a protective measure during this Covid-19 situation. For example, rides on Trinity Metro buses and TEXRail are "free" for customers until May 15.  

 

But service quality for public transit is generally low too. Pros/cons of some transportation modes.

 

Public mass transit (buses & trains)

Pros:

  • Inexpensive for customer
  • Typically high volume & utilization of vehicles (varies by urban area, though)

Cons:

  • Generally low quality
  • Constraints on service territory
  • Corruption at transit agencies

Ride hailing with human drivers (current Uber, Lyft system)

Pros:

  • Convenient
  • Higher quality than public transit
  • Typically high volume & utilization of vehicles (varies by urban area, though)

Cons:

  • Expensive for customer
  • Criminal activity by driver contractors

Individual automobile ownership

Pros:

  • Higher quality than public transit
  • Allows ad-hoc travel easily

Cons:

  • Expensive for customer
  • Very low utilization of vehicles

 

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20 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

If anything it is going to increase the use of mass transit since people are losing their jobs.

 

Mass transit is the cheapest way to get around.

 

But if you don't have to go to work you won't be needing mass transit very much either.

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7 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir, low prices for patrons is the biggest advantage of public transit over other modes of transportation. Some transit agencies aren't collecting fares at all as a protective measure during this Covid-19 situation. For example, rides on Trinity Metro buses and TEXRail are "free" for customers until May 15.  

 

But service quality for public transit is generally low too. Pros/cons of some transportation modes.

 

 

I don't disagree with the listed pros and cons except it leaves off a pro for Mass Transit, particularly rail, and that is Less Stress/Avoidance of Traffic.   I am not good with traffic it annoys me. And it causes a commute to vary in time daily making planning more difficult.   Not to mention being on a train allows one to read, text or even watch videos during the commute. 

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On 4/25/2020 at 1:49 PM, rperez817 said:

 

 

Ford and other automakers are in a challenging situation. They know that investment in autonomous vehicles is a must to stay relevant in the future. And the Covid-19 situation makes the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles more apparent than before. But organizational politics at automakers may get tense. Managers leading AV projects may have to fight with managers in other departments to get the funding they need amid lower revenue and earnings. It's possible that execs at automakers mistakenly think their AV projects are now a distraction or a luxury and end up cutting investment in them.  

 

The independent companies that focus solely on autonomous vehicle technology don't have this problem. Waymo in particular is in a strong position. Maybe Waymo will end up acquiring some of the smaller AV focused companies and widen their lead even more. Maybe Ford will end up being a future supplier to Waymo, like FCA and JLR are now.

 

If you have twenty minutes, listen to this most interesting discussion with Automotive News editor, Jason Stein, and Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas.  They talk about AV's, EV's, Ford, the industry in general and the future of dealers.  Ford content at about the 14:30 mark.  

 

https://www.autonews.com/weekend-drive-podcast/daily-drive-podcast-april-27-2020-adam-jonas-risk-zombie-industry?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_term=automotive news&utm_content=715e3c41-6d58-4635-9b76-4ca639a06c99

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6 hours ago, Fordowner said:

 

I don't disagree with the listed pros and cons except it leaves off a pro for Mass Transit, particularly rail, and that is Less Stress/Avoidance of Traffic.   I am not good with traffic it annoys me. And it causes a commute to vary in time daily making planning more difficult.   Not to mention being on a train allows one to read, text or even watch videos during the commute. 

 

I would much rather sit in my own car in traffic than ride mass transit.

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On 4/26/2020 at 12:51 PM, rperez817 said:

 

The biggest problem autonomous vehicles have the potential to solve is road safety, but there are others too. Here is what Self Driving Safety Coalition (Ford, Lyft, Uber, Volvo Cars, Waymo, Argo AI, Aurora, and Nuro) says. https://www.selfdrivingcoalition.org/about

 

 

The Self-Driving Coalition is self-serving.  The bottom line is just that- the bottom line.  In reality, these companies could care less about deaths on the highway.  It is all about the $$$$$.  

 

Yes, accidents are caused by human error.  But you cannot christen a speculative technology more safe until there is a 50-50 mix of AVs and traditional vehicles.  All it takes is one good cyberattack or other hiccups and hundreds- if not thousands of people- could die or be injured within seconds.

 

Regarding AVs helping the elderly, many of the elderly that cannot drive any longer also is not too tech savvy.  Even if they were, what adult caretaker would put their 85 year old mom in a drone to be dropped off to the doctors office with the possibility of no assistance when the destination is reached? 

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I will say, one possible use of this technology could be allowing people with disabilities to own and "drive" vehicles without needing special modifications to their vehicles.

That said though, I would bet we're closer to being able to control a vehicle hands-free with a brain-computer interface rather than a safe reliable, and mainstream AV solution.

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18 hours ago, Fordowner said:

pro for Mass Transit, particularly rail, and that is Less Stress/Avoidance of Traffic.   I am not good with traffic it annoys me. And it causes a commute to vary in time daily making planning more difficult.   Not to mention being on a train allows one to read, text or even watch videos during the commute. 

 

11 hours ago, AGR said:

I would much rather sit in my own car in traffic than ride mass transit.

 

A high quality autonomous vehicle/robotaxi service has potential to offer customers the benefit of not having to deal directly with traffic congestion as Fordowner mentioned, while at the same time providing a much better customer experience compared to mass transit today, addressing AGR's concern.

 

Ford has a lot of opportunity here. Jim Farley mentioned "Enhanced Customer Experience" as a key part of Ford's strategy for its owned & operated AV fleet.

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Edited by rperez817
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8 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

 

A high quality autonomous vehicle/robotaxi service has potential to offer customers the benefit of not having to deal directly with traffic congestion as Fordowner mentioned, while at the same time providing a much better customer experience compared to mass transit today, addressing AGR's concern.

 

 

My concern is how much of this is trying to push a string along...there isn't a viable business case (in most cases) for things like this. 

 

To me this reaks alot of the dot com boom/bust cycle where an IT hardware or software manufacture promises the next big thing to push their stock value and when it comes out, its barely an improvement of what is on the market. 

 

So with that said, this is more about trying to improve stock pricing using IT business cycle for manufacturing. Which is going to end badly. 

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32 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

My concern is how much of this is trying to push a string along...there isn't a viable business case (in most cases) for things like this. 

 

The societal need for wide scale deployment of AV exists now. Just the road safety aspect alone is a very big deal. Around the world, more people were killed in traffic accidents caused by human error than by Covid-19 since the time Covid-19 was first identified.

 

Lots of business opportunities are out there when it comes to AV products and services. It's up to companies big and small to figure out viable business cases. The ones that succeed may be rewarded by improved stock price or other company valuation. But stock price isn't the reason why businesses involved with AV technology are doing that kind of work. AV work is much more long term than that. 

Edited by rperez817
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6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

The societal need for wide scale deployment of AV exists now. Just the road safety aspect alone is a very big deal. Around the world, more people were killed in traffic accidents caused by human error than by Covid-19 since the time Covid-19 was first identified.

 

Are you fucking kidding me? Are you using a virus to prove your point? I'll play the math game with you:

Total car accident related deaths in 2019 in NJ: 563

 

Total COVID-19 deaths in New Jersey as of April 27th: 6,044

 

There are alot more people driving (well used to be) then exposed to the virus. 

 

The thing is that your NOT going to completely eliminate deaths in accidents and the use of AVs are going to come with their own costs to society that might just outweigh their usefulness to the general public.  Your basically telling people to give up there "freedom" to make society a better place. There is no "stick" for force people to go that route. Its going to take at least 2-3 generations of people to make them want to do this. 

 

Cars are still status symbols for the foreseeable future...i don't see that changing for another 30-40 years...maybe by then we might have AVs. 

 

The whole thing is overplayed, much like tech sector for the past 10 years or so.

 

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You know why AVs won't be mainstream for a long, long time?

 

you can't rely on just the car to guide itself and account for EVERY SINGLE VARIABLE and react according to it, it's just not going to happen no matter how much programming you do and how great that programming is.

 

There also needs to be reasonable tech in our infrastructure to assist all of these future AVs in navigating the roads. We can't even get the government to fix the goddamn infrastructure as it exists currently, how in the hell does any reasonable person expect the government to invest in new AV assist technology? How the hell is it going to be paid for? Questions that cannot be answered. 

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Adam Jonas, analyst for Morgan Stanley, had an interesting observation.  With the industry shut down and all manufacturers losing big-time money, he expects AV development to get shifted to the back burner and in some cases, quietly dropped.  Basically, AV's are a long-term strategy that nobody can afford to spend money on right now.  There are more pressing matters to spend their ever-dwindling resources on.

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11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

A high quality autonomous vehicle/robotaxi service has potential to offer customers the benefit of not having to deal directly with traffic congestion as Fordowner mentioned, while at the same time providing a much better customer experience compared to mass transit today, addressing AGR's concern.

 

 

That may well be true - though as mackinaw noted the date we have that, AVs, has been pushed further into the future than it is now.   In the meantime,  for the next 20 years it is cars or transit in heavily congested areas.  So There will be people like me and people like AGR. Some deal with traffic better and some prefer transit.  

 

 But look at Georgia - we are dealing with congestion by building HOT lanes and now a one way trip down down 85 through Gwinnett  before the pandemic was  regularly exceeding $7 for 16 miles because of the traffic and delays in the other 5 or 6 lanes and it was hitting the teens    .    https://www.ajc.com/news/traffic/new-record-for-hot-lane-toll/Inw3QaFWdfkVLNrOebljkO/    If growth continues metro areas like Atlanta and its surrounding communities will have no choice but to make better use of the capacity of a traffic lane via AV's.    

Edited by Fordowner
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1 hour ago, Fordowner said:

 

That may well be true - though as mackinaw noted the date we have that, AVs, has been pushed further into the future than it is now.   In the meantime,  for the next 20 years it is cars or transit in heavily congested areas.  So There will be people like me and people like AGR. Some deal with traffic better and some prefer transit.  

 

 But look at Georgia - we are dealing with congestion by building HOT lanes and now a one way trip down down 85 through Gwinnett  before the pandemic was  regularly exceeding $7 for 16 miles because of the traffic and delays in the other 5 or 6 lanes and it was hitting the teens    .    https://www.ajc.com/news/traffic/new-record-for-hot-lane-toll/Inw3QaFWdfkVLNrOebljkO/    If growth continues metro areas like Atlanta and its surrounding communities will have no choice but to make better use of the capacity of a traffic lane via AV's.    


Stop putting so many businesses downtown - spread it out.  Going to a concert at Gwinnett arena or Alpharetta is a breeze compared to downtown.

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10 hours ago, akirby said:

Stop putting so many businesses downtown - spread it out.

 

The spread it out or sprawl approach to urban development is very common in the U.S. and other parts of the world. In the DFW Metroplex, there are multiple business/commercial districts in suburban areas. Some like Las Colinas in Irving and Legacy in Plano have almost as much commercial/office space as the central business district in downtown Dallas, and more than downtown Fort Worth.

 

This approach to development makes designing an effective mass transit system very difficult and encourages dependence on automobiles.

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33 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

This approach to development makes designing an effective mass transit system very difficult and encourages dependence on automobiles.


Mass transit is the solution to putting too many businesses too close together in the first place.  Invest  the billions you save not building trains into improving roads and access in these outlying areas and switch folks to BEVs and PHEVs for commuting along with shuttle buses - that solves all the problems.

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