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Rivian Based Lincoln EV Cancelled


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On 4/29/2020 at 7:55 AM, silvrsvt said:

 

Cheaper to reskin the Mach E or they are talking about the BEV CUV mid sizer which might just be a 3 row Mach E anyways. 

 

23 hours ago, akirby said:


This.  They were already working on that without Rivian.  It’s not worth building a large Bev platform on your own just for a few thousand units a year even if it is an expensive flagship.  There may have also been resource issues on the Rivian side.  It could change next year.

 

Remember that the joint project with Rivian was only one of the two Lincoln all-electrics planned for the next couple of years. The other is a mid-sized electric which, together with a Ford cousin, would be internally designed and developed (something that is well underway) and produced, building on the second generation of battery electric technology first unveiled in the Mustang Mach-E. So it won't be a reskinned MME. It might not be the large (and very expensive) flagship Lincoln envisioned in the Rivian-derived product, something that was rumored to be a replacement for the Continental, but the unveiling and release of this new mid-sized Lincoln electric was planned for the near future -- not more than a year or two away. Of course, with what's going on, things might get a little delayed, but I don't see this one getting cancelled as it represents the FMC electric future.

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5 hours ago, Willwll313wll said:

Does anyone have any inside info on this? 

Is COVID the actual reason?

Any chance that it'll get rebooted?

 

Ford losing their shirts with everything going on is the most likely reason. It makes no sense to put $$$ into a product that would be lucky to sell 2-5K units a year, with the expected price point it had. It was low lying fruit to save money short term.

 

It would be a Flagship/vanity project for Lincoln

 

Once we get back to "normal" I would expect something to come out of the JV they have with them. I don't think Rivian is in bad shape at all...they've been more or less the polar opposite of Tesla and have strong backers. They just need to get product out the gate. 

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On 4/29/2020 at 12:11 PM, mackinaw said:

Remember that Ford pumped $500 million dollars into Rivian, so they will want something back on that investment at some point. 

 

Not "pumped" into the company, but more like the latter...an investment. For their investment, they also get proprietary access to software and other tech. Remember the video of the plant tour and there was a half dissembled F150 sitting in the background?  

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On 4/30/2020 at 12:36 PM, silvrsvt said:

Once we get back to "normal" I would expect something to come out of the JV they have with them. I don't think Rivian is in bad shape at all...they've been more or less the polar opposite of Tesla and have strong backers. They just need to get product out the gate. 


The other things Rivian has going for them too is they’re not touting incredibly lofty goals and expectations like Tesla does and they’re actually working with the industry to learn how to do things rather than being stubborn, shutting everyone out and making expensive mistakes. 

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17 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


The other things Rivian has going for them too is they’re not touting incredibly lofty goals and expectations like Tesla does and they’re actually working with the industry to learn how to do things rather than being stubborn, shutting everyone out and making expensive mistakes. 

 

It's the incumbent automakers that are "being stubborn, shutting everyone out and making expensive mistakes". Tesla and Rivian by contrast don't have to deal with ICE era baggage and are much more open to new ideas and approaches about how to design, build, and market BEV.

 

There's no "walled garden" at Tesla or Rivian.

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2 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

It's the incumbent automakers that are "being stubborn, shutting everyone out and making expensive mistakes". Tesla and Rivian by contrast don't have to deal with ICE era baggage and are much more open to new ideas and approaches about how to design, build, and market BEV.

 

There's no "walled garden" at Tesla or Rivian.

 

There is also no sustained profit at Tesla or Rivian yet either.  And that's the big difference that you and others don't seem to understand.   Ford and other mainstream mfrs don't have investor's monopoly money or credits to survive on - they actually need to make a profit today.     Why would any sane business leader take resources away from profitable vehicles that consumers want to buy and invest heavily in a market that still has limited appeal and a limited market over the next 5 years?   Ford's approach is smart - build vehicles that are appealing for both personal and commercial use including existing vehicles like F150 and Transit.  But don't kill current profits and cash cows to do it.

 

What you perceive is being stubborn is actually leaders being fiscally responsible.   Something TESLA worshippers wouldn't understand.

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39 minutes ago, akirby said:

There is also no sustained profit at Tesla or Rivian yet either.  And that's the big difference that you and others don't seem to understand. 

 

Tesla has proven they can build BEV profitably. Teardown cost analysis by Munro and Associates indicates that Tesla Model 3 is the most profitable BEV model in the world. Rivian is a privately held company, they don't release their financials to the public. Also, Rivian's R1T and R1S won't enter production until late 2020.

 

Long term, the incumbent automakers will have to figure out how to compete in an industry that will be 100% electric. Maybe those incumbents can figure out how to do so on their own. If not, they'll have to consider partnerships with companies like Tesla and Rivian. Both of those companies either have such partnerships now, like Ford & Rivian, or had them in the past, like Toyota & Tesla. 

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1 minute ago, rperez817 said:

 

Tesla has proven they can build BEV profitably. Teardown cost analysis by Munro and Associates indicates that Tesla Model 3 is the most profitable BEV model in the world.

 

You still don't understand the difference between gross profit and net profit.   Gross profit is meaningless if you can't turn a net profit at some point.   And the only way Tesla can turn a net profit is still by selling energy credits (smoke and mirrors).

 

To put it in terms you can understand - let's say the cost of labor and materials for landscapers is $200/day but you get $300 revenue.  That's $100 gross profit.   But your vehicle cost, gas, insurance, office overhead including management salary is $110/day.   You didn't make $100 - you lost $10.

 

2 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Long term, the incumbent automakers will have to figure out how to compete in an industry that will be 100% electric.

 

True but you think long term is 5 years.  You'll be lucky to see more than 35% BEVs in 5 years and it will take a long time to get to 100% electric.

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

It's the incumbent automakers that are "being stubborn, shutting everyone out and making expensive mistakes". Tesla and Rivian by contrast don't have to deal with ICE era baggage and are much more open to new ideas and approaches about how to design, build, and market BEV.

 

There's no "walled garden" at Tesla or Rivian.


Really now? Then explain the close collaboration with Ford and Rivian. It was almost GM until Ford came in with a better deal. 
 

Tesla, meanwhile, is built entirely on the massively overinflated ego of Elon Musk. He's like a toddler that insists on doing things his own way. 

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31 minutes ago, akirby said:

True but you think long term is 5 years.  You'll be lucky to see more than 35% BEVs in 5 years and it will take a long time to get to 100% electric.

 

Mr. Perez has already said he expects BEV's to account for 100% of all sales by 2040.

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36 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Really now? Then explain the close collaboration with Ford and Rivian. It was almost GM until Ford came in with a better deal. 

 

Ford needs Rivian's expertise a lot more than the other way around. Have to give credit to Ford for taking BEV development more seriously in recent years, and for pursuing this partnership. 

 

Historically though, incumbent automakers' efforts with BEV were mostly about regulatory compliance, rather than technical excellence or customer appeal.

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11 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Historically though, incumbent automakers' efforts with BEV were mostly about regulatory compliance, rather than technical excellence or customer appeal.

 

Real businesses can't afford to do things just for technical excellence or customer appeal if they can't make a profit.  Do you not understand this or are you just being hard headed?

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Just now, mackinaw said:

 

You need to explain this.  

 

Yes sir mackinaw, no problem. Rivian's expertise is in these areas.

  • BEV optimized chassis design (skateboard platform, suspension, etc)
  • System integration
  • Data science
  • Level 3 autonomy

All of these complement Ford's in-house efforts.

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14 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Ford needs Rivian's expertise a lot more than the other way around. Have to give credit to Ford for taking BEV development more seriously in recent years, and for pursuing this partnership.

 

Once again you completely discount Ford's experience with mass production, regulatory compliance, crash testing, parts supply, marketing and a dozen other things it takes to mass produce and sell vehicles profitably.

 

There is nothing Rivian is doing that Ford couldn't do given enough time.  But that takes resources that Ford needs for other things so partnering with them to get access to those things faster and without losing Ford resources is just smart business.  

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5 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Yes sir mackinaw, no problem. Rivian's expertise is in these areas.

  • BEV optimized chassis design (skateboard platform, suspension, etc)
  • System integration
  • Data science
  • Level 3 autonomy

All of these complement Ford's in-house efforts.

 

Right now, Rivian is nothing more than vaporware.  They have yet to produce and sell any BEV’s.  Their factory, at this point, isn’t even capable of making vehicles.

 

Ford has engineered, manufactured and sold BEV’s (the electric Focus).  The have extensive knowledge in engineering, manufacturing and selling hybrids.  They know and understand EV’s and batteries.

 

That being said, I like Rivian.  The CEO understands that making vehicles is hard and is not afraid to admit so (unlike Mr. Ego in California).  I look forward to seeing what the Ford/Rivian come up with. 

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27 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

Ford has engineered, manufactured and sold BEV’s (the electric Focus).  


The Focus BEV really isn't a fair use here, the power train and battery System was 100% Bosch engineering. Ford really didn't have much to do with it other than calibrating it for the Focus body. 
 

Mach-E looks very promising though. I'm very curious to try and get a test drive in one. I need to get a job as a reviewer ?

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6 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

The Focus BEV really isn't a fair use here, the power train and battery System was 100% Bosch engineering. Ford really didn't have much to do with it other than calibrating it for the Focus body. 

 

Yeah, I heard this before, but Ford engineers worked with Bosch engineers on this and Ford learned what goes into building a BEV.  My one Ford contact who worked in EV's (unfortunately, now retired) said they learned a lot with the Focus EV.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

What could a startup possibly offer that would be considered "expertise"? 

 

Some examples are in my reply to mackinaw. Overall, the most important "expertise" a startup like Rivian can offer an incumbent automaker like Ford is formulating new business strategies and approaches. There's a lot of organizational inertia at all the incumbent automakers, as they keep doing things the old way. Ford is among the worst. Jim Hackett said a few months ago "I don’t think this company can keep straddling the old and new worlds forever ... This company has to change"

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1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Yeah, I heard this before, but Ford engineers worked with Bosch engineers on this and Ford learned what goes into building a BEV.  My one Ford contact who worked in EV's (unfortunately, now retired) said they learned a lot with the Focus EV.

 

 


I'm not saying they didn't learn a lot from it, far from it. It paved the way for the Mach-E platform. Ford engineers get too much credit for Focus BEV, they were only there for support and to optimize it for the Focus body. 

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