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Ford may lose 5 BILLION dollars in the 2nd Quarter


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On 4/28/2020 at 4:42 PM, ausrutherford said:

I'm sure they will. Not only will a lack of production cost them, but restarting production will also cost a lot more: extra safety equipment, figuring out the supply system, etc, etc.

 

Just imagine how much Toyota, VW, Daimler, and other bigger firms are losing. 

 

 

Doesn't Toyota have like $36 BILLION in cash reserves?  And VW like 19 BILLION?  Ford won't file bankruptcy-but there will be a merger/acquisition....it's coming (within 5 years-probably less).

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1 hour ago, CKNSLS said:

Doesn't Toyota have like $36 BILLION in cash reserves?  And VW like 19 BILLION?  Ford won't file bankruptcy-but there will be a merger/acquisition....it's coming (within 5 years-probably less).

 

Read this:

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2020/04/29/course-talk-ford-turns-negative-covid-19-bites/3050425001/

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20 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

Ironically enough-the articles touches on both indirectly-and a little more direct about the Ford's family control-which ultimately will lead to their demise-look at some of the mistakes in hiring leaders they have made.  

Edited by CKNSLS
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If the worse happens, and the virus prevents auto production from resuming this year, GM will run out money by October, Ford and Tesla by December*.  At this point they'll all merge together and form a new "American Motors," and your prophesy will come true.

 

*money estimates from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

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13 hours ago, CKNSLS said:

 

 

Doesn't Toyota have like $36 BILLION in cash reserves?  And VW like 19 BILLION?  Ford won't file bankruptcy-but there will be a merger/acquisition....it's coming (within 5 years-probably less).

Ford now has over $30 billion in cash reserves too after exercising its revolving line of credit.

 

Might be best to hold off on that prediction of Ford’s demise. The Ford family is the whole reason the company won’t go chapter 10 ever.

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3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford now has over $30 billion in cash reserves too after exercising its revolving line of credit.

 

Might be best to hold off on that prediction of Ford’s demise. The Ford family is the whole reason the company won’t go chapter 10 ever.

 

Bill Ford would have his Mom sell the Lions, sell all their collective investments in other businesses and real estate, just to invest the money in the company before it would happen.

 

Im sure a few other members would do the same.

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8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford now has over $30 billion in cash reserves too after exercising its revolving line of credit.

 

Might be best to hold off on that prediction of Ford’s demise. The Ford family is the whole reason the company won’t go chapter 10 ever.

I'm going to take a wild guess here and say Toyota's cash (and/or cash equivalents-or at least most of it) is not borrowed (or ready to be borrowed).

 

Not sure about VW. You can't borrow your way to prosperity-long term.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-07/toyota-has-record-36-6-billion-in-cash-after-dumping-securities

 

Edited by CKNSLS
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Ford and GM mobilized to help the country by providing equipment for the WuFlu  - but somehow Toyota and Honda will be the ones that come out smelling like roses.

 

Over the years on this forum, all the arguments about volume vs profit.  Somehow Toyota does volume and profit just fine, so they are in the best position to come out on top when this thing is over.

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20 hours ago, mackinaw said:

If the worse happens, and the virus prevents auto production from resuming this year, GM will run out money by October, Ford and Tesla by December*.  At this point they'll all merge together and form a new "American Motors," and your prophesy will come true.

 

*money estimates from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

 

I've been hearing on financial podcasts etc over the past year that Deutsche Bank isn't exactly the picture of financial health.  Word on the streets is, they have been continuously propped up and bailed out for some time now.

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3 hours ago, CKNSLS said:

I'm going to take a wild guess here and say Toyota's cash (and/or cash equivalents-or at least most of it) is not borrowed (or ready to be borrowed).

 

Not sure about VW. You can't borrow your way to prosperity-long term.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-07/toyota-has-record-36-6-billion-in-cash-after-dumping-securities

 

The point here is liquidity in these times is vital, it’s the reason why  GM fell over in the GFC, Ford on the other hand mortgaged everything to survive. It’s  a similar situation at the moment but nowhere near as bad because Ford already has an efficient manufacturing base with forward looking products in the pipeline.


The alliance with VE becomes more important for Ford’s Europe, ROW and maybe China’s future needs. The symbiotic nature of the alliance equals guaranteed income for Ford’s commercial vehicle plants and low cost delivery of VW based passenger vehicles.

 

VW may we’ll have $19 billion cash in hand but spread across so many captive brands, the losses will  be much greater each quarter than Ford but yes, VW will survive, the German government will back stop it if needed.

 

lf history has proved one thing, it’s that Ford does it’s best planning when it’s back is against the wall and making predictions of imminent failure are premature as most plants will be Bach to work in the coming months and no doubt, governments will add stimulus packages to help restart their economies.

Edited by jpd80
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43 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The point here is liquidity in these times is vital, it’s the reason why  GM fell over in the GFC, Ford on the other hand mortgaged everything to survive. It’s  a similar situation at the moment but nowhere near as bad because Ford already has an efficient manufacturing base with forward looking products in the pipeline.


The alliance with VE becomes more important for Ford’s Europe, ROW and maybe China’s future needs. The symbiotic nature of the alliance equals guaranteed income for Ford’s commercial vehicle plants and low cost delivery of VW based passenger vehicles.

 

VW may we’ll have $19 billion cash in hand but spread across so many captive brands, the losses will  be much greater each quarter than Ford but yes, VW will survive, the German government will back stop it if needed.

 

lf history has proved one thing, it’s that Ford does it’s best planning when it’s back is against the wall and making predictions of imminent failure are premature as most plants will be Bach to work in the coming months and no doubt, governments will add stimulus packages to help restart their economies.

 

That's part of the point-where is the money coming from is the other. You can borrow it (Ford) or you can draw it out of your rainy day fund (Toyota).  But we can agree-the government will be along to help-somehow.

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3 hours ago, CKNSLS said:

 

That's part of the point-where is the money coming from is the other. You can borrow it (Ford) or you can draw it out of your rainy day fund (Toyota).  But we can agree-the government will be along to help-somehow.

The important point is to stay liquid until restrictions are lifted, this is not like permanent economic collapse.

The reason that Ford no longer has Fields $30 billion war chest is because Hackett invested heavily in future

products and rescuing Ford Europe, those two things are major spends that won't need repeating.

 

I'd imagine that VW is experiencing even bigger quarterly losses than Ford so now alliance makes even more

sense to both partners but  I doubt that it will go beyond that.

Edited by jpd80
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43 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Funny thing is, this is what Fields was planning for. It was just 2 years late from his prediction.

 

 

 

Going back to the election of 2016-there was a full on expectation of recession hitting afterwards at the time...that didn't materialize til just now. 

 

The big unknown is what is going to be the lingering effects of this shutdown is going to be. We might be in a full recovery this time next year. Which would be very good for Ford because of the Bronco, Bronco Sport and F-150 all should be on the lots waiting to be bought. 

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Ford is cancelling it's plan to build the Rivian based SUV, it is now working on a different Rivian based vehicle for Lincoln.

Ford hasn't released details of what that may entail.....I wonder if other BEV plans are going to go backwards,

especially if the market is now less interested in high priced BEVs that are not Tesla....

Edited by jpd80
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2 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Comparing Ford to GM, Ford currently has around $36B in cash to GM's $20B, but Ford is carrying $186B debt to GM's $104B debt.  

The debt shouldn't really affect Ford or GM unless it comes due before the plants reopen and sales recover.

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7 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Comparing Ford to GM, Ford currently has around $36B in cash to GM's $20B, but Ford is carrying $186B debt to GM's $104B debt.  

You're counting the debt of financed vehicle sales which is not art of automotive operations debt

The less enlightened amongst us are going to see those numbers and conclude that Ford and GM 

are in big trouble. Such is the danger of throwing around raw numbers without context.

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford is cancelling it's plan to build the Rivian based SUV, it is now working on a different Rivian based vehicle for Lincoln.

Ford hasn't released details of what that may entail.....I wonder if other BEV plans are going to go backwards,

especially if the market is now less interested in high priced BEVs that are not Tesla....

Ford executives have emphasized that a Lincoln BEV is still coming, and soon, despite the cancellation of the Rivian-derived vehicle. But what they are talking about is the second Lincoln BEV that has been in the works as a FMC product, building on the in-house technology first unveiled in the Mustang Mach-E. That will be a mid-sized Lincoln all-electric crossover being developed in tandem with a Ford product, and it should be arriving for probably MY2023. Ford insists that its cooperative work with Rivian continues and that a joint product might still arrive at some point in the future, but they currently emphasize more the chance to learn from Rivian in developing BEV technology than from using the Rivian skateboard for a near-term product.

Edited by Gurgeh
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21 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

Ford executives have emphasized that a Lincoln BEV is still coming, and soon, despite the cancellation of the Rivian-derived vehicle. But what they are talking about is the second Lincoln BEV that has been in the works as a FMC product, building on the in-house technology first unveiled in the Mustang Mach-E. That will be a mid-sized Lincoln all-electric crossover being developed in tandem with a Ford product, and it should be arriving for probably MY2023. Ford insists that its cooperative work with Rivian continues and that a joint product might still arrive at some point in the future, but they currently emphasize more the chance to learn from Rivian in developing BEV technology than from using the Rivian skateboard for a near-term product.

 

I would presume the "in-house" built Lincoln BEV would revive the Zephyr name as well.

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On 5/2/2020 at 3:55 PM, J-150 said:

Funny thing is, this is what Fields was planning for. It was just 2 years late from his prediction.


True but even then he went too far cancelling or stopping projects.  I think Ford is in better shape today to withstand a recession than it was in 2017.

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