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Ford may lose 5 BILLION dollars in the 2nd Quarter


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8 hours ago, akirby said:


True but even then he went too far cancelling or stopping projects.  I think Ford is in better shape today to withstand a recession than it was in 2017.

Spot on.

Fields was more like three years early shutting down so there was a lot more that he should have been doing to keep those dead end models selling stronger than they did.

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10 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

Ford executives have emphasized that a Lincoln BEV is still coming, and soon, despite the cancellation of the Rivian-derived vehicle. But what they are talking about is the second Lincoln BEV that has been in the works as a FMC product, building on the in-house technology first unveiled in the Mustang Mach-E. That will be a mid-sized Lincoln all-electric crossover being developed in tandem with a Ford product, and it should be arriving for probably MY2023. Ford insists that its cooperative work with Rivian continues and that a joint product might still arrive at some point in the future, but they currently emphasize more the chance to learn from Rivian in developing BEV technology than from using the Rivian skateboard for a near-term product.

I suspect that the Rivian Lincoln had a completely different top hat that was going to blow costs through the roof, what we might be seeing is a similar style but within the parameters of what Rivian can build more effectively and for lower cost. The difference Ford was seeking may have made the Lincoln way too expensive for the post vivid market.

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14 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I suspect that the Rivian Lincoln had a completely different top hat that was going to blow costs through the roof, what we might be seeing is a similar style but within the parameters of what Rivian can build more effectively and for lower cost. The difference Ford was seeking may have made the Lincoln way too expensive for the post vivid market.


You’re assuming they’re still building a Rivian based suv but by all accounts they’ll only be doing the midsized Ford and Lincoln BEVs based on the 2nd gen Mach-E platform.

 

The Rivian/Lincoln suv was going to be 100% bespoke to Lincoln with no sharing of any parts with a Ford,  So it was going to be hugely expensive for the top hat even though they saved on the platform.

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12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

You're counting the debt of financed vehicle sales which is not art of automotive operations debt

The less enlightened amongst us are going to see those numbers and conclude that Ford and GM 

are in big trouble. Such is the danger of throwing around raw numbers without context.

 

Good point but we really don't know what percentage of debt is attributable to auto financing for either firm.  GM sells more vehicles than Ford does, and it's a safe assumption they finance a similar percentage of sold vehicles, dealer flooring, ect..  Niether company is in immediate danger and with rebounding auto sales should be able to ride the current crisis out.   I would like to see Toyota's numbers, but Japanese accounting practices differ from those of the U.S., so a direct comparison is difficult.  VW's are another story entirely, and I suspect they are probably in worse shape than any major auto manufacturer.       

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1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

Good point but we really don't know what percentage of debt is attributable to auto financing for either firm. 


We know EXACTLY how much,  It’s in the quarterly financial reports.  
 

Ford Credit -  $136B debt,   $146B receivables.   I think that number also takes estimated losses from non payers into account.

 

Ford (excluding Ford Credit) - $30B debt,   $34B cash.

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3 hours ago, akirby said:


You’re assuming they’re still building a Rivian based suv but by all accounts they’ll only be doing the midsized Ford and Lincoln BEVs based on the 2nd gen Mach-E platform.

 

The Rivian/Lincoln suv was going to be 100% bespoke to Lincoln with no sharing of any parts with a Ford,  So it was going to be hugely expensive for the top hat even though they saved on the platform.

I'm not assuming anything, in the one breath, Ford said it was stopping the Rivian based Lincoln, the report also said that Ford was still working with Rivian on a different vehicle for Lincoln but they gave no specifics beyond that........

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

I'm not assuming anything, in the one breath, Ford said it was stopping the Rivian based Lincoln, the report also said that Ford was still working with Rivian on a different vehicle for Lincoln but they gave no specifics beyond that........


You misread the announcement.  They’re still planning to use some Rivian technology somewhere but the Lincoln BEV mentioned in the article is the one based on the Mach-E architecture not Rivian.

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3 hours ago, akirby said:

Ford Credit -  $136B debt,   $146B receivables.   I think that number also takes estimated losses from non payers into account.

 

 

 

That's is something of a slippery slope for all auto manufacturers right now.  Those losses could rise substantially in coming months.  

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8 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

That's is something of a slippery slope for all auto manufacturers right now.  Those losses could rise substantially in coming months.  


Or pretty much anyone who has loans outstanding.  At least they have collateral to fall back on as opposed to a credit card.

 

The bigger danger may be depressed used car values which will kill lease returns.  They do account for all that and have adjusted forecasts accordingly.

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On 4/30/2020 at 2:32 PM, mackinaw said:

The thing that most business analysts and opinion piece writers just don't get about Ford is that to the family who is still in control this is basically great great grandpa's farm. It's a deeply emotional thing and even the next generation of Fords are becoming involved. They want to do everything they can to preserve it as the 116 year old company Henry founded. That drives Wall Street crazy. They want it sold off and new Volkswagen V150s and a handful of other successful models rolling off the assembly line with VW on the hood. I just use Volkswagen as an example because all of the opinion writers think that's who needs to buy Ford. With that said, Ford has already said they want a close partnership with VW while remaining an independent company. I think that's fine and could be beneficial long term.

 

Ford has had so many near death experiences and came back to live another day writing them off now is way premature. In fact, Ford historically has always done their best by far when their back is up against the wall. If we can get through this tough period I think you're going to see some really amazing products come. I cannot stress how important Bronco and Bronco Sport will be in the short term. Yes long term there are plenty of issues, but it always seems these near death experiences help turn them around. There are no guarantees in this business and Ford may not be independent forever, but they aren't going down without a fight.

Edited by 2005Explorer
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1 hour ago, 2005Explorer said:

The thing that most business analysts and opinion piece writers just don't get about Ford is that to the family who is still in control this is basically great great grandpa's farm. It's a deeply emotional thing and even the next generation of Fords are becoming involved. They want to do everything they can to preserve it as the 116 year old company Henry founded. That drives Wall Street crazy. They want it sold off and new Volkswagen V150s and a handful of other successful models rolling off the assembly line with VW on the hood. I just use Volkswagen as an example because all of the opinion writers think that's who needs to buy Ford. With that said, Ford has already said they want a close partnership with VW while remaining an independent company. I think that's fine and could be beneficial long term.

 

Ford has had so many near death experiences and came back to live another day writing them off now is way premature. In fact, Ford historically has always done their best by far when their back is up against the wall. If we can get through this tough period I think you're going to see some really amazing products come. I cannot stress how important Bronco and Bronco Sport will be in the short term. Yes long term there are plenty of issues, but it always seems these near death experiences help turn them around. There are no guarantees in this business and Ford may not be independent forever, but they aren't going down without a fight.

 

I agree. Stories saying Ford is most likely going to be alright don't generate the amount of clicks and buzz as, "OMG the sky is falling at Ford!"

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The reporters still don't get how different Ford is to other publicly listed companies

the either / or choices presented in the article above assumed that the Fords only

have either bankruptcy or sale to VW but there's a third option, regroup and pay down

the rising debt once things get back to normal.

 

During the GFC, writers went to great pain to constantly mention Ford's $23 billion debt,

how it maxed out it's borrowings and how they must surely fail, month after month, it was

the same contrived suite, so that's why we should take little notice of it.

 

Ford will always choose survival of the company over investors and that's why there's so much

angst between it and Wall Street, Ford doesn't play by their rules, not exactly anyway'......

Edited by jpd80
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9 hours ago, Fordowner said:

How did GM make money in the first quarter? 

 

Higher EBIT for GM North America and stable results for GM Cruise offset declines for GM International. Also, GM Financial reported positive EBT even though it was lower than last year. 

 

image.thumb.png.293af6d174802e10b9592f7f21c48cc7.png

Edited by rperez817
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2 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

Gotta say, GM making a profit in the first quarter is impressive.  

 

Yes sir mackinaw. Among the 3 U.S. domestic automakers, for Q1 2020 the profit posted by GM and Tesla contrasts starkly with the loss at Ford.

 

It will be interesting to see how things play out for all 3 companies in Q2 and beyond.

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41 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir mackinaw. Among the 3 U.S. domestic automakers, for Q1 2020 the profit posted by GM and Tesla contrasts starkly with the loss at Ford.

 

It will be interesting to see how things play out for all 3 companies in Q2 and beyond.

 

I don't think any company will make a profit in the 2nd quarter.  Being shut down for all of April and most of May about guarantees red ink. 

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21 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Well, when you can't figure out how to turn markets around and instead just sell them all, that helps.


“Transformational cost actions”. -  translation - we did some major cost cutting which could be temporary or it might affect future products.  
 

 

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Many analysts seem to miss Ford's primary strength......truck and van commercial sales. If all else fails as in Explorer, Escape, and Lincoln, Ford could still be a viable company just selling trucks and vans assuming they are kept competitive. I guess you can include the MAP Bronco since it's body on frame. I believe Ford has stated that in Europe they are now concentrating more on commercial vehicles than the rest of their lineup. So as long as Ford is dominant in trucks and vans, you can't count Ford out IMO.

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3 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

Many analysts seem to miss Ford's primary strength......truck and van commercial sales. If all else fails as in Explorer, Escape, and Lincoln, Ford could still be a viable company just selling trucks and vans assuming they are kept competitive. I guess you can include the MAP Bronco since it's body on frame. I believe Ford has stated that in Europe they are now concentrating more on commercial vehicles than the rest of their lineup. So as long as Ford is dominant in trucks and vans, you can't count Ford out IMO.

Normally I'd agree with that assessment but, something happened to Ford  after 2019 Q3 that killed North American profits in Q4 

and sent it into a substantial loss in Q1. It's a massive reversal of fortune and something Ford skipped over in their last quarterly

presentation. Product mix (-$1.1 B), vehicle costs (-$700 M) and Ford Credit (-$800 M) were all huge hits to North America even

before Covid-19 hit, whatever Ford did or failed to do resulted in a massive loss and they really didn't explain it either.

Edited by jpd80
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