akirby Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, fuzzymoomoo said: The problem with quarantining the affected folks is you could easily have an entire line worth of people in quarantine and essentially shutting down production anyway. Understood. That might mean shutting down the plant again but that's worst case. You still should take precautions while working - keep 6 feet apart as much as possible, masks, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: The problem with quarantining the affected folks is you could easily have an entire line worth of people in quarantine and essentially shutting down production anyway. Not to sound pessimistic, but sooner or later this thing is going to half to work its way through the population or ideally we get a vaccine ASAP. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to reach the point you describe, shut everything down for 4 weeks, and with your employee population mostly recovered you resume work and from there on you hopefully only have the occasional employee drop out who avoided the first wave. This is of course assuming that you remain immune afterwards, but we can't be shutdown forever, at some point we gotta work and earn our keep, and figure out these questions like can we develop immunity and how bad will 2nd or 3rd waves be. As long as the vaccine producers are chugging away, and the hospitals are standing by and ready with plenty of ventilators and the various experimental treatments we have... i think we have to try. Lets not forget that the fatality rate appears incredibly low, and many people are only experiencing mild symptoms. As long as we allowthe elderly and those who are at-risk to stay home we should be okay. Edited May 13, 2020 by probowler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, probowler said: Not to sound pessimistic, but sooner or later this thing is going to half to work its way through the population or ideally we get a vaccine ASAP. The NYT had an interesting article a few days back. Several researchers have developed a model to see how long Covid will last. Unless a vaccine is developed, they see Covid lasting until 2022, when the "herd immunity" level is finally reached (defined as when 55% of the population having Covid). The model shows peaks and valleys as we go through the next few years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, probowler said: Not to sound pessimistic, but sooner or later this thing is going to half to work its way through the population or ideally we get a vaccine ASAP. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to reach the point you describe, shut everything down for 4 weeks, and with your employee population mostly recovered you resume work and from there on you hopefully only have the occasional employee drop out who avoided the first wave. This is of course assuming that you remain immune afterwards, but we can't be shutdown forever, at some point we gotta work and earn our keep, and figure out these questions like can we develop immunity and how bad will 2nd or 3rd waves be. As long as the vaccine producers are chugging away, and the hospitals are standing by and ready with plenty of ventilators and the various experimental treatments we have... i think we have to try. Lets not forget that the fatality rate appears incredibly low, and many people are only experiencing mild symptoms. As long as we allowthe elderly and those who are at-risk to stay home we should be okay. I agree with everything you said. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev-Mo Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) On 5/9/2020 at 4:49 PM, rperez817 said: Yes sir. Thousands of Californians from that area have done so. Texas is the #1 state for domestic in-migration in the U.S. Also, Texas is the #1 most popular destination and Nevada the #3 most popular for Californians who move to another state. To the Tesla folks heading to Texas, welcome y'all! Be careful what you wish for! 20 years ago I lived in a such a great place. Small government, low taxes, a deep RED state that was very much libertarian. The state bragged about all the Californians moving here because we were such a great place and they were going to spend all their money on our businesses. There was one year when nearly 80,000 moves were reported from California. Now our state is the bluest of blue, high tax, vast amounts of government overreach. They nearly regulated the oil and gas industry to death. Housing has become un-affordable, traffic is a nightmare, insurance rates are skyrocketing, people are anti-liberty and pro-big government. Hey Texas -be careful what you wish for, those Californians will turn you blue in just a few years. They move to get away from the invasive government and high taxes, but they suddenly forget why they moved when it comes time to vote. I'm right, you'll see. Texas will be un-recognizable in 5-10 years. Edited May 13, 2020 by Kev-Mo 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, mackinaw said: The NYT had an interesting article a few days back. Several researchers have developed a model to see how long Covid will last. Unless a vaccine is developed, they see Covid lasting until 2022, when the "herd immunity" level is finally reached (defined as when 55% of the population having Covid). The model shows peaks and valleys as we go through the next few years. The main problem with herd immunity as it relates to COVID is its unclear how long immunity lasts after you've had the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev-Mo Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 hours ago, probowler said: Not to sound pessimistic, but sooner or later this thing is going to half to work its way through the population or ideally we get a vaccine ASAP. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to reach the point you describe, shut everything down for 4 weeks, and with your employee population mostly recovered you resume work and from there on you hopefully only have the occasional employee drop out who avoided the first wave. This is of course assuming that you remain immune afterwards, but we can't be shutdown forever, at some point we gotta work and earn our keep, and figure out these questions like can we develop immunity and how bad will 2nd or 3rd waves be. As long as the vaccine producers are chugging away, and the hospitals are standing by and ready with plenty of ventilators and the various experimental treatments we have... i think we have to try. Lets not forget that the fatality rate appears incredibly low, and many people are only experiencing mild symptoms. As long as we allowthe elderly and those who are at-risk to stay home we should be okay. Did you know that apporx 80,000 deaths were attributed to seasonal flu in the USA winter of 2017-18. It was reported as an 'greater than average' flu season. You can look it up. Great year economically though. I had a long talk with my Dr. He and his office partners believe this WuFlu showed up late last summer. By all we can surmise, I believe I had it around Halloween. Others I spoke with said they think they had it in January and very early February. And so it goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 49 minutes ago, Kev-Mo said: Did you know that apporx 80,000 deaths were attributed to seasonal flu in the USA winter of 2017-18. It was reported as an 'greater than average' flu season. You can look it up. Great year economically though. Here is the difference though. Those 80K deaths were spread out over several months and all over the country - and that's after most people getting a vaccine. Without social distancing and without a vaccine covid-19 spreads much more quickly. And when you have large groups of people in close contact such as churches, funerals, theaters or mass transit it can multiply exponentially and overwhelm the local medical community. Until we get a vaccine I think not allowing large social or close public gatherings along with more testing and contact tracing and by sheltering the medically fragile and taking common sense precautions we can limit this to no worse than the regular flu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 This is kind of related. The Spanish Flu of 1918 hit young people much more severely than older people. The theory is that some sort of flu similar to the Spanish Flu went around in the world in the late 1800's. Those that were exposed developed an immunity. When the Spanish Flu appeared in 1918 - 1920, the "older" folks exposed 20 years earlier were by and large spared, while mortality rates for teenagers, etc., was high. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 My whole issue with this is just Elon's arrogance. Somehow he's better and everyone should bow to his massive intellect. :eyerolls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, 92merc said: My whole issue with this is just Elon's arrogance. Somehow he's better and everyone should bow to his massive intellect. It's Alameda County officials that are being arrogant here, not Elon Musk or Tesla. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, rperez817 said: It's Alameda County officials that are being arrogant here, not Elon Musk or Tesla. Some truth to that. It's unrealistic to expect Tesla to remain shut down, with the rest of the industry starting back up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 If Alameda officials think the virus isn't in check locally, they should be able to decide whether operations/businesses should be opened up. They shouldn't have to open just because somewhere else in the country has opened up. I have no idea what the situation is out there. But our governor is making decisions based on data he is seeing in our state. He's not making decisions based on other states. I'm sure he's looking at the data. But that isn't the primary factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, 92merc said: I have no idea what the situation is out there. But our governor is making decisions based on data he is seeing in our state. He's not making decisions based on other states. Both the governor of California and Fremont city officials gave permission for Tesla to resume manufacturing operations last week at its Fremont plant. Even Alameda County stated last week in their return to work order FAQ that the "manufacturing of distributed energy resources (which is defined in state law to include electric vehicles, solar and battery storage) is permitted to resume". It's the Alameda County Public Health Officer that insisted that Tesla not resume operations, despite all the information to the contrary. This isn't the first time that Tesla had to deal with conflicting guidance among federal, state, county, and municipal governments. It happened back in March as well. Edited May 14, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLPRacing Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Tesla can't sell direct in Texas due to our franchise laws, there's no way Elon would move Tesla to Texas unless that law changed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, NLPRacing said: Tesla can't sell direct in Texas due to our franchise laws, there's no way Elon would move Tesla to Texas unless that law changed. Almost all states have the same laws but most have given Tesla an exemption due to low volume. I expect more states to start enforcing their franchise laws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLPRacing Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, akirby said: Almost all states have the same laws but most have given Tesla an exemption due to low volume. I expect more states to start enforcing their franchise laws. Texas gave Tesla (and Ford) a hard no on owning their own dealerships. The auto dealer lobby in Texas is VERY strong. Edited May 14, 2020 by NLPRacing Grammar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NLPRacing said: Texas gave Tesla (and Ford) a hard noon owning their own dealerships. The auto dealer lobby in Texas is VERY strong. Surprised they didn't get a no from all states. Ford has gotten a hard no several times even when they weren't selling directly but just trying to help dealers sell used cars by hosting a website. I guess from the dealer viewpoint it's different if it's a new company vs. the company you're already franchised with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, akirby said: Almost all states have the same laws but most have given Tesla an exemption due to low volume. I expect more states to start enforcing their franchise laws. Michigan now allows Tesla to sell vehicles in our state. Tesla just opened its first service center. Car sales will follow later. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/henry-payne/2020/05/13/payne-tesla-michigan-store-musk-california-battle/5185941002/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, mackinaw said: Michigan now allows Tesla to sell vehicles in our state. Tesla just opened its first service center. Car sales will follow later. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/henry-payne/2020/05/13/payne-tesla-michigan-store-musk-california-battle/5185941002/ That's great news, thanks for sharing mackinaw sir. Looks like the situation in Michigan is now the same as in Texas. Tesla only has galleries and service center in these states at the moment. No traditional retail stores. Hopefully Texas will follow Michigan and allow Tesla to operate retail stores too. In the DFW Metroplex, Tesla now has 3 service centers (Dallas, Fort Worth, Plano) and 5 galleries (Dallas, Fort Worth University Drive, Fort Worth Clearfork, Plano, and Southlake). Edited May 14, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 On 5/14/2020 at 12:58 PM, NLPRacing said: Tesla can't sell direct in Texas due to our franchise laws, there's no way Elon would move Tesla to Texas unless that law changed. And yet it was just announced Tesla's next factory will be in Texas.. https://electrek.co/2020/05/15/tesla-factory-austin-texas/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 I'm willing to bet there was some dealing going on, a rule change, exemption, or promise that will fix that franchise issue in Teslas favor. I'm not exactly sure how you can just change or nullify a law like that... maybe the governor promised not to enforce it? But it will be interesting to learn more going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 2 hours ago, probowler said: I'm willing to bet there was some dealing going on, a rule change, exemption, or promise that will fix that franchise issue in Teslas favor. I'm not exactly sure how you can just change or nullify a law like that... maybe the governor promised not to enforce it? But it will be interesting to learn more going forward. In some states they use a loophole because the sales come directly from the factory and not a local dealership. In others they’ve received exemptions based on low volume or negotiated exemptions. Expect those loopholes and exemptions to be closed as mainstream brands start to compete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Based Elon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLPRacing Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/15/2020 at 5:29 PM, blwnsmoke said: And yet it was just announced Tesla's next factory will be in Texas.. https://electrek.co/2020/05/15/tesla-factory-austin-texas/ It's not official, but hopefully, Austin gets it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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