mackinaw Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 From today’s Autoline Daily, paraphrasing: “Even if, starting today, half of new car sales were EV’s, it will take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.” Listen to the first few minutes. http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 13 hours ago, mackinaw said: From today’s Autoline Daily, paraphrasing: “Even if, starting today, half of new car sales were EV’s, it will take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.” Listen to the first few minutes. http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766 Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 13 hours ago, mackinaw said: From today’s Autoline Daily, paraphrasing: “Even if, starting today, half of new car sales were EV’s, it will take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.” Listen to the first few minutes. http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766 Really? So for the next 35 years the ICE will have a place? Wonder what Hackett thinks of that stat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did. The point they were making was that even if EV sales were to increase to half of all vehicle sales, right now, it will take 35 years before EV's make up 50% of vehicles in the U.S. There are currently 287 million vehicles in the U.S. It will take decades for these vehicles to age out of the system and be replaced by EV's. In other words, ICE powered vehicles will be around a long, long time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Most of the EV talk is being driven by Wall Street and Telsa being the "hot and sexy" carmaker in some peoples eyes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, mackinaw said: The point they were making was that even if EV sales were to increase to half of all vehicle sales, right now, it will take 35 years before EV's make up 50% of vehicles in the U.S. There are currently 287 million vehicles in the U.S. It will take decades for these vehicles to age out of the system and be replaced by EV's. In other words, ICE powered vehicles will be around a long, long time. Yes sir mackinaw. Since passenger cars and light trucks typically have a lifetime of 15-25 years, many of the ICE vehicles being sold today will still be in operation well into the late 2030s and into the early 2040s. The slow turnover of vehicles in operation is one reason why some countries have plans to ban the sale of new ICE powered cars and trucks by 2040 or earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, rperez817 said: ....Since passenger cars and light trucks typically have a lifetime of 15-25 years, many of the ICE vehicles being sold today will still be in operation well into the late 2030s and into the early 2040s..... I can vouch for that. My daily driver is a 26 year old F-150. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did. I wouldn't say they cant, I would have to believe its by choice..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edselford Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 The above is why electric vehicles can only be a part of a larger solution to the CO2 problem. What we need to do is invent a CO2 filter we can put in front of every ICE vehicle that cleans the air while people drive with a goal of getting to a negative CO2 from each ICE vehicle to clean the air at ground level. edselford Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, edselford said: The above is why electric vehicles can only be a part of a larger solution to the CO2 problem. What we need to do is invent a CO2 filter we can put in front of every ICE vehicle that cleans the air while people drive with a goal of getting to a negative CO2 from each ICE vehicle to clean the air at ground level. edselford didn't Saab develop something along those lines that utilized their radiators to cleanse air... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edselford Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 I don’t know. They did invent the start/stop system that is now on every vehicle about 30 years ago! I don’t think SAAB cars exists anymore. If you have anything on the filter please share! thanks edselford Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Deanh said: didn't Saab develop something along those lines that utilized their radiators to cleanse air... Actually I think that was Ford...Ok they looked into it, but didn't purse it https://jalopnik.com/how-volvo-once-used-a-catalyst-coated-radiator-to-remov-1831438959 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) Saab is gone burger, GM purchased them and basically killed the brand...sad...kinda dug that they beat to a different drum somewhat... Edited May 14, 2020 by Deanh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Actually I think that was Ford...Ok they looked into it, but didn't purse it https://jalopnik.com/how-volvo-once-used-a-catalyst-coated-radiator-to-remov-1831438959 That may be it...I thought it was SAAB... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
30 OTT 6 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 EVs need a battery breakthrough. Low energy density and high charge times of current batteries can't compete with gasoline. Solid state batteries may be the answer... we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, 30 OTT 6 said: EVs need a battery breakthrough. Low energy density and high charge times of current batteries can't compete with gasoline. Solid state batteries may be the answer... we'll see. Frank Markus at Motor Trend wrote a good article today about the science and technology for Zero-Carbon Transportation. https://www.motortrend.com/news/science-will-find-a-way-to-zero-carbon-transportation-technologue/ Quote "Engineering advances underway will greatly increase the volumetric and gravimetric energy density and the inherent safety of the batteries themselves, while reducing the time required to recharge them until users find them as convenient to live with as today's combustion powertrains. IBM has very recently announced the discovery of a battery that uses a nickel and cobalt-free cathode and a high-flash-point liquid electrolyte that helps resist formation of the lithium dendrites (spikes) that can form on the cathode during fast charging and cause a short circuit. The three promising new undisclosed materials it uses can reportedly be extracted from seawater. Research is also ongoing into solid-state batteries, and companies like GBattery are developing ways to reduce charging times for all batteries, like pulse-charging." Edited May 15, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzach Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 And those estimates are hypothetically based on EV's being half of new cars sold now. That number is more likely to be reached ten years from now or longer. So in that case we are looking at 2080 before we are full electric. I will be 115 years old by then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 I am skeptical on how fast the BEV transition will take place, but the "if 50% starting now and continuing on" criteria is misleading. That is sort of like saying that if you were walking to the door to leave your house and that if with each step you got half way there, you would never leave the house. When BEVs are fully competitive with ICE in both capability and price their sales will quickly rise to 50%, and then keep rising. They won't stay at 50% for 35 years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 The Autoline clip points out how far away we are from a EV-dominant world. 50% EV's by 2055 seems right to me. It will take decades before the 280+million ICE vehicles on the road cycle out of the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edselford Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Thank you Deanh for the link on Volvo ozone reduction radiator! Interesting edselford Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 All of this just convinced me that hybrid and PHEV have an important role with adding efficiency to ICEs in the now and getting people engaged in a level of electrification that works for them today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, jpd80 said: All of this just convinced me that hybrid and PHEV have an important role with adding efficiency to ICEs in the now and getting people engaged in a level of electrification that works for them today. That's how I'm thinking. After debating the past few months between an Escape PHEV and a Ranger, we're leaning toward the Escape. No way would I own a BEV, right now, in the rural area I live. Maybe in 5+ years, but not now. A PHEV just makes more sense. Looking forward to a test drive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 18 hours ago, mackinaw said: That's how I'm thinking. After debating the past few months between an Escape PHEV and a Ranger, we're leaning toward the Escape. No way would I own a BEV, right now, in the rural area I live. Maybe in 5+ years, but not now. A PHEV just makes more sense. Looking forward to a test drive. As an Escape Hybrid owner, two downsides that don't bother me, but could bother others. Possible computer module glitches, poor resale value as battery ages as replacement is costly. Near as I can tell, refurbished battery runs about $3,000 including labor and new at least $6,000. Ford does offer decent 8 year 80,000 mile warranty on battery including component parts. Imagine it would be same on plugin. When you experience electric mode, you learn to love the quietness and don't like it when the engine intrudes from time to time unless it's a Ferrari, Porsche flat 6, or Mustang V8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paintguy Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 2 hours ago, FordBuyer said: As an Escape Hybrid owner, two downsides that don't bother me, but could bother others. Possible computer module glitches, poor resale value as battery ages as replacement is costly. Near as I can tell, refurbished battery runs about $3,000 including labor and new at least $6,000. Ford does offer decent 8 year 80,000 mile warranty on battery including component parts. Imagine it would be same on plugin. When you experience electric mode, you learn to love the quietness and don't like it when the engine intrudes from time to time unless it's a Ferrari, Porsche flat 6, or Mustang V8. As a former Escape Hybrid owner, over 100K miles, no battery or computer module glitch ever. I believe you will have at least as high a chance of mechanical/control problems with an ICE car. Last powertrain problem I've had was an oil leak on an '03 Jaguar X type. I know, served me right for buying a Jag. At least I bought it used, so I got a good price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Fusion hybrids are over 10 yrs old with 150k miles still going strong. I’ve heard of very very few hybrid battery replacements. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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