Jump to content

EV's have a long way to go


Recommended Posts

13 hours ago, mackinaw said:

From today’s Autoline Daily, paraphrasing:

 

“Even if, starting today, half of new car sales were EV’s, it will take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.”  

 

Listen to the first few minutes.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766

 

Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, mackinaw said:

From today’s Autoline Daily, paraphrasing:

 

“Even if, starting today, half of new car sales were EV’s, it will take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.”  

 

Listen to the first few minutes.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766

Really? So  for  the next 35 years the ICE will have a place?  Wonder what Hackett thinks of that stat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did.

 

The point they were making was that even if EV sales were to increase to half of all vehicle sales, right now, it will take 35 years before EV's make up 50% of vehicles in the U.S. 

 

There are currently 287 million vehicles in the U.S. It will take decades for these vehicles to age out of the system and be replaced by EV's. 

 

In other words, ICE powered vehicles will be around a long, long time. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

The point they were making was that even if EV sales were to increase to half of all vehicle sales, right now, it will take 35 years before EV's make up 50% of vehicles in the U.S. 

 

There are currently 287 million vehicles in the U.S. It will take decades for these vehicles to age out of the system and be replaced by EV's. 

 

In other words, ICE powered vehicles will be around a long, long time. 

 

Yes sir mackinaw. Since passenger cars and light trucks typically have a lifetime of 15-25 years, many of the ICE vehicles being sold today will still be in operation well into the late 2030s and into the early 2040s.

 

The slow turnover of vehicles in operation is one reason why some countries have plans to ban the sale of new ICE powered cars and trucks by 2040 or earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

....Since passenger cars and light trucks typically have a lifetime of 15-25 years, many of the ICE vehicles being sold today will still be in operation well into the late 2030s and into the early 2040s.....

 

I can vouch for that.  My daily driver is a 26 year old F-150. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Other than Tesla, who can make EV's in volume numbers? GM and Ford can't. GM is lucky to sell 2,000 Bolts a month and Ford can only produce maybe 50,000/year worldwide of the Mach E. Even Tesla only sells about 100,000/quarter, and many of those go overseas or did.

I wouldn't say they cant, I would have to believe its by choice.....

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The above is why electric vehicles can only be a part of a larger solution to the CO2 problem.

What we need to do is invent a CO2 filter we can put in front of every ICE vehicle that cleans the air while people drive with a goal of getting to a negative CO2 from each ICE vehicle to clean the air at ground level.

edselford

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, edselford said:

The above is why electric vehicles can only be a part of a larger solution to the CO2 problem.

What we need to do is invent a CO2 filter we can put in front of every ICE vehicle that cleans the air while people drive with a goal of getting to a negative CO2 from each ICE vehicle to clean the air at ground level.

edselford

didn't Saab develop something along  those lines that utilized their radiators to cleanse air...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, 30 OTT 6 said:

EVs need a battery breakthrough. Low energy density and high charge times of current batteries can't compete with gasoline. Solid state batteries may be the answer... we'll see. 

 

Frank Markus at Motor Trend wrote a good article today about the science and technology for Zero-Carbon Transportation. https://www.motortrend.com/news/science-will-find-a-way-to-zero-carbon-transportation-technologue/

 

Quote

"Engineering advances underway will greatly increase the volumetric and gravimetric energy density and the inherent safety of the batteries themselves, while reducing the time required to recharge them until users find them as convenient to live with as today's combustion powertrains. IBM has very recently announced the discovery of a battery that uses a nickel and cobalt-free cathode and a high-flash-point liquid electrolyte that helps resist formation of the lithium dendrites (spikes) that can form on the cathode during fast charging and cause a short circuit. The three promising new undisclosed materials it uses can reportedly be extracted from seawater. Research is also ongoing into solid-state batteries, and companies like GBattery are developing ways to reduce charging times for all batteries, like pulse-charging."

Edited by rperez817
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And those estimates are hypothetically based on EV's being half of new cars sold now.  That number is more likely to be reached ten years from now or  longer.   So in that case we are looking at 2080 before we are full electric.  I will be 115 years old by then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am skeptical on how fast the BEV transition will take place, but the "if 50% starting now and continuing on" criteria is misleading. That is sort of like saying that if you were walking to the door to leave your house and that if with each step you got half way there, you would never leave the house. When BEVs are fully competitive with ICE in both capability and price their sales will quickly rise to 50%, and then keep rising. They won't stay at 50% for 35 years.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

All of this just convinced me that hybrid and PHEV have an important role with adding efficiency to ICEs  in the now

and getting people engaged in a level of  electrification that works for them today.

 

That's how I'm thinking.  After debating the past few months between an Escape PHEV and a Ranger, we're leaning toward the Escape.  No way would I own a BEV, right now, in the rural area I live. Maybe in 5+ years, but not now.  A PHEV just makes more sense.  Looking forward to a test drive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

That's how I'm thinking.  After debating the past few months between an Escape PHEV and a Ranger, we're leaning toward the Escape.  No way would I own a BEV, right now, in the rural area I live. Maybe in 5+ years, but not now.  A PHEV just makes more sense.  Looking forward to a test drive.

 

As an Escape Hybrid owner, two downsides that don't bother me, but could bother others. Possible computer module glitches, poor resale value as battery ages as replacement is costly. Near as I can tell, refurbished battery runs about $3,000 including labor and new at least $6,000. Ford does offer decent 8 year 80,000 mile warranty on battery including component parts. Imagine it would be same on plugin. When you experience electric mode, you learn to love the quietness and don't like it when the engine intrudes from time to time unless it's a Ferrari, Porsche flat 6, or Mustang V8.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

As an Escape Hybrid owner, two downsides that don't bother me, but could bother others. Possible computer module glitches, poor resale value as battery ages as replacement is costly. Near as I can tell, refurbished battery runs about $3,000 including labor and new at least $6,000. Ford does offer decent 8 year 80,000 mile warranty on battery including component parts. Imagine it would be same on plugin. When you experience electric mode, you learn to love the quietness and don't like it when the engine intrudes from time to time unless it's a Ferrari, Porsche flat 6, or Mustang V8.

 

 

As a former  Escape Hybrid owner, over 100K miles, no battery or computer module glitch ever. I believe you will have at least as high a chance of mechanical/control problems with an ICE car. Last powertrain problem I've had was an oil leak on an '03 Jaguar X type. I know, served me right for buying a Jag. At least I bought it used, so I got a good price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...