EV's have a long way to go

[AGR]

The premise of the thread, and the Autoline Daily quote that inspired it, are faulty. When the public collectively decides to go electric, the switchover of the new car market will occur in a relatively short timeframe, something like 5-7 years from single digit % to a majority. And it will continue climbing from there. This will occur when pricing, range, and charge converge to an acceptable point. What that point is, is the big mystery; no one has a crystal ball, least of all us.  Sure, some market segments and geographic outliers will still be mostly ICE, but those will be increasingly less common.

Eventually, ICE cars will end up like tube TVs: yeah, they still work, but hardly anybody will want them. Classic cars? Many will still use ICE, but there's already a cottage industry developing EV powertrains to retrofit old cars. Volkswagen has one from the factory to retromod their classic RE air cooled cars and vans. Myself, I'd rather see a Deuce Coupe with an EV powertrain than a Chitty small block.

 

For those who doubt this, just remember that you're an enthusiast. The average Joe or Jolene puttering around in their Camcords and RavCRVs are nowhere close as wedded to ICE as you are.

Edited May 17, 2020 by AGR

[tzach]

15 hours ago, AGR said:

The premise of the thread, and the Autoline Daily quote that inspired it, are faulty. When the public collectively decides to go electric, the switchover of the new car market will occur in a relatively short timeframe, something like 5-7 years from single digit % to a majority. And it will continue climbing from there. This will occur when pricing, range, and charge converge to an acceptable point. What that point is, is the big mystery; no one has a crystal ball, least of all us.  Sure, some market segments and geographic outliers will still be mostly ICE, but those will be increasingly less common.

Eventually, ICE cars will end up like tube TVs: yeah, they still work, but hardly anybody will want them. Classic cars? Many will still use ICE, but there's already a cottage industry developing EV powertrains to retrofit old cars. Volkswagen has one from the factory to retromod their classic RE air cooled cars and vans. Myself, I'd rather see a Deuce Coupe with an EV powertrain than a Chitty small block.

 

For those who doubt this, just remember that you're an enthusiast. The average Joe or Jolene puttering around in their Camcords and RavCRVs are nowhere close as wedded to ICE as you are.

Sales your talking about?   So if the EV takes off five years from now and takes 5-7 years to hit majority sales that's 2032.  Even if at that time it was 100% at 17 million sales per year it would take 16 years to replace all of the vehicles, that's 2048.  So even with those  numbers that's 28 years away.

[akirby]

15 hours ago, AGR said:

For those who doubt this, just remember that you're an enthusiast. The average Joe or Jolene puttering around in their Camcords and RavCRVs are nowhere close as wedded to ICE as you are.

 

For those people it comes down to cost and convenience.   Not everybody has access to a home charger and not everyone wants or is able to pay $30K+.  Nor do they want to wait more than 10-15 minutes to recharge at a public charger once or twice a week.

 

Until then BEV adoption will be limited.   Battery supply is also limited.  How do you go from 200K vehicles/yr to millions overnight?

[FordBuyer]

48 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

For those people it comes down to cost and convenience.   Not everybody has access to a home charger and not everyone wants or is able to pay $30K+.  Nor do they want to wait more than 10-15 minutes to recharge at a public charger once or twice a week.

 

Until then BEV adoption will be limited.   Battery supply is also limited.  How do you go from 200K vehicles/yr to millions overnight?

 

Seems to me battery supply is very limited after many years of trying. Ditto for hybrid and plugin batteries. Toyota and Tesla have the most robust battery supply chain and rest get the crumbs. Even so, Toyota can't meet demand for RAV 4 hybrid. It's taken decades to get the battery supply chain up to 5% or so of total market, and will take many years more just to get it to 25%. 

[Deanh]

22 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

As an Escape Hybrid owner, two downsides that don't bother me, but could bother others. Possible computer module glitches, poor resale value as battery ages as replacement is costly. Near as I can tell, refurbished battery runs about $3,000 including labor and new at least $6,000. Ford does offer decent 8 year 80,000 mile warranty on battery including component parts. Imagine it would be same on plugin. When you experience electric mode, you learn to love the quietness and don't like it when the engine intrudes from time to time unless it's a Ferrari, Porsche flat 6, or Mustang V8.

 

 

I wouldnt worry...we have had the prior generation hybrids show as trade in with 150000 miles pl;us on them....and still running fine....that said its a rarity to seean individual keep ANY car that long

[AGR]

9 hours ago, akirby said:

 

For those people it comes down to cost and convenience.   Not everybody has access to a home charger and not everyone wants or is able to pay $30K+.  Nor do they want to wait more than 10-15 minutes to recharge at a public charger once or twice a week.

 

Until then BEV adoption will be limited.   Battery supply is also limited.  How do you go from 200K vehicles/yr to millions overnight?

 

In other words, what I already said in my post : (I did forget the word "times")

Quote

This will occur when pricing, range, and charge <times> converge to an acceptable point.

 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, AGR said:

 

In other words, what I already said in my post : (I did forget the word "times")

 

I was reiterating your point.