jpd80 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 12 hours ago, akirby said: I think Ford’s problem the last 20 years is they keep changing course too much. They probably should have just kept CD3 for Fusion and Edge. CD4 barely lasted 7 years. Edge will have 3 platforms within 8 years. Maybe they should have kept the 2.5L NA instead of all those 1.x Ecoboost engines. F150 gets a lot of updates but the basic platform hasn’t changed drastically outside the aluminum body. Just tweaked a little. China was a bust although everybody was wrong about that not just Ford. Maybe instead of trying to fix Europe and South America it’s time to cut bait or start over. You have to wonder. Every new plan was the solution that was going to put Ford at the top of buyers lists and make huge profits. I think the upper brass are far less clued into what buyers want or where the market is actually going that's why Ford is perpetually late to whatever sales frenzy is happening and by the time they do react, the party is full of brands already covering buyers needs. So Ford then does what it always does, falling back to large trucks, large utilities and commercial vehicles. I have this theory that everything from mid-sized cars and utilities down, actually makes little profit over covering platform and production costs, that's why Ford is not so eager refreshing as often as other brands - there's nothing much in it profit wise for them, just tied up funding and resources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, akirby said: I said the same thing about CD4. I know, but one can hope. 14 hours ago, jpd80 said: You have to wonder. Every new plan was the solution that was going to put Ford at the top of buyers lists and make huge profits. I think the upper brass are far less clued into what buyers want or where the market is actually going that's why Ford is perpetually late to whatever sales frenzy is happening and by the time they do react, the party is full of brands already covering buyers needs. So Ford then does what it always does, falling back to large trucks, large utilities and commercial vehicles. I have this theory that everything from mid-sized cars and utilities down, actually makes little profit over covering platform and production costs, that's why Ford is not so eager refreshing as often as other brands - there's nothing much in it profit wise for them, just tied up funding and resources. To be fair, Edge has been successful, and Fusion was doing great until they saddled it with the mild at best update. So it's not like they don't know how to make something buyers will want. It's just that once they find a formula that works, they let off the gas and then let the thing coast to a stop, and then say "oh buyers don't like it, let's cut it", while failing to see why they don't like it anymore. Much like phones/devices these days, people want the latest and greatest, even with vehicles (especially with leasing), i.e., they want noticeable changes so their neighbor and friends can go "oh you got the NEW one!" The mild update, while it did refine the look and it looked nice, wasn't enough for people to upgrade, as we've discussed. You're probably right about the profit thing. The problem is, while the company saw profits during the Mulally years, we see declining profits as the company has grown even smaller. And while rightsizing/downsizing and streamlining can make you more profitable, you can't keep shrinking and shrinking forever. Buyers will lose confidence in a brand if it's always shrinking and backtracking. Edited May 17, 2020 by rmc523 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, rmc523 said: I know, but one can hope. To be fair, Edge has been successful, and Fusion was doing great until they saddled it with the mild at best update. So it's not like they don't know how to make something buyers will want. It's just that once they find a formula that works, they let off the gas and then let the thing coast to a stop, and then say "oh buyers don't like it, let's cut it", while failing to see why they don't like it anymore. Much like phones/devices these days, people want the latest and greatest, even with vehicles (especially with leasing), i.e., they want noticeable changes so their neighbor and friends can go "oh you got the NEW one!" The mild update, while it did refine the look and it looked nice, wasn't enough for people to upgrade, as we've discussed. You're probably right about the profit thing. The problem is, while the company saw profits during the Mulally years, we see declining profits as the company has grown even smaller. And while rightsizing/downsizing and streamlining can make you more profitable, you can't keep shrinking and shrinking forever. Buyers will lose confidence in a brand if it's always shrinking and backtracking. Keep in mind that Jim Hackett diverted around $11 billion away from current ICE products to go chase EVs, AVs, mobility and connectivity. So a lot of the funding that would normally be there is gone, leading to engineers having make do with a lot less that's casually written off as waste and duplication - will those chickens come home to roost? Of more concern is Ford's sinking North American profits that started in Q4 last year and worsened in Q1 this year before the pandemic hit. There's an underlying issue with Ford that saw a spike in automotive costs and profit reductions at Ford credit, Ford needs to attention its internal issues during the next two quarters. That lack of connection with buyers and their changing needs is one thing that Ford is trying hard to address, I'm prepared to wait and see with that but the big one for me is new product launches and buyer engagement. Edited May 17, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 49 minutes ago, jpd80 said: Keep in mind that Jim Hackett diverted around $11 billion away from current ICE products to go chase EVs, AVs, mobility and connectivity. So a lot of the funding that would normally be there is gone, leading to engineers having make do with a lot less that's casually written off as waste and duplication - will those chickens come home to roost? Hackett was right. Covid will only accelerate the move to EV's. From PwC: "With demand shrinking and capital constraints mounting, the industry is going to be forced to consolidate the number of powertrain types they choose to develop going forward, said Dietmar Ostermann, a PwC senior partner. "The transition into electric vehicles will actually be accelerated, because the industry cannot afford too many alternative propulsion systems going on at the same time," Ostermann, PwC's U.S. automotive advisory leader, said during a webinar hosted by Automotive News on Thursday." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 (edited) I’m more concerned with the way that money was spent and actual bang for bucks, I’m not seeing a lot for that $11 billion spent across the areas mentioned previously. Ford still has no idea /desire to deliver affordable BEVs for North America, they’re al exclusive high priced products and that’s the danger I see with this plan. Edited May 17, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OX1 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 3 hours ago, mackinaw said: Hackett was right. Covid will only accelerate the move to EV's. From PwC: "With demand shrinking and capital constraints mounting, the industry is going to be forced to consolidate the number of powertrain types they choose to develop going forward, said Dietmar Ostermann, a PwC senior partner. "The transition into electric vehicles will actually be accelerated, because the industry cannot afford too many alternative propulsion systems going on at the same time," Ostermann, PwC's U.S. automotive advisory leader, said during a webinar hosted by Automotive News on Thursday." I don't see it short term, as EV's are more expensive that IC's, except for the absolute top performance (which very few want or need). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 30 minutes ago, OX1 said: I don't see it short term, as EV's are more expensive that IC's, except for the absolute top performance (which very few want or need). The analyst is pointing out that there's only so much money in the pot. Especially now that Covid has severely reduced income. Manufacturers are more likely to spend their available cash on EV's, not ICE. A reasonable assumption, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, mackinaw said: The analyst is pointing out that there's only so much money in the pot. Especially now that Covid has severely reduced income. Manufacturers are more likely to spend their available cash on EV's, not ICE. A reasonable assumption, I think. But here’s the thing, if those electrification plans are not adding any profit today, auto companies are pretty much compelled to keep spending on ICEs to support them. That’s the thing being missed in the discussion, ICE profits are building a bridge of funding to make BEVs possible. You can’t chop out your life blood before BEVs are profitable... well, Ford probably will....... Edited May 18, 2020 by jpd80 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: . Ford still has no idea /desire to deliver affordable BEVs for North America, they’re al exclusive high priced products and that’s the danger I see with this plan. Every manufacturer wants to produce an affordable BEV. But what is an affordable BEV? $20,000, $25,000? Nobody sells an affordable BEV in the U.S., at least now. A Tesla Model 3 costs about $40,000. A Chevy Bolt will cost you about $36,500. The cheapest will be the upcoming VW ID.3 at $32,500. I agree that BEV's are not cheap. But the future is EV, no doubt about that. That being said, ICE will be with us a long, long time. But I really doubt you're going to see many new-from-the-ground-up gas/diesel engines being developed. Tweaks to existing engines maybe, but not new ones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 2 hours ago, mackinaw said: Every manufacturer wants to produce an affordable BEV. But what is an affordable BEV? $20,000, $25,000? Nobody sells an affordable BEV in the U.S., at least now. A Tesla Model 3 costs about $40,000. A Chevy Bolt will cost you about $36,500. The cheapest will be the upcoming VW ID.3 at $32,500. I agree that BEV's are not cheap. But the future is EV, no doubt about that. That being said, ICE will be with us a long, long time. But I really doubt you're going to see many new-from-the-ground-up gas/diesel engines being developed. Tweaks to existing engines maybe, but not new ones. And this is the general wisdom that ICEs are going to be with us much longer than most imagine and as long as BEVs remain $20k or $30K over an ICE equivalent, there won't be a stampede of buyers knocking down the doors to pay double. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 I don't think EV's are the sweet spot. Hybrids and plugins are the sweet spot.......hybrid Explorer and Escape, plug in Aviator, Corsair, and Escape are the present and future along with hybrid F-150. Mach E and EV F-150 are only part of total electric investment, and probably a smaller part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, mackinaw said: Hackett was right. Covid will only accelerate the move to EV's. From PwC: "With demand shrinking and capital constraints mounting, the industry is going to be forced to consolidate the number of powertrain types they choose to develop going forward, said Dietmar Ostermann, a PwC senior partner. "The transition into electric vehicles will actually be accelerated, because the industry cannot afford too many alternative propulsion systems going on at the same time," Ostermann, PwC's U.S. automotive advisory leader, said during a webinar hosted by Automotive News on Thursday." Yes sir, thank you for that info from PwC mackinaw. Jim Hackett said earlier this year "I don’t think this company can keep straddling the old and new worlds forever". The automotive industry's "new world", is 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with mobility services an integral part. Hackett's duty is to position today's Ford to get to that new world end game as soon as possible. Edited May 18, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir, thank you for that info from PwC mackinaw. Jim Hackett said earlier this year "I don’t think this company can keep straddling the old and new worlds forever". The automotive industry's "new world", is 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with mobility services an integral part. Hackett's duty is to position today's Ford to get to that new world end game as soon as possible. With respect, Ford cannot transition to BEV while it maintains high price exclusivity. If Jim Hackett tries to give up on ICEs too quickly, he'll discover two things: 1. BEVs cannot support their own funding. 2. Without ICE truck sales to support BEVs, the whole show will gold up quick. ICEs and hybrids are going to be with us for at least a decade or so. Edited May 18, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, jpd80 said: With respect, Ford cannot transition to BEV while it maintains high price exclusivity. If Jim Hackett tries to give up on ICEs too quickly, he'll discover two things: 1. BEVs cannot find themselves 2. Without ICE truck sales to support BEVs, the whole show will told up. For sure...And as to Hackett's 100% statement?....maybe in his great grand childrens lifetime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said: For sure...And as to Hackett's 100% statement?....maybe in his great grand childrens lifetime. Hackett statement about old and new worlds during Ford's earning call didn't mention any specific timelines for getting Ford fully into the "new world". It was more an acknowledgement of the huge challenge Hackett faces trying to get Ford fit again, with short term goals competing against long term ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 9 hours ago, FordBuyer said: I don't think EV's are the sweet spot. Hybrids and plugins are the sweet spot.......hybrid Explorer and Escape, plug in Aviator, Corsair, and Escape are the present and future along with hybrid F-150. Mach E and EV F-150 are only part of total electric investment, and probably a smaller part. Only if you're a rational, intelligent thinker who can see that a PHEV can reduce gasoline usage and emissions by up to 80% or more while having none of the drawbacks of a BEV regarding charging, range and even cost. If the goal is really to reduce gasoline and emissions then PHEVs would be the #1 play. But they're not sexy and they don't further most BEV agendas. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 38 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said: For sure...And as to Hackett's 100% statement?....maybe in his great grand childrens lifetime. I don't think he said 100% and I'm pretty sure he includes hybrids and PHEVs with electrification and the "new world" not just BEVs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 1 hour ago, akirby said: I don't think he said 100% and I'm pretty sure he includes hybrids and PHEVs with electrification and the "new world" not just BEVs. I believe hybrids and plugins are a huge part of that $11 billion investment. Also, a huge battery plant will have to be built and manned if Ford expects to build and sell hundreds of thousands of them someday. Probably more than one. The Rawsonville plant sure isn't enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 4 hours ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir, thank you for that info from PwC mackinaw. Jim Hackett said earlier this year "I don’t think this company can keep straddling the old and new worlds forever". The automotive industry's "new world", is 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with mobility services an integral part. Hackett's duty is to position today's Ford to get to that new world end game as soon as possible. If that is his plan, this company is fucked. They can't even make an affordable and profitable ICE vehicle, they're not going to magically start making cheap EVs with their holy 10% profit margins. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, probowler said: If that is his plan, this company is fucked. They can't even make an affordable and profitable ICE vehicle, they're not going to magically start making cheap EVs with their holy 10% profit margins. Most honest post I've read on this site in months....and funniest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, probowler said: If that is his plan, this company is fucked. They can't even make an affordable and profitable ICE vehicle, they're not going to magically start making cheap EVs with their holy 10% profit margins. You misread that post. Hacket never said 100% EV with 100% autonomous vehicles. That's rperez's delusion. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 4 hours ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir, thank you for that info from PwC mackinaw. Jim Hackett said earlier this year "I don’t think this company can keep straddling the old and new worlds forever". The automotive industry's "new world", is 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with mobility services an integral part. Hackett's duty is to position today's Ford to get to that new world end game as soon as possible. But you can't just flip a switch and immediately everything is BEVs that are cost competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 To be clear: there is not an auto company that continues to tout "100%" autonomous anymore, except in very controlled settings/environments. There's a reason that GM and the others have gone strangely silent in recent months about their autonomy plans, after having 'engineered by press release' for several prior years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, Harley Lover said: To be clear: there is not an auto company that continues to tout "100%" autonomous anymore, except in very controlled settings/environments. There's a reason that GM and the others have gone strangely silent in recent months about their autonomy plans, after having 'engineered by press release' for several prior years. Well maybe you missed this development from GM last week-they are moving aggressively into autonomous.... The 2021 Cadillac Escalade is shaping up as General Motors’ leading technology platform. Unveiled in Los Angeles and New York this week, the wow-factor feature is a 38-inch OLED display in front of the driver. The big SUV also has a raft of driver-assist and safety features standard or available, most notably the second generation of Super Cruise, the Level 2 autonomous driving that locates the car precisely on the road because Cadillac has lidar-mapped 200,000 miles of US and Canada highways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 35 minutes ago, probowler said: If that is his plan, this company is fucked. They can't even make an affordable and profitable ICE vehicle, they're not going to magically start making cheap EVs with their holy 10% profit margins. Good points probowler sir, Ford is in dire straits as it is. I still trust that Hackett can pull off the delicate balancing act between keeping Ford alive to close out its final chapter in the "old world" of ICE vehicles, and preparing the company to be a strong player in the "new world". But the slow pace of the fitness initiatives at Ford so far must be frustrating to investors, employees, and Ford family members. Henry Ford III's job at Ford Investor Relations must be almost as tough as Hackett's job as CEO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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