California shakes up auto industry, says all vans and trucks must be electric by 2024

[slemke]

11 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

There is something like 22 states that use CA Emission standards...so I'd figure they might follow their lead in BEVs. Massachusetts being the first. 

Same here.  I would have expected a few of them to show solidarity with the senators from CA in support of a national timeline.

[slemke]

10 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Doesn't appear the California senators think their state is isolated. They are concerned that without a consistently strong commitment to promoting BEV throughout the country, the U.S. is less likely to be a global leader in sustainability for the transportation sector.

 

Speaking of China, that country is the biggest competitor for the U.S. for BEV technology and production. Mark Phelan from Detroit Free Press said a couple years ago about BEV "The U.S. auto industry risks becoming an isolated technical backwater while China surges into the global lead in a technology its government has targeted as a key to leadership for the 21st Century." China EV production is booming while U.S. efforts stagnate (freep.com)

US has been out of step with most of the world on transportation since shortly after the automobile was invented.  How dare Henry Ford make a car for the masses....they were for the elite.  How dare Americans drive huge cars and trucks with big V8s.  How dare Americans shun cars and drive trucks and SUVs.  How dare Americans want to own their own vehicles and not use public transportation or ride sharing services (I’m talking about the services car mfgs were offering not Uber).

 

Being out of step with the rest of the world on BEVs will be nothing new.  The best selling vehicles in this country are full sized trucks that aren’t sold in large numbers anywhere else.  Full sized trucks are also the most profitable vehicles.

 

 

[Joe771476]

Can an electric powered fire truck pumper be durable and reliable enough to pump 500 gallons per minute of water at a fire scene for up to 5 hours at a time for in some cities might be as much as 3 times a week?  Can an electric motor provide enough thrust to power a 747 for 6 to 10 hours?   I wonder.

[rperez817]

On 3/23/2021 at 10:30 PM, slemke said:

Being out of step with the rest of the world on BEVs will be nothing new.  

 

If "being out of step with the rest of the world" means "USA becomes the clear leader worldwide in BEV technology development and deployment for passenger cars, light trucks, and commercial vehicles", that would be a great thing. 

 

I'm rooting for team USA and hope that Mark Phelan can someday write "The U.S. auto industry has surged into the global lead in BEV technology and deployment in all sectors, while the global automotive industry in the rest of the world risks becoming an isolated technical backwater".

 

 

[92merc]

The US can't go by what the rest of the world is doing.  I'll bet most Europeans don't travel anywhere near as far as Americans do.  Hell, even in our own country it isn't consistent.  What works in California won't work in North Dakota.

[rperez817]

16 minutes ago, 92merc said:

The US can't go by what the rest of the world is doing. I'll bet most Europeans don't travel anywhere near as far as Americans do.  Hell, even in our own country it isn't consistent.  

 

I think that the California ZEV standards for commercial vehicles (subject of this thread) are actually ahead of the rest of world. It's good how California set the benchmark in this case, not China or EU. Hopefully the U.S. as a whole will do this too with future regulatory actions and technology development activities for ZEV/BEV, for passenger and commercial vehicles alike.

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, 92merc said:

The US can't go by what the rest of the world is doing.  I'll bet most Europeans don't travel anywhere near as far as Americans do.  Hell, even in our own country it isn't consistent.  What works in California won't work in North Dakota.

 

Considering that most states are the same size or bigger than entire European countries, what works there won't necessarily work here, yet some are hellbent on making that so.

[7Mary3]

I will not be surprised if the California 'zero emissions' mandate is adopted by the Federal Government sooner rather than later.  

[Footballfan]

4 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I will not be surprised if the California 'zero emissions' mandate is adopted by the Federal Government sooner rather than later.  

 

8 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

I think that the California ZEV standards for commercial vehicles (subject of this thread) are actually ahead of the rest of world. It's good how California set the benchmark in this case, not China or EU. Hopefully the U.S. as a whole will do this too with future regulatory actions and technology development activities for ZEV/BEV, for passenger and commercial vehicles alike.

Why the hell would anyone want to follow a state government as broken or crooked as California's? 

[7Mary3]

8 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Considering that most states are the same size or bigger than entire European countries, what works there won't necessarily work here, yet some are hellbent on making that so.

 

Yes.  Like California.  Won't happen tomorrow, but if a BEV like the new Hummer can have a 350+ mile range and can be recharged in 20 minutes, it will work.  And 1,000 H.P. will just be icing on the cake.

Edited March 29, 2021 by 7Mary3

[Footballfan]

7 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Considering that most states are the same size or bigger than entire European countries, what works there won't necessarily work here, yet some are hellbent on making that so.

I think it was PT Barnum that said "the bigger the lie the more people will believe it."  Will electric vehicles have a role?  Of course.  But it takes money- and lots of it- to replace an established and reliable energy network like oil.  If Californians love the rolling blackouts and high energy prices now, wait until your charging 20 million vehicles a day.  

[7Mary3]

2 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

I think it was PT Barnum that said "the bigger the lie the more people will believe it."  Will electric vehicles have a role?  Of course.  But it takes money- and lots of it- to replace an established and reliable energy network like oil.  If Californians love the rolling blackouts and high energy prices now, wait until your charging 20 million vehicles a day.  

 

The rolling blackouts are done to reduce the chance of forest fires caused by downed power lines in windy (Santa Ana) conditions in certain high-risk areas.  They are not the result of a lack of capacity at present.  The utility companies will be able to meet the challenge as the phase-in of BEV's will be gradual.  I ought to know, near 40 years in the energy business.  In California. 

[rmc523]

12 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

The rolling blackouts are done to reduce the chance of forest fires caused by downed power lines in windy (Santa Ana) conditions in certain high-risk areas.  They are not the result of a lack of capacity at present.  The utility companies will be able to meet the challenge as the phase-in of BEV's will be gradual.  I ought to know, near 40 years in the energy business.  In California. 

 

I mean, either way, that's going to affect BEV charging - whether it's a capacity issue or a self-induced shut down.

[rperez817]

5 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I will not be surprised if the California 'zero emissions' mandate is adopted by the Federal Government sooner rather than later.  

 

Yes sir 7Mary3, that is very likely. Federal government and CARB have harmonized regulations in the past. For example, EPA Tier 3 and California LEV rules for light duty vehicle emissions are now the same. U.S. EPA Tier 3 and California LEV III Rulemakings | MECA

[mink]

Doesn't CA have problems with not enough electricity now. Wonder what's going to happen when all the rigs are plugged into the power grid. Maybe a coal fire plant could help out with that.?

[7Mary3]

37 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

I mean, either way, that's going to affect BEV charging - whether it's a capacity issue or a self-induced shut down.

 

True now, but as improvements are made to the grid in high risk areas it will become less of a factor.  Funny this is being mentioned, a good friend of mine is working on these projects as we speak. In any event if there is a blackout, you are not pumping any gas or diesel either. 

[rperez817]

11 hours ago, Footballfan said:

Why the hell would anyone want to follow a state government as broken or crooked as California's? 

 

All governments have broken and crooked aspects, that is part of the human condition. In the case of the ZEV requirements for commercial vehicles as mentioned in the OP, a few reasons the U.S. federal government should match California's standards are.

1. California for years has been the trendsetter among U.S. states for regulations that focus on sustainability in the transportation sector
2. The global automotive industry's end goal for both passenger cars & light trucks and for commercial vehicles is 100% ZEV
3. The U.S. automotive industry, and the government bodies in the U.S. that regulate that industry, now have an opportunity to become the world leaders when it comes to achieving the end goal mentioned in #2. That requires a unified effort nationwide.

[llinthicum1]

The Mach-e is a beautiful vehicle and is an example of what a good BEV could be.   But, there are a lot of issues that BEVs must overcome before they will be accepted by the mass market.  These issues will take time, so a 20-30 year time frame isn't unrealistic.

 

1) Range anxiety.  Consumers are not going to be comfortable driving a vehicle with less than 300 mile range.

2) Lack of charging stations.  This couples with range anxiety.  The infrastructure for BEVs has a long way to go.   In addition, not everyone has a garage where they can charge their vehicle overnight, i.e., what do people do who live in apartments?

3) Length of time to charge batteries.  Again, this goes with range anxiety and lack of infrastructure.   Consumers aren't going to wait 45 minutes to an hour or more at a charging station.

4) Cost.  A Mach-e is a very nice vehicle.  But for $56,000 for an extended range and AWD, is out of reach for most consumers.

5) Technology.  Battery technology is in middle of changing.  With the introduction of solid state batteries in the next 5 years or so,  could obsolete current BEVs.  

 

Incentives and government policy aren't enough to move consumers into BEVs.   BEVs have to be as convenient as ICE powered vehicles.  They also need style, features, performance, etc. that consumers want to pay for.  

[Schpark]

13 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

True now, but as improvements are made to the grid in high risk areas it will become less of a factor.  Funny this is being mentioned, a good friend of mine is working on these projects as we speak. In any event if there is a blackout, you are not pumping any gas or diesel either. 

 

Unless the station has a backup generator.

[llinthicum1]

Current issues associated with BEVs will continue to improve and be resolved.   But, it will take a lot longer than the end of this decade.   

[slemke]

19 hours ago, llinthicum1 said:

Current issues associated with BEVs will continue to improve and be resolved.   But, it will take a lot longer than the end of this decade.   

Exactly.  Better to work the bugs out in CA before going all in.  Various parts of the country (densely populated, mild climate, wealthier) are good places to start.  That will give additional time for the infrastructure to be built out in rural areas just like it did for telecommunications, the electric grid, interstate highway system, and rail lines.  Start with the best return on investment and work your way down as technology improves and the cost goes down.  If it doesn’t improve, keep ice around for where it isn’t economically feasible to be bev.  Biofuels can be used to reduce emissions as needed.  I’m not going to complain about wider availability of higher ethanol blends with multiple ecoboost engines in the household.  They can really take advantage of the higher octane.

[Chrisgb]

On 3/28/2021 at 8:24 AM, Joe771476 said:

Can an electric powered fire truck pumper be durable and reliable enough to pump 500 gallons per minute of water at a fire scene for up to 5 hours at a time for in some cities might be as much as 3 times a week?  Can an electric motor provide enough thrust to power a 747 for 6 to 10 hours?   I wonder.

We'll probably start seeing electrical hookups alongside fire hydrants. California will likely shut down air travel (MA first to follow suit) as airport districts are among the highest contributors of greenhouse gasses in urban areas. We have Zoom, FaceTime, Skype, VR etc. No need to go anywhere anyway.

[FordBuyer]

6 hours ago, slemke said:

Exactly.  Better to work the bugs out in CA before going all in.  Various parts of the country (densely populated, mild climate, wealthier) are good places to start.  That will give additional time for the infrastructure to be built out in rural areas just like it did for telecommunications, the electric grid, interstate highway system, and rail lines.  Start with the best return on investment and work your way down as technology improves and the cost goes down.  If it doesn’t improve, keep ice around for where it isn’t economically feasible to be bev.  Biofuels can be used to reduce emissions as needed.  I’m not going to complain about wider availability of higher ethanol blends with multiple ecoboost engines in the household.  They can really take advantage of the higher octane.

 

Porsche says it already has a synthetic fuel with no emissions. While Porsche has the Taycan and soon a Taycan station wagon, it says the 911 and Boxster/Cayman will remain ICE using their new synthetic fuel well into the future. 

[Deanh]

4 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Porsche says it already has a synthetic fuel with no emissions. While Porsche has the Taycan and soon a Taycan station wagon, it says the 911 and Boxster/Cayman will remain ICE using their new synthetic fuel well into the future. 

^this....an alternative to electric could quite possibly mean the continued existence of the ICE as we know it....

[slemke]

16 hours ago, Deanh said:

^this....an alternative to electric could quite possibly mean the continued existence of the ICE as we know it....

But, is it allowed under the BEV mandate?  I’m guessing based on the work being done with fuel cells that it might.  I haven’t read CA’s mandate, nor do I care to.  Other biofuels may qualify also.  
 

if synthetic and biofuels are allowed, it calls into question the decision any mfg makes to drop ice development.