Hackett to retire 1 October, Jim Farley to become CEO

[PREMiERdrum]

I don't know who needs to hear this, but:

 

Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, and Taurus were canceled. 

 

Bronco Sport, Bronco 2/4dr, Mustang Mach E, Fusion CUV, Maverick, and 3* other unannounced projects are coming online. 

 

Ford is largely capacity constrained, but these new products will maximize the profitability of each production unit capacity that they have. 

 

FWIW, there were 2 quick options to get a traditional sedan (compact and midsize) back into the NA if the market demanded it. Obviously those plans are still collecting dust. 

[Oac98]

Hopefully OAC and Flat Rock get more product to maximize potential. That other plant in Mexico only has Mach E, I’m sure they will get more product.

[akirby]

8 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

Stock price is a terrible indicator of success (or lack thereof) when it comes to Ford, and will remain so while their current stock structure remains intact. Through that structure, the Ford Family retains control of Ford, which means that the big venture capitalists and institutional investors will stay away because they can't buy the one thing they actually want: control. That does keep the stock price artificially low, but it also keeps the control in the hands of people who give a sh*t about the long-term health of the company.

Look at any company that is making business decisions on the basis of short term stock price and I’ll show you a company that’s going out of business.   It rewards short term cost cutting and higher profits but those same decisions hurt long term health and stability.  E.g you stop investing in your IT infrastructure and the equipment gets old and starts to break down.  You stop doing software development so your software falls behind the competition.  And it’s hard to recover from that position.  
 

If you make long term decisions and stick with them and execute showing stable profits and investing in future products and technology then the stock price will follow albeit much more slowly.

 

Just remember - you can make just as much money on a stock that loses $10/share as one that gains $10/share.  

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

I don't know who needs to hear this, but:

 

Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, and Taurus were canceled. 

 

Bronco Sport, Bronco 2/4dr, Mustang Mach E, Fusion CUV, Maverick, and 3* other unannounced projects are coming online. 

 

Ford is largely capacity constrained, but these new products will maximize the profitability of each production unit capacity that they have. 

 

FWIW, there were 2 quick options to get a traditional sedan (compact and midsize) back into the NA if the market demanded it. Obviously those plans are still collecting dust. 

Strictly speaking, Ford is not capacity constrained, it chooses to have its four main plants on three shifts for increased efficiency.

All of the other vehicle manufacturing plants are on one or two shifts. So there is some spare capacity but Ford chooses not to

build lower profit vehicles and who can blame them.

Edited August 10, 2020 by jpd80

[akirby]

2 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

 

Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, and Taurus were canceled. 

 

Bronco Sport, Bronco 2/4dr, Mustang Mach E, Fusion CUV, Maverick, and 3* other unannounced projects are coming online. 

What?  They’re replacing 4 models with 8 new ones?  Not possible.  Ford is shrinking and cost cutting their way to oblivion. 
 

You should also throw Ranger in there since it took the focus plant.

 

So they’re trading around 500k units of cars with probably 750k and going from an average profit margin of 1% to something closer to 8% (at least) and with much higher ATPs and revenue.

 

500k * $25k ATP * 1% = $125M

 

750k * $35k ATP * 8% = $2.1B
 

N there is some additional overhead With 8 models instead of 4.  But the profit difference is huge.  And if you push ATPs higher and get the margin closer to 10% it’s even better.

[akirby]

3 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Ford chooses not to

build lower profit vehicles and who can blame them.

I can name 2 or 3......

[PREMiERdrum]

47 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Strictly speaking, Ford is not capacity constrained, it chooses to have its four main plants on three shifts for increased efficiency.

All of the other vehicle manufacturing plants are on one or two shifts. So there is some spare capacity but Ford chooses not to

build lower profit vehicles and who can blame them.

 

Should things recover in a reasonable timeline and the current product cadence continues, there won't be much excess capacity to speak of. 

 

I doubt any plant will be running only 1 shift a couple years out. 

[Oac98]

54 minutes ago, akirby said:

What?  They’re replacing 4 models with 8 new ones?  Not possible.  Ford is shrinking and cost cutting their way to oblivion. 
 

You should also throw Ranger in there since it took the focus plant.

 

So they’re trading around 500k units of cars with probably 750k and going from an average profit margin of 1% to something closer to 8% (at least) and with much higher ATPs and revenue.

 

500k * $25k ATP * 1% = $125M

 

750k * $35k ATP * 8% = $2.1B
 

N there is some additional overhead With 8 models instead of 4.  But the profit difference is huge.  And if you push ATPs higher and get the margin closer to 10% it’s even better.

Let’s not forget that the flex, mkt, mkz and soon the continental  are gone as well. Yes 3 of them are Lincoln’s I get all of that but there has to be other Lincoln’s in the pipeline as well. 

[PREMiERdrum]

6 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

 there has to be other Lincoln’s in the pipeline as well. 

 

Bigly. 

[Oac98]

2 minutes ago, PREMiERdrum said:

 

Bigly. 

I figured that because they will only have the 4 crossovers remaining. 

[rperez817]

12 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

Most auto stocks have been stagnant for years because there isn't much growth or profit margin. So the real challenge going forward is to be seen as an industrial TECHNOLOGY company, and not just a traditional industrial company. Hope Farley can start that process.

 

Well said FordBuyer sir. For a long time, Ford technology has been "reminiscent of cheap china knock-offs" as snooter mentioned in another thread, or full of design and engineering problems (like the 1st version of MyFordTouch). Hackett said earlier this year that Ford cannot keep straddling the old and new worlds forever. Part of Ford's old world was a lack of technological leadership. That lack of leadership also played a role in Ford's stagnation or decline over several decades.

 

But that's starting to change. Hackett brought "design thinking" into the Ford organization. This helps bring people and technology together better. And Farley spent time working with Argo AI and some of Ford's other new technology ventures. Also, Farley earned a degree in computer science.

 

I think Farley is the right person to improve Ford's technology development process more in the years to come.

Edited August 10, 2020 by rperez817

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, Oacjay98 said:

Let’s not forget that the flex, mkt, mkz and soon the continental  are gone as well. Yes 3 of them are Lincoln’s I get all of that but there has to be other Lincoln’s in the pipeline as well. 

 

Let's hope so as Lincoln by end of year is down to just 4 vehicles and maybe 3 if Nautilus has no future. I would expect Lincoln to get a MachE version to replace the Nautilus though. Also the Aviator platform could be used to do a sport sedan Panamera style with electric motors for added oomph.

[PREMiERdrum]

12 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Let's hope so as Lincoln by end of year is down to just 4 vehicles and maybe 3 if Nautilus has no future. I would expect Lincoln to get a MachE version to replace the Nautilus though. Also the Aviator platform could be used to do a sport sedan Panamera style with electric motors for added oomph.

 

Nautilus (and Edge) continue, NG models are in development. 

 

There are 2 new Lincoln products coming in the next 3 years. Both are worth getting excited about. 

[Oac98]

18 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Let's hope so as Lincoln by end of year is down to just 4 vehicles and maybe 3 if Nautilus has no future. I would expect Lincoln to get a MachE version to replace the Nautilus though. Also the Aviator platform could be used to do a sport sedan Panamera style with electric motors for added oomph.

Any Mach E version of a Lincoln would not be enough to replace the Nautilus IMO. Glad to hear there is a nex gen Edge Nautilus in development. Also excited to see what Lincoln has up there sleeve. Maybe a Lincoln sports car on a mustang platform with a totally different top hat and features. A Lincoln version of the mustang has been talked about for ages would be nice to see it happen as long as it’s a different beast 

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Well said FordBuyer sir. For a long time, Ford technology has been "reminiscent of cheap china knock-offs" as snooter mentioned in another thread, or full of design and engineering problems (like the 1st version of MyFordTouch). Hackett said earlier this year that Ford cannot keep straddling the old and new worlds forever. Part of Ford's old world was a lack of technological leadership. That lack of leadership also played a role in Ford's stagnation or decline over several decades.

 

But that's starting to change. Hackett brought "design thinking" into the Ford organization. This helps bring people and technology together better. And Farley spent time working with Argo AI and some of Ford's other new technology ventures. Also, Farley earned a degree in computer science.

 

I think Farley is the right person to improve Ford's technology development process more in the years to come.

 

I gotta say you stated it better than me. Ford has spent a lot of money on the Edison Project site and rehab of old train depot continues. That is one huge site and mucho dollars to bring it to fruition. The challenge will be to create something very profitable from it and attract the skills needed to bring it to fruition.

 

 I would like to see Ford change its name to Ford Mobility and Technology Company. It's the 21st Century and time to change.

 

Big time changes are brewing at GM and hopefully at Ford also with the VW Alliance. Would like to see Ford/VW build a huge battery factory so big that they could easily supply their needs and also sell to other customers.

 

To me, the only positive legacy Hackett has is the hook up to VW. Hopefully it will be beneficial to both companies. And the Edison Project if Ford can turn it into something tangible. 

[oacnewbie]

2 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

 

Nautilus (and Edge) continue, NG models are in development. 

 

There are 2 new Lincoln products coming in the next 3 years. Both are worth getting excited about. 

Do you have any insight about Oakville job 1 for 2021 Edge/Nautilus starting Jan 25?
Could Ford be keeping something hush-hush until contract talks are over?

3 weeks of downtime usually means retooling for something new...

 

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

 

Should things recover in a reasonable timeline and the current product cadence continues, there won't be much excess capacity to speak of. 

 

I doubt any plant will be running only 1 shift a couple years out. 

I admire your optimism but a lot of damage has been done to the economy which was already slowing before the virus.

The best Ford can hope for is that sales if  its primary profit earners continue unaffected and work from there.

 

Ford actually limits production  by throttling sales and controlling incentives long before any plant actually becomes capacity

constrained. So whenever  the SAAR is less than 16-17 million, Ford has more than enough capacity. The days of plants like

Louisville producing over 430k vehicles in a single year are not coming back anytime soon.

Edited August 10, 2020 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

20 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I admire your optimism but a lot of damage has been done to the economy which was already slowing before the virus.

The best Ford can hope for is that sales if  its primary profit earners continue unaffected and work from there.

 

Ford actually limits production  by throttling sales and controlling incentives long before any plant actually becomes capacity

constrained. So whenever  the SAAR is less than 16-17 million, Ford has more than enough capacity. The days of plants like

Louisville producing over 430k vehicles in a single year are not coming back anytime soon.

There's also that pesky rumor of FRAP
closing. There's a lot of smoke with that one so there has to be some fire hidden in the smoke 

[jpd80]

17 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There's also that pesky rumor of FRAP
closing. There's a lot of smoke with that one so there has to be some fire hidden in the smoke 

Just typical Ford management, how many times have plans changed in the last three years?

Anyone following Ford would be dizzy looking at product changes, I wonder if Farley will

have his own spin on changing products and locations.

 

If Ford has committed to an evolved Mustang staying at FRAP, they won't want to change that

because it would cost them more to move midway through, yeah?

Edited August 10, 2020 by jpd80

[rmc523]

10 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

I don't know who needs to hear this, but:

 

Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, and Taurus were canceled. 

 

Bronco Sport, Bronco 2/4dr, Mustang Mach E, Fusion CUV, Maverick, and 3* other unannounced projects are coming online. 

 

Ford is largely capacity constrained, but these new products will maximize the profitability of each production unit capacity that they have. 

 

FWIW, there were 2 quick options to get a traditional sedan (compact and midsize) back into the NA if the market demanded it. Obviously those plans are still collecting dust. 

 

Are we talking Ford only products there?  Because we know about the midsize Ford/Lincoln BEVs that are coming.

[bzcat]

 

There are two midsize CUV based on the Mach E platform... one Ford and one Lincoln. These are probably 2022 or early 2023 models. 

 

There is a C2 midsize CUV coming in 2021 (Fusion Active).

 

There is supposedly a new Edge and Nautilus in the work but it's been changed so many times, who know when and what will come of it. We just know that Ford Europe wants something different from Ford China which wants something different from Ford US.

[ausrutherford]

16 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

Actually is was 6 of the top 10 selling vehicles and a 25% market share.

 

And GM used to have over 50% market share...

[ausrutherford]

3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Just typical Ford management, how many times have plans changed in the last three years?

Anyone following Ford would be dizzy looking at product changes, I wonder if Farley will

have his own spin on changing products and locations.

 

If Ford has committed to an evolved Mustang staying at FRAP, they won't want to change that

because it would cost them more to move midway through, yeah?

 

You can probably guess that Farley has had his hand in those changes since he was heir apparent. I wouldn't expect to many changes in plants switching around. 

[jpd80]

I’d prefer change that’s necessary over charging on with a bad decision.

Edited August 11, 2020 by jpd80

[jpd80]

11 hours ago, PREMiERdrum said:

 

Bigly. 

LOL, is that a hint on size or price?

 

I'm not convinced that Ford knows what to do with Lincoln apart from exclusive, over-priced electric vehicles

Edited August 11, 2020 by jpd80