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How Long Vehicles Stay On Dealer Lots


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Methodology

iSeeCars.com analyzed over 4.8 million car sales (model years 2019-2021 for new cars; model years 2015-2019 for used cars) from November 2019 through February 2020 and another set of 4.4 million car sales (same model years) from March through June 2020. Sales made between November 2019 and February 2020 were considered sold during a pre-COVID period; the study focused largely on sales made between March and June 2020. The number of days that each car was listed for sale on iSeeCars.com was aggregated at the model level, and the average days on market for each was mathematically modeled.

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We know nothing about how and where iseecars.com gets their data so we have no idea whether this data is valid or not.  We don't know if they see all vehicles or just a subset.  Maybe they don't include Ford special orders or vehicles that sell within a few days.  Does it include discontinued vehicles?

 

Inconclusive at best.

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23 minutes ago, akirby said:

We know nothing about how and where iseecars.com gets their data so we have no idea whether this data is valid or not.  We don't know if they see all vehicles or just a subset.  Maybe they don't include Ford special orders or vehicles that sell within a few days.  Does it include discontinued vehicles?

 

iseecars.com gets their data from manufacturers, NADA, individual dealerships and other sellers, and vehicle registration databases. iseecars.com specialties are data aggregation and analytics. The founders of iseecars.com did Big Data stuff at SAP and TripAdvisor previously.

 

The The Fastest-Selling New and Used Cars report excludes discontinued vehicles. iseecars.com said "Heavy-duty vehicles, models no longer in production prior to the 2020 model year, and low-volume models were excluded from further analysis".

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47 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

iseecars.com gets their data from manufacturers, NADA, individual dealerships and other sellers, and vehicle registration databases. iseecars.com specialties are data aggregation and analytics. The founders of iseecars.com did Big Data stuff at SAP and TripAdvisor previously.

 

The The Fastest-Selling New and Used Cars report excludes discontinued vehicles. iseecars.com said "Heavy-duty vehicles, models no longer in production prior to the 2020 model year, and low-volume models were excluded from further analysis".

 

That says nothing about whether they are counting vehicles correctly from every mfr.   As an example, some custom ordered vehicles never show up on the dealer's website, so I'm pretty sure they wouldn't show up on iseecars.com.

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7 minutes ago, akirby said:

As an example, some custom ordered vehicles never show up on the dealer's website, so I'm pretty sure they wouldn't show up on iseecars.com.

 

Good example akirby sir. Theoretically, new vehicles like that would appear in manufacturer reports with a status related to sold order or customer order. How exactly iseecars.com does analytics on those transactions I don't know, just that manufacturer reports are one source of data for the company.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:


I rest my case.

 

The results of the iseecars.com analysis confirms what other sources like Automotive News have reported for years. For new car sales, Subaru, Toyota, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz consistently do the best job of matching supply with demand, allowing those brands' dealerships to minimize the amount of time vehicles spend on the lot. On the other side of the spectrum, Ford, Lincoln, Mitsubishi, some GM brands, and some FCA brands tend to have much higher than average days inventory or days to sell numbers.

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11 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

The results of the iseecars.com analysis confirms what other sources like Automotive News have reported for years. For new car sales, Subaru, Toyota, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz consistently do the best job of matching supply with demand, allowing those brands' dealerships to minimize the amount of time vehicles spend on the lot. On the other side of the spectrum, Ford, Lincoln, Mitsubishi, some GM brands, and some FCA brands tend to have much higher than average days inventory or days to sell numbers.


And?  If I’m selling 1 million trucks a year what difference does it make whether they sit on the lot 10 days or 80 days?

 

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4 hours ago, akirby said:

We know nothing about how and where iseecars.com gets their data so we have no idea whether this data is valid or not.  We don't know if they see all vehicles or just a subset.  Maybe they don't include Ford special orders or vehicles that sell within a few days.  Does it include discontinued vehicles?

 

Inconclusive at best.

Mostly lower volume nameplates at the top of the list.

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26 minutes ago, akirby said:


And?  If I’m selling 1 million trucks a year what difference does it make whether they sit on the lot 10 days or 80 days?

 

 

It makes a huge difference to automakers and dealers. Unsold new car inventory resulting from high number of days to sell/days inventory is extremely expensive for both. For automakers, it means higher costs for advertising, rebates, and other sales incentives. For dealers it means dramatically increased floorplan expenses.

 

It's no coincidence that there's considerable overlap between the brands that sell fastest according to iseecars.com and the brands that ranked highest in NADA Dealer Attitude Survey.

 

The vehicle brands dealers ranked highest in the summer 2019 National Automobile Dealers Association's Dealer Attitude Survey:
1. Lexus
2. Toyota
3. Honda
4. Subaru
5. Porsche
6. Mercedes-Benz
7. Kia
8. Volvo
9. Hyundai
10. BMW

 

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5 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

Here in central FL, there are a lot of new 2018 and 2019 Ford vehicles sitting on Ford lots. Mostly Ecosports, Fusions, and Escapes.

 

Our dealership inventory is currently only about 2/3's of what it would normally be at this time of the year. Part of it is conservative inventory planning the past 4 months along with better than expected sales in June and July. Obviously, there's nothing normal with market conditions this year and it's also a presidential election year. Sales in September and October usually take a hit before a presidential election as buyers wait to see the election results. 

 

We haven't had a 2018MY vehicle in stock in over a year and only have (4) 2019's left. EcoSport inventory is now down to about half of what it was and closer to our target level, Edge inventory is a bit short, Escape far less than it was partially reflecting reduced sales/leases of the 2020MY's, Explorer a bit light due to strong sales, Fusion inventory heavy due to balance out and far above what I'd prefer, only 1 Mustang in stock,  Ranger inventory half what is was due to increased sales in June and July, F-150 inventory slightly below our average, only 1 Super Duty in stock.  

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Very interesting data. I believe this is the same analysis that led to the article I saw the other day showing the Blazer a hot seller which surprised me.  The Telluride as number two is no shock at all, it’s just that good.  Interesting that the Palisade is number 5.  I wonder if that’s just because the styling is a bit more “out there” 
 

 

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On 8/15/2020 at 12:43 PM, akirby said:

Just for fun I checked a dealer in Orlando - greenway ford.  They have no 2018s and only 4 2019s - 2 stripper f150s, 1 Flex and 1 Ranger.  

 

Key Scales out of Leesburg has about 18 unsold '18 and '19 new vehicles and Village/Ocala Ford near Ocala has over 30 '19 new vehicles in inventory. I guess I could look up Mullinax which has over 2,000 vehicles in stock, but these two will do.

 

 

 

 

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On 8/14/2020 at 9:28 PM, FordBuyer said:

Here in central FL, there are a lot of new 2018 and 2019 Ford vehicles sitting on Ford lots. Mostly Ecosports, Fusions, and Escapes.

 

It's such a shame -the Escape.  The vehicle that for all purpose 'invented' the now hottest segment in auto sales, languishes in the basement close to last place...

Edited by Kev-Mo
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21 hours ago, Kev-Mo said:

 

It's such a shame -the Escape.  The vehicle that for all purpose 'invented' the now hottest segment in auto sales, languishes in the basement close to last place...

 

As I stated before-it's the styling. Those on here can make excuses all day long-but that thing isn't selling because of the way it looks.

Even some of the more "polarizing"designs (Hyundai Kona, Palisades, etc.,) are selling.

 

I predicted a free fall on sales for the Escape over two months ago.

Edited by CKNSLS
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Ford built 25,000 Escapes last month, they better start selling them.

 

On the OP topic, 

The analysis is restricted to just 4.8 million "cars" over MY19-MY21, total vehicle sales in that period is ten times the number.

So while it paints a picture looking in one direction, the reality of vehicles turning on lots  is quite different.

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