akirby Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Why pick on him?? He is one of the more thoughtful, learned posters on here. You can banter on about the semantics of what the word trouble means, but Ford is not out of the woods yet. Too early to know yet as hopeful would be a better word to use. Hopeful, but uncertain as reflected in the disappointing stock price and no guidance on any dividend date. Great news about Ford earnings, but one quarter is not a bellweather for anything. Uncertainty is the best description. Because he says things that are blatantly false and refuses to acknowledge information to the contrary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, FR739 said: The fact is the death rate has plummeted from this and these lockdowns and mask mandates have done little to nothing to “curb the spread”. My state and our moron governor implemented a mask mandate months ago and it had zero effect on the number of cases yet deaths are way down from the peak. Has it hit the elderly harder of course (packing elderly into nursing homes didn’t work that well). But for the vast majority of people it’s not that bad. The effects of lockdowns, not sending children to school, etc are going to be far worse. And most old people would rather get COVID and be able to see their family than not being able to see them. And with that I’m done on COVID. GOOD! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: There is reason to be hopeful with Bronco, new F-150, and Mach E and Sport, but Ford by no means is out of the woods yet. As has been said already, Farley knows this and has stated as much. Meanwhile, God knows how much more the Focus and Explorer launch fiascos will cost over coming years. Why are they in the woods? Are they losing money? Have they cut the new product pipeline or cut spending? Is F series in trouble? Are they ignoring commercial markets? With Mach-e, Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick about to launch along with current performance the future looks bright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, akirby said: says things that are blatantly false and refuses to acknowledge information to the contrary. That's a duty for moderators on this site. Thanks for demonstrating your expertise with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: There is reason to be hopeful with Bronco, new F-150, and Mach E and Sport, but Ford by no means is out of the woods yet. As has been said already, Farley knows this and has stated as much. Meanwhile, God knows how much more the Focus and Explorer launch fiascos will cost over coming years. Yes but the new F-150, Bronco, Bronco Sport and Mustang Mach-E are just the start of the new and next generation vehicles that Ford is producing to secure it's future success. No automotive company is "out of the woods" in today's Covid-19 situation and/or the constantly changing market. Ford has a plan going forward and is executing it according to its plan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, akirby said: Once you understand that you can make just as much money in the stock market on a stock that loses value you understand how little the stock market has to do with actual company health and performance. I mean, seriously - what impact does it have on Ford whether the stock is $8 or $80? Absolutely nothing. The only influence a low stock price has on Ford is it's ability to borrow cash and the interest rate charged on borrowings. I think this is why the wall street analysts are pissed at Ford, they can't influence decisions because people who own Ford stock have no influence over Ford's operations. If people buy Ford stock, they're along for the ride. All this year, the predictions on Ford's quarterly results have underestimated the market strength that still exists. Most of last quarter's good result came from strong F Series sales and other vehicles not dragging the result down. From that, I would say that Ford is most definitely out of the woods (code for wounding itself) and looking at a much brighter future in 2021. Edited October 29, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Why pick on him?? He is one of the more thoughtful, learned posters on here........ Hard for me to take seriously anybody who says that 100% of all vehicles sold by 2040 will be EV's. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: The only influence a low stock price has on Ford is it's ability to borrow cash and the interest rate charged on borrowings. I think this is why the wall street analysts are pissed at Ford, they can't influence decisions because people who own Ford stock have no influence over Ford's operations. If people buy Ford stock, they're along for the ride. Wow. Ford has lost most of its profit margin the last couple years and is basically exchanging dollars resulting in super low stock price. Even FCA has a significantly higher profit margin and GM is pulling further away in every metric. That being said, I agree that there are hopeful signs. But there is uncertainty also with covid. It is not under control here and Ford is vulnerable in Europe that is starting to shutdown. Covid has mutated from Spain and is even more contagious now. Seems to me Ford has a huge plant in Valencia, Spain. An d experts say we are a out three weeks.behind Europe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 No doubt Ford has some challenges. They're carrying more debt than many people like, but you have to trust the structural changes that Hackett put into place will pay off over the next few years. But let's not spin the third quarter results as something bad. Ford blew away every Wall Street estimate. And remember that back in March, they were forecasting a loss of up to five billion dollars for 2020. Now they're forecasting a slight loss, and they even suggested they may break even. Not bad for a failing company. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Ford has lost most of its profit margin the last couple years Close to 10% margin last quarter. Thems shrinking margins I tell ya! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 46 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Close to 10% margin last quarter. Thems shrinking margins I tell ya! Look at the year, not the quarter. Ford is forecasting for 4th quarter anywhere from $500 million loss to break even because of new vehicle launch costs. Ford did not make a shitload of money for all of 2020. If they did, Ford stock would be in $13-15 range instead of where it is now. Now if Covid miraculously just disappears like Trump keeps telling us, then maybe Ford will be a $10+ stock with a dividend and some momentum going forward. I would imagine the Ford Family is getting mighty impatient with Ford stock and no dividend. A $100 billion offer from VW in cash and stock for its truck and van business may look tempting if Ford is unable to get it in gear in next few years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) If Rivian goes public, Ford's stock will go up just by virtue of being one of the largest shareholder. So stop talking about stock price... it is really meaningless. The reason Ford stock price is in the shitter mostly has to do with the fact that it is a family owned and controlled business. Investors don't see a lot of upside because they know Ford family will get its way no matter what. As I pointed out before, Ford family ownership means a couple of things but one of them is that Ford is not a takeover target. And that puts a damper on stock price. And Ford's management has publicly stated they don't want to grow the business - they want to manage yield and protect profit margin. So that's another reason why investors don't like the stock in the current investment climate that favors growth stock. But on the other hand, at least pre-Covid, Ford was a great value/dividend stock... steady cash flow and predictable business model. Edited October 29, 2020 by bzcat 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YT90SC Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 22 hours ago, jcartwright99 said: You sure about that? Yes. HUGE amount of warranty claims. LOTS of buybacks as blownsmoke said. Has Ford addressed some of the early issues? Yes. Beyond the atrocious QC we have seen on nearly every single one we have sold, I fear that design flaws will always plague them. What is worse, since COVID, everything you will probably need to repair one of these buckets is on backorder. "A" clutch TSB parts? Backorder. Cameras? Backorder. APIMs? Backorder. Trans coolers? Backorder.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Ford has room for improvement especially with interiors....used powestroke f350 will be my next purchase and i will rip off all the epa crap....bought my last new ford product in 2013...dont care what they do going forward... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: Look at the year, not the quarter. Ford is forecasting for 4th quarter anywhere from $500 million loss to break even because of new vehicle launch costs. Ford did not make a shitload of money for all of 2020. If they did, Ford stock would be in $13-15 range instead of where it is now. Now if Covid miraculously just disappears like Trump keeps telling us, then maybe Ford will be a $10+ stock with a dividend and some momentum going forward. I would imagine the Ford Family is getting mighty impatient with Ford stock and no dividend. A $100 billion offer from VW in cash and stock for its truck and van business may look tempting if Ford is unable to get it in gear in next few years. Since you keep playing the covid card; you’re also not taking into account the ENTIRE manufacturing arm of the company was shut down for 2 1/2 months and inventory still hasn't recovered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 44 minutes ago, YT90SC said: Yes. HUGE amount of warranty claims. LOTS of buybacks as blownsmoke said. Has Ford addressed some of the early issues? Yes. Beyond the atrocious QC we have seen on nearly every single one we have sold, I fear that design flaws will always plague them. What is worse, since COVID, everything you will probably need to repair one of these buckets is on backorder. "A" clutch TSB parts? Backorder. Cameras? Backorder. APIMs? Backorder. Trans coolers? Backorder.... I had to have the transmission in my Fusion rebuilt last year under warranty. Several of the parts were on backorder and it took almost 3 months to get it done from the day I dropped it off at the dealer to the day I picked it up because their transmission guy was so backed up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: I had to have the transmission in my Fusion rebuilt last year under warranty. Several of the parts were on backorder and it took almost 3 months to get it done from the day I dropped it off at the dealer to the day I picked it up because their transmission guy was so backed up. The backup camera on my new Escape is getting worse, and still no recall notice. Article said Nov. 7, but who knows. Screen is so dark it's useless. On a good note, at least it's minor feature and not basic like an expensive trans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: The backup camera on my new Escape is getting worse, and still no recall notice. Article said Nov. 7, but who knows. Screen is so dark it's useless. On a good note, at least it's minor feature and not basic like an expensive trans. Hope you are able to get the backup camera fixed without too much difficulty FordBuyer. Fortunately, the eCVT transmission in your Escape Hybrid should be very reliable. It's the most trouble free automatic transmission that Ford offers. Older Escape Hybrids used as taxis have racked up 300k, 400k, even half a million miles on the orignal tranny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Hope you are able to get the backup camera fixed without too much difficulty FordBuyer. Fortunately, the eCVT transmission in your Escape Hybrid should be very reliable. It's the most trouble free automatic transmission that Ford offers. Older Escape Hybrids used as taxis have racked up 300k, 400k, even half a million miles on the orignal tranny. Source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said: Source? Consumer Reports annual automotive reliability survey 2009 - 2019, "Transmission Major" and "Transmission Minor" categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 40 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: The backup camera on my new Escape is getting worse, and still no recall notice. Article said Nov. 7, but who knows. Screen is so dark it's useless. On a good note, at least it's minor feature and not basic like an expensive trans. I don't know about you but a backup camera is absolutely something I can do without. If mine ever goes I probably wouldn't fix it until right before trade-in so I don't get charged the fee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolScoop Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, YT90SC said: Beyond the atrocious QC we have seen on nearly every single one we have sold, What are the most common QC issues that you are still seeing? Edited October 30, 2020 by CoolScoop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FR739 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 hours ago, YT90SC said: Yes. HUGE amount of warranty claims. LOTS of buybacks as blownsmoke said. Has Ford addressed some of the early issues? Yes. Beyond the atrocious QC we have seen on nearly every single one we have sold, I fear that design flaws will always plague them. What is worse, since COVID, everything you will probably need to repair one of these buckets is on backorder. "A" clutch TSB parts? Backorder. Cameras? Backorder. APIMs? Backorder. Trans coolers? Backorder.... Yeah no matter how you look at it the new Explorer has been a disaster in terms of quality. I think Ford has taken a page out of Tesla’s book. No matter how broken the vehicle is just ship it and let the dealers/service centers take care of it. I’m not so sure that’s the best route to take. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 11 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Wow. Ford has lost most of its profit margin the last couple years and is basically exchanging dollars resulting in super low stock price. Even FCA has a significantly higher profit margin and GM is pulling further away in every metric. That being said, I agree that there are hopeful signs. But there is uncertainty also with covid. It is not under control here and Ford is vulnerable in Europe that is starting to shutdown. Covid has mutated from Spain and is even more contagious now. Seems to me Ford has a huge plant in Valencia, Spain. An d experts say we are a out three weeks.behind Europe. I just want them to keep focusing on what they're doing right and keep earning profits, Q4 will be down due to new product front end costs but let's see how well Ford can cover the losses amid the current circumstances. Let's see if Ford can hold out until commercial fleet season... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 12 hours ago, bzcat said: If Rivian goes public, Ford's stock will go up just by virtue of being one of the largest shareholder. So the half-billion investment Ford made in Rivian gives them a fraction of the company? If so, any idea what that fraction would be? I've never come across a clear statement regarding what exactly Ford (or Amazon) got out of those many million dollars (except for the partnership in developing new products - which one can do without putting in so much money, I guess...). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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