Results, Fact not Fiction

[akirby]

4 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

I need to verify it but I read recently that all cause mortality in the US was actually down this year compared to what it was predicted to be prior to the pandemic. 

Read my previous reply.  That was fake news.  I pulled the data myself.

[Decker]

The only math or data basis to show and increase to mortality in general would be to show a total of all deaths. Then based of the average for a certain time frame one could state if there was an increase or decrease or leveling. 

 

I too have to find it but I beleive it was stated that data showed no incremental increase in mortality so far this calender year. 

[Decker]

6 minutes ago, akirby said:

Thats why I’m only looking at total deaths compared to previous years which takes the covid classification out of the picture.  There was a big spike in 2018 during a really bad flu season - 65k for a few weeks in January 2018.  Our spikes in April exceeded 70k and lasted longer.  Outside of flu outbreaks the total death data is very consistent year over year.  The last few months we have been below the 2018 flu outbreak numbers but higher than 2019.

 

While it’s possible there could be other causes at play I think it’s almost certain that covid is responsible for the excess deaths regardless of classifications or underlying causes.  I also think we are simply pulling ahead a lot of these deaths and that we’ll see a reduction over the next 2-3 years as a result.

 

I also think the surges are happening in areas that didn’t see them before.  At least in GA we’re not seeing repeat surges in specific areas.

 

But akirby how could you sell commercial air time or print advertising space without manipulation of the public preception. Is it killing people, yes. Is it at the true level or as the talking heads report it? 

[Decker]

COVID has turned breathing into a deadly event and all of us into potential serial killers | Opinion

If I hold my breath when I hug my parents, will that spare me the Greek tragedy of killing them? This mental toll will last long after the threat fades.

Michael J. Stern

Opinion columnist

 

View CommentsAs coronavirus burns an exponential path of destruction across the American terrain, an insidious blanket of shadow damage is quietly unfurling in its name. It’s not just the death and scarred lungs. COVID-19 has turned every man, woman and child into a potential serial killer.

So far, I’ve been fortunate. But not a day goes by that I don’t wonder whether my streak of good luck is about to end, because the person in front of me in the grocery line is wearing a mask below his nose — expelling a cloud of radioactive COVID dust that I cannot escape, short of dropping $50 on the conveyor belt and trying to outrun the security guard.

With alcoholism, opioid addiction or smoking, we stand a fighting chance. But COVID-19 has turned the most necessary part of living — breathing — into a deadly event. If there’s anything that can make us hate our neighbors, it is the possibility that their very existence — every breath they exhale — could be lethal.

 

It’s bad enough that we have to fear contracting a deadly virus from a stranger at T.J.Maxx who reaches for the same decorative throw pillow. What’s worse is the brutal reality that the people we love and trust most in this world bring us the same risk. More risk, because these are the people with whom we have regular and close contact. Any sustained encounter with those we love — kisses, hugs, laughs, conversations — could bring fever, blood clots, fluid-filled lungs, and death.

 

COVID-19 danger is everywhere

It has been less than a year since this plague turned our lives upside down, but the nascent mutation COVID-19 has forced upon how we love has already begun. 

Last week, a friend came by to pick up a piece of cake. As I handed off my culinary effort from the doorway, she told me of her plans to host Thanksgiving dinner for her kids and their families. Despite the mask that covered most of her face, in her eyes I saw that one of America’s most joyous holidays brought only anxiety. As we talked, she confessed that she was terrified that one evening with her children could leave her in need of a hospital bed that is not available, as a COVID-19 surge has packed intensive care units across this country. 

 

For those of us prone to worry, the fallout has been especially rough. Watching people I care about take chances with their health, in ways that would have been considered innocuous at this time last year, has kicked my obsessive-compulsive disorder into high gear. My partner is a Brit who works at a hospital in London. The coronavirus has caused us to cancel six scheduled visits, but I see him twice a day on Skype. The one sure topic of conversation is the argument that follows my head exploding as I watch him unwittingly rub his hands over his face, after spending the day in a hospital that treats COVID-19 patients.

 

Earlier this month, he went home with a fever, after vomiting several times. I was certain he had COVID-19, and I spent the next 24 hours planning what quarantine laws I was going to break as I made my way to London to get to the hospital before he died. Turns out he had a stomach virus. But the face rubbing, the related fights and the angst continue.

Researchers:America's health depends on how fast and well we distribute the COVID vaccine

If there is a fear worse than contracting a deadly illness from someone you love, it is giving a deadly illness to someone you love. A day at work, a bus ride home or a restaurant stop to pick up a carryout dinner is only part of the daily land-mine course that risks exposure to coronavirus. Bringing that bug home to our kids, husband, wife or parents is terrifying. It has left me Googling whether holding my breath when I hug my parents will spare me the Greek tragedy of killing my own mother or father.

 

AIDS taught people love can be fatal 

The heartbreak wrought from a pandemic like COVID-19 is new for most Americans. But it has left gay men of a certain age experiencing déjà vu. When the AIDS virus emerged in the early 1980s in America, people initially believed that they could catch it through casual contact with gay men. Every handshake or kiss on the cheek was a threat. 

It took several years to discover that transmission was primarily through sexual contact. Then, for 30 years, gay men lived with the sobering reality that the most personal form of self-expression, with those we love, was deadly. 

COVID and those with disabilities:Pandemic's impact on the developmentally disabled is preventable

As years turned to decades, and tens of millions of people died from AIDS-related causes worldwide, gay men rewired their souls to survive the emotional wreckage that comes with the knowledge that the most basic component of daily life can be fatal — that love can be lethal. Despite the recent development of drugs that dramatically reduce the risk of HIV transmission, the mental toll remains. We’re familiar with the sound of a heart caving in.  It messes with your mind, even when the threat is gone.

And so, as the world eagerly awaits a vaccine that promises to be rolled out over the next six months, the wrath of the coronavirus will not end with inoculation. The way we look at our own survival, and the dangers faced by those we love, will be stamped with COVID’s dirty fingerprint for years to come. 

Michael J. Stern, a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors, was a federal prosecutor for 25 years in Detroit and Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter: @MichaelJStern1 

 

 

There are medical facilities for this type journalist?.....that is a member of USA Today Board of Contributors along with being a federal prosecutor for 25 years. 

 

How`s it go? tell the lie often, speak of the lie as if it is truthful information and keep them scared as hell. This shit is becoming common place.... whats the other saying about opinions and assholes? 

 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Decker said:

The only math or data basis to show and increase to mortality in general would be to show a total of all deaths. Then based of the average for a certain time frame one could state if there was an increase or decrease or leveling. 

 

I too have to find it but I beleive it was stated that data showed no incremental increase in mortality so far this calender year. 

That’s exactly the data I was quoting - total deaths all causes and there is definitely an increase.  Over 3.1M for 2020 compared to a normal 2.9M or about 200-k250K excess deaths counting all causes.

 

1 hour ago, Decker said:

 

But akirby how could you sell commercial air time or print advertising space without manipulation of the public preception. Is it killing people, yes. Is it at the true level or as the talking heads report it? 

Oh I agree, especially when they only report total cases.  That’s why I look at total deaths and hospital census.

Edited December 1, 2020 by akirby

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

That’s exactly the data I was quoting - total deaths all causes and there is definitely an increase.  Over 3.1M for 2020 compared to a normal 2.9M or about 200-k250K excess deaths counting all causes.

Quoting for reference later. I want to try to find historical numbers going back 10-15 years and see if a 200k jump year over year has happened before without a pandemic. Not really trying to prove a point I'm just curious. 

[akirby]

14 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Quoting for reference later. I want to try to find historical numbers going back 10-15 years and see if a 200k jump year over year has happened before without a pandemic. Not really trying to prove a point I'm just curious. 

Not since 2014.  Biggest jump was around 80k a couple of times,  it some years it only jumped 20-30k.  Look at Deckers post on page 3.

 

Averaged out we have about 8% more deaths this year than what would be normally expected.  It’s about the same as a bad flu season except this one goes on all year even with precautions.

[fuzzymoomoo]

Stu has a point here 

 

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

Then there's this juicy bit from WSJ 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

What if this was only a problem because we panicked? 

[akirby]

2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Then there's this juicy bit from WSJ 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

What if this was only a problem because we panicked? 

Requires a subscription.  What is the gist of the article?

[HotRunrGuy]

15 minutes ago, akirby said:

Requires a subscription.  What is the gist of the article?

 

Probably the same article.  https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/01/nation/new-cdc-study-suggests-covid-19-may-have-been-us-december-2019/

 

HRG

[fuzzymoomoo]

47 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Probably the same article.  https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/01/nation/new-cdc-study-suggests-covid-19-may-have-been-us-december-2019/

 

HRG

Yeah, that's pretty much a carbon copy of it. 

[Decker]

The pile up of cases from almost a week of less reporting of both positive test results and of course deaths from Covid will and is already starting. Yes the reaction is the holiday gatherings and the traveling.... 

 

Then this just a short while ago, two medical professionals one from a LaPorte hospital and one from a Porter hospital discussing the results that very few in the media want to report. 97.2 percent Covid recovery rate for a 4 county reporting system in Indiana. Lake, Porter, LaPorte and St. Joe counties are letting staff know they are doing great work reaching that percentage. Now I`m not sure anyone in the gloom and doom media would want to publish that percentage because the other factor in the equation is... mortality rate... of 2.8 percent.  

 

Then there is the fact, money is ear marked to each facility the minute the paperwork states Covid. Keep them as in patient or set them up as out patient and the money dosen`t care cause its in the bank from the point the paperwork is transmitted to the state and fed`s, 

 

Ok I may be a little skeptical (understatement for sure) but I have cause and reason to be. Family members, listed cause of death on paper was covid, the same family members I helped take care of most of there daily needs for years and knew their medical situations but none of that listed as contributing. But what did I know? Then this will be a history search for some but once again I lived through the nighty news "body counts" on the then always trusted, always correct and always caring and understanding media.  

 

With having fun packed training sessions with the 2nd Army Intel Comm Unit (Victory Thru Knowledge) I learned way back then at a very young age what was reported to HQ was what the Master Sergeant wanted to forward to the NCO, people only new back home about any mortality rate the Army wanted the people to know. That way of operations was over 45 years ago. That is 45 years of getting better at circumventing the facts in our favor and showing how bad off the enemy had it. Today that is a fine art that is mastered by young women and men and applied all over the world. 

 

We may never know the true numbers but. the only numbers that we get will be trying to sell someone's opinion of what is best for the people, under their command. That is the focal point of politics currently. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

8 minutes ago, Decker said:

We may never know the true numbers

I will bet my house on it, especially the death count. Separate those who have died from COVID from those who died with COVID then we can start having an honest conversation about it. The worst thing the government did is financially incentivize hospitals to list cause of death as COVID. scratch that, it's still Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer and a few others I'm forgetting about sticking covid patients in nursing homes and letting the virus run rampant among the most vulnerable people. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by fuzzymoomoo

[akirby]

It wouldn’t surprise me if half of the deaths came from nursing homes/assisted living and its mind boggling that they weren’t better protected.

 

Total deaths will show the real impact regardless of classifications just like they do for bad flu seasons provided you account for the annual increase due to population growth.

 

And it’s almost guaranteed that death rates in the future will drop slightly since most deaths are people who would have probably died from age or underlying conditions over the next several years anyway.

 

But the biggest danger has been overwhelming the medical facilities which did happen in a few areas but not to the extent predicted by some.

[fuzzymoomoo]

22 minutes ago, akirby said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if half of the deaths came from nursing homes/assisted living and its mind boggling that they weren’t better protected.

It's even more mind boggling that those politicians are being hailed as heroes, especially Cuomo. 

 

23 minutes ago, akirby said:

Total deaths will show the real impact regardless of classifications just like they do for bad flu seasons provided you account for the annual increase due to population growth.

 

And it’s almost guaranteed that death rates in the future will drop slightly since most deaths are people who would have probably died from age or underlying conditions over the next several years anyway.

This is why I feel the even more crucial stat within that stat is the demographic spread. Under a certain age the mortality risk just isn't that high, and to act like it is is just disingenuous at best. I know there's long term effects and I'm curious to see the age spread on that too, but if the pharmaceutical industry can come up with a vaccine that fast they can certainly figure out how to treat those if not figure out how to prevent them from showing up in the first place. Seems treating the disease while it's in it's less virulent phase is the key. 
 

35 minutes ago, akirby said:

But the biggest danger has been overwhelming the medical facilities which did happen in a few areas but not to the extent predicted by some.

I still firmly believe that is currently being exaggerated in many cases. 

[Decker]

Lets not forget the hospital ships in two harbors, field hospitals and converted emergency medical facilities put in place and well lets just say never were used. In Pricksters great wisdom of constructing not one but two facilities and converting McCormick Place to just having medical personel in them without patients... but the wave was coming to over whelm the system. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Decker

[fuzzymoomoo]

19 minutes ago, Decker said:

Lets not forget the hospital ships in two harbors, field hospitals and converted emergency medical facilities put in place and well lets just say never were used. In Pricksters great wisdom of constructing not one but two facilities and converting McCormick Place to just having medical personel in them without patients... but the wave was coming to over whelm the system. 

That happened here too. TCF Center (Formerly Cobo Hall) was only ever utilizing something like 10% of the beds they set it up for. It may have been even less than that. The other 2 (Novi expo center and the field house on the UMich campus) weren't ever used. It was a good thing they were set up but not needed but the ballyhooing about it was relentless. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by fuzzymoomoo

[akirby]

The potential need was real and much better to have them and not need them, but the media and some governments <cough>New York<cough> exaggerated the situation.  In GA the media was hyping that Hospitals were full but when you look at the census data in some cases only 10% of the patients were Covid.  And when you point that out to people they say what’s the difference?  The difference is whether drastic actions to reduce covid hospitalizations is necessary or not.

[fuzzymoomoo]

The concern here in Michigan was more the rural hospitals, mostly in the north half of the state. The hospitals in Detroit are always busy so I think a lot of people around here got tired quickly of hearing about them potentially being overrun. That's a typical weekend in most parts of the city. 

[Decker]

Last updated: December 02, 2020, 15:08 GMT

United States

Coronavirus Cases:     14,113,824 

Deaths:                               277,026

Recovered:                     8,338,656

 

 

December 2 (GMT)

Updates

 •5,218 new cases and 47 new deaths in the United States 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Ok if you take into consideration these numbers (remembering all reporting on this subject can have its special interests) doing some in the ball park counting on both fingers and toes... 

Recovery rate is well over the 60ish percent level.

Mortality rate is down in the 1.9ish level. 

 

India media is putting out the daily recovery rate (factual or not.. who knows) but it`s something we here in the land of we know whats best for you media you`ll have to pull teeth out of the pretty talking heads to get that info.... 

[Decker]

GOP Congressman: IT Technician ‘Effectively Wiped’ Election Data From Servers in Fulton County

Georgia secretary of state spokesman: 'Nothing to do with servers being wiped'

 

Opppp`s

Edited December 2, 2020 by Decker

[Decker]

Then the Squad puts the former throne sitter on notice 

 

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/12/02/dems-really-blew-defund-police-rhetoric-says/

 

 

[dfs]

According to the CDC, the 53 reporting stations used many different ways to report Covid-19 infections and deaths.  They asked that the reporting be standardized.  This resulted in many discrepancies in counts.

Hospitals are paid a premium when reimbursement claims list Covid-19.  Consequently, confirmed cases, tests for antibodies (which could have been from months earlier) and merely suspected cases were reported.  What you reward you get more of.
 Once reportIng was “standardized” we see there were on average 2.6 comorbidity issues like liver failure, cancer, lung disease, accidents, etc. many of which could have been the cause of death.

So,  the media saying Over 200,000 died “FROM” Covid-19 is incorrect.  Some number died with the virus, or had it earlier in the year, were suspected to have the virus, or were fabricated to receive a larger reimbursement!

[akirby]

16 minutes ago, dfs said:

According to the CDC, the 53 reporting stations used many different ways to report Covid-19 infections and deaths.  They asked that the reporting be standardized.  This resulted in many discrepancies in counts.

Hospitals are paid a premium when reimbursement claims list Covid-19.  Consequently, confirmed cases, tests for antibodies (which could have been from months earlier) and merely suspected cases were reported.  What you reward you get more of.
 Once reportIng was “standardized” we see there were on average 2.6 comorbidity issues like liver failure, cancer, lung disease, accidents, etc. many of which could have been the cause of death.

So,  the media saying Over 200,000 died “FROM” Covid-19 is incorrect.  Some number died with the virus, or had it earlier in the year, were suspected to have the virus, or were fabricated to receive a larger reimbursement!

Except for one fact.  The number of total deaths each year is fairly consistent with an annual increase due to population increases.  Based on that we should expect about 2.85M deaths for 2020.  Period.  Regardless of cause.  We’re on track for at least 3.1M and could be even higher.  Again, total deaths all causes.  Covid is the only reasonable explanation for the 250K additional deaths.